And after the Japanese design a successor to the Chi-Ha, they can convert their Chi-Has into tank destroyers and SPGs.
Wagner’s Germany: An Axis Victory TL
- Thread starter CrimsonKing
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And after the Japanese design a successor to the Chi-Ha, they can convert their Chi-Has into tank destroyers and SPGs.
Quite; as I recall you mentioned in the past that the Chi-Ha chassis mounting a 7.5cm gun along with a sloped glacis plate would work well as a Japanese version of the Hetzer. With that said, how'd that compare to the Ho-Ro's above?
Oh, and the Ho-Ro actually exists IRL: It's a self-propelled 6-inch artillery piece deployed late in the war.
Very interesting and it was developed from the Chi-Ha to boot. Maybe I should try to come up with another name but then since it was for an alternate timeline, I guess it still works.
I did say a sloped armored TD version of the Chi-Ha would be doable and I believe I posted a pic I did of one too. It would be faster and better armored than the Ho-Ro and have a more powerful gun, ITTL it could even be a copy of a German gun.
True, they could always mount the Pak 40, which they already have available. Speaking of which, could they mass-produce the Pak 40 (assuming they received those 50 pieces and their ammunition around March to April) in sufficient numbers by June?
Hmm, I'm not sure, it might be doable but I think the Pak-40 would be too heavy for the Ho-Ro. Some friends of mine over at the Alt AFV thread stated they believed the Ho-Ro would be just powerful enough to carry the Type-99 77mm cannon and I think the Pak-40 was much heavier (I'll see if I can find stats on them later tonight).
The Pak-40 would still make a fine towed AT gun for the Japanese though and maybe there's another vehicle available that could carry it.
At work.
"All good things come to those who wait."
Which might some times be followed by,
"Please Sir, may I have some more.... ?"
Forgive me for not being completely good and noble while I await the coming of such good things.
"All good things come to those who wait."
Which might some times be followed by,
"Please Sir, may I have some more.... ?"
Forgive me for not being completely good and noble while I await the coming of such good things.
What about your Chi-Ha Tank Destroyer variant? Could it mount the Pak-40?
I think the Pak-40 could work on a TD version of the Chi-Ha but I don't think the Japanese could have it ready in good numbers by summer of 1942.
It could be ready by spring of 43 however.
Hmm...I'm going to assume Japanese strategy in '42 to be as follows: defensive operations both along the border and in-depth along the Mongol-Mengku and Manchu-Soviet border. At the same time, they'll try an armored thrust to cut off Primorsky Krai to the north, and sweep down south along the coast to Vladivostok, coupled with flank action by (preferably motorized) infantry along their landward flank. An attack from Karafuto into Sakhalin will probably be launched at this time.
The Japanese defensive to the west would probably succeed, though they probably will be forced back from the border. They would however, have ample space to trade for time, and without a war in the Pacific and China the reserves and supplies to maintain an effective defense in depth. The Japanese should also be able to achieve and maintain air superiority, and naval superiority is given. I'll try and look into the machines of the IJAAF at the time and see if I can give a detailed hypothesis based on it. The hardest parts of the campaign for Japan will be along Primorsky Krai, as the ShinHoTo Chi-Ha would still be outranged (but not outgunned) by the BT-7. The T-34 would be especially troublesome, but there should be few of those in the Far East to begin with: most of them if not all would have been stationed in the European heartland to face the German threat. The Ho-Ro would be very useful here, to break through Soviet lines and allow the ShinHoTo Chi-Has to get to the rear and flanks of the Soviet armor: head-on, I'm not confident that even a high-velocity 4.7cm round could reliably punch through a BT-7's armor.
Sakhalin is the easiest. Vladivostok will be a tough nut to crack, but if the Japanese concentrate their airpower and their battleships they could take the city before the year ends. If not, they'll be bogged down in winter war in the streets, though I doubt Vladivostok will stand indefinitely ala Stalingrad/Moscow. It will fall by spring or summer of '43 at the latest.
In '43, Japan will maintain defensive actions along the Mengku-Mongol border, though Yamashita might have to push out from the pre-war Manchu-Soviet border against his better judgment by IGHQ into the Trans-Amur. He might also attempt a two-pronged attack on Khabarovs Krai, via a push north from Primorsk and landings further north. By this point the Chi-Nu might be available in enough numbers for at least a one proper armored spearhead, and the Chi-Ha Tank Destroyer variant would probably fulfill a Stug/heavy tank's role breaking through Soviet lines/blunting enemy armored counterattacks better than the Ho-Ro would.
After that, the Japanese would then settle into a full defensive, from the Mengku-Mongol border in the west, through the Trans-Amur to Primorsk and Khabarovsk in the east. The Chi-Nu and ShinHoTos would probably be better served in this phase by being kept in reserve for a counterattack, with the Ho-Ros and Chi-Ha Tank Destroyers being used in delaying actions to bog down Soviet counterattacks and leaving them vulnerable to Japanese counterattack.
BTW, @CrimsonKing, have the Germans begun strategic bombing yet? IIRC, the Germans would have enough He-177s and Fw-187s by June to start a strategic bombing campaign. Or are they waiting to secure Soviet airspace further before sending the large and vulnerable bombers in?
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Sounds very plausible to me. As for the Japanese 4.7cm gun I think it could penetrate the sides and rear of the BT-7 but not the frontal armor, the Ho-Ro's 75 cal. gun would have no problems though penetrating the BT-7's armor form any angle IMO.
BT-7 armor is paper, maximum 13 mm, and the 4.7 cm can pierce at close range up to 76 mm and maximum range 30mm. Vs the T-34 is another story, it's not a reliable AT gun and vs the Kv-1 absolutely useless. If you want a higher performing gun able to dealing with T-34 and Kv-1 without the development of a dedicated AT gun, you need to use the the Type 90 75mm field gun that also had an APHE round with "decent" performance with 90 mm penetration at 100 mm for the tank variant.
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I didn't think the BT-7 had good armor and felt the 4.7cm would be more then effective against it.
The really interesting dilemma that faces both sides is offense or defense. While I agree that the suggested strategy of "Hold in Place" would be effective, I don't think that Japan's leaders want to just sit around and wait for Germany to win the war for them! I think they will be aggressive. But they don't have much in the way of mechanized punch and they would have a short logistical tail.
On the Soviet side you have a worse situation. You have a 2000 to 2500 mile defensive border to protect only with what forces you start with. I would seriously doubt that the east will receive any replacements or supplies. They're on their own! The Soviet commander has to be thinking to deny the Japanese any decisive battles and conserve his strength. That may require large scale retreats in order to shorten his defensive lines and create reserve divisions.
So the big question is how hard will the Japanese push and then how hard will the Soviets push back.
The really interesting dilemma that faces both sides is offense or defense. While I agree that the suggested strategy of "Hold in Place" would be effective, I don't think that Japan's leaders want to just sit around and wait for Germany to win the war for them! I think they will be aggressive. But they don't have much in the way of mechanized punch and they would have a short logistical tail.
On the Soviet side you have a worse situation. You have a 2000 to 2500 mile defensive border to protect only with what forces you start with. I would seriously doubt that the east will receive any replacements or supplies. They're on their own! The Soviet commander has to be thinking to deny the Japanese any decisive battles and conserve his strength. That may require large scale retreats in order to shorten his defensive lines and create reserve divisions.
So the big question is how hard will the Japanese push and then how hard will the Soviets push back.
Actually that is more or less something the Japanese came up with IOTL and I modified in light of butterflies ITTL. Prior to Khalkin Gol, Japan's war plans for Siberia were more ambitious: first and second phase operations aimed at taking Mongolia, the Trans-Amur, Primorsk, and Sakhalin. Third phase operation north to Khabarovsk and Lake Baikal, and fourth the entirety of East Siberia.
After Khalkin Gol, the Japanese (surprise, surprise) wised up, with a modified war plan prepared in 1941 aimed at a defensive to the west while taking the coastal regions - Primorsk and Khabarovsk - before pivoting west and defeating the remaining Soviet forces which would have bogged down against their defenses. The problem with that plan though, was the lack of reserves in depth, not without overly weakening their forces in China and Indochina, and was ultimately shelved when the embargoes slammed down.
Here though, the war in China is over, and while Japan has plenty of troops in SE Asia, most of those are in Malaya with probably only token ground forces in Indochina, Myanmar, and the Dutch East Indies. More aircraft and ships probably, but the greater part of Japan's standing might - even with the demobilization of all units raised since 1937 - can be mustered fully against the Soviets. And that doesn't count reserves as yet to be called up.
Anyway...as I said earlier, let's talk about Japanese aircraft.
First, let's have air superiority. The primary Japanese air superiority fighter during the late 30s was the Ki-27. It's your typical Japanese fighter: lightly-armored, lacking safety measures like self-sealing fuel tanks and fire extinguishers, but fast and maneuverable for all that. It had also average armament, with only 2 7.7mm machine guns. All in all, not bad for the 30s, but under-performing even by the end of the decade.
However, from 1939 onward the Ki-27 was already getting replaced, with a new model entering production, though apparently the Ki-27 remained in service in China and less priority areas outside of the Pacific theater. Its successor was the Ki-43. The Ki-43 was the primary Japanese (IJAAF) air superiority fighter during the Pacific War, i.e. their Me-109, but it's also a typical Japanese fighter for the age: lightly-armored, no safety features, average armament (2x 7.7mm machine guns), but very fast and nimble. Deadly in skilled hands, but in a long war, skilled pilots are a premium that cannot be afforded. Though, ITTL, between much-improved Axis cooperation and one other factor I'll bring up later, the Ki-43 can be properly succeeded by an OTL design that could be called Japan's Fw-190.
The Ki-61: it looks like a 109, doesn't it? Apparently it was built with German influence, and indeed used a Daimler-Benz DB601Aa engine. It's not your typical Japanese fighter at all: it's well-armored, features safety systems, and well-armed, with 2 each of 20mm cannons and 12.7mm machine guns. And while less nimble than the Ki-43, it's apparently just as fast.
It was supposed to be the Ki-43's successor in 1942, but technical difficulties on Japan's part - caused by rushing the plane into service apparently (which probably contributed to/is why it was never modified for tropical operations despite Japanese technicians knowing that was the theater - New Guinea - the Ki-61 would have been deployed to) - meant that it never completely succeeded the Ki-43.
With that said, development on the Ki-61 began in 1939, when Japan acquired the aforementioned Daimler-Benz engines. Here though, ITTL Japan received aircraft inline engine technology along with advanced radar in 1937, in exchange for giving Germany the Type-95 torpedo. Assuming the same amount of development time (~3 years) plus no Pacific War to rush things, a properly-developed Ki-61 could enter mass production by 1940. Even assuming the limitations of Japan's industry, enough Ki-61s could be produced to effectively supplement the Ki-43s during the short war in SE Asia against the British and the Commonwealth. Given expansion of Japanese industry in 1942 (IIRC the ECM are giving the Japanese industrial development aid in exchange for Experimental Submarine No. 71), and improved access to raw materials from SE Asia, the Ki-61 could be Japan's primary air superiority fighter over Siberia, with the Ki-43 relegated to a reserve/rear echelon role. Even taking combat losses into account, the Ki-61 could be Japan's sole air superiority fighter by 1944, though by then Japan should be introducing its ultimate air superiority design of WWII: the Ki-84.
The Ki-84 is heavily-armored, featured extensive safety systems, heavily armed with two 12.7mm machine guns and 20mm cannons each, and for all that is fast and nimble enough to not just engage American heavy fighters but can also reach strategic bombers in flight. In fact, its weaknesses are not the plane's fault: poor fuel, poor pilots and tech crews, and a high-maintenance engine. Poor fuel is what you get when your refineries keep getting wrecked by strategic bombing, and poor pilots are what you get when you're worn down by attrition (hopefully ITTL the Japanese - with increased Axis cooperation - get influenced enough to train pilots in large numbers). High maintenance is what you get for an excellent engine (the Nakajima Homare), and one that can be covered for by training large numbers of tech crews, though this is not as easy as training pilots. However, for a war of average length, Japan should be able to hold out against attrition of their skilled personnel. Going back to the Ki-84, seeing as it entered mass production in 1943, it can become Japan's primary air superiority fighter by 1945, though the Ki-61 would still probably see some action assuming war erupts during that year.
Moving on, we have medium bombers. Japan's primary medium bomber during the late 30s was the Ki-21. It's also a typical Japanese design: it had a good bomb load, fast and long-ranged, but was lightly-armored, had no safety systems or defensive systems, and even had an unreliable life support system. Though some of these problems were corrected by various refits over the years, I think it had better be retired and focus given to newer designs.
The first of those is the Ki-49, introduced in 1941. It was well-armored, and had safety systems, with numerous defensive armament: five 7.7mm machine guns and a 20mm cannon. However it was slow, and carried only a small bomb load. It was eventually refitted after an initially-disappointing run in New Guinea, improving its armor and safety systems, and even replacing three 7.7mm machine guns with 12.7mm machine guns. The refit also replaced the Ki-49's engines, increasing its speed and bomb load.
Now while I don't think the Ki-49 could be introduced earlier, experience in the SE Asian theater coupled with German influence could be enough for any Ki-49s committed to Siberia be the refitted version. This can be done, what with the war in China over and additional raw materials available.
It's successor is the Ki-67, introduced in OTL in 1944. It's fast, mobile, well-armored and armed, with good range and bomb load. It can however, be introduced earlier, as much like the Ju-88 the original design called for giving the Ki-67 dive-bombing capability. Remove that, and the Ki-67's development could go much quicker. I'm not sure if that should be done though: while dive-bombing ability for the He-177 was insane, the Ju-88's versatility may have been because of its reinforced fuselage coming from its dive-bombing ability. The Ki-67 may need the same for its attributes.
For light bombers, Japan during the late 1930s actually had three: the Ki-30, the Ki-32, and the Ki-51. All of them were actually what you'd expect for ground attack aircraft in the 30s: fast, capable of dive-bombing, and in fact could carry a heavier bomb load than the Ju-87. With that said, their light gunnery - all three were armed with 7.7mm machine guns though the Ki-51 was later refitted with 12.7mm machine guns - meant they were unsuited for anti-armor purposes. The Ki-51 can be refitted with under-slung anti-tank cannons, though Japan would be better served by speeding up (but not rushing) development of the Ki-102. Originally rolling out in 1944, it would be very helpful if it could be rolled out in 1943, even if the Ki-51 is refitted (the Ki-30 and Ki-32 were both phased out in 1941). Originally designed as a long-range heavy fighter, the Ki-102 would be very useful as a dedicated anti-tank/ground-support aircraft instead, given its 5.7 cm gun and two 20mm cannons. It could also carry two 250g bombs.
Japan never really developed heavy fighters, apart from the aforementioned Ki-102, though given Japan's lack of proper heavy bombers they don't really need them.
Now, while I'm no expert on the IJN's ships - there's so many overlapping classes and generational designs that I've given up on working out ideas on modernizing the IJN in detail for now - in terms of aircraft the Zero could and should be kept in use for now. While a carrier variant of the Mitsubishi J2M could be made, I think Japan's naval priority right now should be shoring up its logistics and ASW doctrines and technology. Not too hard, the Germans gave them sonar in exchange for the Nakajima Homare engine, and their interest in the Battle of the Atlantic born of the Germans' Japanese-derived Long Knife Torpedoes mean that Japan finally understands how critical logistics are for an island nation are. I'm not expecting them to be experts any time soon, but so long as war doesn't get prolonged even a modest improvement in their ASW and logistics would go a long way. Enough - so long as there's no Pearl Harbor attack ITTL - that the isolationist lobby in the US would recover ground after a war starts to grow longer and bloodier and press for a 'peace with honor', something Wagner - who is the de facto leader of the Axis - is ironically trusted to hold true to. I'll go back to that one later.
Going back to aircraft, while the IJN's priority should be on ASW and logistics (and more pilots), Japan should work to get a carrier variant of the Kawanishi N1K-J. This would delay its development somewhat, but it would be delayed anyway from its OTL introduction in 1943 since it had been rushed into service. And the delay is worth it if the N1K-J can be operated from carriers: it's well-armored, features safety systems, and well-armed with four 20mm cannons. It can carry bombs, but that's not really needed for a dedicated carrier fighter and the ability could be worked out of the design. It didn't really work out as an interceptor against heavy bombers, but that's not really something you expect from a carrier fighter. Otherwise, considering the OTL N1K-J could easily match Hellcats and Corsairs, as a successor to the Zero the N1K-J should work out very well.
Japan should also work on getting the D4Y into service much quicker than IOTL, but there's no need to rush. Surprisingly, the relatively-outdated D3A dive-bomber was still serviceable as late as 1944. Ditto for the B6N and its predecessor, the B5N torpedo plane.
Finally we come to the IJN's ground-based bombers, the G3M and G4M. In three words: they're a mess. Seriously, they should just scrap the designs and develop naval bomber variants of the Ki-49 or the Ki-67 instead. The G3M and G4M are flying deathtraps, and despite their vaunted range and bomb load they're a waste of time, resources, and manpower to build and fly.
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Well, that's a long reply. Next, I'll think up what a peace with honor with America would look like, for Japan and Europe both, along with the possible fate of the tottering British Empire.
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^ Very interesting, the only thing I would add is that the Japanese should get the Germans to sell them license to build the MG-151 20mm cannon and later 30mm canons for mounting in the nose of the Ki-61 and its successors for improved firepower.
As Adolf Galland once said to Hitler when asked what was better "two cannons in the wings or one in the nose?" Galland's answer "better all three".
As Adolf Galland once said to Hitler when asked what was better "two cannons in the wings or one in the nose?" Galland's answer "better all three".
At work.
Awe... no love for the Ki-64? Melding of Japanese and German ideas that it was.
Not that there ever seems to be any love for the 'Evaporative surface cooler' technology.
Edit: Ah, I see it was only ever a prototype.
Awe... no love for the Ki-64? Melding of Japanese and German ideas that it was.
Not that there ever seems to be any love for the 'Evaporative surface cooler' technology.
Edit: Ah, I see it was only ever a prototype.
I did say Ki-61 and its successors.
How about a Japanese version of the Dornier Do-335 instead?
The fact that the China war had ended does give Japan the ability to put more men in the field against the USSR. I think they could gain control of the air with the equipment they had. The air advantage they had would not necessarily be able to effectively deal with the USSR's armor. Also Japan seemed very slow to respond to "operational surprises" in the field. Unlike the Germans, British and the US, Japan struggled to quickly manufacture effective counter measures when they encountered a problem on the battlefield.
If I were the Soviet commander (with prior approval from Stalin) I would pull my forces back to as far as I thought the Japanese would follow me (past their logistical string) and then hammer them.
That would be a good strategy but unfortunately Stalin would most likely not give permission to do so, IOTL Stalin ordered large numbers of troops to be stationed on the borders of Eastern Europe, this bit him in the ass big time when Barbarossa took place.