tl 191 wi: radical Liberals had won the 1933 presidential election

[Tsar of New Zealand]

So going into this thread, I didn't realise it was going to be a wargame scenario, and looking at the mechanics outlined above, I'll say it looks interesting but I'm gonna sit this one out; tabletop games have never really been my thing and doing so with people half a world away is a little logistically difficult for me to be getting on with.

I would add that Redemptionist or Legitimist sympathisers in Houston and Kentucky may play a part. But I don't really know.

I'm happy to stay here and discuss narrative, but if that's not the aim of the exercise I might sling my hook. Would anyone be too put out if I used some of this material in a TL some ways down the track?

 

[CCA]

So going into this thread, I didn't realise it was going to be a wargame scenario, and looking at the mechanics outlined above, I'll say it looks interesting but I'm gonna sit this one out; tabletop games have never really been my thing and doing so with people half a world away is a little logistically difficult for me to be getting on with.

I would add that Redemptionist or Legitimist sympathisers in Houston and Kentucky may play a part. But I don't really know.

I'm happy to stay here and discuss narrative, but if that's not the aim of the exercise I might sling my hook. Would anyone be too put out if I used some of this material in a TL some ways down the track?

Not at all! The primary aim of the thread was to discuss narrative so don't be put off with my stuff

 

[Ceslas]

An excellent start. I'll be interested in playing this tomorrow.

 

[Tiro]

I'm happy to stay here and discuss narrative, but if that's not the aim of the exercise I might sling my hook. Would anyone be too put out if I used some of this material in a TL some ways down the track?

Please be assured that the narrative of a CS Civil War remains the focus of thread (for the record I myself did not expect to be planting the seed of a Wargame when I began broadcasting ideas here); I suspect that discussion of the nuts and bolts of a Wargame will soon be migrating to the 'Shared Worlds' forum in any case!

As for the material, please go ahead … although please be warned that I may plead for credit where it's due to myself and Mister B (amongst others).

I would add that Redemptionist or Legitimist sympathisers in Houston and Kentucky may play a part. But I don't really know.

I'd guess they'd be hard at work as Arms Smugglers and Lobbyists in the United States Congress on behalf of their chosen faction (doubtless to the amusement or annoyance of everyone else), probably with the odd recruiting party amongst them.

I've long entertained the notion that the CS Civil War would see the creation of 'Continental Brigades' (drawn from the US and Canada), as well as International Brigades.

 

[Tiro]

Cool. What do people think about the rules so far? I'm going to keep thinking of some more with the aim of starting the wargame tomorrow.

May I please ask if by 'Tomorrow' you mean Sunday? (I shall be out for most of Saturday as I am planning to enjoy a party).

Might I also ask just when the Game will begin? I'd like to play some role, but I'm on Greenwich Mean Time and will probably be unable to play in Real Time. Nevertheless I would be very happy to help when asked, if I am able to offer any useful assistance.

 

[Tiro]

By the way, should you set up a 'CS Civil War' thread in the 'Shared Worlds' forum, please leave a link to the appropriate location here.

 

[Tiro]

For those who share my interest in a Randomly-Generated situation 'on the ground' at the start of the CS Civil War, I would like to submit the results of my first 'Roll Dice Online' session and CCA, I would very much appreciate it if you could check that my mathematics are sound.


THE SOUTH AT THE BEGINNING OF THE CS CIVIL WAR

ALABAMA - REDEMPTIONIST (3-1 = 2).

ARKANSAS - LEGITIMIST (9+2 = 11).

CHIHUAHUA - REDEMPTIONIST (3+1 = 4).

CUBA - LEGITIMIST (6+6 = 12).

FLORIDA - REDEMPTIONIST (9-6 = 3).

GEORGIA - REDEMPTIONIST (2+0 = 2).

LOUISIANA - LEGITIMIST (12*).

MISSISSIPPI - REDEMPTIONIST (7-5 = 2).

NORTH CAROLINA - IN CONTENTION (9-3 = 6)

SONORA - LEGITIMIST (7+1 = 8).

SOUTH CAROLINA - REDEMPTIONIST (8-3 = 5)

TENNESSEE - LEGITIMIST (8+0 = 8)

TEXAS - REDEMPTIONIST (11-6 = 5).

VIRGINIA - LEGITIMIST (12*).

*In both these cases I actually rolled a seven, but the dice and therefore our scoreboard don't actually go up to '13' and I therefore marked down the more appropriate number.

As a note I rolled out the results in the order given by CCA, but have chosen to list the States in Alphabetical Order for some reason (probably something to do with my fondness for neatness!); it might amuse you to know that I was rather astonished to see Cuba, Louisiana & Virginia answer "Present and Correct!" with such enthusiasm as neatly as troopers in a row after Texas proved such a reluctant Rebel State - clearly Willie Knight and the Redemption League are less than impressed with The Snake's chosen course. . .

So to sum up:-

LEGITIMIST - AR, CU, LA, SO, TN, VA.

REDEMPTIONIST - AL, CH, FL, GA, MS, SC, TX.

UNDECIDED - NC.

I would be interested to see the results of another person's dice-rolling; I'd like to compare and contrast the results of an entirely separate roll-out by an Independent Party with my own to get an idea of what the most likely breakdown of the Confederate States at the outbreak of their Civil War in '34 would be (I'll probably do another dice-rolling session myself for the sake of 'Best Two out of Three' but would like to have at least one independent sample for the purposes of this comparison).

 

[Ceslas]

Hmm, I cannot imagine the Legitimists holding out for long with the Freedomites in complete control of the Deep South. I'll have a roll.

THE SOUTH AT THE BEGINNING OF THE CS CIVIL WAR

ALABAMA - REDEMPTIONIST (5-1 = 4).

ARKANSAS - LEGITIMIST (10+2 = 12).

CHIHUAHUA - IN CONTENTION (5+1 = 6).

CUBA - LEGITIMIST (3+6 = 9).

FLORIDA - REDEMPTIONIST (9-6 = 3).

GEORGIA - LEGITIMIST (8+0 = 8).

LOUISIANA - LEGITIMIST (12*).

MISSISSIPPI - REDEMPTIONIST (1-5 = 1*).

NORTH CAROLINA - REDEMPTIONIST (8-3 = 5)

SONORA - LEGITIMIST (11+1 = 12).

SOUTH CAROLINA - REDEMPTIONIST (7-3 = 4)

TENNESSEE - LEGITIMIST (10+0 = 10)

TEXAS - REDEMPTIONIST (7-6 = 1).

VIRGINIA - LEGITIMIST (12*).

With the Legits in control of Georgia I'd say they have a better shot of holding out than in Tiro's rolls but it would still be a hard row to hoe with the loss of Alabama.

 

[Tiro]

I'll have to take a look at the maps to get a better idea of the state of things, but I agree that all things being equal the Legitimists are looking at a pretty tricky situation - having remembered that you re-roll for the loyalty of a State on the next turn if there is no clear outcome at first I rolled again for NC; a Six - Three equals another territorial gain for the Stalwarts - on the other hand the Legitimists appear to have a somewhat stronger grip on their territories (Chihuahua, Texas and South Carolina in particular seem somewhat lukewarm in their support for the Snake) and I believe that there are X-Factors which might help balance the odds somewhat.

Although I believe we may have to await further data from CCA to get some idea of what we can reasonably expect in that respect and how the Game might play out; I might have to create a thread for the discussion of that sort of thing in the 'Shared Worlds' section so we can do just that without losing the interest of HIM the Tsar of All the Kiwis, who I would dearly love to hear more from.

I shall probably do so Tomorrow if there is any expression of interest in continuing the discussion; I really would love to play out a CS Civil War, just to get an idea for how the randomness of Fate might affect the outcome of things.

I shall also have to do some more maths to help work out just how loyal the various States are to their factions according to my rolls (I shall probably Roll Out another Scenario using a different 'Online Roller' too if I get the chance).

 

[Ceslas]

Indeed, move this to Shared Worlds and you will get an audience. I guarantee it.

 

[Tiro]

May I please ask which part of that Forum you think would make the best location for a ROLLING OUT THE CS CIVIL WAR thread? (By the way I'm doing some number crunching as we type on the %-Control).

One more thing before I sign off; might I please ask if Chihuahua turned Legitimist or Stalwart after a second 'Pick a Side' roll? (for the sake of completeness!).

 

[Ceslas]

Just put it in the main forum. It doesn't really fit with any of the subforums, plus this is intended to be a lot simpler than anything that goes on in them.

Chihuahua ultimately went Legitimist.

 

[Tiro]

Interesting to know; your roll-out seems to have been somewhat kinder to the Legitimists than either of mine - more on that Tomorrow.

For the record I have now created a thread in the SHARED WORLDS forum for the CS Civil War; you may find it at the other end of this link:

https://www.alternatehistory.com/discussion/showthread.php?p=11462627#post11462627

 

[Tiro]

Legitimists
27,000 Regular Army
15,580 State Militia
42,580 total

Redeemers
3,000 Regular Army
14,420 State Militia
17,420 total

Looks like pretty long odds for the Redeemers, but then Featherston also has his Stalwarts, so how many of them are there likely to be:

OTL: the Nazis supposedly had about 400,000 Brownshirts by 1932. The non-black Confederate population is probably about 30% of the population of Germany, so assuming Featherston has a proportionate number of Stalwarts to the Nazi Brownshirt numbers that would maybe give Featherston about 120,000 Stalwarts.

One feels that 120, 000 Stalwarts would tilt things to the other side of the equation a little bit TOO much; might I suggest taking 12, 000 to represent the number of Stalwarts (A) willing to start and wage a full-blown Civil War upon the Confederate Government and (B) equipped in a hurry to a standard giving them a fighting chance against State Militia or even Regulars.

This would give the Redemptionists about 29 420 troops at their beck and call; they're still outnumbered but it seems logical to infer that defectors from nominally Legitimist State Regiments would increase their number to a bit over 30 000 scattered across the Confederacy (with the Legitimists equally spread out) , giving the Hull Administration an edge but not an insuperable advantage in the early days of the CS Civil War.

What happens when both sides start recruitment drives depends on just how much of the Country those factions are left with after the first phase of the Civil War (as well as just how friendly the locals feel towards the Governing faction).

By the way, I'd suggest that the Stalwarts are most likely to deploy in force within those States that have a Partizan governor, since those are the states most likely to open their arsenals and storehouses.

I would also suggest that finding manpower in the Confederacy is going to be a good bit less difficult than equipping them to an acceptable standard of military preparedness - at least initially (I'm not necessarily talking about sidearms, but boots and beans and blankets ... also bombs).

 

[Tiro]

Note: The following results were rolled up using the online d12 at Wizards of the Coast.

THE SOUTH AT THE BEGINNING OF THE CS CIVIL WAR (II)

ALABAMA - REDEMPTIONIST (3-1 = 2).

ARKANSAS - LEGITIMIST (6+2 = 8).

CHIHUAHUA - REDEMPTIONIST (3+1 = 4).

CUBA - LEGITIMIST (7+6 = 13 aka '12').

FLORIDA - REDEMPTIONIST (8-6 = 2).

GEORGIA - LEGITIMIST (8).

LOUISIANA - LEGITIMIST (8+6 = 14 aka '12').

MISSISSIPPI - REDEMPTIONIST (10-5 = 5).

NORTH CAROLINA - REDEMPTIONIST (3-3 = 0 aka '1').

SONORA - CONTESTED (6+1 = 7)/LEGITIMIST (9+1 = 10).

SOUTH CAROLINA - LEGITIMIST (12-3 = 9).

TENNESSEE - REDEMPTIONIST (2).

TEXAS - REDEMPTIONIST (10-6 = 4).

VIRGINIA - LEGITIMIST (3+6 = 9).


Summed Up:-

-:REDEMPTIONIST: AL, CH, FL, MS, NC, TN, TX.

-:LEGITIMIST: AR, CU, GA, LA, SC, VA.

-:CONTESTED: SO (later Legitimist).



By the looks of things a pretty tricky State of Affairs for the Legitimists strategically (especially given the troubling Isolation of Virginia); on the other hand it must be remembered that the Stalwarts are likely to start at a numerical disadvantage - due to the Regular Army remaining under Government orders - so there is a strong possibility that calculated offensives early in the War can improve the strategic position.


Now taking the percentage of State Control as an indication of just how much of the State Regiments the twin factions can rely upon to fight on their behalf (with the dissenters striking out for the nearest State controlled by their faction) then by my calculations this gives the Legitimists 13, 920 troopers (about 14 Regiments) and the Remptionists about 16, 080 (roughly 16 regiments) although I worked this out with Pencil and Paper after using an online percentage calculator to work out the breakdown - I'm willing to post the original figures by State if anyone wants to check my maths - so please don't take my Numbers as unquestionably perfect.

Adding on 27, 000 Regulars for the Hull Administration and 12, 000 Stalwarts for the Snake gives one 40, 920 Legitimists and 28, 080 Redemptionists under arms in the first days of the Civil War (although the Stalwarts have better recruitment prospects, with roughly 48 Manpower points per turn to the Legitimist 40).

I could go on (though only a little further), but please permit me to finish with this digression HERE for the Night; I'm not even sure anyone could possibly be taking an interest in all this.

 

[Ceslas]

I am and they will if you do something concrete with it.

 

[bguy]

One feels that 120, 000 Stalwarts would tilt things to the other side of the equation a little bit TOO much; might I suggest taking 12, 000 to represent the number of Stalwarts (A) willing to start and wage a full-blown Civil War upon the Confederate Government and (B) equipped in a hurry to a standard giving them a fighting chance against State Militia or even Regulars.

The Stalwarts may have numbers, but they are also dispersed all over the Confederacy, lack the training, discipline, and organization to operate effectively in large military formations, and don't have access to the heavy equipment that the regular Confederate Army has. Thus even with a 120,000 Stalwarts, I would probably give the overall advantage to the Legitimist forces. If you shrink the Redeemers forces even further then it will likely be a very short conflict. The Legitimists already have better trained, organized, and equipped troops. Give them numerical superiority on top of that and they should win very easily. (It's also doubtful that Wily Knight would go along with Featherston's power play, unless Featherston can demonstrate he has a sufficiently large force of men willing to fight for him.)

By the way, I'd suggest that the Stalwarts are most likely to deploy in force within those States that have a Partizan governor, since those are the states most likely to open their arsenals and storehouses.

Certainly it will be a lot easier to get the Stalwarts organized into proper military units in states where they can be grafted onto the existing militia forces. Though stripping the state militia arsenals of weaponry to equip his Stalwarts means robbing his state militia units. (Featherston might prefer that since the Stalwarts are probably more loyal to him than the state militia units will be, but overall it probably weakens his total military force if he is trading equipped state militia units for equipped Stalwart units.)

 

[Tiro]

I am and they will if you do something concrete with it.

Well I'd really love to play out a CS Civil War-game just to have a foundation on which I can build a storyline, but I haven't the faintest idea how to run one!

That being said I shall probably do my best to work out which CSA viewpoint characters would side with which Faction and which would act as Wildcards (I'm looking at YOU Miss Colleton!), as well as just what sort of antics they might get up to in the course of this conflict ... as well as how they might just prove the hinge on which History might turn.

 

[Tiro]

If you shrink the Redeemers forces even further then it will likely be a very short conflict. The Legitimists already have better trained, organized, and equipped troops. Give them numerical superiority on top of that and they should win very easily. (It's also doubtful that Wily Knight would go along with Featherston's power play, unless Featherston can demonstrate he has a sufficiently large force of men willing to fight for him.)

To be fair the Regulars are probably going to be almost as scattered as the Stalwarts at the beginning of the War and are likely to be victims of bushwhacking from the very earliest opportunity (especially in non-Legitimist states).

An excellent point - I should have stated that 12,000 was the number of Stalwarts I see as available in the 'Deployment Phase' of the CS Civil War (the perils of thinking half in narrative and half in wargaming terms); put simply I see 120, 000 as a very reasonable figure for the number of Stalwarts available as a Reserve available to the Partizans, but I do believe that it would take some while to activate and arm them all (with 12, 000 as a 'First Wave' if you will).

Not least because I have serious suspicions that at least some portion of The Stalwarts also comprise a part of the Black Staff 'Reserves' (that unofficial back-up to the Standing Army kept on the understanding that an army less than 100 000 strong is more of a road-block than a serious fighting force when you have unfriendly neighbours at Home AND abroad).


Mister B, might I please ask a related question?

Assuming that the numbers for Regulars & Legitimist militias and Stalwarts & Partizan militia represent a bare minimum for each side, just what do you think is the upper limit on the Manpower available to both sides of the CS Civil War? (How many men do you think the Confederacy can field during the 1930s and what proportion do you think would pick each side?).

 

[bguy]

Assuming that the numbers for Regulars & Legitimist militias and Stalwarts & Partizan militia represent a bare minimum for each side, just what do you think is the upper limit on the Manpower available to both sides of the CS Civil War? (How many men do you think the Confederacy can field during the 1930s and what proportion do you think would pick each side?).

Interesting question. OTL, the US mobilized nearly 10% of its population during World War 2, and the CSA mobilized a similar percentage of its population during the American Civil War, so that seems to be a reasonable estimate for the level of population that will take up arms in a total war scenario.

Utilizing OTL 1930 census data, the Confederate population around this time would be somewhere around 33.47 million. (I figure the 1930 numbers are probably a decent estimate for what the CSA population would be around 1934 given the much higher casualties the southern states suffered in TL-191's version of the Great War compared to OTL's First World War.)

Thus mobilizing 10% of the populace would mean potentially 3.347 million men in arms. Assuming about a third of that number is African-Confederates then that would mean something potentially around 2.2 million White and Latino troops, and 1.1 million African-Confederate troops.

As for how they would be split: I would imagine Featherston won something from 40-45% of the popular vote in the version of the 1933 election we've laid out. That said, not everyone that voted for Featherston would be willing to fight for him, so the big variables for how many of his electoral supporters will be willing to fight for him are likely to be:

1) Do the Redeemers win any early victories?
2) Does Wily Knight commit the Redemption League to backing Featherston?
2) Does Amos Mizell have the Tin Hats endorse Featherston?
3) Is the Legitimist government openly getting supported by the United States?
4) Is the Legitimist government employing African-Confederate troops?
5) Has large scale Red rebellion broken out?

Assuming moderate early Redeemer victories, Wily Knight and Amos Mizell both supporting the Redeemer cause, and the Legitimist government not initially employing African-Confederate troops or getting openly supported by the United States, then I would probably assume Featherston could get about a third of the White and Latino troop pool to fight for him. (Though obviously that percentage could increase dramatically if large scale Red rebellion breaks out or if the Legitimist government starts utilizing African-Confederate troops.)