Agreed, especially since even if Featherston lost the 1933 election, he probably still won a plurality of the popular vote and simply failed to secure an electoral college majority, causing the election to be thrown to the House where he lost due to the Whigs and Rad Libs cutting a deal.
I may actually have the perfect Point of Divergence for such a variation on Timeline-191: If I recall correctly during the Election Campaign of '33 a Freedom Party assault squad raided a Whig Rally at which Mr Hugo Black was a key speaker - now in THE VICTORIOUS OPPOSITION Mr Black was merely chased off with his tail between his legs, but if some Stalwart were just that little bit TOO enthusiastic it's not impossible that Hugo Black might suffer a martyrdom.
Under those circumstances I can imagine the 'Weathervane Whigs'* withdrawing their support from the Partizans - on the grounds that they're looking for Strongmen, not savages - to a degree sufficient that what might have been a clear majority outcome is instead thrown to the Electoral College to decide with what results we are currently speculating upon!
(*Those floating voters who've lost their trust in the Confederate GOP and who seem to have fastened on to Featherston as a marginally more respectable alternative than the Radical Liberals)
Featherston would be angry enough at losing the election outright, but if he feels he was cheated out of the presidency through a backroom "Corrupt Bargain" he'll be apocalyptic.
"Mad as a cut snake" would sum up his attitude at this particular point quite beautifully; I can see him attempting a Richmond Putsch, which under these circumstances might very well set off a Confederate Civil War even if it is successful - it is interesting to speculate on what might happen if he were cut down in the course of this Push, always a possibility in a street fight.
I'd bet that Koenig would be willing to work with Knight for a consideration, but I'm not sure that it would be possible for him to exert the same hold on the Confederate Population (given that he seems to be a paper-pusher and a follower, a bureaucrat and not a demagogue).
Per the novel canon, the Freedom Party won three governorships in the 1929 elections. The novels don't say which states, but it seems most likely they would have been Texas, Mississippi, and Tennessee. (The novels show Mississippi and Tennessee electing Governors in 1921 and Texas doing so in 1925, so assuming their Governors are on 4 year terms, they would all be holding Governor elections in 1929, and those three states seem to be the three strongest Freedom Party states.)
Likewise in 1931, the novels seem to have the Freedom Party win the Governorships of South Carolina, Florida, and Chihuahua. Featherson thus probably has control of the state militias of those six states which, coupled with his Stalwarts, gives him a pretty large army, so he'll be able to make a good fight of it.
I'd guess that Louisiana is likely to be the keystone of any Government (I can't decide whether to call them 'Legitimists' or 'Liberals'); Cuba seems likely to favour a Radical Liberal government and given that Cordell Hull is now POTCS Tennessee is unlikely to be as solid for the Freedom Party as Stalwarts might like to think - I can see it becoming a battleground state, as I'd guess it was in the '33 Election.
Going by your sketch of the Governorships, that gives the Legitimists some level of control over Sonora, Arkansas, Alabama, Georgia, North Carolina and Virginia - although if Sonora does back the Government (and given Radical Liberal control there it might very well do so) it is likely to be jumped on with considerable ferocity.
The Legitimists should certainly hope so because this would distract at least some Redemption League assets in the West to such a degree that Government Troops in the West could consolidate their position in the Upper South. If they're smart they'll focus on Tennessee and Mississippi, keeping no more than a watchful eye on South Carolina and Florida.
This is a war which will be won and lost in the Central Confederacy; keep the Redemption League and the Freedom Party from joining hands across Arkansas (or Louisiana, although I'd imagine this is much less likely) and they might stand a pretty good chance of splitting the Featherston/Knight Axis politically as well as physically.
In the end this all might come down to who holds Arkansas and if the Legitimists can ship enough troops from Cuba into Louisiana to allow for the latter to be held so securely that some of the local garrison can be dispatched into The Land of Opportunity (because if any Governor has been readying for a War against the Freedom Party it's the Kingfish).
Of course this assumes the Redemption League is still working with Featherston.
At any rate the Confederate Civil War will probably quickly become three sided with the surviving Reds seeing this as their chance to topple the Confederate States and rising up against both Featherston and Hull.
I suspect the U.S. will quietly aid the Hull government.
It seems that our thinking is very much alike Mr B - in the end I believe that "Which side will win the CS Civil War?" is a question which can only be answered on three key points:
(1) Can Texas be relied upon? (I actually think this might well be the Wild Card in this particular deck; we know that there has to be at least some degree of secessionist sentiment in the Lone Star State, but I think that perversely this section of the populace might be the least friendly to the Redemption League and their Eastern colleagues - if Knight wants to prevent a Homage to Catalonia, then he's probably going to have to be physically present in the State, which makes it more likely that he thinks of himself as a player in his own right and not just Featherston's VP).
Given that Texas is likely to be the heart of the Confederacy's covert rearmament (there's a good deal of oil, a great deal of empty space and best of all you can take advantage of the Border to pretend all these shiny new toys are Mexican when the inspector comes around) and the gateway to Mexico (which owes favours to the Freedom Party), I'd guess that it's a beating heart of the Filibuster War Effort - but one vulnerable to a stroke of politics.
(2) How will the US react to an Enemy Civil War? (I tend to agree that there's no question but that the Party of Reconciliation will be shown far more favour than the Axis of Revanchism - especially by the Socialists, or so one imagines - but there remains the issue of exactly what degree of material assistance this favour will allow the Liberals to enjoy and in terms of what form this assistance will take; there HAS to be a sizeable lobby at work in the US in favour of sitting back and popping corn while the Confederacy burns).
(3) Black, Grey or Red? (Quite bluntly the factor on which victory or defeat may hinge is the degree of support the Confederate Coloureds are willing to show for the Legitimists - Governor or no Governor, if the Blacks are for the Radical Liberals the Freedom Party loses Mississippi at the very least - but ironically the very worst they can do is maintain neutrality).
- If the Coloured Population decides to show themselves 'Black' (by refusing to take sides and let the White Man set about his brother without taking up arms himself) then it is very likely that the Legitimists are fighting a losing battle - quite bluntly the Freedom Party is likely to be strongest amongst Whites in the Black Belt states (given their attitude towards Coloured Confederates), so if the Blacks don't bother themselves to take up arms then the Stalwarts are likely to have the advantage in the crucial battlefront states.
As in the Election of '33 the Confederate Coloured population offers a potential counterbalance to the Freedom Party's ascendancy which might well be removed from play by the inability or unwillingness to play their part in an Anti-Partizan coalition.
- If the Confederate Coloureds turn out to be Reds, then this uprising at least equally impacts both Legitimists and Filbusters; it is quite probable that this would hurt Featherston's mob far more than the Government (given the Freedom Party are likely strongest in very those states where a Red Rebellion is most likely).
If nothing else this might even the odds in favour of the Government, especially if Hoover decides to take a hand in the whole affair as you suggest he might; on the other hand it risks making the Confederacy ungovernable and setting back race relations back to the most savage point in the vicious cycle at work in the Confederacy.
- Finally and possibly most unlikely the Coloured population MIGHT be persuaded to put on a Grey Coat (well, Butternut, but Grey sounds better!) and side with the Radical Liberal-headed Legitimists; while this might sound unlikely, the precedent of the Coloured Regiments in the Great War IS there and this might allow the Rad-Libs to recruit some hard-fighting regiments exactly where they need them most (as well as curtail the risk of a Red Rebellion), in return for the mere promise of citizenship.
The material gains from this course of action are so great that the political consequences might be overlooked - while the Radical Liberals could take it in stride, the most conservative Whigs might well pitch a fit if the complexion of the Electorate were to gain another shot of coffee, leading to the possibility of a fatal split within the Legitimist faction.
This Civil War might very well be won and lost based on how quickly the Legitimists can sell the idea of sicking Black Panthers on the Snake, as well as just how much consternation this induces in Congress and the Wider Population.