Some special guests in Samarqand court.Make me thought of from Dnieper to Ob,western of Eurasia Steppe has ready become domain of Jochids.So what the fate of eastern,the Mongolia Steppe?
About the reply,I think maybe the new Golden Horde still obscure.
Well if I told you all of my plans it will be a spoiler 😜. Fate of Mongol steppe will be decided by Timur's campaign but it will more or less be under Timurids (or some weird Chinese mongol hybrid dynasty stemming from them but nevertheless muslim).

And when the tables turn it will be jochids who will be the overlords of whoever controlling the area and will try to preserve it as a bulwark against China ( USSR to Mongolia example, maybe too cliche but this is likely as Timur's huge empire is bound to split no matter how capable his successors are, they are not Timur and will lack his charisma and ruthlessness )
 
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The grand alliance
Eternal Kingdom: Rider from the sky
Riyad Muqaddim Al Hussein

Lonely Crescent
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The Marinid Sultanate of Morocco was a power in decline as Nasrids toyed with the Sultans. Muhammad V of Grenada replaced Ahmad Al Mustansir with Faris Al Mutawakkil in 786 (1384). The power struggle going on in the Maghreb was further aggravated by Christian pressures upon the kingdoms. Grenada, with a relative stability were wreaking havoc in the nearby royal houses by influencing pretenders against each other. But under the rule of Faris, Morocco entered a new era in overseas relationship.During the Portugese crisis, Faris extrnded his helping hand to the embattled king John I Aviz which the latter gladly accepted as the English were reluctant about sending troops till 786. Morocco couldn't help much but every soldier and weapon counted against the mighty Castilians and their French allies. In 787, a group of Moroccan mercenaries participated in the battle of Aljubarrota on the side of Portugal against the Castilian pretender. The battle was a pyrrhic victory for Portugal and their allies, the English as John I Aviz was injured ( died 4 months later) amongst other high profile casualties. The Moroccan mercenaries numbering 200 would prove their worth in the next battle of Merida which resulted in another Castilian defeat . This was one of the biggest achievements of Faris as he tried to establish himself as an independent ruler free of Nasrid dominance which was a traditional Castilian ally. But the disabled sultan would be killed in 788(1386) by the resurgent Ahmed Al Mustansir. Strangely enough, he kept his relations with Portugal rather cordial. Exchange of gifts between the rulers culminated in greater trade activities between the Kingdoms. Portugal was still at loggerheads with Spain as the latter kept most of Altenjo region in the Treaty of Santarem(785) due to the ensuing instability amongst the Portuguese nobility owing to crowning of a child monarch Afonso I.

A new dynamic with the Nasrids would emerge in 801 as Yusuf III, brother of Muhammad VII of Grenada escaped Iberia in disguise and ended up in Morocco. The Nasrid ruler was eager to get his hands on his absconding sibling and thus requested his return. This was outrightly refused by the Sultan Abu Faris Abdul Aziz II prompting the Grenadian ruler to threaten war. But it was an empty threat as war with Castile was brewing on the Horizon. It was decided that Yusuf would remain in Fez in exchange for 4000 gold coins annually. Yusuf would remain in Morocco. This arrangement worked until 811( 1407), when disgruntled officials would murder Muhammad VII in the light of being defeated by Castile. Yusuf III would gain the throne and request for peace which was ratified in treaty of Treaty of Seville in Dhul Qadh 811(April 1408). The new ruler set about improving ties with his exile home in Morocco which was strengthened by a joint invasion of Tlemcen emirate in 813. The Berber forces withered in face of Moroccan and Grenadian artillery which had been introduced in early 800s as a result of alliance with the Portuguese. A marriage alliance was also created between the the two states. The several tribes which wandered around the Atlas were encouraged to settle down. Few tribes listened at first but after some cajoling from vizier many Berber tribes like Hintata settled between Marrakesh and a newly built coastal Portuguese commercial enclave named Aguer. Though tribes at first were hostile to foreign Nazarenes walking around freely, gradually things were brought to a calm after several unfortunate incidents(one of them resulting in capture of some merchant's daughter as a bride). The tribes were given cash not to raid the settlements, the Moroccans had extra revenue which was a result of flourishing trade in their ports. An administrative and taxation overhaul was done in late 814 by a wattasid vizier. The Spanish were suspicious of Moroccan relations with Grenada but stayed quiet for now. It seemed that all would be positive for the newly centralized Morocco which was gradually becoming a well regarded regional power in its own right.

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9 Jumada Awwal 801 ( 17 January 1399)
Al-Qahira, Mameluke sultanate
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Nasir Ad Din Faraz looked at the emissary from Baghdad. The long road had an impact on him and it appeared like he would collapse any moment from exhaustion. The sand and the dust on his dress paint a rather comical version but the sultan doesn't smile.

"Honorable.....Sultan. This news from.....Sultan Jalayir. The forces of Timur Gurkhan have triumphed in Hind. They are now in Samarqand." he paused and gestured for a drink.

Sultan Nasir Ad Din ordered an attendant to give him a whole pot of water which was the thirsty emissary snatched like a hawk and drank like a camel.

"It seems that he can turn to us any moment now. Have the envoys from Bayezid Yildrim sent any messages yet?" he asked his younger brother Izzeddin.

"You know about the last message my sultan. Other than that we haven't received any so far." Izzeddin replied.

"Hmm, I have no doubts on the sincerity of the sultan of Baghdad but it is that half heretic Kara Yusuf I'm worried about. Timur may only be satisfied with the Persian lands he's already got. Ahmed Jalayir is playing a double game brilliantly but why is Kara Yusuf hesitating to ask for our help? I think he has designs on Perisa including Baghdad. Which is why he keeps sending emissaries to Turks while ignoring us."

"The Ottoman Turks are not playing with us I believe since they have answered every one of our messages and even proposed a marriage alliance."
Izzeddin replied.

"You seem to forget that Ottomans proposed a military alliance with us and a marriage alliance with the KHALIFA!"

"But their special envoys are coming, let's see what they have in store."


Footsteps alerted the men to the presence of another in the room, a panting guard entered who seemed nervous about something.

"Sultan! the Ottoman envoys, they are here!" he exclaimed.

"Good, what is the problem then?" Izzeddin asked in a surprised voice.

"They have a Shehzade amongst them."

The brothers gawked at this revealing. They quickly rushed out of their palace and joined a horde of other officials.

There on the road, upon a dark stallion sat the head of the Ottoman team.

"Greetings, Shehzade Muhammad, it seems that your sudden arrival has caught us off guard. If you tipped us about your arrival earlier we'd have organized a grandiose reception." spoke Sultan Nasir Ad Din.

"No need for that my Sultan for this is a secret mission. My father already caught two Greek* spies snucking out into Anatolia. Who knows where they were headed? So it was decided that I would accompany the envoy team but in disguise. But one of my retinue here addressing me as 'hazratleri' gave my presence away. Anyways, good that I'm here now, safely." Mehmed replied

The Ottoman prince now joined his hosts as they walked to their destined residences. It seems that rise of Timur brought all powers in the west together in a desperate but rather disparate alliance.

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And, it happens. Ottoman- Mamluke alliance and the arrival of Prince Mehmed to Cairo. Wonder what can he do......... Also a new Islamic power rising in the west in the name of Morocco. But can they hold the tide of Reconquista about to sweep over Iberia?

* sorry Byzantines, you can't send your emissaries to Timur telling him that Kara Yusuf is in Ottoman refuge.

A rather short-ish update but soon we'll see how Timur launches his massive campaign.
 
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Dragon's rival
Rabiul Awwal 802 ( November 1400)
Sarai, Golden Horde

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Image: Shenker Orda (blue army), first infantry force of the Golden horde


As snow fell on the large pavement of the Khan's palace, 7000 troops in striking blue uniform and mail armor gathered. The environment was tense, a bit. All troops were aged between 14 to 25. There was another common thing, all were on foot. There were various ethnicities, Rus, Nogai, Kipchak, Oirat, Uighur and even from farthest corner Khanate, the Yukats.

A grim looking Makmut Khan sat on a fur throne, flanked by two guards. Sound of hooves were unable to distract him from the steely gaze which he maintained upon the amassed troops.

The rider dismounted and bowed to the Khan, Makmut now turned his eyes to the new arrival and his gaze softened a bit. The newcomer now turned back to face the troops. His light brown beard was dotted with falling snow and he pulled off the sword from his waist.


"Troops of the Khan, embodiment of Allah's justice in the earth, draw your weapons!" The young man exclaimed. Then as if to stop the sky from falling upon them, the gathered men drew their swords, lances, pikes whatever they had been equipped with.

"May the blessings of Prophet Muhammad be upon you, O mujahedeen of the true path. Our will is like the iron and our resolve like the midday sun!

We don't drop our weapons nor do we walk away from an enemy, the ones who leave their places in the battle, how unfortunate are they!

Be it known to the world that we are ready to fight to death for defending our Deen and Khanate, for the standard of the faithful shall never be lowered!

The Kuffar and the munafiqs shall taste our fury, how unfortunate of them!

O corrupted followers of the righteous Issa, O enemies of Allah and the prophet Muhammad!

Our blades are bared and our intentions, clear!

Allah forbid! If we ever stray from the path of the ghazwat, may our heads roll on the dusty earth!

Allahu Akbar!"
The Rus man finished as the troops repeated after him, sentences and all.

Makmut now looked at the leading man in red dress with pride as he commanded the troops but he was not the only one.

A bit far away, from the window of a particular room in the palace, a young girl aged 15 looked longingly at the procession that was going.

"Ah, Shahzedi! watching the new force on its maiden parade?" a voice caught Qizil hatun off guard as she quickly backed away from the window.

"Noorbanu! Don't sneak up on me like that! You almost gave me a heart attack!" the princess said to her attendant.

"I'm sorry Shahzedi, I never knew I could ever be the cause of your thumping heart, that place has been taken by Tuman beg Samiu'n, right?"

"Ugh, you are unbelievable. My father is there too. What makes you..you think I was watching Samiu'n?"
the princess's cheek was becoming red with embarrassment as if to validate her nomenclature.

"Beg your pardon Shahzedi. But I've seen too many girls of your age and how they act when they have eye for someone." Noorbanu replied as she accompanied the Shazedi to sit upon the carpet.

"And you're stuttering too." she added.

"I did not!" Qizil hatun exclaimed now. She had to get this blame off her!

"Yes you did. I lived in Soltaniyeh your grace. Saw a lot of things, including how daring females can be to get the ones they love." Noorbanu spoke in an all knowing tone. true, the 40 year old had seen many things in her life, including scenarios she wanted to forget.

"Right, maybe I do. But will my father approve? Samiu'n rarely ever comes by and I can't show him any hints for he is always accompanied by others."

"You can send letters, Shahzedi."

"Maybe, but that's too risky. Again thanks for your suggestion Noorbanu."

"You're welcome Shazedi. May Ahura Mazda grant you good fortune."
the attendant said as she fondly looked at the young girl. If her daughter was alive she would be her age. She sighed and went back to her work. Some memories should not be brought up for the sake of sanity.

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Timur's invasion of Mongolia

In 801 (1399), Timur sent a punitive expedition to Moghulistan under Mirza Umar Sheikh. He succeeded in subduing the Khan Shams I Jahan. A marriage alliance between daughters of the Moghul Khan and Pir Muhammad and Iskendar(sons of Mirza Umar Sheikh) was established and the Moghulistan Khanate was absorbed into the ever growing Timurid empire.
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Image: Timurid Empire in 802 AH.

Now Timur sought to influence the throne of Northern Yuan. The current Khan, Orug Temur was unpopular with the lesser khans. Aided by the Oirat leader Mahamu and Mongol noble Arughtai and with the direct military assistance from Mirza Umar Sheikh, Kublaid Bunyashiri Khan was able to capture Karakorrum in Muharram 805( August 1402). The absconding Yuan Khan fled to eastern Mongolia. But his flight would awake another giant, the Ming empire. Yongle emperor Zhu Di sent ultimatums to Bunyashiri to subdue to Ming rule. The reply to the ultimatum was sent not by the Yuan Khan but by his backer Umar Sheikh, claiming that 'armies from Mesoptemia to Transoxiana would lay waste to China' if he futher issued such hostile letters. As Yongle was dealing with a pretender in Jingnan, he was unable to do anything but replied with a harsh response where he swore to make the womenfolk of the Turko-mongol leaders his court's entertainers( mimicking the threat of Mongols to Chinese centuries earlier ). Umar Sheikh sent emissaries to his father Timur who was traveling to Almaliq with Shahrukh Mirza after the latter's victory over Turks in Northern Iraq.
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Image: Bunyashiri Khan, Timurid puppet of Northern Yuan Dynasty

In Dhul Qadh 805 (May 1403), Timur reached Almaliq and wintered there. He soon sent emissaries to Ming empire demanded that they leave the Yuan or face his wrath. The Yongle emperor decided to use trick and idle away time as he exchanged emissaries with Timur. He even proposed Timur to carve up the Yuan dominion between them as a ruse. But Timur Gurigan, burning with the fervor of 'jihad against polytheists' and envisioning himself as the 'restorer of Genghis khan's kingdom' refused. The Ming knew war was brewing and they started mobilising after Jingnan rebellion was over. The Yongle emperor was confident of his troops but he knew he had to hurry or Timur would gain an upper hand. The Chinese forces were hastily mobilised and sent northwards in 2 armies. In Muharram 806 (July 1403), Timur marched towards Ming China with a massive force of 1,30,000 army and allied Mongols. His intervention in China would change the geopolitics in the region for centuries to come......

(From 'Eternal kingdom: Rider from the sky' by Riyad Muqaddam Al Hussein)

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And so here it is, Timur finally marches on to China! Will he be able to restore the Empire of Genghis Khan as he dreams? Stay tuned....

Also I have edited the previous update. I'm surprised no one noticed how I butterflied the 'illustrious generation' of Portugal by killing off John Aviz before his marriage with Philippa of Lancaster. Meh, I butterflied the Mughals, others is beggars description 😅.

We also have the coronation of new recruits in Golden horde infantry with Samiu'n the Rus as their commander. The big difference between Onchin Kus and janissaries is appearant here as the former is a recruitment criteria whilst the latter is combative criteria. So many emotions in the first piece huh? Noorbanu is a Zorostrian sold as a slave to Tatars after Timurid invasion of Persia.



 
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Yongle vs Timur you said? Wow it will be a battle for century. The cream of Persia & central Asia vs Ming at their peak can't wait what will happen. Still even if Timur successfully secure Mongolia, marching into China is another matter but we will see. And of course he is not exactly young anymore.

China aside, Mongolia that relatively united and stay in contact with western khanate and the wider muslim world will have interesting repercussion down the line. Northern Asia history will be very different to be sure.
 
Yongle vs Timur you said? Wow it will be a battle for century. The cream of Persia & central Asia vs Ming at their peak can't wait what will happen. Still even if Timur successfully secure Mongolia, marching into China is another matter but we will see. And of course he is not exactly young anymore.

China aside, Mongolia that relatively united and stay in contact with western khanate and the wider muslim world will have interesting repercussion down the line. Northern Asia history will be very different to be sure
Yeah, his lifespan might slightly be increased here but definitely not more than one year. And Ming used a lot of gunpowder weapons but let's see how Timur manages it. He has primitive artillery too (remember Moscow 😉? )

Mongolia is united but I have plans for Oirats. Despite being a muslim (nominally) Mahamu may try to give Timur some pain in the worst possible time (when he's deep inside China besieging some city lol) because he hates when the Yuan khan slips away from his grasp and of course Ming cash! If that happens, Allah protect the Oirats......

One thing is sure, no matter what happens to other areas, Timurid dynasty is in Mongolia and Xinjiang to stay (spoilers😈)
 
Well Northern Asia history will be very interesting and very original to booth. Otl for lack of the better word is just Russia acted as space filling empire and there is not many tl that explore non Russia Northern Asia.

If i can have my prediction for a bit about Northern Asia & Siberia:
- Barring some significant change, various tribes and people of Siberia will be influenced by Tatar realm. In time they will be part of wider Tatar cultural sphere.

- Due to different nature of Tatar state and its priority compared to Russian Tsardom if Golden Horde expand east it will be done more slowly or they just contend to extract tribute from time to time. This in turn will allow various Siberian Tribes to maybe coalesced into more complex state. If not that, some Tatar adventurer/exile/offshoot create state that is mixed of Tatar & Siberian ala Sibir Khanate. It is not unusual for steppe people to incorporate others into their tribe or confederation.

- With Mongolia (at least the ruling class) is Islamized, sooner or later some tribes of the north will convert to gain favor/advantage/etc. This in turn will give them advantage in administration and trade and goes in hand with the rise of more complex state in Siberia. For the school of thought it will be Hanafi, since Hanafi school is the one who have most contact with them. Although that said many of these Siberian Islam will be likely folk Islam with Othordoxy usually come (sometime much) later.

- Unlike other places mention above, Manchuria is more closely and Influenced by Sinosphere and The Eastern Mongol is less influenced by Tatar realm to really affect them. Although some influence from the west is still possible, but for the most part they will be more closer to Sinosphere than Tatar Realm.

Well Northern Asia in this tl will likely consist of many different states rather than one giant state like otl. Forgive me for very long post but the possibilities of very original take about Northern Asia is excited me most.

Edit: Minor nitpick
 
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Well Northern Asia history will be very interesting and very original to booth. Otl for lack of the better word is just Russia acted as space filling empire and there is not many tl that explore non Russia Northern Asia.

If i can have my prediction for a bit about Northern Asia & Siberia:
- Barring some significant change, various tribes and people of Siberia will be influenced by Tatar realm. In time they will be part of wider Tatar cultural sphere.

- Due to different nature of Tatar state and its priority compared to Russian Tsardom if Golden Horde expand west it will be done more slowly or they just contend to extract tribute from time to time. This in turn will allow various Siberian Tribes to maybe coalesced into more complex state. If not that, some Tatar adventurer/exile/offshoot create state that is mixed of Tatar & Siberian ala Sibir Khanate. It is not unusual for steppe people to incorporate others into their tribe or confederation.
The Sibir is already a sanjak in the Golden horde, a bit backwater and very large. But the cultural sphere is true.

You explained the scenario in North Asia more or less for the next 3 centuries. But after that, Golden horde (or whatever new name it gets) will expand east. They want lucrative silk route trade to be in their hands and also there is rise of Fur trade. But it is unlikely that they will pass the Varkhoyansk range until 19th century(lacking the expansive mentality of Russians and submissive nature of the tribes inhabiting the area). So even after reaching the pacific, there will be large area left. I have speculations on who will colonize it. They are less likely to get involved in western politics unless their close neighbors are involved. The collapse of Timurid power in Persia in early 16th century will draw their attention towards east. Before that, expect a healthy amount of meddling in Poland-Lithuania and Hungary from them. I have no plans for westward expansion for golden horde further than Moldavia, which will connect them by land with the Ottomans.
- With Mongolia (at least the ruling class) is Islamized, sooner or later some tribes of the north will convert to gain favor/advantage/etc. This in turn will give them advantage in administration and trade and goes in hand with the rise of more complex state in Siberia. For the school of thought it will be Hanafi, since Hanafi school is the one who have most contact with them. Although that said many of these Siberian Islam will be likely folk Islam with Othordoxy usually come (sometime much) later.
Correct on the religious school and the nice mention of Syncretic Islam of Siberia but there will be major migration of Oirats due to reasons I will not disclose( yeah, go ahead shoot me) westward. But many will remain and convert due to the factors which you mentioned.
Unlike other places mention above, Manchuria is more closely and Influenced by Sinosphere and The Eastern Mongol is less influenced by Tatar realm to really affect them. Although some influence from the west is still possible, but for the most part they will be more closer to Sinosphere than Tatar Realm.
I have yet to decide what to do with Jurchen and other Manchu tribes. It is possible that to create a seperate political entity from the muslim Mongols, they choose a religion already existing in the area or another Abrahmic religion(Nestorian Jurchen anyone?) or even a seperate sect of Islam ( ala Bulgaria and Eastern Romans). Regardless of that, we have yet to see if the Timurid/Yuan state will expand eastward or not. Even if they are able to cut off the Chinese by land, the Ming can always use their massive naval expertise to influence Northern tribes and beyond! But again whether the Ming will embark upon Naval expedition like OTL with a moderately strong Mongol state at their north is another thing.
 
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I really like having this discussion and speculation. If i may speculate more, I think for the most part sanjak beyond ural will mostly autonomous not too different to the like of North Africa Province of the Ottoman due to remoteness and backwater nature of the area. Next I believe much day to day administration in the area will be in the hand of local chieftain and notable with the governor either selected among chief who happen to be the top of the pack at the moment or largely ceremonial appointed governor from Saray. Of course this may change in the future with advancement of Technology and whatnot to allow more direct control.

Social wise like berber and bedouin tribes in the Ottoman empire, they will be required to swear loyalty to the Khan but otherwise independent on their own. I also can see some tribes from the west of ural migrate to Siberia in advent of centralization in Golden Horde proper to avoid the Khan authority.

Manchuria I think will be likely than not to be still influenced by Chinese cultural sphere even without direct land border this is more true especially with stronger Yuan in the area. The Ming will likely cultivate them as possible allies against the Mongol and the Jurchen will likely do the same if they feel threatened by the Mongol. Since the Mongol not control the sea there is no way for them to do anything about it. Religion wise for them it is still up in the air with my bet it is more likely something Sinosphere related (Buddhism, Taoism) rather abrahamic barring Sunni Islam. Since Ming policy effectively eradicate those communities. Well even if Ming not directly influenced them there is still Joseon Korea (Ming Tributary & part of sinosphere) to consider.

To Qirat... No contest there if i were them and i offend Timur in anyway, i will run as far away as possible too. I just hope it will be not alt Dzungar genocide... I hope i guess.
 
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I really like having this discussion and speculation. If i may speculate more, I think for the most part sanjak beyond ural will mostly autonomous not too different to the like of North Africa Province of the Ottoman due to remoteness and backwater nature of the area. Next I believe much day to day administration in the area will be in the hand of local chieftain and notable with the governor either selected among chief who happen to be the top of the pack at the moment or largely ceremonial appointed governor from Saray. Of course this may change in the future with advancement of Technology and whatnot to allow more direct control.
Excellent OTL analogy. It will slowly start to change only in mid 16th century.
Social wise like berber and bedouin tribes in the Ottoman empire, they will be required to swear loyalty to the Khan but otherwise independent on their own. I also can see some tribes from the west of ural migrate to Siberia in advent of centralization in Golden Horde proper to avoid the Khan authority.
In 17th century: You don't wanna go to Khan? Fine, the Khan will come to you:openedeyewink:
Manchuria I think will be likely than not to be still influenced by Chinese cultural sphere even without direct land border this is more true especially with stronger Yuan in the area. The Ming will likely cultivate them as possible allies against the Mongol and the Jurchen will likely do the same if they feel threatened by the Mongol. Since the Mongol not control the sea there is no way for them to do anything about it. Religion wise for them it is still up in the air with my bet it is more likely something Sinosphere related (Buddhism, Taoism) rather abrahamic barring Sunni Islam. Since Ming policy effectively eradicate those communities. Well even if Ming not directly influenced them there is still Joseon Korea (Ming Tributary & part of sinosphere) to consider.
let's see how Timur's descendants fare as successors of Mongols. The religious fate is still up in the air. How strong was Nestorian church in Mongolia btw? With the encroachment of Islam, they might be inclined to find followers elsewhere.
To Qirat... No contest there if i were them and i offend Timur in anyway, i will run as far away as possible too. I just hope it will be not alt Dzungar genocide... I hope i guess.
Oirats will face nothing like the Dzungar genocide but they will be forced to abondon their ancestral lands( 3 out of the 4 tribes will migrate). But as it turns out, nomadic migration to a specific place will have domino effect on other groups in their destined area..leading to interesting consequences, sometimes in lands far away from where the events take place;)
 
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let's see how Timur's descendants fare as successors of Mongols. The religious fate is still up in the air. How strong was Nestorian church in Mongolia btw? With the encroachment of Islam, they might be inclined to find followers elsewhere.
Unfortunately for them their number already very negligible. Since Nestorian in the east more likely to find in silk road settlement and urban center, their presence in the eastern Mongolia is virtually non existence. Also urban center like Karakorum already razed by the Ming well before pod further reduce their number. Combine this with Islamization of their former stronghold in the west, Ming policies in China, and they are minority in the first place basically eradicate their communities.

Also the Mongol in Mongolia proper despite Yuan court adoption of Tibetan Buddhism largely shamanist with some minor Buddhist & Islamic influence due to contact with Western Khanate and Yuan court. Buddhist really become majority later in Qing period. But so yeah it is really hard to see Nestorian become anything major at this point.
 
Althought not decline as Tumu Crisis in half century ago.Ming warfare still backward than Ottoman's.With puppet of Yuan,even have chance to conquer south of Yangtze.
 
Althought not decline as Tumu Crisis in half century ago.Ming warfare still backward than Ottoman's.With puppet of Yuan,even have chance to conquer south of Yangtze.
Yes I know, but Timur will maintain his legendary status as 'undefeated conqueror' though not easily. Ming army still uses more gunpowder weapon than Turko-mongol forces of Timur. He will have to defeat at least one army from Yongle if he wishes to gain territory from China proper. He will most likely gain territory from Qinghai and Gansu but no further than that, he is also ageing.
 
Wow, totally forgot that Yongle has just finished Jingnan war. Ming soldiers are battle ready but the main force has to reach north following a long route. Timur will now have an advantage in choosing a battlefield unless bad luck gets to him.

Last update is edited and has some significant change owing to character death and no faceoff between Ming border troops and Umar Sheikh's retinue

The transfer of Capital to Beijing might be halted temporarily, leading to interesting consequences in architecture. The forbidden city as we know it might never be built.
 
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Man, at last I will see a proper Timur invading China. Can't wait.
And the Tartary Siberia sounds really cool
Just one question: will there any potential for anyone from Asia discovering the Americas due to all the nomads alternate fates? Can a few ordus escape all the way east they end up in the Great Plains?
 
Sultan of blues
Ottoman-Timurid wars

In early 800s, eastern Anatolia was a boiling pot. Recent Ottoman victories which subjugated Turkic Beyliks in East and crippled the once powerful Karamanid beylik to the south was not the end of the affair but opening a new chapter. The dissatisfied Turkmen clans for now swore fealty to the Ottoman Sultan Beyazid, nicknamed 'Yildirim' or 'thunderbolt' for his crushing victory against Crusaders in Nicopolis. But Ottomans conquest of Anatolia would not go unchallenged.

In 803 Timurid prince Shahrukh Mirza finished the conquest of Baghdad by deposing the Jalayrid dynasty because of alleged secret contact with Ottomans and Mameluke Masr and subjugated the Kara Quyonlu Turkmens who rebelled after Timur's departure. The leader of the latter state, Kara Yusuf fled to Ottomans again. Ottomans and Mamlukes along with Kara Quyonlu entered a grand alliance against possible Timurid Invasion from east. But Mamlukes were skeptical of the black sheep Turkmen. They thought the of the exiled Turkmen bey Kara Yusuf as 'a jackal seeking protection from the Ottoman wolf and Masri Panther'. In short they were worried that Kara Quyonlu would appoint his favorable candidate on the Baghdad throne once Timurids were defeated. So the Mamluk spies in Ottoman court started intrigues against Kara Yusuf.
1200px-Sultan_Gazi_Yıldırım_Bayezid_Han_-_السلطان_الغازي_يلدرم_بايزيد_خان.jpg

Image: Ottoman Sultan Beyazid the first 'Yildirim'

In Safar 804, a Timurid force under Sharukh assaulted Mosul and captured it. This was technically declaring war on the grand alliance as a member had been attacked. Beyazid, who at that time was besieging Constantinople sent his 3 sons, Suleiman, Isa and Musa with a retinue of 15,000 Ottoman troops and 25,000 allied Turkmen soldiers. Isa argued to wait for the Timurids to cross the Taurus mountains but Suleiman, commander of the campaign refused and led the troops across the range. In Rabiul Sani, they were finally across Taurus range and reached Diyarbekir. The Timurid force of 45,000 were advancing swiftly after crossing the Dajlah river and were only 60 miles from the Ottoman camp. In Jumada Awwal 12, 804(December 18, 1401) the tired Ottomans were surprised to find scouts reporting of Timurid presence roughly 10 km away. The Turkmen soldiers actually came into contact with Timurids much earlier and Timurids were able to influence the former to switch sides during the battle. The recent Ottoman conquest of Anatolian beyliks made matters worse and black Sheep Turkmen(apart from Kara Yusuf and some of his followers) were suspicious of Ottoman ambitions in Dajlah valley.

So on that day, both armies met near Diyarbekir and lined up for battle. The Turkmen cavalry were on the extreme right and left flanks. The battle began and Timurids charged first. The initial charge was repulsed and Ottoman left wing was able to advance. The Turkmen left wing followed close behind and soon surrounded the confused Ottomans and annhilated them. The right wing which was much near the Ottoman main army charged without prior order but were almost routed by resilient Ottoman counter attack. But they were soon overwhelmed by Timurid forces and there was no remaining left flank to cover for them. As expected, the battle was a disaster for Ottomans. Prince Suleiman and Musa died in the battlefield and a gravely injured Isa was captured( died on the way to Isfahan).
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Image: Battle of Diyarbekir (artwork circa 1200 AH)

The news of the Ottoman defeat spread like wildfire throughout Anatolia and rebellion rose up in places like Karaman, Aydin and Kastamoni. Prince Muhammad who was in Al-Qahira hurriedly reached Anatolia with a contingent of 7000 Mamluke troops. But it was not enough to stop the rebellion. Beyazid was now forced to conclude his siege of Constantinople and focus all his strength to keep his Anatolian gains. But it would not be easy. After battle of Kayseri in Rajab 804 and Sivas in Dhul Qadh 804, the Ottoman gains west of Taurus mountain were secured for now with Dulqadirids established as a buffer zone between Mamlukes and Ottomans. But Karamanid were still resisting. In siege of Konya in Muharram 805 (August 1402), Ottomans won a costly victory where 8,000 troops died on their side. Shehzade Mustafa was blinded in one eye and injured severely on his right leg.

A furious Beyazid blamed Kara Yusuf for the betrayal of Turkmen tribes. Ottoman investigations found some 'letters' in Kara Yusuf's possession which bore the seal of Timur. This was in fact a clever ploy by Mamluke spies who devised it before the disaster at Diyarbekir. But now the enraged Sultan ordered the execution of the exiled chieftain because all the facts and events led to a Kara Quyonlu conspiracy with Timurids. The decapacitated head of the ill fated Kara Yusuf was sent to Timur with a letter which called upon the warlord as 'a degenerate who sought to sabotage by sending his agents in courts'. Timur who was in Almaliq responded by saying 'son of Osman has gone mad' and he would have marched on to meet Beyazid had he not delivered the head of Kara Yusuf who was a' treacherous opportunist' and also chided the Ottoman sultan for thinking crooked about another Muslim ruler, one as honorable as Timur. Timur also advised Beyazid on being 'careful when picking one's allies because who is to blame if one brings in home, a snake and is bitten afterwards?' Thus he completely denied allegation of having Kara Yusuf as a fifth column in Ottoman court. There was no exchange between the two furthermore as Timur became busy with his campaign against Ming Dynasty and Beyazid fell into depression following the surgical amputation of Shehzade Mustafa's right leg below the knee, earning the title 'lame prince' for the latter.

Beyazid stopped all military campaigns and secluded himself in his room, indulging in wine to forget the sorrows of losing 3 of his sons and having one rendered disable. Muhammad was the de facto ruler of Ottomans since early 806 and in 12 Shawwal 806 ( April 20 1404) Agas found the Sultan dead in his bed when they went to provide breakfast for him. Muhammad was declared sultan in an inauspicious ceremony. It was the start of the reign of Muhammad the First........

(From 'Eternal Kingdom: Rider from the sky' by Riyad Muqaddim Al Hussein)

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This silence, this moment, every moment, if it's genuinely inside you
brings what you need, live in silence.

-Jalaluddin Rumi

Persistence is the key

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The vast Mongol steppe near the once bustling city of Karakorrum was testimony to the origin of the greatest empires on earth. The sparse trees, standing on the horizon like sentries in the never ending stretch of grassy plain whispered as the light summer breeze blew and created tunes of harmony in every branch, every leaf. Near a collapsed wall of the once great city, many people gathered as they handled books and scrolls. A moderate sized yurt was nearby which seemed like the center of the attention. It didn't bear any of the ornate flags or jewels like any army commander's yurt. But the man standing in front of the gathering knew he was serving a purpose equal, if not greater than the military of the Khan.

"Alright class, that's for today. If anyone requires any book then I'm available until the Zuhar salah." Atrak spoke as he prepared to leave.

Soon as he entered the yurt, Nogai* came running. Unlike dogs, his tail didn't wag but his eyes were enough to tell Atrak that this sub adult wolf was happy to see him. Bending down , he embraced his lupine companion and fed him some barbeque from the satchel he carried with him always. Unlike most people, he never carried a dagger, saying that 'Allah is protection enough for learnt men.' He began pouring water into a jar from a wooden reservoir. The sound of trinkets indicated that someone entered his yurt made him stop what he was doing and stepped to meet his 'guest'

"I have finished this book Sayyid." a female in traditional mongol dress stood with a book in her hands.

"Jazakallah, Narangerel ." Atrak said as he took the book from her hand. His lowered gaze was somewhat uneasy for a while.

Just as he was preparing to leave, Narangerel interrupted:
"Sayyid, I want that history book you mentioned last week, what was it? Kitab Al Uyun or something?"

Atrak sighed as he turned to face her again.
"Toghan Yogay took it from me last evening."

"Then can you please give me something else to read?"

"Wait here, let me go to my collection."
Atrak solemnly stated as he went inside.

As he fumbled through the books in one of the 3 shelves which housed all his books, he was startled by the voice of Narangerel.
"What is this? Tawq Al Hamamah by Ahamd Sai'd Ibn Hazm. Looks interesting."

"Please wait outside until I can grab something suitable for you."
Atrak was nervous that this young female barely in her 20s ventured deep inside his personal abode but maintained the sternness of a teacher in his tone.

As he heard footsteps fading away, he was able to concentrate on finding a book for his most 'enthusiastic' pupil. But a nagging feeling in the furthest corner of his mind screamed of an impending trouble.

He was completely taken by surprise as an arm was coiled around his throat. His hands upto wrist were in the tangle of ropes. Soon he felt the cold sensation of dagger on his throat and the breath of the 'unknown assailant' on his neck.

"All those subtle hints, all those winks and all those piece of paper I sent you....no response, no nothing. Why? Am I really not worthy of having your hand?" Narangerel whispered into the middle aged man's ears as she pinned him on the floor and climbed on his back.

"Child, you better not get yourself in trouble for this."

"Who says trouble? I've ridden unruly stallions, hunted cunning foxes and subdued even the most stubborn of falcons. My rule is clear, if I can't have you Mr. scholar then I'll break you."

"You insolent brat! Your father will-"
but he went silent as the dagger pressed on his throat again.

"I give you two choices. Either you accept my offer and wed yourself to ME or I kill you right now and start a war between Mr. lame and your state." her voice was undaunted.

She flipped him and sat on his chest, eyes now locked together as Atrak wanted to make something of this strange girl and her antics. But his head found no reasoning other than blind love.

"So what is it going to be Sayyid Atrak Beg, son of Tini Beg from Altan Orda? Bed or blade? Choose wisely." Atrak couldn't count the number of emotions he saw in the Mongol girl's eyes as he gazed at his assailant bewilderingly. Love, lust, desperation and insanity? He couldn't choose which one was predominant yet they say 'eye is the mirror of soul.'

"Fine, I give in. You win, now get off me." Atrak said to the grinning girl.

"I will but not before this.." she leaned in wanted to lock her lips with him but he turned his face away.

"No fooling around before marriage please. Allah forgive me for the sin I've committed so far, I can't bear anymore." his voice was quivering.

"Alright, by sunset tomorrow, remember that my father won't let you go easily if you try anything stupid, which I believe you won't because a scholar always knows which one is greater good right?" Narangerel said with a wide grin as she lifted herself off her teacher and cut off the bindings on his hand.

She walked out of the yurt and scratched the head of a snoozing Nogai as she exited. Atrak just sat in a disheveled state in both shock and amazement. He wasn't supposed to look beyond his studies and never imagined himself in a married life. But this girl, with her constant nagging was getting on his nerves. Oh well, he is getting old, almost 40 next year. He better have a helper in his household. But one thing he really didn't understand, out of all the men in this settlement, why did Arughtai's daughter choose him?

'Oh Allah, I don't know what your plan is but surely your plan is the best plan.' he prayed in silence as the call for Zuhar prayer sounded far away.

(From 'Samarqand Diaries' by Edward Hoffman , English adoption of Sijillat Atrak)
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*he's a wolf found as a pup during a hunting trip. If he was a dog he wouldn't be staying inside the yurt as it is forbidden in Islam to keep dogs indoors.

My folks, we are dealing with an infatuated student here, one may think she is sapiosexual to have fallen for a man twice her age but our Atrak fellow isn't bad looking one either! But as with all historical novels/fictions, there is a healthy amount of imaginary editing by the author(or the interpreter in this case) which spices up the story. True that Atrak got married to the daughter of a Mongol noble named Arughtai(there are several of them from the same time period), the dramatic depiction of a yandere is purely the editor's touch here.

And the Alt battle of Ankara proves just as devastating for the Ottomans, except throwing them into civil war. and while Beyazid was a muslim, he drank a lot of Alcohol and was the pioneer of heavy drinkers among Ottoman dynasty. So I had to twist a lot to bring Mumammad(or Mehmed) to power, But only hope it was plausible. Constantinople has survived again, let's see how long they can keep it up.

My updates are rather erratic and are not coming on their usual routine of Wednesday/Thursday every week. Hope I can patch it up.
 
Man, at last I will see a proper Timur invading China. Can't wait.
And the Tartary Siberia sounds really cool
Just one question: will there any potential for anyone from Asia discovering the Americas due to all the nomads alternate fates? Can a few ordus escape all the way east they end up in the Great Plains?
Highly unlikely for ordus to cross Siberia into Alaska as Siberia is enough to satiate the desire for fur which will drive the colonisation of this vast land ITTL. But you can bet on Ming being the top Asian candidate for discovery of Americas. Though how much the royal court decides to spend on overseas diplomatic naval expeditions with a powerful Timurid /Yuan to their north is doubtful. But I have plans for someone very unlikely yet very plausible to be the pioneer amongst non-European in race for new world.
 
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But I have plans for someone very unlikely yet very plausible to be the pioneer amongst non-European in race for new world.
Abubakar of Mali i guess?

Well that is one way to stop civil war. After all if there is clear candidate then the question settled then. Speaking of Bayezid without him captured by Timur like otl, what is the fate of his wife Despina and his brother-in-law Lazar in this tl? Lazar pretty loyal to Bayezid during Bayezid reign and was competent too. Serbia-Ottoman history and relation are fascinating in this period. I dunno maybe Serbia can play the role of Wallachia in this tl but we will see.

Well for Atrak... I believe your life will be very interesting i say... hopefully not in chinese sense. But from this snippet, I believe all of the Mongol successor states will have close relation between them in a sense they establish regular contact and re-establish familial relation with each other. Maybe the line between Mongol & Tatar will be more blur in the future but we will see again.

Anyway great update.
 
Abubakar of Mali i guess?
Abubakar was reigning at that time? Anyway no spoilers😎
Well that is one way to stop civil war. After all if there is clear candidate then the question settled then. Speaking of Bayezid without him captured by Timur like otl, what is the fate of his wife Despina and his brother-in-law Lazar in this tl? Lazar pretty loyal to Bayezid during Bayezid reign and was competent too. Serbia-Ottoman history and relation are fascinating in this period. I dunno maybe Serbia can play the role of Wallachia in this tl but we will see.
Despina is still at court of Muhammad despite her husband's death. While Beyazid had amicable relation with Lazar, let's see how Muhammad the gentleman deals with him. Fates are still up in the air. I do wish to have lots more slavic muslims in this TL so let's see what I can do😜
Well for Atrak... I believe your life will be very interesting i say... hopefully not in chinese sense
Care to enlighten? I am not familiar with the phrase.
, I believe all of the Mongol successor states will have close relation between them in a sense they establish regular contact and re-establish familial relation with each other. Maybe the line between Mongol & Tatar will be more blur in the future but we will see again.
Maybe or maybe not. Whether the ethnic identity will blur or not let's see but assuming both follow Sunni Islam and Hanafi sect (Timur endorsing Hambal's fatwa was just Timur being Timur, always look for ways to start war😁) , it is likely to happen but not anytime soon. Familial relation is bound to happen and i have interesting ideas for descendents of Atrak😉.
 
Abubakar was reigning at that time? Anyway no spoilers😎

Care to enlighten? I am not familiar with the phrase.
Well my mistake his reign is already over almost a century ago but WI about him is one of the first thing that introduce me to alternate history scene so that came up first in my mind.

To the phrase, if your life have many (bad) exciting thing happen like near death experience, war, etc then your life is interesting then.
 
To the phrase, if your life have many (bad) exciting thing happen like near death experience, war, etc then your life is interesting then
Yap, Atrak faced a civil war, right now he's about to witness one of the biggest wars in East Asia and he was almost butchered by his yandere bride to be, he will still face another 'deadly' experience coming soon and I will try to explain why writers took such liberty in painting Narangerel as a fierce and psychotic character.
 
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