tl 191 wi: radical Liberals had won the 1933 presidential election

[Tiro]

Very possibly; I think the key problem is that almost nobody in the Confederacy wants to hear that they can't beat the Yankees - for one thing this makes the sacrifices they made during the Great War POINTLESS because there was NEVER any chance that they could win a conflict with the United States in the Modern Era (almost certainly true, but nevertheless a truth nobody wants to swallow - especially if they've lost Father, Son or Brothers to the conflict).


I think that if anyone wants to put down the Freedom Party and KEEP them down then they are going to have to leave the Stalwarts without a leg to stand on - I suspect that the easiest way to do that would be to give lip service to the CS/US hostility WHILE DOING YOUR D-----EST to defuse the Economic and Political factors that might drag the Confederacy into another World War.

I would also suggest that "Astonishing yet Well-Considered" proposals would be more useful than 'Wild' proposals, although I have to say that the North American Free-Trade zone sounds extremely useful (at least in abstract); I would like to repeat my suggestion that one would have to be very careful how one 'Sells' any co-operative ventures between the CS and the US (given that the Pride of the Confederacy is rather sore and bleeding after a rough twenty years or so).

 

[CCA]

Hmm, I'm really inspired by this thread - I think I'm going to start a timeline "The Center Holds: The Confederate Civil War and Beyond"

I'm thinking about three PODs that will lead to it:
1. Reggie Barlett survives his shooting because some of the Black POWs he served with in the camp happen to come upon the attempted shooting and interrupt it. Reggie is further radicalized by this incident and actively throws himself in Confederate politics ultimately becoming a mover and shaker of a new, populist Radical Liberal Party that tries to appeal to the common man. He's a Congressman by the time of the 1933 election and seen very much as a man with a bright future.

2. Reggie's survival and active participation in the development of the Radical Liberals means that they fight the 1933 election on much stronger ground with a better set of messages, promising active government for the common man.

3. Confederate stalwarts kill off Whig VP-candidate Hugo Black. Many swing-voters are appaled by the violence and turn their support to the Radical Liberals which are seen by many as the likeliest to prevent a Freedom Party victory.

The election outcome is very controversial. The Freedom party ekes out a plurality in the electoral college and the popular vote (40%) with the election being thrown to the house. Allegations of voter fraud are prevalent particularly in states like Georgia and Tennessee which barely go to the Radical Liberal ticket. Rounds of recounts are finally stopped by the Confederate Supreme Court in late 1933 that the results stand, throwing the result to the house.




(This result is adopted from below the thread)

Freedom Party: 91 EVs
North Carolina (21)
South Carolina (12)
Florida (11)
Mississippi (14)
Texas (33)


Radical Liberals: 86 EVs
Cuba (24)
Georgia (20)
Tennessee (18)
Louisiana (15)
Chihuahua (6)
Sonora (3)


Whigs: 45 EVs
Virginia (15)
Alabama (18)
Arkansas (12)



Painstaking months of protracted negotiation and horse-trading follow between the Radical Liberals and the Whig administration with a compromise agreement being hammered out. Hull is duly elected President with Longstreet being elected as Vice-President. Long is mollified with the promise of being announced as "Secretary of Reconstruction" - a massive public works department. The cabinet is filled with an equal proportion of Whigs and Radical Liberals.

The country is bitterly divided at this point. A clique of freedom-affiliated low-ranked army officers - frustrated by the lack of advancement due to the 'deadwood' in the CSA Army and sympathetic to the Freedom Party's message attempt a putsch which fails at the last minute. Hull puts out a call for the arrest of the Freedom leadership which is unheeded as Featherston and co flee to Texas which is the first state legislature which recognizes the Featherstone administration as legitimate. Over the course of early 1934, more and more state legislatures are pressured to declare sides.

The divisions in confederate society are reflected in it's armed forces.

The bulk of the small, professional army sides with the "Richmond Government," influenced by the Whig sympathies of many of the top brass." However, as much as 40% defects to side with what many see as the rightful victory of the election.

The navy is caught in an interesting position. The bulk of the remaining submarine forces defect to the Featherston administration, influenced by the presence of Roger Kimball in the Featherson cabinet. But much of the small surface fleet stays loyal.

Now, which states do we think will side with the Richmond Government, which states side with Featherson and which remain neutral initially?

 

[Cire]

Very possibly; I think the key problem is that almost nobody in the Confederacy wants to hear that they can't beat the Yankees -


Well, lets see if I support the Freedom Party odds are that we will get into a terrible no -win war with the US, but if I support the Radical Liberal Party, there is a good chance that a second and third shift will be added to the Birmingham auto plant, once they start selling cheap CS cars up in the US?

 

[Cire]

Hmm, I'm really inspired by this thread - I think I'm going to start a timeline "The Center Holds: The Confederate Civil War and Beyond"

I'm thinking about three PODs that will lead to it:
1. Reggie Barlett survives his shooting because some of the Black POWs he served with in the camp happen to come upon the attempted shooting and interrupt it. Reggie is further radicalized by this incident and actively throws himself in Confederate politics ultimately becoming a mover and shaker of a new, populist Radical Liberal Party that tries to appeal to the common man. He's a Congressman by the time of the 1933 election and seen very much as a man with a bright future.

2. Reggie's survival and active participation in the development of the Radical Liberals means that they fight the 1933 election on much stronger ground with a better set of messages, promising active government for the common man.

3. Confederate stalwarts kill off Whig VP-candidate Hugo Black. Many swing-voters are appaled by the violence and turn their support to the Radical Liberals which are seen by many as the likeliest to prevent a Freedom Party victory.

The election outcome is very controversial. The Freedom party ekes out a plurality in the electoral college and the popular vote (40%) with the election being thrown to the house. Allegations of voter fraud are prevalent particularly in states like Georgia and Tennessee which barely go to the Radical Liberal ticket. Rounds of recounts are finally stopped by the Confederate Supreme Court in late 1933 that the results stand, throwing the result to the house.




(This result is adopted from below the thread)

Freedom Party: 91 EVs
North Carolina (21)
South Carolina (12)
Florida (11)
Mississippi (14)
Texas (33)


Radical Liberals: 86 EVs
Cuba (24)
Georgia (20)
Tennessee (18)
Louisiana (15)
Chihuahua (6)
Sonora (3)


Whigs: 45 EVs
Virginia (15)
Alabama (18)
Arkansas (12)



Painstaking months of protracted negotiation and horse-trading follow between the Radical Liberals and the Whig administration with a compromise agreement being hammered out. Hull is duly elected President with Longstreet being elected as Vice-President. Long is mollified with the promise of being announced as "Secretary of Reconstruction" - a massive public works department. The cabinet is filled with an equal proportion of Whigs and Radical Liberals.

The country is bitterly divided at this point. A clique of freedom-affiliated low-ranked army officers - frustrated by the lack of advancement due to the 'deadwood' in the CSA Army and sympathetic to the Freedom Party's message attempt a putsch which fails at the last minute. Hull puts out a call for the arrest of the Freedom leadership which is unheeded as Featherston and co flee to Texas which is the first state legislature which recognizes the Featherstone administration as legitimate. Over the course of early 1934, more and more state legislatures are pressured to declare sides.

The divisions in confederate society are reflected in it's armed forces.

The bulk of the small, professional army sides with the "Richmond Government," influenced by the Whig sympathies of many of the top brass." However, as much as 40% defects to side with what many see as the rightful victory of the election.

The navy is caught in an interesting position. The bulk of the remaining submarine forces defect to the Featherston administration, influenced by the presence of Roger Kimball in the Featherson cabinet. But much of the small surface fleet stays loyal.

Now, which states do we think will side with the Richmond Government, which states side with Featherson and which remain neutral initially?

Just wondering if the British Empire would attempt to intervene, and if so, on which side? Could British involvement in such a conflict be characterized as interfering in the internal affairs of the CSA by one side or the other? Could such involvement eventually drive a wedge between the citizens of the CSA and the British Empire; especially if the British were to support Featherston, but Featherston were to lose the conflict? (Shades of the original American Revolution all over again?)

 

[bguy]

The navy is caught in an interesting position. The bulk of the remaining submarine forces defect to the Featherston administration, influenced by the presence of Roger Kimball in the Featherson cabinet. But much of the small surface fleet stays loyal.

I believe the Confederates were forbidden any submarines as part of the treaty that ended the FGW. Also, isn't Roger Kimball dead? (His death in the novels pre-dates your POD.)

Now, which states do we think will side with the Richmond Government, which states side with Featherson and which remain neutral initially?

Well per the novel canon, the Freedom Party won three governorships in the 1929 elections. The novels don't say which states, but it seems most likely they would have been Texas, Mississippi, and Tennessee. (The novels show Mississippi and Tennessee electing Governors in 1921 and Texas doing so in 1925, so assuming their Governors are on 4 year terms, they would all be holding Governor elections in 1929, and those three states seem to be the three strongest Freedom Party states.) Likewise in 1931, the novels seem to have the Freedom Party win the Governorships of South Carolina, Florida, and Chihuahua. Thus unless your POD changes the outcome of any of those elections, the Freedom Party would control the state militia and state police in all of those states. (That said a POD that leads to a stronger Radical Liberal Party might be enough to keep the Freedomites from winning the Governorship elections in Tennessee and Chihuahua at least.)

Thus I would probably say:

The state governments of Texas, Mississippi, Florida, and South Carolina all side with Featherston. (There is likely a large scale African-Confederate insurgency against the Freedomite forces in Mississippi and South Carolina.)

The state governments of North Carolina, Alabama, Tennessee, and Chihuahua all officially side with the legitimate government, but there is a powerful Freedomite insurgency in all of these states, so in reality neither faction truly controls these states. (Alabama may also have a large scale African-Confederate insurgency, depending on if the Reds decide to back the Hull Administration or not.)

The state governments of Virginia, Cuba, Georgia, Louisiana, Sonora, and Arkansas all side with the legitimate government. (Though again depending on what the Reds decide to do, there may well be a large scale outbreak of Red rebellion in Georgia and Louisiana.)

 

[Tiro]

Just wondering if the British Empire would attempt to intervene, and if so, on which side?

I suspect that the British Empire would be reluctant to intervene directly in a CS Civil War - especially if it is hard to tell which side will win - for the obvious reason that the Confederacy is a useful distraction (perhaps an essential asset) should another Great War break out with the United States on the wrong side.

More to the point I suspect that if the Royal Navy pokes it's nose into the Western Hemisphere then the United States of America will go BALLISTIC (especially so soon after the Pacific War); quite bluntly I don't think either the United States or the United Kingdom is going to risk making any overt moves where the Confederacy is concerned until after they've worked out where the other stands on the matter.

That being said I suspect that the United Kingdom would prefer the Legitimist faction (probably with an attitude of 'Favourable Neutrality'), possibly to the point of making some covert moves to assist them - probably through shipments of smuggled War Material, although I suspect that HM Government might look the other way while British citizens ignore the Foreign Enlistment Act for the chance to shoot down some Stalwarts at the very least.

All in all though, I'd guess that the British would do as we did during the American Civil War in our Timeline - do our best to keep our noses out of this particular business, all the better to avoid having them bloodied.


I cannot really see Great Britain intervening on behalf of Featherston or otherwise assisting him, but I'd bet that there are elements in Society that would do their best to sign up with the Stalwarts.

 

[Tiro]

Hmm, I'm really inspired by this thread - I think I'm going to start a timeline "The Center Holds: The Confederate Civil War and Beyond"

Please consider me extremely flattered that my suggestions (and the most excellent contributions of Mister B) have inspired you!

Painstaking months of protracted negotiation and horse-trading follow between the Radical Liberals and the Whig administration with a compromise agreement being hammered out. Hull is duly elected President with Longstreet being elected as Vice-President. Long is mollified with the promise of being announced as "Secretary of Reconstruction" - a massive public works department. The cabinet is filled with an equal proportion of Whigs and Radical Liberals.

Now this is an interesting permutation; I'd suspect that the Radical Liberals would be reluctant to accept a Whig VP but I can see it happening (especially if there has been a recent attempt at an Armed Putsch in Richmond to scare the Rad-Libs into bed with the Gallant Old Party).

I'd imagine that Longstreet would be kept extremely busy managing these two quite disparate parties in Congress (as best a VP can) while President Hull does his best to court and capture the attentions of as many allies as possible (both across the Confederate States and abroad).

I would bet cash money that the Kingfish would eventually come to resent being handed an office that has no power to actually DO anything until after the CS Civil War is fought out - I would definitely suggest either putting him in a position where he can wield some influence over the War Effort (Ministry of the Interior? Ambassador?) or prepare for him to start meddling and empire-building.

Hull puts out a call for the arrest of the Freedom leadership which is unheeded as Featherston and co flee to Texas which is the first state legislature which recognizes the Featherstone administration as legitimate. Over the course of early 1934, more and more state legislatures are pressured to declare sides.

I'll bet that the Legitimists would go to their knees and thank God if they heard that Featherston established his wartime capital in Texas: quite frankly I can imagine no more explosive situation than Featherston attempting to lead his Stalwarts while operating out of Knight's Home State - quite frankly Willie Knight is going to use all his energies and his 'Favourite Son' advantage in Texas to try to ensure that the tail will wag the Snake (so to speak).

In all honesty I can easily imagine that if the Featherston Administration is established in Texas then either Featherston or Knight will make an attempt to kill their opposite number even sooner than they did in the course of Timeline-191; I'm not saying that it is impossible that Featherston would set himself up in Texas, but I would say it is far less risky to the Stalwart War Effort were he to establish his administration in (for example) Montgomery Alabama.

Not only would this avoid a serious risk of quarrels for precedence between the Freedom Party and the Redemption League, but an early drive into Alabama would help secure the state (or the choicest parts thereof) for the FP/RL Axis and thereby allow the Stalwarts to start joining up their territories in the East into a cohesive strategic position.

The bulk of the small, professional army sides with the "Richmond Government," influenced by the Whig sympathies of many of the top brass." However, as much as 40% defects to side with what many see as the rightful victory of the election.

I'd argue that very few, if any, of the Regulars are likely to join Featherston (I'd guess that raw recruits and maybe a few NCOs are more likely than Officers to side with The Snake), but that the Partizans would have rather more luck recruiting amongst Veterans of the Great and the general population than the Legitimists - at least that portion of the population which is not Black.

The navy is caught in an interesting position. The bulk of the remaining submarine forces defect to the Featherston administration, influenced by the presence of Roger Kimball in the Featherson cabinet. But much of the small surface fleet stays loyal.

I tend to agree that it is unlikely that the Confederacy would retain submarines after the Great War (in fact I'd suggest that funding for the Navy would be gouged pretty badly to help maintain The Army); that being said I suspect that a pool of beached sailors might be a fairly useful recruiting ground for whichever side can convince them that they're in the right.

Assuming either side is reminded that there is a dimension to Warfare beyond Dry Land; if President Semmes is still around, I'd guess that the Legitimists are the most likely to do so (especially since Roger Kimball is still likely to have kept his appointment with Mrs Sylvia Enos and a bullet in 1923).

Now, which states do we think will side with the Richmond Government, which states side with Featherson and which remain neutral initially?

I agree with Mister B entirely, with regard to this question.

 

[CCA]

Please consider me extremely flattered that my suggestions (and the most excellent contributions of Mister B) have inspired you!


Now this is an interesting permutation; I'd suspect that the Radical Liberals would be reluctant to accept a Whig VP but I can see it happening (especially if there has been a recent attempt at an Armed Putsch in Richmond to scare the Rad-Libs into bed with the Gallant Old Party).

I'd imagine that Longstreet would be kept extremely busy managing these two quite disparate parties in Congress (as best a VP can) while President Hull does his best to court and capture the attentions of as many allies as possible (both across the Confederate States and abroad).

I would bet cash money that the Kingfish would eventually come to resent being handed an office that has no power to actually DO anything until after the CS Civil War is fought out - I would definitely suggest either putting him in a position where he can wield some influence over the War Effort (Ministry of the Interior? Ambassador?) or prepare for him to start meddling and empire-building.




I'll bet that the Legitimists would go to their knees and thank God if they heard that Featherston established his wartime capital in Texas: quite frankly I can imagine no more explosive situation than Featherston attempting to lead his Stalwarts while operating out of Knight's Home State - quite frankly Willie Knight is going to use all his energies and his 'Favourite Son' advantage in Texas to try to ensure that the tail will wag the Snake (so to speak).

In all honesty I can easily imagine that if the Featherston Administration is established in Texas then either Featherston or Knight will make an attempt to kill their opposite number even sooner than they did in the course of Timeline-191; I'm not saying that it is impossible that Featherston would set himself up in Texas, but I would say it is far less risky to the Stalwart War Effort were he to establish his administration in (for example) Montgomery Alabama.

Not only would this avoid a serious risk of quarrels for precedence between the Freedom Party and the Redemption League, but an early drive into Alabama would help secure the state (or the choicest parts thereof) for the FP/RL Axis and thereby allow the Stalwarts to start joining up their territories in the East into a cohesive strategic position.




I'd argue that very few, if any, of the Regulars are likely to join Featherston (I'd guess that raw recruits and maybe a few NCOs are more likely than Officers to side with The Snake), but that the Partizans would have rather more luck recruiting amongst Veterans of the Great and the general population than the Legitimists - at least that portion of the population which is not Black.




I tend to agree that it is unlikely that the Confederacy would retain submarines after the Great War (in fact I'd suggest that funding for the Navy would be gouged pretty badly to help maintain The Army); that being said I suspect that a pool of beached sailors might be a fairly useful recruiting ground for whichever side can convince them that they're in the right.

Assuming either side is reminded that there is a dimension to Warfare beyond Dry Land; if President Semmes is still around, I'd guess that the Legitimists are the most likely to do so (especially since Roger Kimball is still likely to have kept his appointment with Mrs Sylvia Enos and a bullet in 1923).




I agree with Mister B entirely, with regard to this question.

No worries! You, Mister B and the others in the thread have really breathed life into an old book.

Good points about the rest, I'll make modifications based on your feedback. I'm thinking about potentially wargaming the actual conflict potentially on the shared forum if people are interested before posting the main thread.

 

[Ceslas]

I'm tentatively interested. How would you go about go about wargaming the conflict?

 

[Tsar of New Zealand]

So here's a map of the Confederacy at the outbreak of the Civil War in, what, 1934? Colour speaks for itself Based solely on electoral results until we get a more in-depth view; I see Montgomery and Birmingham flipping Freedomite quickly unless put down, and the same goes for Knoxville and Chattanooga (mentioned as Freedom strongholds in The Grapple.

Richmond will probably play out like OTL's attempt by the Falange to gain control of Madrid, being quickly slammed down by loyalist troops and the vox populi, and the Navy should keep Hampton Roads firmly Legitimist. Charleston may - and probably shall - fall fairly early on (cf. Coruña in Spain as a major naval base), and the same goes for any Legitimist hotspots between Raleigh-Durham and Augusta.

Mobile could, IMO, end up besieged in a manner not dissimilar to the Basque country (how much parallelism are we shooting for here? ), though resupply by sea from Legitimist Cuba and the heavy Navy presence with the Officer Training School crammed with Whigs keeping it firmly Orange-Buff/whatever colour the Legitimists fly.

Georgia will be decisive in the Southeast Front, as holding Savannah and/or Atlanta will more or less cinch it for the Freedomites.

In the West, I see the Freedomite legislatures of Sonora and Chihuahua flipping the latter pretty early and probably gaining control of Hermosillo in the former - the presence of the Pacific Squadron and whatever vestigial Army is left guarding rocks in Guaymas should keep it Legitimist for a time, though.

 

[Tiro]

Your Imperial Majesty, I am most impressed by your cartographic contribution to this thread (I really do like that Map!) and very grateful that you have been kind enough to produce it; I am also extremely flattered that our rumination on this thread has proven interesting enough to inspire such a creation.

how much parallelism are we shooting for here?

Just enough to make our point, but not enough to make Victory for the Snake a certainty!

Whatever colour the Legitimists fly

I would suggest using Grey for the Legitimists (as a compromise between Whig Orange and Radical Liberal Indigo) given it's association with Confederate Policemen and the 'Good Old Days' of the Second Mexican War, as well as the War of Secession.

Sheer mischievousness suggests that we ought to use the colour-inverted Battle Flag as the Map Colour for the Freedom Party - which would mean that once again Blue faces off against Grey in the American South!

On a more serious note I would suggest that the Stalwarts might be depicted in either Butternut-Khaki (since they are likely to be dependent on Military Surplus than the Legitimists - at least they will be if my favoured Strategy of cutting them off from the Atlantic & Pacific Ports is both followed and a success) or with White for reasons that should be crashingly obvious!

Georgia will be decisive in the Southeast Front, as holding Savannah and/or Atlanta will more or less cinch it for the Freedomites.

If the Partizans seize Alabama and hold Tennessee, as well as South Carolina then I agree that Georgia is almost certainly where the War will be decided in the East - it's why the Atlantic Seaboard strategy is my preferred option (since it relieves pressure from the rear on Georgia, makes it much harder for the Stalwarts to put Georgia in a box AND secures the major Ports for the Legitimists, as well as creating a solid base of operations for a push to the Mississippi … assuming it works as I hope it shall).

The Tennessee option is also viable, as it links up the Legitimist strongholds along the Mississippi with the Atlantic and makes it harder for the Stalwarts to consolidate their territories - assuming they make Alabama their first priority, if the Legitimists can break into central Tennessee then they can threaten the Northern flank of that advance AND the heart of Stalwart power East of the Mississippi - but I worry that the difficult terrain as one heads into the Volunteer State from Virginia, a Partizan-friendly population and the serious possibility of the Snake striking back from Mississippi & Alabama make this a somewhat risky strategy vulnerable to overstretch.

In the West, I see the Freedomite legislatures of Sonora and Chihuahua flipping the latter pretty early and probably gaining control of Hermosillo in the former - the presence of the Pacific Squadron and whatever vestigial Army is left guarding rocks in Guaymas should keep it Legitimist for a time, though.

I suspect that the Wild Card in the Spanish Confederacy is Doroteo Arango - if he's half the Guerrilla Chieftain his doppelgänger from Our Timeline was (Pancho Villa!) then the Stalwarts in Chihuahua are going to have a serious insurgency to worry about.

In all honesty if I were with the Legitimists and were I able to secure recruits sufficient to form International Brigades then I would likely deploy a majority of them in Sonora (to keep the Pacific ports out of the Snake's coils, keep Chihuahua in contention and keep Texas too busy watching its back to throw it's fullest efforts into the Eastern Front).

 

[Tiro]

I'm thinking about potentially wargaming the actual conflict potentially on the shared forum if people are interested before posting the main thread.

I'm tentatively interested. How would you go about go about wargaming the conflict?

I too am interested, but would like to know more about how we shall go about Wargaming this conflict before I commit myself; I must warn you in advance that I am in Britain, so I will almost certainly not be able to contribute to any Real Time Event in any meaningful way and would therefore be obliged to confine myself to reading the After Action Reports.

If I might offer a suggestion, why not Roll Dice to determine which way the 'Undecided States' like Chihuahua or Tennessee will jump? (and perhaps also to determine if an insurgency will break out in any of the 'Unsettled' States - for example if the Legitimists seize a Partizan state or vice versa then one might roll to see if an outbreak of bushwhackers is on the cards).


I think that I shall wait until I hear more about the precise rules of this Wargame before I commit myself to any specific strategy - but be assured that I shall await further information with consider interest and anticipation!

 

[Tsar of New Zealand]

Your Imperial Majesty, I am most impressed by your cartographic contribution to this thread (I really do like that Map!) and very grateful that you have been kind enough to produce it; I am also extremely flattered that our rumination on this thread has proven interesting enough to inspire such a creation.

'S what I do. Houston's eastern border was a bit tricky, but I think it works.

Just enough to make our point, but not enough to make Victory for the Snake a certainty!

Wouldn't've dreamed of it - personally I'm a sucker for the Legitimists winning anyway, kind of a parallel to a Spanish Civil War-gone-right scenario. You seem to be going for plausibility and chance rather than narrative convenience, so I'll follow your lead rather than hijack someone else's train.

I would suggest using Grey for the Legitimists (as a compromise between Whig Orange and Radical Liberal Indigo) given it's association with Confederate Policemen and the 'Good Old Days' of the Second Mexican War, as well as the War of Secession.

On a more serious note I would suggest that the Stalwarts might be depicted in either Butternut-Khaki (since they are likely to be dependent on Military Surplus than the Legitimists - at least they will be if my favoured Strategy of cutting them off from the Atlantic & Pacific Ports is both followed and a success) or with White for reasons that should be crashingly obvious!

As you like it. I always found Confederate grey a bit dull, so I may try for orange or indigo, but you're probably right.

snipped for strategy

Both seem about right; were I Hull I'd direct the main thrust into a central campaign, which has the advantage of letting the Whigs know we're not leaving them to the Stalwarts.

I imagined the Legitimists, having the bulk of the regular Army, as being butternut while it'd be the Stalwarts (Scalawags is a name I quite like for them; slightly pejorative) using home-dyed grey uniforms, possibly hearkening back to the War of Secession.

I suspect that the Wild Card in the Spanish Confederacy is Doroteo Arango - if he's half the Guerrilla Chieftain OTL Pancho Villa was then the Stalwarts in Chihuahua are going to have a serious insurgency to worry about.

In all honesty if I were with the Legitimists and were I able to secure recruits sufficient to form International Brigades then I would likely deploy a majority of them in Sonora (to keep the Pacific ports out of the Snake's coils, keep Chihuahua in contention and keep Texas too busy watching its back to throw it's fullest efforts into the Eastern Front).

I forgot about old Pancho; he's quite the wildcard indeed. I think Guaymas is the focal point; depending how grateful old Maximiliano is, support of one form or another might be forthcoming from the south, too.

 

[bguy]

So what do we think the layout of the Legitimist and Redeemer military forces would be at the start of the Civil War.

Over in the Filling the Gaps thread, Craigo had the treaty that ended the First Great War cap the Confederate army (including the state militias) at 50,000 men. That seems plausible to me. It also seems likely that the Confederates would cheat, so I imagine their army is somewhat greater. (I'm going to go with 60,000 men as that is probably about as far as the Confederates could really exceed the treaty limitations without the US noticing/caring.) I'm also going to assume an even split on that 60,000 men with half of them being in the Confederate Army and the other half in the various state militias.

30,000 men in the Confederate Army is enough for 2 (under-strength) infantry divisions along British Army lines (i.e. with 3 brigades each), so that gives the Confederate Army 6 brigades total. How are they likely deployed:

1 brigade is almost certainly in Northern Virginia, shielding Richmond from both the US and from any Freedomite coup.

It also seems likely that at least one brigade would be stationed in Tennessee and in northern Texas, guarding the US border (while also giving the Mitchel Administration a quick reaction force if the Freedom Party gets frisky in either state.)

Our assumptions for the Whigs winning Alabama in the 1933 election largely depend on President Mitchel declaring martial law in the state after the assassination of Hugo Black. If that happened then there must be at least one Regular Army brigade deployed in Alabama as well. (It's doubtful Mitchel would want to rely on the Alabama State Militia to enforce martial law by itself, since that militia must be heavily infested with Stalwarts.)

That leaves two brigades unaccounted for. Any thoughts on where they might be stationed? (I kind of think Mitchel would have also deployed the other 2 brigades to Alabama, since he would want to show overwhelming force there after declaring martial law.)

And like Tiro, I think the Regular Army will almost uniformly back the Legitimist government. Given its small size, it should be a very professional force, and Chief of Staff Stuart has probably insured that all of its leading officers are reliable Whigs.


As for the State Militias, I did a proportionate breakdown for each state based off of the number of congressmen we are assuming each state has and came up with these numbers (assuming a total of 30,000 men in the state militias):

Virginia: 2,010 men
North Carolina: 2,938 men
South Carolina: 1,546 men
Georgia: 2,784 men
Florida: 1,392 men
Cuba: 3,402 men
Alabama: 2,474 men
Tennessee: 2,474 men
Mississippi: 1,856 men
Louisiana: 2,010 men
Arkansas: 1,546 men
Texas: 4,794 men
Chihuahua: 619 men
Sonora: 155 men

So to play with the numbers a bit, lets assume for the moment the Redemptionists get 75% of the militias of Florida, Mississippi, Texas, and South Carolina to fight for them (those being the 4 states where they control the state militias), 50% of the militias of Chihuahua, Tennessee, Alabama, and North Carolina (these being states where the Freedom Party may not control the government but where it is very strong), and 25% of the state militias from the other states (where the Freedom Party is not that strong). That would give the Redemptions a total of 14,420 men from the state militias. (With the Legitimists having the remaining, 15,580 men.)

If we also assume that Featherston gets about 10% of the Regular Army then that would mean the total starting forces would be:

Legitimists
27,000 Regular Army
15,580 State Militia
42,580 total

Redeemers
3,000 Regular Army
14,420 State Militia
17,420 total

Looks like pretty long odds for the Redeemers, but then Featherston also has his Stalwarts, so how many of them are there likely to be:

OTL: the Nazis supposedly had about 400,000 Brownshirts by 1932. The non-black Confederate population is probably about 30% of the population of Germany, so assuming Featherston has a proportionate number of Stalwarts to the Nazi Brownshirt numbers that would maybe give Featherston about 120,000 Stalwarts.

 

[Tiro]

I think it might all come down to who can mobilise fastest - given the CS Government is likely to have a majority of the standing army on their side they have an edge in this respect, but the Stalwarts represent a worryingly strong reserve by the modest standards of the Inter-War Confederacy.

Perhaps rather more depends on who can secure the War Materials needed to equip their troops to the highest possible standard (a force multiplier which may prove almighty); the problem in this respect is that the United States is going to be keeping a VERY close eye on arms shipments, so the two factions will either need EXTREMELY good smugglers (ideally facilitated by the control of some back door) or the permission of the United States (tacit or otherwise).


Having said that it is still extremely important to have a decent pool of manpower from which to recruit reinforcements & replacements - and the Freedom Party likely have an edge in that respect, unless the Legitimists are silver-tongued enough or unless they tap the Black Population for recruits (and if Red Rebellion DOES break out then the Hull Administration might be wise to consider offering them an ersatz pardon by taking them on-strength as Black Regiments - or rather by claiming that these brave coloureds were fighting for The Cause rather than their own cause).


I'd suggest deploying one of the two 'spare brigades' in Alabama and the other either in Virginia - the Capital is a valuable resource and the border is very close - or in one of the mainland Spanish Confederate states, so it can keep an eye on the Mexicans and the Yanks at the same time.

We should also remember that there are likely to be 'unofficial' forces, like the Confederate Citrus Company aeroplanes & those barrels which were deployed in the Mexican Civil War & the Black Staff.

 

[Ceslas]

I've been giving some thought to how one would wargame the Confederate Civil War and I've come up with a few ideas. I'll list them here so you can figure out if I'm crazy or not.

Map: The map pictured above is very detailed, perhaps too detailed for a game map but if we have multiple players on each side it might work through we'll need resource/political capital ratings for cities to determine how much each side gets each turn.

Players: The obvious wargaming idea would be to have a Freedomite player and a Legitimist player but given the nature of the forum it might be best to have two teams. At the head of each team would be the president who allocates resources, conducts foreign affairs, play event cards. He may not issue specific orders to his commanders as to troop movements or what they should spend their resources on or otherwise the other player might become a desk jockey.

Example:
Good: I want you to focus on taking Atlanta this turn.
Bad: I want you to train 5 State Militia units in Charleston.

The sub-player is under no obligation to obey his commander-in-chief in policy decisions and may move his forces to his liking, though he should be prepared to lose resources if his plans don't pan out.

Units: I envision four categories of units. From strongest to weakest they are Elites, Regulars, Militia, Conscripts.

Elites: These represent Regulars equipped with top-of-the-line modern equipment. They cannot be purchased normally and can only be acquired by spending equipment tokens (representing barrels and planes) on regular units.

Regulars: These represent trained units from a nation's standing army with years of training and experience. They cannot be purchased but they can be acquired with event cards or foreign policy successes. Each side starts with them in the proportions listed above.

State Militia: These represent the various state militias of the Confederacy and units of similar quality. They can be purchased with resources, spawned from event cards, and received via foreign policy successes. The main difference between them and Conscripts is that they are slightly better fighting but they need a couple turns to train before they can be moved.

Conscripts: Stalwarts and other good ol' boys with guns, these goons form the bloke of Featherston's forces in the early game but may be used by the Legitimists freely. They can be purchased with resources and spawned via event cards with the main difference between them and Militia being that they can move immediately after purchase with the cost of having dismal combat performance.

Currencies: There are three currencies the teams have to deal with: Resources, Political Capital, and Equipment. Resources are meant to be used by front commanders to conduct the actual war and are allocated to them by the president. Political capital is meant to be spent by the president on events, rolls on the foreign intervention table to get resources, equipment, or military units from backers outside the Confederacy, and rolls on the Red Rebellion to advance/sabotage Legitimist efforts to gain cooperation from the Black units spawning around the map during the game. Equipment is gained via cards and foreign policy rolls initially but each side has a card that lets the leader purchase them with resources from then on. Available Equipment is allocated to the fronts like resources.

Event Cards: Cards depicting various events and persons in the Confederate Civil War which can played for various bonuses. They can purchased with political capital and one may be played each turn.

Foreign Policy: A table that may be rolled on for a set amount of political capital which may give resources, equipment, and various qualities of units depending the success of the roll.

Red Rebellion: Like foreign policy its a table that may be rolled where a success will either advance or stall the efforts of the Legitimists to bring the Red Rebels on their side and eventually reform the Black Battalions. The Legitimists gain various benefits as they earn successes and it's impossible for Featherston to reverse this trend, just increase the number of successes needed to gain the next benefit.

Naturally, all these vague ideas that need details to actually make a game and can must be expanded on but I wanted to get these game bunnies out of my brain. What do you guys think: is it bad or is it the worst thing you ever read?

 

[Tiro]

I have to say that if this were a board-game I would personally be very happy to have my name attached to it!

If I might ask a question or two (1) Is there any way to acquire political capital or secure a foreign policy success without rolling on a Table?

(2) Do you think it would make sense to allow for a mechanic that upgrades the quality of troops as they win victories? (For example 'Conscripts' become 'State Militia' after, say, three victories).

(3) How would you simulate battles?

 

[Ceslas]

1. You would earn some per turn from the key sites (state capitals and so on) under your control. You don't roll on a table to get it. There would be some cards that would depict foreign policy successes (French and British international brigades, the Yankees easing arms restrictions on the Legitimists) but I wouldn't count those as the same thing.

2. It would make sense, it would just be a pain to control depending on the scale. (more players=more units= more experience=a migraine for a GM)

3. That I would prefer to leave to CCA to figure out. I'm not quite familiar enough with wargames to speculate.

 

[Tiro]

Wouldn't've dreamed of it - personally I'm a sucker for the Legitimists winning anyway, kind of a parallel to a Spanish Civil War-gone-right scenario.

I have to say that would be my preferred outcome too - it strikes me (and I have noticed this before) that this is the CSAs best chance at a 'Mandela' outcome (as opposed to a 'Hitler' outcome).

You seem to be going for plausibility and chance rather than narrative convenience, so I'll follow your lead rather than hijack someone else's train.

Well I like to allow for a degree of 'Multiple Choice' outcomes in my fiction as it adds a certain degree of verisimilitude (especially appropriate since this is an Alternate History forum).

As you like it. I always found Confederate grey a bit dull, so I may try for orange or indigo, but you're probably right.

Why not use Grey or Butternut as the main colour, with a more brightly-coloured highlight?

Both seem about right; were I Hull I'd direct the main thrust into a central campaign, which has the advantage of letting the Whigs know we're not leaving them to the Stalwarts.

True enough; in all honesty I think that the key objective for either side is to keep the enemy divided and consolidate your own forces (then enhance them to the greatest degree possible in quantity and quality).

Given that there are likely to be fewer foreign powers supporting Featherston (as an unproven quantity) I'd guess it's more important for the Stalwarts to recruit as many troopers as possible, while the Legitimists are likely to do better focussing on denying the Snake as wide a field of recruitments as possible while concentrating on building up a qualitative advantage - hopefully cutting off his access to foreign aid in the process.

In all honesty I'm tempted to suggest that the Legitimists should deploy their troops to cover the major ports - in Sonora, Texas, Louisiana, South Carolina and Virginia - although equally one might suggest that it would sensible to make a major deployment in Tennessee so that State can serve as a bridge between Northern Virginia and the Trans-Mississippi.

I imagined the Legitimists, having the bulk of the regular Army, as being butternut while it'd be the Stalwarts (Scalawags is a name I quite like for them; slightly pejorative) using home-dyed grey uniforms, possibly hearkening back to the War of Secession.

Now that is a very fair point; I have to admit my mental image of the Stalwarts as favouring Butternut is based on their already having pants of that colour and on The Snake's severe need to acquire the trappings of Legitimacy - whereas the Legitimists would need to lend their cause a certain element of Romance and 'Reactionary Appeal' hence the adoption of old-school cadet grey uniforms.

In all honesty it's not impossible that both sides might be so poorly-equipped (depending on the degree of luck enjoyed as they seek to secure War Materials) that the only way to tell them apart would be by the colour of the armbands they wear (which would likely be more colourful) and the colours on the standards they carry.

I think Guaymas is the focal point; depending how grateful old Maximiliano is, support of one form or another might be forthcoming from the south, too.

If I'm right then The Snake's best chance of securing Foreign Aid would be from sources South of the Border; I suspect that the Imperial Government would avoid crossing the frontier, but I'd be willing to bet that certain private individuals might well be willing to repay Confederate intervention in the Mexican Civil War quid pro quo.

 

[CCA]

Cheers for everyone's thoughts and feedback so far, I've thought more about it and created some possible rules and mechanics.

Initial phase:
The game begins on February 1 1934, a week and a bit after the inauguration of President Hull and the failed Freedom putsch. The starting phase of the game will be various states declaring their allegiances.

Roll a 12 to determine the allegiance of various provinces: results 1-5 and under result in that state breaking away to join the Redemptionists and results 8 -12 and over result in that state staying loyal to the government. If a state rolls 6-7 it represents continued instability in the state so re-roll at the start of the next turn. The degree of closeness to 6-7 determine the level of state control a government has over a state with the difference between the roll and neutrality being added to the default state control of 50%

To represent the strength of various factions within a particular state, apply a modified to each state you're rolling for based on this table

Redemptionist Core Territory:
North Carolina (-3)
South Carolina (-3)
Florida (-6)
Mississippi (-5)
Texas (-6)

Legitimist Territory:
Cuba (+6)
Louisiana (+6)
Virginia (+6)


Swing States:
Chihuahua (+1)
Sonora (+1)
Georgia (0)
Tennessee (0)
Alabama (-1)
Akransas (+2)

Example:
We roll a 3 for Arkansas and apply the modifier of +2 for an overall result of 5. This places it within 1 places of 6 which gives the Redemptionists only a +10% modifier for state control which brings it up to a total of 60%

Turns:
Each turn represents a week in game time.

National Unity:
This is one of the key statistics in the game and will be used as a multiplied for every aspect of the game from resource gathering to combat. It is an abstraction of national morale and how well the disparate forces are working together and how well the vox populi think the war is going. Things that affect unity include events which can decrease or increase National Unity. Victory or defeat in battles also affect National unity


State control:
Represents how firm the control of each government is over a particular state. Acts as a multiplier on the resources and manpower each side gains, however only the side that has 'official control' of a state can gather the resources of that state. When a side's control of a state slips below 40% as a result of either partisan activity or invasion, the state flips over to the other side.

Resources:

Each state will generate a certain number of resources that roughly represent material that can be used to fuel the war effort. The actual resource gathered per state is dependent on state control and national unity.

Manpower: Each state contributes a certain amount of manpower per turn. This amount is modified by the state control and national unity.

Example:

Sonora is controlled by the Legitimist Government. As a state with 3 electoral college votes it generates 3 resources per turn and 30 manpower. However, the Legitimist Government only has 60% control of the state due to the contested election and freedom party insurgents and has a national unity of only 50% which means that the state gives 0.9 resources (3 x 0.6 x 0.5) and 9 manpower per turn.


Currencies:
Resources and manpower are the two main currencies of the game. Resources are spent on the maintenance and purchase of war assets and manpower is used to replenish loses and purchase war assets. (I really like the idea of political capital, but as a first iteration, I think we need to trial out basic concepts first and not overload the GM with having to manage three different resources - political capital can be represented by National Unity and other events)

Units:
Units are represented by regiments at 1,000 men each. Each unit costs 25% of it's purchase price in maintenance per turn.

Comes in 3 three tiers (as adopted from Cesias' post below) With each tier of unit getting more dice rolls when it enters combat to represent the greater level of discipline and equipment that higher tier units have.

Regulars: These represent trained units from a nation's standing army with years of training and experience. Cannot be initially purchased but are acquired via events and as a result of decisions. Regulars always withdraw in good order after losing a battle. Costs: 30 resource points and 1,000 manpower for 1 regiment.
Dice rolls: 3

State Militia: These represent the various state militias of the Confederacy and units of similar quality. They can be purchased with resources, spawned from event cards, and received via foreign policy successes. State militias have a 33% chance of being destroyed after losing a battle.
Costs: 20 resource points and 1,000 manpower for 1 regiment.
Dice rolls: 2

Conscripts: Stalwarts and other good ol' boys with guns, these goons form the bloke of Featherston's forces in the early game but may be used by the Legitimists freely. Conscripts have a 50% chance of being destroyed after losing a battle. They can be purchased with resources and spawned via event cards.
Costs: 10 resource points and 1,000 manpower for 1 regiment.
Dice roll: 1

Planes and barrels: Planes and barrels can be attached to each regiment and add +1 to their dice roll per unit attached.
Costs: 40 resource points and 1,000 manpower per unit.

Combat:
Combat is done through dice rolls. Each regiment in combat rolls 1-3 six sided die to represent their combat strength. This result is multiplied by 1.x where x is the national unity modifier. The degree of difference between each side's result will generate the outcome of the battle. All defenders get an automatic +1 to their result before modifications to represent the advantage of defence.

For example:
Two legitimist regular regiments and 1 black conscript militia are defending Virginia and so roll a total of 7 dice (2 x 3 dice for each regular and 1 dice for the conscript) . The combined rolls for the turn them are 21 + 1 (the defence bonus) x 1.5 (50% being the National Unity) with the total combat strength being 33. The total combat strength of 33 x 10 (330) is the casualties that the legitimist defence inflicts.

On the attacker side, the Redepmtionists have committed 1 regular regiment, 2 militia regiments and 3 unit of conscripts for a total of 10 dice rolls as a combat strength. They roll a combined total of 24 x 1.75 (75% being the National Unity) of 42 combat strength with the attacking side inflicting 420 casualties on the defending force.

As 42 exceeds 33 by 11, the Redemptionists win a narrow victory in Virginia and force a withdrawal of the Legitimist forces, with the Legitimist Govenrment losing -11% state control of Virginia. The two regular regiments withdraw in good order, living to fight another day, however the conscript black militia rolls a 2 but needs a 4+ to retain cohesion and is therefore destroyed.)

So the force total for the Legitimist government in Virginia stands at 1,380 troops spread out over 2 regular regiments and 1 regular regiment, 2 militia regiments and 3 conscript regiments for the Redemptionists at 5,670 troops.


Cool. What do people think about the rules so far? I'm going to keep thinking of some more with the aim of starting the wargame tomorrow.