tl 191 wi: radical Liberals had won the 1933 presidential election

[Strategos' Risk]

The Radical Liberals seem like quite a mystery to me. For one thing, I don't know how they ever came to become an opposition party of note, between 1) having radical in their name, 2) only having a base in the Hispanic former other-country states. Maybe the Whigs were basically a one-party system (similar to the PRI in Mexico) up until the Freedom Party- then it became a one-party system under them.

Reading over the wikia, it seems like the Rad Libs were basically bourgeois businessmen and large landowners in the ex-Mexican states who were opposed to the traditional Southern slavocratic aristocracy. Kinda grim that the CSA never had its equivalent to the People's Party/Populists - working class agrarian populist parties, but then we're talking about a country built on slavery and Jim Crow to the max, so that's even more grim.

What could happen is that under Huey Long's influence (an "imperial vice presidency?") is that they do a FDR-style pivot and become a party that manages to appeal to the working class in a way that attacks the base of the Freedom Party. Maybe for starters is that they realize that the Freedom Party is attacking their traditional base in the ex-Mexican states by appealing to the small farmers who had previously been controlled by the large landowners there. So under Rad Lib former presidential candidate José Doroteo Arango Arámbula (he does seem to kind of fade into obscurity in the books, doesn't he) they do some land reform or whatever progressive policies to rebrand themselves, and so the Freedom Party doesn't manage to gain success there. Later on, with figures like Long and Arango in power, the Rad Libs are able to put up a fight in terms of getting support.

 

[Tiro]

Strategos, my own vision of what may follow a Legitimist Victory in the CS Civil War and a Long Presidency would be a Radical Liberal retrenchment; given that in the Turtledove canon Mr Long is crafty enough to borrow inspiration from Mr Featherston's tactics in the interests of Louisiana and one Huey Long, I definitely imagine that he would seek to appeal to the Poor Whites and Hispanics of the Confederacy - most probably by finally setting up the Rad-Libs as a purely Populist Party and ramping up the belligerence of their Rhetoric where the United States is concerned.

I'm not entirely certain that Mister Long would let the Radical Liberal tradition of Racial Tolerance get in the way of treating the Confederate Coloureds in such a way that Johnny Q. Public (formerly Johnny Stalwart) is given to understand that they needn't worry about the Rad-Libs letting the Negroes get out of line to add insult to the injuries suffered during the course of the War.

Hopefully he'd place more emphasis on twisting the United States tail feathers rather than on winning over bigots at the ballot for the sake of his Presidency, but with politicians who knows? In any case I suspect that the Long Presidency would be a deeply controversial one (assuming he avoids assassination) although I tend to assume that he'd do his best to hand-pick the next President and manage him as an Eminence Gris rather than try running for a second term.

If he does well enough the Longs are almost certainly going to become the 'Kennedy's of the Confederacy' as it were; I think this outcome not impossible, especially if Long can play the Socialist desire for an accommodation with the South as skilfully as Featherston did (and thereby secure a Plebiscite).

I don't think that the United States would enter the Second Great War of their own free will without the Confederacy to pull them in - and I'd bet that the British Empire would much rather they stay out too, at the very least - but I'd bet money that the US is going to wage War on the Japanese once again sooner than later, if only to salve their pride after the burning humiliations of the Pacific War … which would make it all the more important to keep the Confederacy quite in their backyard while their fighting men are far-flung on foreign adventures.

Under these circumstances the CS could be in an excellent position to play Honest Broker between the US and the British Empire, keeping the Old Lion quiet while the American Eagle sinks it's talons into the thrusting young Japanese Tiger (and if the CS plays its part well enough I suspect that at least SOME of those little caribbean islands could turn grey overnight by way of repayment and in the interests of easing the burdens of occupation).

- If the Radical Liberals DO court the sort of voters who formerly supported the Freedom Party, one can imagine that the Black Voters of the Confederacy are in for a tough time (and while this assumes that the Legitimists would revive the Black Regiments, I think this a not-unreasonable assumption given that a frightening proportion of White manpower would be fighting for the other side as well as voting for them) unless they can find a patron to back them in Congress.

Somewhat ironically (given it's roots as 'The Party of the Patricians') one suspects that the likeliest candidate for this role would be the Whig Party; while it may not be unreasonable to think that the newly-enfranchised veterans of the Black Regiments might look to create their own party (or just add their vote to the CS Socialist Party), I would argue that a more practicable strategy would be to ally themselves to an Establishment Party rather than a Party at the fringes (Blacks teaming up with Rich Whites to counter Poor Whites and Hispanics).

While this may sound somewhat unlikely consider this - The Poor Whites and Hispanics are almost certain to never vote in another Whig President in the foreseeable future (especially if Long works on them as he is likely to), which means that the Gallant Old Party needs to find a whole lot of votes from somewhere. Consider now that The Whigs are the Party of Manumission and the Party of the Black Regiments (I think that the most likely revival of same during the CS Civil War rests on the WHIGS asking for them, for the same reason that "Only Nixon could go to China"), which gives them reasonable grounds for painting themselves as the Party of Progress in Race Relations.

I'm not sure what the long-term prospects of this alliance are, but in the short term it helps keep the Whigs from becoming a near-nonentity at the ballot box - and more to the point it hands them an issue which allows them to paint themselves as a Party of the Future rather than the Party of Past Glories (working to extend the franchise to the Black Population would also raise the Public Image of the Whig Party in the eyes of the World).

As a side note, I may have mentioned elsewhere that I imagine Samuel Longstreet served with Black Regiments during the Great War; I imagine that given this and his Grandfather's example he could well be the key figure in revitalising the Whig Party as the Champion of Civic Rights for ALL Confederates.

Well, something like that; they'd probably ground their pitch in rhetoric concerning the importance of restoring equilibrium to the Confederacy and not merely crushing the Freedom Party but learning by it's awful example that the future lies not in the repression of the Negroes but in co-operation (while holding up their rock-solid record of suspicion where the Yankees are concerned and their loyalty to Confederate Traditions to indicate that Coloured folks that vote Whig will be marching in the ranks and not getting out of line).

 

[Tiro]

The Radical Liberals seem like quite a mystery to me. For one thing, I don't know how they ever came to become an opposition party of note, between 1) having radical in their name, 2) only having a base in the Hispanic former other-country states. Maybe the Whigs were basically a one-party system (similar to the PRI in Mexico) up until the Freedom Party- then it became a one-party system under them.

In all fairness to the Whigs and to the Confederacy it might be more accurate to describe that nation as a One-and-a-Half Party state prior to the Great War; there's a sufficient degree of disagreement and a sufficient respect for Democracy that an Opposition Party forms, but not really enough Ideological difference between the two parties or a sufficiently juicy hook upon which to hang a candidacy for the Radical Liberals to win the Presidency and thereby allow the Confederacy to matriculate into a Two-Party system.

That is there was not any sufficient hook on which to hang an Opposition Party victory PRIOR TO THE GREAT WAR - after that the Perfect War Record of the Whigs was a thing of the past and so was the Confederate Political consensus (hence the increased Radical Liberal presence in Congress and the debut of no less than three new opposition parties - the Socialists, the Freedom Party and the Redemption League).

Unfortunately the wrong party won and the Confederacy became a genuine One-Party State.

Reading over the wikia, it seems like the Rad Libs were basically bourgeois businessmen and large landowners in the ex-Mexican states who were opposed to the traditional Southern slavocratic aristocracy.

I'd guess that you could add the catholic vote (hence the Hispanic Elites), the pacifist vote (particularly those looking to avoid another War with the United States) and probably those looking for reforms in the Confederate States - I have said before that I suspect Woodrow Wilson was nominated by the Whigs to plunder the Progressive vote before the Rad-Libs could ride it into the Confederate Presidency on their own behalf.

Kinda grim that the CSA never had its equivalent to the People's Party/Populists - working class agrarian populist parties, but then we're talking about a country built on slavery and Jim Crow to the max, so that's even more grim.

The problem is that there WAS a working class Agrarian and Populist Party - it was led by Jake Featherston and it did just swimmingly at the Ballot Box before it threw away its successes on the field of War (and the Confederacy with it); having said that I would like to point out that the 'Jim Crow' elements are likely to have entered Confederate society only after the Great War (I've drawn parallels between Reconstruction and the South during the 'American Empire' period in the novels before and shall likely do so again).

Prior to that something a little more like the Antebellum South with sharecroppers in place of slavery is likely to have been the norm (which was almost certainly a major source of problems for the Confederacy during the Great War, since this was the 20th Century and not the 19th).


One theme that I have done my best to build my mental image of the Radical Liberal Party upon over at FILLING THE GAPS is the idea that before the Great War Populism was probably not going to do very well at the ballot box - given that the Confederate elites were almost as unenthusiastic about Poor Whites voting as they were about the Negro franchise prior to the War of Secession and would likely continue to be so - hence the Radical Liberal attempt to make itself the Progressive Party instead (before being thwarted in this attempt by a Whig volte-face almost as successful and almost as audacious as Longstreet's Manumission amendment).

After the Great War Populism was likely more practicable (I'd guess that the Whigs would have to do away with any restrictions on White Suffrage to keep the returning soldiery from lynching them for their failure), but the Radical Liberals - given their policies of Racial Tolerance and Reconciliation with the United States - are likely to have been caught on the horns of a dilemma.

Populism MIGHT offer them a way into the Grey House OR such an approach on their part might be construed as the next most offensive thing to outright Socialism and used to bury their chances of Election in a landslide … for the OTHER Party.

The latter is of course exactly what happened; the Revanchism and Racist Bigotry of the Freedom Party allowed them to appeal to the Popular Vote without the faintest whiff of Socialism (probably aided and abetted by Rhetoric painting the Radical Liberals as the Party of Red Rebellion for daring to make any attempt to subordinate the Confederate Common Man to their <insert Conspiracy Theory nonsense here> AND THAT'S THE TRUTH! FREEDOM! FREEDOM! FREEDOM!" <Terrible Racket and Funny Salute>).

Basically the Freedom Party won out over the Radical Liberals because they not only beat them to the punch, they brought knuckle-dusters and some very nasty friends.

 

[Tiro]

I've actually been contemplating just how the Confederate Election of 1933 that brought about the CS Civil War played out:-

^Now I'm using this map as the basis for my speculations, specifically taking it to represent the absolute minimum the Radical Liberals and the Whigs can command between them - for the record I imagine that the Radical Liberals did well in Chihuahua despite Freedom Party efforts there because Doroteo Arango threw the weight of his 'Favourite Son' prestige behind that party.^


The map above gives the Radical Liberals 44 EV and the Whigs 24 EV. Now assuming that AT MINIMUM The Snake carries Texas and Virginia then that gives him a score of 48 EV (which actually puts him ahead of either the Radical Liberals or the Whigs, assuming that none of these parties carry further states).

Leaving aside the Whig 24 votes then that leaves 105 votes for the Freedom Party or the Radical Liberals to chew a working majority out of; to start with I would guess that Mississippi and Tennessee (which both have Freedom Party governors) would stick with the Snake after some application of the Sweet Science of Persuasion Stalwart-style in order to convince local rivals that they REALLY don't want to vote for the Other Guy (Favourite Son or no, I'm not sure Mr Hull stands much of a chance under those circumstances).

This brings the Snake up to 80 EV.

Now I would guess that the best bet for the Radical Liberals to add to their bare minimum would be either North Carolina or Georgia or Alabama; we know the Freedom Party is fairly strong in Alabama so I'd guess that we should go with NC and GA for now.

Which brings the Rad-Libs up to 85 EV.

Now the Freedom Party has actually been putting some EFFORT into Sonora, so we'll add that little state to the Tally for Featherston.

The Stalwarts and the Rad-Libs are therefore neck-and-neck at 85 EV.

Now we come to the last unaffiliated states and a sticky question - more on that later - but for the sake of giving The Snake a little hope (also because Florida is due to elect a Freedom Party governor in '31) we'll give the Southern Sunshine State to the Stalwarts.

Bringing the Freedom Party vote to 96EV Vs 85 RL and 24 W.

Now I can easily see Alabama or Tennessee becoming a swing state in this Election (a 'Favourite Son' vote for Hull clashing with a somewhat discredited Freedom Party majority), but the Cotton state not only lacks a Freedom Party governor it also possesses a PoV character so let's make AL the state in which the Rad-Libs and the Freedom Party find themselves caught up in an Electoral Dispute comparable to those seen in the US Presidential Elections of 1876 and 2000 in Our Timeline.

If it swings to the Freedom Party then they have 114EV and a clear majority; if it swings Radical Liberal then THEY have 103EV and a slightly smaller majority. If the Whigs are going to spit in the Snake's eye and play kingmaker then it has to be before the vexed question of Alabama is settled - adding their support in the Electoral College to the Radical Liberal tally while the 18EV of Alabama are in play should give a total of 109EV to the Radical Liberals and make a Radical Liberal Administration a going concern AT LAST.

Which probably won't stop some Rad-Lib Dirty Tricks man from taking steps to add those 18EV to their tally, giving them a final total of 127EV and leaving Featherston fit for Treason when he finds out just what sort of knavery has handed his rivals the Presidency - rigged Ballots are after all HIS Party Trick!

Now I don't know nearly enough about US Election Cycles or Politics to come up with a more logical CS Presidential Election, so I've come up with this stuff as it occurs to me rather than as events would have unfolded in Timeline-191; please feel free to suggest a more logical sequence of events!

Also, does my Math actually hold together?

 

[Strategos' Risk]

What if Willy Knight's Redemption League breaks from the Freedom Party? What happens with Texas' EV's being out of the picture?

 

[bguy]

Well in the canon timeline it appears that Featherson won North Carolina, Alabama, and Mississippi pretty early on election night. That suggests he was really strong in all three of those states, so I suspect he would at least still win North Carolina and Mississippi in this alternate time line. That gives him an initial 35 electoral votes for the Freedom Party. (Alabama is a little more complicated, so it will be discussed further below.)

I likewise agree with you that the Freedom Party is almost certain to win Texas. It went for Featherston in 1921 and even in 1927, and it elected a Freedom Party Governor in 1925 (and presumably in 1929), so its hard to see Featherston not winning it in the presidential race. That gets the Freedom Party up to 68 EVs.

I would also give the Freedom Party Florida since they seem to be pretty strong there (they carried the state in the 1921 presidential race and elected a Governor there in 1931). Furthermore, with the Freedom Party controlling the Governorship there, they control the State Militia, which means there is no force in the state that will be able to keep the Stalwarts under control. That gets the Freedomites up to 79 EVs.

I rather doubt the Featherston would carry Virginia. Despite it being his home state, Featherston never seemed to do that well there. He didn't carry the state in 1921 or 1927 and in 1931 the Freedom Party failed to elect a Governor there. Plus it's Sam Longstreet's home state, so he should be pretty strong there. So that's 15 EVs for the Whigs.

Likewise as to Arkansas since the Whigs won in the canon timeline, they are certain to win it here as well. That gets them up to an initial 27 EVs.

I agree with Cuba and Louisiana as Radical Liberal states. Chihuahua is more questionable since the Freedom Party won the Governorship there in 1931 which means here also the state militia will be backing the Stalwarts. However, with the Freedom Party less popular in this timeline, it should have both considerably less resources than in the canon timeline (wealthy Confederates are going to be less willing to make donations to a party that murders its political opponents) while also having greater demand on its resources since it is facing a much tougher election in the more populous eastern states. Thus the Freedom Party will have to make some cuts somewhere, and its operations in the Spanish speaking states are the most likely to take that cut. And with favorite son Arango leading the charge against them in the state, it is plausible enough the Rad Libs could pull off the win here.

(I would also likely give the Rad Libs Sonora for the same reason, which bumps the Rad Libs up to an initial total of 47 EVs.

Thus with the Freedom Party at 79 EVs, the Whigs at 27 and the Rad Libs at 47, the election is going to be decided by South Carolina, Georgia, Alabama, and Tennessee.

South Carolina I think goes Freedom. Like Florida, the Freedom Party elected a Governor there in 1931, so again they control the State Militia there and the Stalwarts are free to run wild. That gives the Freedom Party an enormous advantage in the state and should be enough for them to carry the state. That gets Featherston up to 91 EVs.

I doubt the Freedom Party wins Georgia. We never hear about them having any state wide victories there before 1933 in the novels, so I don't think they were that strong there.Otherwise, we don't know much about the strength of the party's in Georgia, but since it is a Deep South state, it probably favors the Whigs over the Rad Libs, so I would give it to the Whigs. That gets the Whigs up to 47 EVs.

Then there is Alabama. In the novels this state went for Featherston in a big way in the 1933 election. (It was called very early in the night.) However, Hugo Black was an Alabama boy, and he was murdered in Alabama. Thus the backlash against the Freedom Party from that killing is likely to be stronger here than in any other state. (Especially since Alabama was also the state where President Hampton was murdered.) Alabama also lacks a Freedom Party Governor at the time of the 1933 election, and there is a good chance President Mitchel declared martial law in the state following the murder of Hugo Black, which would severely curtail what the Stalwarts can do. Thus with all of those factors in mind, I think the Whigs probably pull it off here, which gets them up to 65 EVs.

As for Tennessee, on it's face, it should go Featherston. It voted Freedom Party in both 1921 and 1927, and it seems likely that it elected a Freedom Party Governor in 1929, so again the State Militia will not be keeping the Stalwarts in check. Still, this is Hull's home state, so he is probably reasonably popular here and the mountainous eastern part of the state should be strong Radical Lib territory that isn't easy for the Stalwarts to attack. It's also likely that much of the Confederate Army is stationed in Tennessee since it is right on the US border. The presence of the army should help reign in the Stalwarts somewhat. Thus lets have Tennessee end up to close to call with both Featherston and Hull claiming victory.

Thus the initial election results are the Freedom Party 91 EVs, the Whigs 65 EVs, and the Radical Liberals 47 EVs, with Tennessee undecided. With Tennessee seemingly deadlocked, it will probably fall to the Confederate Congress to decide who won the state, at which point it is easy to imagine a Radical Liberal-Whig coalition, which after considering all the evidence, is shocked, shocked to find that Hull won the state.

That leaves the final electoral count at: Freedom Party 91 EVs, the Whigs 65 EVs, and the Radical Liberals also 65 EVs. No one has a majority in the electoral college, so the election goes to the Confederate House, where the same Radical Liberal-Whig coalition that gave Tennessee to Hull, elects him as the President. (Even though the Whigs won the same number of electoral votes as the Radical Libs, the Radical Libs won more states than the Whigs did, and since the House votes by state, that puts the Radical Liberals in the better position to be the senior partner in the coalition.) Featherston is of course outraged, feeling he was robbed of his victory in Tennessee, and that he only lost Alabama due to Confederate Army bayonets, so he responds by preparing for civil war.

(Note: Even if Featherston wins Tennessee, he still doesn't have an electoral college majority in this scenario. However, that would leave the Whigs far ahead of the Rad Libs in electoral votes, which would probably mean President Longstreet rather than President Hull. Thus we either have to have Hull win Tennessee or we have to have Georgia go Rad Lib instead of Whig to make the scenario work. Given how strong the Freedom Party appears to be in Tennessee in the novels, the second option may actually be more plausible, but I thought the first option was a little more interesting, so I went with it. If we go the other way, having Featherston win Tennessee while Hull wins Georgia means that the final electoral college results are: Freedom Party 109, Radical Liberals 67, Whigs 45. Featherston is real close to a majority but didn't quite make it, so the election still goes to the Confederate House.)

 

[Tiro]

Mister B, please let me thank you for once again taking the time to think over this particular contribution to Timeline-191 Speculative History and for once again suggesting Improvements to it (By this point we can safely call it a co-creation, although feel free to disassociate yourself from my more groundless rambling!).

Well in the canon timeline it appears that Featherson won North Carolina, Alabama, and Mississippi pretty early on election night. That suggests he is really strong in all three of those states, so I suspect he would still win them in this alternate time line.

I agree that Mississippi is definitely a lock and that North Carolina is a serious possibility (given that even in Our Timeline it was the headquarters of an American Fascist party, the Silver Legion aka the Silver Shirts - which would seem to be the source for that name, although it seems peculiar to attach it to a British Fascist Party*); I would however like to suggest that Alabama might be a much harder nut to crack, given that it lacks a Freedom Party Governor and the fact that the manslaughter of native son Hugo Black might well sour the floating voters on the Freedom Party.

That being said I rather like the idea that this ranks Alabama with Tennessee in the 'To be Determined' limbo rather than throwing it to the Radical Liberals; I would suggest that this is a Golden Opportunity to crank up the tension as the votes are recounted … and show the Freedom Party committing a little Electoral Fraud all its own, with Jefferson Pinkard acutely uncomfortable that the Party has come to such a parlous state of affairs in his own Home State that they have to CHEAT in order to win.

Making it even more of a stunning blow to the Stalwarts when the Rad-Libs fight fire with fire in the Volunteer State and WIN (even more so when they not only win Tennessee but the Election).


*However it is interesting to note that William Dudley Pelley, the founder of the Silver Legion and it's political wing the Christian Party, was in fact a Yankee from Massachusetts who took one look a the Russian Revolution then conceived a burning hatred for Jews and Communists - it is easy to see his political career dying a particularly painful death in the USA of Timeline-191 following the 'Greenback' Election of '21 that put the Socialists into Powell House, so it is eminently possible that he might go looking for greener pastures elsewhere.

The Confederacy would likely be his first choice given it's close proximity to the USA and the compatibility of his ideology with that of the Tin Hats and other proto-Stalwarts, but for obvious reasons he might well prefer to seek after opportunities elsewhere (possibly even as far afield as Old England, where hatred for Germany and Ireland might well outweigh resentment of the United States): it's not impossible that his successes in linking up with Mosley might well have persuaded Featherston to make Pelley an offer allowing him to adopt Confederate citizenship as Quid Pro Quo for his influence over Mosley (and thereby over the British Government).

I likewise agree with you that the Freedom Party is almost certain to win Texas. It went for Featherston in 1921 and even in 1927, and it elected a Freedom Party Governor in 1925 (and presumably in 1929), so its hard to see Featherston not winning it in the presidential race.

Especially given that Willie Knight is still almost certain to be Featherston's VP candidate; he does not strike me as a man to cry over the odd egg cracked in the making of an omelette (especially if he gets handed a nice Silver Spoon to pick up his fair share of the dish).

If any split DOES develop between the Redemption League and the Freedom Party during the CS Civil War, I suspect it would be grounded more on expediency (and perhaps a perfectly-reasonable reluctance to watch the World Burn even if one must therefore allow one's enemies to claim it no more than slightly scorched).

Plus it's Sam Longstreet's home state, so he should be pretty strong there.

And since Georgia is a Deep South state, it probably favors the Whigs over the Rad Libs, so I would give it to them.

Given that Georgia is Grandfather James Longstreet's home state, it might well be pleased to regard itself as the birthplace of the Whig Party (which might explain the use of orange - that isn't citrus, it's a PEACH!) and therefore incline to vote for them after being persuaded that the Freedom Party is NOT an acceptable substitute.

Likewise as to Arkansas since the Whigs won in the canon timeline, they are certain to win it here as well.

It's rather nice to see that his Home State still loves President Mitchel, even if almost nobody else in the entire Confederacy does!

It's also likely that much of the Confederate Army is stationed in Tennessee since it is right on the US border. The presence of the army may help reign in the Stalwarts somewhat.

Given that Army is under the authority of C. Burton Mitchel III and General Stuart, I seriously doubt that it's going to be doing the Stalwarts any favours (except hand them back their hands once they've finished whipping on anyone that lets their enthusiasm for Featherston get out of hand). That being said I doubt they'll be doing the Rad-Libs any particular favours, merely seeking to ensure that the Election plays out as fairly and with as little criminal violence as possible.

Thus the initial election results are the Freedom Party 109 EVs, the Radical Liberals 47 EVs, the Whigs 47 EVs, and Tennessee undecided. With Tennessee seemingly deadlocked, it will probably fall to the Confederate Congress to decide who won the state, at which point it is easy to imagine a Radical Liberal-Whig coalition, which after considering all the evidence, is shocked, shocked to find that Hull won the state.

It is interesting to wonder just who the dealers on either side of that particular smoke-filled room would be; I suspect that the likes of Hull and Longstreet and Long might well be under a level of observation too close for the comfortable degree of anonymity required for some SERIOUS political double-dealing.

That leaves the final electoral count at: Freedom Party 109 EVs, Radical Liberals 65 EVs, and Whigs 47 EVs. No one has a majority in the electoral college, so the election goes to the Confederate House, where the same Radical Liberal-Whig coalition that gave Tennessee to Hull, elects him as the President. And Featherston convinced (with pretty good reason) that the election was stolen from him, prepares for civil war.

If it weren't for the fact that he's a demagogue and an incipient genocidal monomaniac who's been fighting dirty by breaking heads at the Ballot Box ever since his first Election one could almost feel sorry for him …

… as things stand I can only say that in this case Stealing Home is almost as sweet as pinching a cookie from someone else's plate!

On a more serious note I actually didn't realise that one needed a Supermajority, rather than a simple majority, to claim Victory in the Electoral College - I'll have to remember that point of procedure.

 

[Tiro]

Speaking of preparation for a Civil War, I was thinking just the other day about just how long it would take for the Snake to strike in the wake of a Hull Administration victory; I'd guess that the various shenanigans at the Ballot Box in Tennessee (and possibly in Alabama too), as well as the necessity of working out some deal between those Age-Old rivals the Whigs and the Rad-Libs would leave the Confederacy waiting for a clear outcome well into the first months of 1934.

Now while one suspects that most would expect The Snake to lash out almost immediately by launching an attack on Inauguration Day (quite probably including his own Stalwarts who are, quite bluntly, Thugs one and all), I seriously doubt that Featherston would be that stupid; everything we known about him suggests that for all the virulent outrage he channels into his rhetoric Jake Featherston is a man who likes to have all his ducks in a row before he strikes - he isn't a particularly reckless man, more unrelenting and callous.

My guess is that The Snake is smart enough to contest the outcome of the '33 Election in a court of Law and in the court of Public Opinion for at least part of 1934 and possibly for the remainder of that Year (doubtless seething all the while, but quite aware that if he strikes on Inauguration day in '34 both the Radical Liberals AND The Whigs will be ready and waiting to Jump him - they will not only be ready, but EAGER to stamp down on him until they grind his bones to make their bread).

I was actually thinking that either July of '34 or February '35 might fit the bill; while I personally think that 4th July 1934 might be a little too early (I imagine that Featherston isn't interested in Secession, he wants to control ALL the South and will therefore aim to launch a coup de main) it is not impossible that the Stalwarts simply won't wait any longer. On the other hand if Featherston were to launch his Coup a year to the day after the inauguration of the Hull Administration then that allows him the symbolism of a TRUE and RIGHTFUL President seeking to claim his own, as well as put all the pieces into place for a Successful Coup (in theory, if not necessarily in practice).

If nothing else then striking in February 1935 allows the Confederacy to take a good long look at the Radical Liberals in Government (and a good-sized portion of the Confederacy is unlikely to admire what it sees), as well as allowing some time for the Radical-Liberal/Whig understanding that secured the election of President Hull to collapse into their more characteristic state of Loyal Opposition (in fact I would guess that Featherston's failure to allow for a renewal of Rad-Lib/Whig co-operation in the face of an immediate threat from HIM might well be what sinks his chances of immediate success in the CS Civil War).

Looking at February of 1935 the 22nd of that month (a date associated with Jefferson Davis, as his status moved from 'provisional' to 'official' in 1862) falls on a Friday; as I understand it Government departments close for the Weekend which would slow the speed of any Liberal response to the Stalwarts as they strike and offer the aggressor an advantage (on the other hand allowing a Government with Huey Long in it a year in office to address the problem of the Freedom Party is a mixed blessing - the Radical Liberal rule is likely to infuriate the Stalwarts, but proceedings against the sort of Criminal Violence and Bullying the Freedom Party relies upon is also quite likely to seriously impact their organisation).

Do you think that this logic holds up in the face of available evidence?

 

[bguy]

I would however like to suggest that Alabama might be a much harder nut to crack, given that it lacks a Freedom Party Governor and the fact that the manslaughter of native son Hugo Black might well sour the floating voters on the Freedom Party.

Agreed. You may not have seen it, but I edited my post a few hours ago today to reflect that Alabama wouldn't vote Freedom for the exact reason you mention. (Though I think it is much more likely to vote Whig than Radical Liberal, since it is a Deep South state, and probably wants to "win one for Hugo.")

Given that Georgia is Grandfather James Longstreet's home state, it might well be pleased to regard itself as the birthplace of the Whig Party (which might explain the use of orange - that isn't citrus, it's a PEACH!) and therefore incline to vote for them after being persuaded that the Freedom Party is NOT an acceptable substitute.

Makes sense. Likewise if we go with the Filling the Gaps canon about Thomas Watson being a leading Radical Liberal then it's also possible that the Georgia Radical Liberals were sufficiently populist (and racist) that they largely squeezed out the Freedom Party in the state.

It's rather nice to see that his Home State still loves President Mitchel, even if almost nobody else in the entire Confederacy does!

Though oddly enough it didn't vote for Mitchel in 1927. Arkansas politics in TL-191 seem to be rather weird.

Given that Army is under the authority of C. Burton Mitchel III and General Stuart, I seriously doubt that it's going to be doing the Stalwarts any favours (except hand them back their hands once they've finished whipping on anyone that lets their enthusiasm for Featherston get out of hand). That being said I doubt they'll be doing the Rad-Libs any particular favours, merely seeking to ensure that the Election plays out as fairly and with as little criminal violence as possible.

True, but if the army keeps the Stalwarts in check in the western part of the state (where the Whig Party would have most of its strength), that could weaken the Freedom Party just enough for the Rad Libs to carry the state based on a strong showing in the eastern half (which is presumably Rad Lib territory.)

It is interesting to wonder just who the dealers on either side of that particular smoke-filled room would be; I suspect that the likes of Hull and Longstreet and Long might well be under a level of observation too close for the comfortable degree of anonymity required for some SERIOUS political double-dealing.

That might be President Mitchel's last big service to his country, convincing the Whigs in Congress to hold their noses and elect Hull.

On a more serious note I actually didn't realise that one needed a Supermajority, rather than a simple majority, to claim Victory in the Electoral College - I'll have to remember that point of procedure.

No, it only requires a majority. Featherston came up short though under my scenario. He had a plurality of the votes but not quite a majority.

My guess is that The Snake is smart enough to contest the outcome of the '33 Election in a court of Law and in the court of Public Opinion for at least part of 1934 and possibly for the remainder of that Year (doubtless seething all the while, but quite aware that if he strikes on Inauguration day in '34 both the Radical Liberals AND The Whigs will be ready and waiting to Jump him - they will not only be ready, but EAGER to stamp down on him until they grind his bones to make their bread).

The other potential benefit to Featherston for waiting is if the Freedom Party elected any new Governors in the 1933 elections. If they did, giving those Governors time to assume office and appoint Freedom Party members to command the state militia and state police would give the Redeemers a big advantage in any civil war.

OTOH the outrage amongst his followers over the "stolen" election will fade with time, so if Featherston wants to convince his people to fight for him, he needs to move pretty quickly. (I could especially see Knight and Mizell getting cold feet if Featherston waits too long.) Featherston also has an opportunity to strike while the US is distracted fighting Japan if he moves quickly. (He has no way of knowing how quickly that war will be resolved, so if he wants to take advantage of a distracted US he knows he needs to move quickly.) Thus I think he will probably launch his attack pretty early. (He might like the symbolism of launching his attack on the anniversary of the attack on Ft. Sumpter, though since that is in April that might be a little too early. Maybe on the anniversary of the start of the Great War?)

 

[Tiro]

Well if Featherston does make his move in '34 instead of '35 then I could imagine him making his move on the Anniversary of Camp Hill which is probably sometime in late September or early October (probably a little later than September 17th - the date of Antietam in our own Timeline - since the only Camp Hill associated with the Civil War of which I am aware is just outside Harrisburg Pennsylvania; given that if anything is likely to bring Little Mac running headlong into his own destruction it's threat to a US State Capitol this seems the most likely site for the battle).

The fact that - all going well - this might allow the Snake to complete his coup in time for Elections in November might make this a reasonably attractive option for Featherston (not least because it allows him to FIX those elections in his favour).

You are also right to point out that those within the Freedom Party/Redemption League/Tin Hats Axis more interested in Living Well than wrecking revenge on all those held to have wronged them might well break with Featherston rather than launch a coup de main against their own country, although in this respect I'd suspect Mizzel over Knight - I imagine that Old Man Amos would be too good a soldier to not immediately think "Civil War" on learning of The Plan (whereas Knight might be convinced that the possibility of a short, victorious War is very real being a natural born Optimist - he'd only be sickened by the reality of a drawn-out Civil War).


It is also interesting to speculate that the Election of President Coolidge might actually persuade Featherston to postpone his coup, since he is likely to believe that with the Election of a Democrat the United States is going to be far too busy pursuing Japan to destruction to intervene in a Confederate Civil War - it's also possible that he might look at Hoover's humanitarian record and rush his coup before this fellow can negotiate any Confederate belligerents into renewed amity.

(Though I think it is much more likely to vote Whig than Radical Liberal, since it is a Deep South state, and probably wants to "win one for Hugo.")

A very fair and cogent point.

Chihuahua is more questionable since the Freedom Party won the Governorship there in 1931 which means here also the state militia will be backing the Stalwarts. However, with the Freedom Party less popular in this timeline, it should have both considerably less resources than in the canon timeline (wealthy Confederates are going to be less willing to make donations to a party that murders its political opponents) while also having greater demand on its resources since it is facing a much tougher election in the more populous eastern states. Thus the Freedom Party will have to make some cuts somewhere, and its operations in the Spanish speaking states are the most likely to take that cut. And with favorite son Arango leading the charge against them in the state, it is plausible enough the Rad Libs could pull off the win here.

It is interesting to speculate that part of the reason the Rad-Libs lost Chihuahua in Timeline-191 was a failure to make Good Use of Doroteo Arango's Popularity with the locals (probably due to fears he'd push the Landlords over to the Whigs and a failure to understand that, Why YES even 'peons' can think for themselves as political actors when approached as Honest Yeomen and not as primitive menials); this would also feed nicely into my theory that a major reason for the failure of the Radical Liberals was their own reluctance to embrace Populism out of some misplaced fears bred of ingrained Confederate prejudices.

Though oddly enough it didn't vote for Mitchel in 1927. Arkansas politics in TL-191 seem to be rather weird.

As I recall the solution for this peculiarity offered in FILLING THE GAPS was that Mr Joseph Taylor Robinson (Mr Mitchel's Radical Liberal opponent in that Election), was also a Favourite Son of Arkansas and apparently one who enjoyed greater preferment in his own Home State (probably because Mitchel had always served with an eye on the Greater Confederacy rather than his own Home State).

It amuses me to imagine the two of them as longtime rivals to the point where losing Arkansas to Robinson quite nearly spoiled President Mitchel's joy in his epochal Victory (a landslide AND a 'Re-Election').

That might be President Mitchel's last big service to his country, convincing the Whigs in Congress to hold their noses and elect Hull.

Given that Mr Hull was something of an accomplished diplomat in our own timeline (longest-serving Secretary of State, 'Father of the United Nations'), one suspects that the greater challenge was persuading the Whigs to elect HUEY LONG!

Still, it's nice to think that President Mitchel continued to prove himself the most indomitable, inveterate and successful enemy of the Freedom Party in Confederate Politics right to the very end of his Administration (although I suspect it would take quite a bit of convincing on the part of Sam Longstreet to convince old man Mitchel himself that the Radical Liberals could not only cope with Featherston once in office but actually be trusted to Govern the CSA into the bargain).

(Note: Even if Featherston wins Tennessee, he still doesn't have an electoral college majority in this scenario. However, that would leave the Whigs far ahead of the Rad Libs in electoral votes, which would probably mean President Longstreet rather than President Hull. Thus we either have to have Hull win Tennessee or we have to have Georgia go Rad Lib instead of Whig to make the scenario work. Given how strong the Freedom Party appears to be in Tennessee in the novels, the second option may actually be more plausible, but I thought the first option was a little more interesting, so I went with it. If we go the other way, having Featherston win Tennessee while Hull wins Georgia means that the final electoral college results are: Freedom Party 109, Radical Liberals 67, Whigs 45. Featherston is real close to a majority but didn't quite make it, so the election still goes to the Confederate House.)

I have to admit that I would like to make sure that (whichever scenario we might pick) we do not allow the reader to lose sight of the fact that 1933 is NOT a Whig Year at the Polls - given the … misfortunes following The Crash; The Confederacy is definitely looking for an alternative to The Whigs and therefore the choice is between the Radical Liberals and the Freedom Party on the whole (with the latter rather handicapping their appeal to the Floating Voter with that unfortunate mess made out of Mr Hugo Black).

I like the idea of the Radical Liberals making unexpected gains (like Chihuahua and even Georgia) because it helps point out that while Whig support was crucial to their success in this Election the Radical Liberals have far more in them than any mere figurehead - pointing out that they have something very real to offer the Legitimist coalition, painting them as the promising rookie to the Whigs weatherbeaten veteran in this 'Confederate Politics as Buddy Cop Movie' scenario.

 

[bguy]

The fact that - all going well - this might allow the Snake to complete his coup in time for Elections in November might make this a reasonably attractive option for Featherston (not least because it allows him to FIX those elections in his favour).

Well the next Confederate elections aren't until November 1935, so if Featherston makes his move in '34, it will be well in advance of the elections.

You are also right to point out that those within the Freedom Party/Redemption League/Tin Hats Axis more interested in Living Well than wrecking revenge on all those held to have wronged them might well break with Featherston rather than launch a coup de main against their own country, although in this respect I'd suspect Mizzel over Knight - I imagine that Old Man Amos would be too good a soldier to not immediately think "Civil War" on learning of The Plan (whereas Knight might be convinced that the possibility of a short, victorious War is very real being a natural born Optimist - he'd only be sickened by the reality of a drawn-out Civil War).

Agreed. Mizell is likely to be a hard sell. The only real way I can see Featherston getting him on board is if Mizell genuinely believes that the Whigs and Rad Libs stole the election.

It is also interesting to speculate that the Election of President Coolidge might actually persuade Featherston to postpone his coup, since he is likely to believe that with the Election of a Democrat the United States is going to be far too busy pursuing Japan to destruction to intervene in a Confederate Civil War - it's also possible that he might look at Hoover's humanitarian record and rush his coup before this fellow can negotiate any Confederate belligerents into renewed amity.

Well Coolidge died very early in 1933, so he'll have been dead for the better part of a year by the time of the Confederate election. As for Hoover, Featherston should have a pretty good idea that Hoover wants a quick peace with Japan. (Hoover's Inaugural Address pretty much said as much.) Of course Featherston being Featherston, he might take from that that Hoover is a wimp who doesn't have a stomach for a fight, and thus conclude he doesn't have to worry about the US intervening.

As I recall the solution for this peculiarity offered in FILLING THE GAPS was that Mr Joseph Taylor Robinson (Mr Mitchel's Radical Liberal opponent in that Election), was also a Favourite Son of Arkansas and apparently one who enjoyed greater preferment in his own Home State (probably because Mitchel had always served with an eye on the Greater Confederacy rather than his own Home State).

Joseph Robinson as the Rad Lib candidate in '27 was an inspired choice by whoever thought that up.

It amuses me to imagine the two of them as longtime rivals to the point where losing Arkansas to Robinson quite nearly spoiled President Mitchel's joy in his epochal Victory (a landslide AND a 'Re-Election').

Shades of The West Wing and Jed Bartlett being more worried about losing New Hampshire than losing his reelection bid.

Given that Mr Hull was something of an accomplished diplomat in our own timeline (longest-serving Secretary of State, 'Father of the United Nations'), one suspects that the greater challenge was persuading the Whigs to elect HUEY LONG!

That does raise an interesting possibility. When no one has a majority in the electoral college, the Confederate House elects the President and the Confederate Senate elects the Vice President. Given the need for a Rad Lib-Whig coalition that could theoretically lead to a unity ticket, where the coalition elects Hull as President and the Whig vice presidential candidate as Vice President. Though I don't really think the Rad Libs would go for that. They've been waiting a long time for their shot at the Grey House, so they aren't going to want to chance losing it. And of course Long might very well become a third faction in any Confederate Civil War if he feels he's been cheated out of the vice presidency (or even worse he might align with Featherston), so Hull probably can't risk offending him. But on the other hand, Hull might see certain advantages in not being the only thing between Huey Long and the presidency, and Long might be willing to step aside "for the good of the country" if offered a sufficiently important Cabinet post. (Secretary of State would still set him up nicely for a 1939 presidential run.)

Still, it's nice to think that President Mitchel continued to prove himself the most indomitable, inveterate and successful enemy of the Freedom Party in Confederate Politics right to the very end of his Administration (although I suspect it would take quite a bit of convincing on the part of Sam Longstreet to convince old man Mitchel himself that the Radical Liberals could not only cope with Featherston once in office but actually be trusted to Govern the CSA into the bargain).

I would imagine it took Hull promising to appoint Sam Longstreet as his Secretary of War to get Mitchel on board.

I have to admit that I would like to make sure that (whichever scenario we might pick) we do not allow the reader to lose sight of the fact that 1933 is NOT a Whig Year at the Polls - given the … misfortunes following The Crash; The Confederacy is definitely looking for an alternative to The Whigs and therefore the choice is between the Radical Liberals and the Freedom Party on the whole (with the latter rather handicapping their appeal to the Floating Voter with that unfortunate mess made out of Mr Hugo Black).

I like the idea of the Radical Liberals making unexpected gains (like Chihuahua and even Georgia) because it helps point out that while Whig support was crucial to their success in this Election the Radical Liberals have far more in them than any mere figurehead - pointing out that they have something very real to offer the Legitimist coalition, painting them as the promising rookie to the Whigs weatherbeaten veteran in this 'Confederate Politics as Buddy Cop Movie' scenario.

Good point. So maybe that means we should go with the Rad Libs pulling off a surprise win in Georgia, while the Freedom Party carries Tennessee, and (under very suspicious circumstances) the Whigs narrowly carry Alabama. That would leave the final election night results:

Freedom Party: 109 EVs
North Carolina (21)
South Carolina (12)
Florida (11)
Tennessee (18)
Mississippi (14)
Texas (33)


Radical Liberals: 67 EVs
Cuba (24)
Georgia (20)
Louisiana (15)
Chihuahua (5)
Sonora (3)


Whigs: 45 EVs
Virginia (15)
Alabama (18)
Arkansas (12)


The Whigs still get creamed at the polls, but the Freedom Party falls just short of winning an electoral college majority, so the election has to go to the House where the Radical Liberals are clearly going to be the dominant member of any stop Featherston coalition, since they both won more states and more electoral votes than the Whigs did.

 

[Darth_Kiryan]

I think I may do a variant TL on this, based on a very original POD. A certain charming Richmond druggist survives his shooting-and gets a determination to go into politics...

Yeah, that was a terrible waste of a character that. And a rather moral one at that.

 

[Tiro]

I was very sorry to see Reggie killed, but I have to say that his demise was more of a blood sacrifice than a clear waste - if there is a clearer symbol of the death of moderation in Confederate Politics than the death of Mister Bartlett then I'm not sure that I can think of one; more to the point it is a chilling symbol of things to come (for if Reggie Bartlett, as close to an unquestionable Hero as the White Confederacy can boast and a true survivor can fall victim to the Freedom Party then NOBODY is safe).

Quite frankly Reggie's Death raises the stakes sky-high … and makes it pretty explicit that anyone backing Confederate Opposition to the Freedom Party is NOT likely to be making a winning bet (It should also be noted that Reggie's death - which found him in '25, I think - takes place very close to the nadir of the Freedom Party, during the Mitchel crackdown; it's Mr Turtledove's way of showing just how dangerous the Stalwarts remain even when they have been thrust to the margins).

 

[Tiro]

Well the next Confederate elections aren't until November 1935, so if Featherston makes his move in '34, it will be well in advance of the elections.

An excellent point; I might have been thinking that The Snake - or more probably his more PR conscious advisors - would have wanted to hold Elections at the right time of year (albeit in the wrong year) to help stress that this is the REAL President taking the office he has fairly won (rather than a thwarted Gangster deciding that Political Legitimacy is what he and his Iron Brigade of Stalwarts need it to be and DEMAND that it become).

The only real way I can see Featherston getting him on board is if Mizell genuinely believes that the Whigs and Rad Libs stole the election.

Old Man Amos' hold on the hearts and minds of his Tin Hats seems to have been in slow decline at this point in time, but I suspect that his following is still significant enough for his support to be canvassed for by both sides; he is likely to be wild card in any conflict because I quite frankly cannot decide if he would side with Legitimists, Partizans or simply do his best to preserve neutrality.

Of course Featherston being Featherston, he might take from that that Hoover is a wimp who doesn't have a stomach for a fight, and thus conclude he doesn't have to worry about the US intervening.

Another case of The Snake not being entirely wrong even when he's mistaken; President Hoover is unlikely to hurl the full resources of the United States in support of the Legitimists (as President Blackford MIGHT have - especially if Mrs Blackford had any idea of what sort of fellow Featherston was), but he might very well elect to remain neutral in favour of the Hull Administration (which might arguably be more of a benefit to the Legitimists in the long run, as it allows them to canvass support in the North without risking being tarred and feathered as 'scallywags').

Joseph Robinson as the Rad Lib candidate in '27 was an inspired choice by whoever thought that up.

AGREED!

In fact I believe that Turquoise Blue may be the original source of this idea (I certainly make ample use of her fine Electoral Maps, which have all the names for Presidential and VP candidates that have been deployed in my articles to date).

Shades of The West Wing and Jed Bartlett being more worried about losing New Hampshire than losing his reelection bid.

It does rather fit my mental image of President Mitchel as a pretty tough customer, but one with surprising soft spots that leave him unexpectedly vulnerable when they're touched upon - also as a man vulnerable to being blindsided by dint of acute focus.

Given the need for a Rad Lib-Whig coalition that could theoretically lead to a unity ticket, where the coalition elects Hull as President and the Whig vice presidential candidate as Vice President. Though I don't really think the Rad Libs would go for that.

I tend to agree - for one thing it was the death of the Whig VP candidate (whether by murder or manslaughter depends on who you believe) that set this train of events a-rolling, so I'm not sure just who the Whigs would put up for a coalition VP although the idea IS an interesting one.

Hmmm … I wonder if a Coalition Ticket might run in '39 (should the Legitimists win the Civil War); this might well be a valuable restraining influence on President Long - assuming he fails to fall victim to an Assassination attempt at any point between '34 and '39 (which might be a Big 'IF').

But on the other hand, Hull might see certain advantages in not being the only thing between Huey Long and the presidency, and Long might be willing to step aside "for the good of the country" if offered a sufficiently important Cabinet post. (Secretary of State would still set him up nicely for a 1939 presidential run.)

Mister Long might actually find serving in a Cabinet office far more amenable than biding his time as a Vice President for six whole years (effectively as a nonentity), although one has to wonder if Long becoming Vice President was the price he paid for being placed at the head of the Radical-Liberal ticket in '33 (so that he could prove his bone fides as a loyal Rad-Lib before they let him anywhere near the levers of political power).

I would imagine it took Hull promising to appoint Sam Longstreet as his Secretary of War to get Mitchel on board.

I can certainly buy into this idea - I get the idea that Mitchel and Longstreet tended to butt heads but were also prepared to trust one another implicitly when it came to the preservation of Confederate Constitutionality (in all it's fatally-flawed glory) no matter how often they disagreed when it came to the vexing issue of Reconstruction Vs Reform.

It is interesting to see Mr Longstreet as the thin end of the Rad-Lib/Whig wedge that will form a serious threat to Featherston's attempted conquest of the Confederacy (and which might yet prove an invaluable precedent in the protracted process of making the Confederate a full-fledged Two Party Democracy).

The Whigs still get creamed at the polls, but the Freedom Party falls just short of winning an electoral college majority, so the election has to go to the House where the Radical Liberals are clearly going to be the dominant member of any stop Featherston coalition, since they both won more states and more electoral votes than the Whigs did.

This seems to fit the Bill very well; the Radical Liberals appear a workable alternative to the Whigs, the Freedom Party come terrifyingly close to sweeping all before them (Hull couldn't even win his own Home State!) and the Gallant Old Party play a key role in forming a Consensus Decision with just the slightest hint of a stitch-up.



At this point I may have to go back over the Thread and work out just how to pull all this together into a coherent course of Events; at any rate it seems fairly realistic that the situation on the ground at the start of the CS Civil War does not necessarily perfectly reflect the outcome of the Election.

 

[Tocomocho]

The Radical Liberals seem like quite a mystery to me. For one thing, I don't know how they ever came to become an opposition party of note, between 1) having radical in their name, 2) only having a base in the Hispanic former other-country states. Maybe the Whigs were basically a one-party system (similar to the PRI in Mexico) up until the Freedom Party- then it became a one-party system under them.

When I first read Radical Liberal, it sounded immediately like a 19th century Spanish political party's name. Well, there was never a "Radical Liberal" Party in Spain IIRC, but there was a Radical Party, and a Liberal Party, and fusion and partition of parties was so common we ended with OTL things as ridiculously named as the Liberal-Conservative Party among others.

So I looked it up and yep, turns out there were local branches of the Spanish Radical and Liberal parties in 1870s Cuba IOTL. So here's my theory:

Whatever shit happened that ended with Cuba going to the CSA in 1870 had to be done through a deal with the Cuban political elites. This deal included being admitted as a full state since the beginning and leaving the local Cuban political reality more or less unchanged. Time went on, and the Cuban Conservative Party (right wing, pro-slavery) basically merged with or became de-facto representative of the Whigs in the island, so the Liberal (center-left, pro-abolition through agreement with slave owners) and Radical party (left, anti-slavery) fusioned to stand a chance of winning the state elections in Cuba. This proved successful and eventually the RL went on to have a role in the CS congress and set branches in the continent, finding appeal first among Hispanics, then among other Catholics in multicultural regions of Texas and Louisiana, and finally among anyone that didn't feel represented by the Anglo-Saxon, evangelical, plantation dominated culture of the Deep South. But, since this demographic dominates 10+ states, the RL still can't gain the CS presidency by the time of the Great War.

 

[Tiro]

Now this is an intriguing idea and something of a novelty - I don't think I've ever seen a theory that the Rad-Libs got their start as a Hispanic Party (as opposed to a 'Whig Opposition' party that went looking for votes in unlikely places to buttress their position in Congress) prior to this one.

One has to admit there IS a good deal of sense in this idea!

 

[bguy]

Now this is an intriguing idea and something of a novelty - I don't think I've ever seen a theory that the Rad-Libs got their start as a Hispanic Party (as opposed to a 'Whig Opposition' party that went looking for votes in unlikely places to buttress their position in Congress) prior to this one.

One has to admit there IS a good deal of sense in this idea!

It's an interesting idea, but if the Radical Libs started out as a Hispanic party, it is difficult to believe they would have ever been taken even slightly seriously in the Anglo parts of the Confederacy.

 

[Strategos' Risk]

Maybe political opportunists took over the mainland branches since there was virtually no opposition to the Whigs?

 

[Tiro]

One never knows; I certainly suspect that the early Radical Liberals had to swallow their pride and reach out to the Spanish Confederacy before they became anything more than an 'Also Ran' in Confederate Politics (or at least anything more than Personal Rivals of the Whigs, rather than a fully-fledged Opposition Party - finding a distinctive identity all their own that still appeals to a fundamentally narrow-minded CS Electorate seems to have been an ongoing problem for the Radical Liberals from first to last, even if one goes by the Timeline-191 Novels alone).

 

[Cire]

I don't if has been discussed independently from any other TL191 thread, but what if the radical Liberal ticket of Hull/Long had won the election of 1933? What would that do to the C.S.A? How would the Freedom party react, and what would they do?

I guess that it really depends on how much of a savvy politician the newly elected Radical Liberal president happens to be? I think that new president could turn public sentiment by telling the Confederate people that the Freedom Party can only bring them more death and destruction, without any real tangible benefits to the people of the CSA, and in the end, another war will only do their country more harm. - I imagine a scene in which a Radical Liberal CS President visits Philadelphia and makes all sorts of wild proposals in front of a joint session of the US Congress; calling for a demilitarized zone around Washington DC, and free-trade zone stretching from Seattle to Miami, and a break of all military alliances with European powers. If the new CS president could at least make his own citizens believe that he is capable of bringing them a higher standard of living, then he'll stay in the saddle, and no one can knock him out of his spot.