Under wings of the Zilant: a Golden horde timeline
- Thread starter Ursogulos
- Start date
Yes, sadly this system will remain until early 16th Century and it will kinda parallel European dukedoms for analogy. Family members will be sprung off as lords of far flung provinces of little importance while the more strategically and economically incorporated ones will be under the new(!) administration. And about the recipe for disaster, you're right. I'm not planning for a Golden horde wank, they'll face external and mostly internal problems as they reform and begin stabilizing in the 16th century.
Hmm, not short lived. They'll be vassalized by the Timurids for a while but will retain their power once Timur begins his long awaited campaign somewhere big.....
Islam will get a major boost in this timeline and there will be many implications on Russian history as well.
well they're gonna be screwed for a while, just not by Golden horde but someone from the west. But I plan to retain Russia as a regional power in my TL with very close ties to Golden horde(whatever new name it will have) late in my timeline.
Trap
From Vikings to Tsars: Early Russian history
by Vasiley Simkus, Smolensk institute of Heritage, Russia( published 1403 AH)
In 773, a Tatar army under Qutlugh Timur attacked Novgorod republic. They were not alone however. Soon, the Tatars were joined by forces of Mikhail II, prince of Tver. They sacked the countryside and laid siege to the city itself. Their demand, to recognize Mikhail as prince of Novgorod, thus making him a grand prince and a rival to Muscovy. The current Prince, Dmitry , was also the ruler of Muscovy .To say that Dmitry was furious would be an undrstatement, as the Muscovite forces rallied and started towards North to meet the meddling Tatars and the usurping Rus. But Dmitry first contacted the Khan about this. Toktaymish who was gurdian of Makmut gave his silent blessing to the Muscovite prince to advance with his expedition.
As the Muscovites closed in on Tver, the forces besieging Novgorod quickly rushed south to protect their homeland. Qutlugh Timur was surprised at the Muscovite audacity and sent messengers to his father Orys for help. Orys, being the Beqlar beg begin hastily assembling a force of 10,000 and called for his other son Toqtaqiya in white horde. Toktaymish promised him on assisting as soon as Toqtaqiya arrived with his retinue. Toktaymish even called for a mass mobilization of the horde's far flung military groups. The Crimean forces were to attack Muscovy from south so as to threaten Dmitry's rear. But it was all a mind-blowing politics of Toktaymish. The Crimean Tatars attacked Muscovy but refrained form besieging the cities, only sacking the countryside to the south. This token show was exaggerated by Toktaymish in front Of Orys so that he'd be inclined to go on campaigning with his troops. The forces of Dmitry after sacking Tver, went east and camped near the present day village of Kablukovo. There were about 40,000 Muscovite troops under his command. His reserve was supposed to come but the Crimean assault delayed their arrival.
Image: battle of Kablukovo showing charge of Tatar army
The joint Tatar-Tver forces soon converged near the position of Dmitry. There was about 30,000 troops in the allied army which included 20,000 from Kazan and 8,000 from Tver, the rest being mercenaries or Uighur troops( migrants from Mogulistan). The promise of new troops by Orys made Qutlugh Timur delay his attack, much to the annoyance of his brother in law Mikhail. This delay was crucial for Muscovites as another 5,000 troops arrived whom Dmitry cleverly hid in a forest nearby. Finally on 5 Shawal 773( 11 March 1372), the two forces lined up for battle as Orys arrived with his retinue. The battle was going on like several hours as both sides tried to outflank each other. Orys ordered some troops from his center to enforce the right flank of Kazan Tatars who were holding ground so far. It seemed that the Muscovite right flank would rout. But only then the 5,000 cavalry troops charged from the forest and assaulted the left Tatar flank. Unable to withstand such attack, the formation broke as Tatars begin to scatter. Orys was wondering where Toqtaqiya was along with Toktaymish. The truth is, Toktaymish ensured the son of Orys the post of bey of Kazan if his brother died in this battle. So instead of coming to his brother and father's rescue, Toqtaqiya was standing on the other side of Volga with his 30,000 strong force. In the end Tatar forces were defeated and prince of Tver, Mikhail was captured by Muscovites and soon executed. Orys died in the battle. Qutlugh Timur sustained injuries trying to relieve his Kazan Tatars. He was poisoned by Toqtaqiya as he fled to the latter's position after the battle. The Muscovites were emboldened after this battle so much that they forgot to even thank Toktaymish. But the schemes of Toktaymish were far from over.....
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And an alternate for battle of Kulikovo. Instead it is Toktaymish's chess board and his biggest move is still in reserve.
by Vasiley Simkus, Smolensk institute of Heritage, Russia( published 1403 AH)
In 773, a Tatar army under Qutlugh Timur attacked Novgorod republic. They were not alone however. Soon, the Tatars were joined by forces of Mikhail II, prince of Tver. They sacked the countryside and laid siege to the city itself. Their demand, to recognize Mikhail as prince of Novgorod, thus making him a grand prince and a rival to Muscovy. The current Prince, Dmitry , was also the ruler of Muscovy .To say that Dmitry was furious would be an undrstatement, as the Muscovite forces rallied and started towards North to meet the meddling Tatars and the usurping Rus. But Dmitry first contacted the Khan about this. Toktaymish who was gurdian of Makmut gave his silent blessing to the Muscovite prince to advance with his expedition.
As the Muscovites closed in on Tver, the forces besieging Novgorod quickly rushed south to protect their homeland. Qutlugh Timur was surprised at the Muscovite audacity and sent messengers to his father Orys for help. Orys, being the Beqlar beg begin hastily assembling a force of 10,000 and called for his other son Toqtaqiya in white horde. Toktaymish promised him on assisting as soon as Toqtaqiya arrived with his retinue. Toktaymish even called for a mass mobilization of the horde's far flung military groups. The Crimean forces were to attack Muscovy from south so as to threaten Dmitry's rear. But it was all a mind-blowing politics of Toktaymish. The Crimean Tatars attacked Muscovy but refrained form besieging the cities, only sacking the countryside to the south. This token show was exaggerated by Toktaymish in front Of Orys so that he'd be inclined to go on campaigning with his troops. The forces of Dmitry after sacking Tver, went east and camped near the present day village of Kablukovo. There were about 40,000 Muscovite troops under his command. His reserve was supposed to come but the Crimean assault delayed their arrival.
Image: battle of Kablukovo showing charge of Tatar army
The joint Tatar-Tver forces soon converged near the position of Dmitry. There was about 30,000 troops in the allied army which included 20,000 from Kazan and 8,000 from Tver, the rest being mercenaries or Uighur troops( migrants from Mogulistan). The promise of new troops by Orys made Qutlugh Timur delay his attack, much to the annoyance of his brother in law Mikhail. This delay was crucial for Muscovites as another 5,000 troops arrived whom Dmitry cleverly hid in a forest nearby. Finally on 5 Shawal 773( 11 March 1372), the two forces lined up for battle as Orys arrived with his retinue. The battle was going on like several hours as both sides tried to outflank each other. Orys ordered some troops from his center to enforce the right flank of Kazan Tatars who were holding ground so far. It seemed that the Muscovite right flank would rout. But only then the 5,000 cavalry troops charged from the forest and assaulted the left Tatar flank. Unable to withstand such attack, the formation broke as Tatars begin to scatter. Orys was wondering where Toqtaqiya was along with Toktaymish. The truth is, Toktaymish ensured the son of Orys the post of bey of Kazan if his brother died in this battle. So instead of coming to his brother and father's rescue, Toqtaqiya was standing on the other side of Volga with his 30,000 strong force. In the end Tatar forces were defeated and prince of Tver, Mikhail was captured by Muscovites and soon executed. Orys died in the battle. Qutlugh Timur sustained injuries trying to relieve his Kazan Tatars. He was poisoned by Toqtaqiya as he fled to the latter's position after the battle. The Muscovites were emboldened after this battle so much that they forgot to even thank Toktaymish. But the schemes of Toktaymish were far from over.....
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And an alternate for battle of Kulikovo. Instead it is Toktaymish's chess board and his biggest move is still in reserve.
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Well Persians are all well and good to form an administrative class and form the majority in whatever small cities have emerged, but they simply don't have the population necessary to be a relevant source of taxes. There aren't enough Persians to colonise the land and form an agricultural base. The Khan will be incredibly poor compared to their Russian vassals, and so weak as well. If the Khan can't maintain control of the Russian tax base, by the time the 16th century comes, I'd be very surprised if they're anywhere near strong enough to be able to stop the Russians from vassalising them.
This is why I said the Russians will remain a substantial source of taxation despite the new migrations. And Muscovy will not be able to keep hold on its valuable lands and trade networks for long, there is a tag which I think gives the spoiler who will be their arch nemesis in this TL. Orthodox nazarenes will have no alternative but to collaborate with muslims if they wish to remain free. Similarly Tatars must co operate with Orthodox Nazarenes if they wish to keep a healthy distance between themselves and the behemoth to the west that will make its debut in an update or two later.
Did happened but other way around: the Sarai Diocese had been founded in 1261 by Berke on appeal of Prince Alexander Yaroslavovich. It changed names few times and eventually was transferred to Moscow in 1454 (residence in Krutitsy) . It’s leader was second in the rank in Russian Orthodox hierarchy and in 1589, when Tsardom got its Patriarchy, the bishop of Sarai (Sar) had been elevated into Metropolite. So the process was going in a direction opposite to one you described. 😜
While the legal part of the Russian position within the Horde was not seriously challenged all the way to Ivan III and not completely settled at least until 1572 (battle of Molodi) when the claim of Devlet Giray to the GH a legacy (including Moscow status as a vassal princedom and sovereignty over Kazan and Astrakhan) failed, a de facto ability of the GH to maintain situation of the XIII-XIV centuries was steadily diminishing.
Even if we remove Timur from the picture and eliminate a destructive power struggle within the Horde it is very questionable if the arrangement could be permanent without conversion of the GH into Orthodoxy. The Polish-Lithuanian card could not be convincingly played as unification factor because Poland was almost irrelevant until much later and Lithuania was not considered as a “national enemy” even at the time of Witold: the princedoms of the Western Rus had been joining the Great Duchy voluntarily or with a minimal resistance (not greater than resistance to the Moscow expansion), there were connections by marriage (Jagello’s mother was Princess of Tver, Witold’s daughter married to Great Prince of Moscow) and numerous members of the Lithuanian aristocracy voluntarily went to Moscow and formed top level of the Russian “service” aristocracy.
The Muslim rulers of the Horde could be (and had been) nice to their Orthodox subjects but:
(a) By the reasons you mentioned they had been interested in having a single major direct Russian client state and when that client was getting richer and stronger, it’s rulers had been growing more ambitious.
(b) Religious differences provided a fertile ground for “us vs. them” propaganda and made merge of the upper classes rather difficult. In OTL the baptized members of Tatar aristocracy provided one more pool of the cadres for the Russian aristocracy but that process is unlikely in the strong dominating Muslim Horde.
(c) Economically, the Horde was not very strong: it flourished for a while due to the transit trade and, if Timur and dynastic crisis are eliminated, this may continue for a while. However, even in comparison with the Central Russia (Muscovite state) it was lagging behind technologically, especially as far as introduction of the firearms was involved (and, anyway, their massive adoption would require a fundamental change of a traditional warfare).
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Given that in the current situation, they're not free either, the only way the situation could get worse is if the behemoth to the west is openly dead set on eradicating the orthodox religion and replacing the ruling class. A simple conquest by the westerners would just mean exchanging one ruling class for another.
Iirc even into the mid 17th century the Giray dynasty maintained a claim not just to Astrakhan and the Volga but also to Siberia!
Well if it wasn't questionable it wouldn't be alternate history! But I wouldn't be surprised if the horde manages (like Muslim states in India did very successfully might I add) to incorporate the religious minority's upper class into their government to such an extent that an us vs them attitude on religious grounds becomes impractical.
While conversion of the government and royal family doesn't seem necessary, or even possible by this point, I think they definitely need to allow orthodox princes into their government such that they form a sizable part of the nobility and do away with the cultural separation of the two communities. They need to make it seem that for an orthodox prince, the best way to get rich and achieve societal prestige is in the service of the Khan's government (which by the way is a good way of reducing the power of the Khan's family as well, as the Christians would be loyal directly to the sovereign employing them not to the notion of the golden family as a whole)
This is definitely the problem that needs sorting out urgently- Arctodus seems to be planning for the horde to go through some decentralised chaos as it finds its way to early modernity, but with such a strong potential power directly above I don't think they have the luxury of time at the moment. It's either slowly but surely keep increasing control and integration of Russia and it's nobility, or inevitably get vassalised.
Claims of Giray dynasty are relevant only as long as they have a realistic chance to be enforceable. In the XVII a chance for the Crimean Khanate to get control of Kazan and/or Astrakhan was negligible and claim of sovereignty over Tsardom (part of which were Kazan and Astrakhan) were plain zero. Crimeans had been extracting tribute but this was just extortion payments to minimize the looting raids.
An idea of incorporating the Orthodox princes into Horde’s “government” seems to be a pure theory as long as you have a Muslim Horde located on the lower Volga, away from North-Eastern Rus. The princes had been ruling their domains so how would they be simultaneously present in Sarai? Then of course goes a different life style: a nomadic and semi-nomadic for the Horde and sedentary for the principalities. A proposed schema would make some sense if the princedoms as the meaningful entities are abolished and a khan is governing the whole territory directly. But this was not possible because the Horde did not have the needed resources even immediately after conquest of Russia: Batu and his successors needed cooperation of the local princes and even the practice of sending Mongolian representatives for collecting the taxes failed. By the time of the OP the chance for the direct administration of the Russian lands, however small, had been gone. The only winning scenario was to convert into the Orthodoxy and to use still existing legal status for consolidation “Moscow style”. Even capital would have to be moved from the lower Volga closer to the Russian lands.
Comparison with India is irrelevant because attitudes of the Orhtodox Church and Hinduism toward the foreign religions are seriously different and the same goes for the cultures in general. As soon as the Orthodox segment gets stronger, the conflict is practically inevitable even if the Muslim leaders are not religiously oppressive: they weren’t in OTL and still stance of the Russian Orthodox Church gradually changed from absolutely subservient to a confrontational.
The process of incorporation was going in opposite direction: the Tatar nobility was entering service of Moscow without requirement of conversion which was required only for getting on the top of an administrative hierarchy (boyar status) but it was a minority incorporated by a majority, not other way around.
This I gotta see. I'm yet to give any hint of Toktaymish's final move that will be a shock to everyone, the Khan included. Rus tradition of having the elder inherit most of the domain is a big factor in creating a stable realm over time. Let's see if I can change the scenario favorable to GH. Novgorod is the trump card here. Toktaymish is an even more wild card in this TL than OTL😊
While drawing parallel with India is a bit far fetched in this regard, there will be a bit of trickling of some Rus nobility, mostly from realms other than Muscovy.
Timur destroying the overland trade routes was a factor here, though I'm not knowledgeable on the economic activities of Muscovy. But being the grand prince and being simultaneously in control of rich Novgorod was certainly a boom to them. And after the war with Timur lenk , a new era will be ushered in terms of warfare and weaponry by Makmut Khan. We have yet to see how he functions as an independent ruler not under constant annoying 'gurdianship' of someone crafty like Toktaymish.
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Moscow was just a reflection of a general trend and for a while it’s princes were the closest to the GH : that’s how they got their position of the tax collector. The point is that from the very beginning there was no GH “government” in which the Russian princes could participate in a meaningful way. The Horde was territorially and culturally separate and governed by the laws put of which the Russian territories were excluded by definition: Genghis’ Yasa applied exclusively to the nomads. Conversion into Islam made that separation even stronger.
Moscow did not “control” Novgorod on a permanent base until the reign of Ivan III: for example, at some point Witold was acknowledged as its “protector” (and he was “protector” of Moscow as well).
Why Totkhamysh would be Khan’s “guardian”? He was a Genghisid and as such was a legitimate candidate to khan’s position by the existing rules. Perhaps you are talking about Mamai who, indeed, could not be a Khan. Not sure if any khan of the GH could start a “new era” in the terms of warfare and weaponry: the GH was not exactly a technologically advanced state capable of production massive numbers of the firearms and, anyway, it would be too early for their revolutionary usage (they were simply still too primitive) and then it lacked the cadres for a massive infantry (Timur at least controlled the big sedentary areas of the CA).
Well as I understand it there was constant travel to and from Sarai and the principalities, but maybe I should have said the princely class rather than the princes themselves, so the younger brothers etc etc.
And yet the mobile Mughal court which was constantly traveling between campsites and cities wasn't a hindrance to the incorporation of the sedentary Rajputs.
Well I don't think it's a binary of either direct rule or let the princes essentially be independent. I'm proposing the Khan's gradually assert greater rights in the inner workings of the principalities governments on an ad-hoc basis as a response to individual opportunities, while still maintaining the princes.
As a fundamental I categorically reject the idea that any religious group is unable to peacefully coexist with any other group just as an inherent part of "their nature". Religion can form a locus of conflict of course and can be insuperable in specific ongoing conflicts, but over the long durée of centuries that we're looking at here, there will always be ways to figure out a productive arrangement. Otls stance of the Orthodox church becoming more hostile was historically contingent, dependent on the specific circumstances of otl, not just the way that the Orthodox are.
I think it's the best parallel to draw, as India is the only place where Islam was as much of a minority as it is in this case. The Ottoman and safavid states were able to exclude Christians from their governing class to a much greater degree because Christians weren't an overwhelming majority. In this case, the number of Muslims is just tiny compared to the number of non Muslims, and if the horde relies only on its Turkic Muslim population to keep the Christians subjugated and excluded from power, then as otl the Christians simply won't listen to them.
Yeah of course, I was only saying it to mention how divorced from reality their imperial pretensions were.
There's still a privileged ruling class that members of the Russian princely class can join. I understand your point that there's not an established bureaucratic tradition that they can take roles in, but there were positions of power in court that they could take, such as the qaraci beys.
It would need a massive shift away from the tradition of Genghisid qaraci beys, but given that there is competition for the position of the Khan, if a candidate can incorporate the Rus in this way and thus access their resources, he'll be much more likely to defeat a candidate who relies only on the resources that the Turkic element of society can offer.
That's where he's heading and will almost succeed until...bump. He has already wiped out Orus khan's family ( Toqtaqiya still alive ). Right now he is exercising his position as the Orda beg of horde military
But it will be a start and Makmut will be getting the idea from a place just on the other side. For now he's creating a small branch of Special infantry numbering 200 with all sorts of melee weapons that would be his personal guard because Toktaymish is getting under his skin with the brash and unpredictable moves.
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Russian inheritance tradition was rather complicated at that time. It was already switching from succession by a senior member of a family to succession by an older son but every male member of the family still was getting his domain and the rights to the top princely position could and had been disputed all the way to the reign of Vasily II (who was blinded in a process of the last major dynastic war).
Novgorod is pretty much independent even if from time to time he acknowledges supremacy of the Great Prince of Moscow or Grand Duke of Lithuania. Un questionable control of Moscow is established only during the reign of Ivan III.
So who gets at least partial share of immense wealth of Novgorod? This is a place where I will be wishing to make changes.
The younger brothers are getting their own domains and are vassals of their elder brother. The princes had been travelling to Sarai either to deliver the tribute, to get "yarlik" (authorization of their rule) or to intrigue against other princes. They were not members of Khan's court but the rulers of the semi-independent vassal states.
At that time most of the European kings and major rulers with the lesser titles had been regularly travelling across their domains to oversee things, collect tribute and simply give servants time to clean the main residence. This has nothing to do with what I was talking about so please stop your irrelevant parallels.
The Mughals were not the nomads but both the Khans of the GH and their direct subjects (Tatars) were. The life style of the GH and its rulers even after conversion to Islam was to a great degree following the Mongolian tradition and the laws of Genghis which were applicable exclusively to the "people who live in the yurts". Which means that the sedentary subjects (Russian principalities) had been excluded from the laws of the GH (and, not being Muslims, obviously from the Sharia law as well).
Anyway, the important point in that context is that there was never a direct Horde's rule over the Russian territory, especially after the "Baskak" system was abolished: the princes preserved a complete autonomy within their domains.
The only way for this to happen would be for the khan to convert into Orthodoxy and start playing the same role as the OTL rulers of Moscow. Without that Khan could not assert any greater rights besides those he already had: the rights to install the princes and to receive a tribute.
As an Orthodox supreme ruler he could crush independence of the subordinated princes and replacing their "administration" with one of his own. But for this program to succeed he needed support of the Church and general acknowledgement of his rights as a direct ruler of the land, not just an abstract feudal sovereign. Plus he would have to adopt his life style to what was considered fitting for a true member of the Russian Orthodox Church (False Dmitry lost his life to a great degree because he did not behave “appropriately”). Again, for a converted ruler certain allowances could be made in the area of a life style but for regime stability it would be better to go all the way ASAP. For example Tsar Simeon was accepted without a murmur: in that area the Russians had been more flexible than the Chinese who kept considering the Mongolian emperors as outsiders even when they fully adopted all things Chinese.
You can reject whatever you want but you clearly do not understand what is written and the historic background. The Orthodox Church was OK with the pagan and then Muslim leaders of the GH as long as they kept confirming the privileges granted by Genghis and as long as the Russian principalities had been weak. But when principality of Moscow grew in strength, its position started changing. If in the mid-XIII the Orthodox Church was threatening to punish those who prayed for the well-being of the GH ruler incenserely, in the mid-XIV Prince Dmitry "Donskoy" got a blessing of the most influential Russian churchman of that time, Sergius of Radonez for the war against Mamai (of course, Mamai was not a legitimate ruler of the GH but nonetheless). As I said, as soon as the Orthodox segment got stronger, it was not going to tolerate a submissive position toward what considered a generally hostile religion. Pretty much the same as what was happening during the Reconquista in Spain. The main difference from Spain was that the Russian state was ready to tolerate the Muslims on its territory as long as they were in a subordinated position to the Orthodox majority (the "service" Tatars had been quite useful in a field).
As for the general statement regarding the peaceful co-existence, well, there were examples of a tolerance from a domineering group (as in Ottoman Empire) but there was also Reconquista and many other examples which do not fit your statement. How many (successful) Muslim rulers of a predominantly Christian state did exist during the Middle Ages?
Leaving aside absolutely irrelevant India, the Ottomans and Persia, you ended up being reasonably close to the point. In a reality, situation for the GH had been made worse by the fact that the Christians had independent power of their own and could not be "included" into the Horde's power structure in any meaningful way without an active involvement of the ASBs (or something close to it).
For something of the kind to happen there should be a very serious POD at the time of Batu (who pretty much established the OTL system).
The fundamental problem with the above is that the Russian princes were not really interested in taking positions at Khan's court (even before the GH converted into Islam) because it would require for them to switch to the nomadic/semi-nomadic life style and to abandon their own possessions in Russia.
Happened in a somewhat convoluted way in OTL: the Great Prince of Moscow conquered the Horde's successor states on Volga and adopted a title which was previously used to address the Khan ("Tsar"). Pre-requisite for incorporation of the Russian resources was the ruler having the majority religion.
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Novgorod was an independent state so whoever manages to subdue it, gets the spoils. In OTL it was Moscow. But "immense wealth" is a tricky thing. In OTL there were two main components; (a) tribute collected from the dependent Northern tribes and (b) Hanseatic trade. The first component was preserved under Moscow but the second was minimized by Ivan III and almost (or completely) eliminated by Ivan IV. By the time of ToT Novgorod was not a rich city.