tl 191 wi: radical Liberals had won the 1933 presidential election

Tiro

Taking your excellent suggestion of 3.347 Millions as the maximum extent of the CS Pool of Manpower, 2.2 Million 'White Enough' Manpower and 1.1 Million for the Black Manpower available, I have taken the liberty of subjecting them to some calculations: assuming that the Legitimists have access to about 45% of the White Manpower that leaves them with an 'Upper End' limit of 99,0000 to 1210,000 for the Redemptionists.

Applying some of the calculations suggested by CCA for the Confederate Civil War-Game to represent the 'Fortunes of War' that might impact recruiting would give the Legitimists somewhere between 297,000 or 396,000 troops at their peak (990000 × 0.5 × 0.6 or 0.8) while the Redemptionists might recruit anywhere between 363,000 or 544,500 men (1210,000 × 0.5 × 0.6 or 0.9).

If the Hull Administration can tap the reserves of Black Manpower, then they might dispose somewhere between 330,000 or 385,000 (1100,000 × 0.5 × 0.6 or 0.7); if the Legitimists can recruit Black Battalions then their possible total jumps up to anywhere between 617,000 and 781,000.

It seems to hard to argue that recruiting Black Battalions could be the difference between Defeat for the Hull Administration and a Legitimist Triumph, at least in the Long Term.

These are of course very rough calculations and based mostly on speculation, but for the record in 1938 (at the height of the Spanish Civil War) the Republicans had about 450, 000 Infantry and the Nationalists 600, 000 so the figures produced by the calculations given above seem reasonably convincing.
 

Tiro

I've been thinking about the Sinews of War needed to keep the Legitimists and the Partizans pulling towards victory, so here are my thoughts on the most likely sources of munitions, weaponry and military equipment:-

-:GREAT BRITAIN is probably the most willing and best able to rearm the CSA of all the Entente powers (France is probably still being kept under the closest possible inspection by Germany and would likely provide experts rather than exports), but is likely to be somewhat divided by the vexed question 'Legitimist or Redemptionist' and handicapped by the fact that the United States is likely to be VERY twitchy about another Island Nation of the Entente smuggling or otherwise shipping guns into North America.

I suspect that any supply of British munitions is more likely to flow from private individuals than state-sanctioned endeavours and the precise volume of that flow will likely depend on the Government in power at the time the CS Civil War breaks out.


-:JAPAN is almost certainly far more eager than Great Britain to cock a snook at the United States, but is likely to enjoy a far higher risk of being blown out of the water if it's shipping so much as leans a little on the side as it steams by a US Navy vessel. It is also highly likely that the Japanese would most likely keep their goodies close to Home (to make good their losses in the Pacific War).

On the other hand they are likely to welcome the chance of making friends with a power that could provide a Serious distraction to the United States in the event of any sequel to the Pacific War (something both sides are almost certainly planning for).


-:MEXICO might actually prove more useful as an Arms Market than as an arsenal over the course of the CS Civil War (although as it has at least some access to tanks and quite possibly some military surplus after the Mexican Civil War, it is not impossible that it may prove more useful in the latter role than we might expect), although I'd guess that control of Texas would probably prove a significant advantage (mitigated if the Legitimists control enough of a Navy/Coast Guard to interdict shipping in the Gulf of Mexico).

I'd imagine that both The Snake and the Hull Administration would be VERY keen to ensure the Don Maximiliano showers favour upon THEIR faction rather than the Opposition; it's enough to make one feel sorry for any Emperor, much less one who sits upon so unstable a throne.


-:UNITED STATES OF AMERICA effectively represents the Jackpot in terms of accessibility, the availability of War Material and supply of same, but can only be called a poison chalice - if a Confederate Administration drink a little TOO deeply from this particular cup then their supporters are likely to scream 'Treason!' and then rush to commit themselves to a little Treason of their own.

On the other hand the USA is potentially so rich that even the Redemptionists might take advantage of like-minded individuals in Houston, Sequoyah and Kentucky to smuggle some portion of those riches into their arsenals (in fact the Legitimists might be wise to do the same, if only to try denying these sources to their Enemies).


-:GERMANY might actually represent a the best possible choice of Arms Merchant-in-Chief for the Legitimists; it is likely to be a major Arms Manufacturer, as the United States' Ally there is a somewhat smaller chance of it's shipping being blown out of the water (as it triggers neuroses made hyper-sensitive by the Canadian Uprising and the Pacific War) and best of all doing Good Business with Germany now might represent the thin end of a wedge that might drive the Twin Colossi of the Central Alliance apart at a later date if judiciously inserted.

On the other hand the Germans probably don't give two hoots about who wins the CS Civil War and are likely to sell to BOTH parties, as well as LISTEN when the United States asks them very nicely to STOP arming it's neighbouring rival.

On the other hand if the Americans ask RUDELY then there's a better chance of the Germans continuing on their merry way than if almost any other power were involved ...
 

CCA

Hey thanks for continuing the work on this Tiro. I've been overseas and haven't been able to contribute that much but will feed my thoughts in when I return home.
 

Tiro

I shall be extremely glad to hear from you CCA and shall be just as happy to read through any thoughts you have to share concerning our pet project!:D
 

Tiro

Having recently been somewhat astonished to realise that I had actually rolled out no less than SIX iterations of Stage Allegiances at the start of the CS Civil War (and had access to Seven, courtesy of Good Ceslas' efforts), one decided that the time had come to finally post my ... not exactly my 'Official' version, but the version which I shall hereinafter refer to as my own personal example of how things might play out in the course of a CS Civil War.

In other words it's my own personal version of things, but by all means feel free to roll out your own version of the Status Quo antebellum and think it just as accurate as mine!;)

For the record I actually went to the trouble of comparing results, working out which faction the various States tended to favour (interestingly even amongst the 'Swing States' there was a definite pattern - Alabama never once went Legitimist, Arkansas and Sonora only went over to The Snake once each, Tennessee took the side of her favourite son five times out of seven and only Georgia was a real wildcard; in the course of seven rolls the peach-tree state went Stalwart four times and Legitimist three times.

THEN I worked out the average for 'State Control numbers' results (after modifiers) and ... well, I applied them.
Click to expand...


STATE ALLEGIANCES AT THE START OF THE CS CIVIL WAR

LEGITIMIST STATES:-

-:ARKANSAS (10) 50%+30% = 80% Control (1237 troops).

-:CUBA (11) 50%+40% = 90% Control (-Stalwarts = 3062 troops).

-:LOUISIANA (11) 50%+40% = 90% Control (+TX Legitimists = 2768 troops).

-:SONORA (11) 50%+40% = 90% Control (+CH Legitimists = 326 troops).

-:TENNESSEE (9) 50%+20% = 70% Control (+MS+AL = 2413 Troops).

-:VIRGINIA (11) 50%+40% = 90% Control (+NC Legitimists = 2690 troops).


REDEMPTIONIST STATES:-

-:ALABAMA (3) 50%+30% = 80% Control (+TN Stalwarts = 2721 Troops).

-:CHIHUAHUA (4) 50%+20% = 70% Control (+SO Stalwarts = 448 Troops).

-:FLORIDA (2) 50%+40% = 90% Control (- Legitimists = 1253 Troops).

-:MISSISSIPPI (2) 50%+40% = 90% Control (-Legitimists = 1670 Troops).

-:NORTH CAROLINA (4) 50%+20% = 70% Control (+VA Stalwarts = 2258 Troops).

-:SOUTH CAROLINA (3) 50%+30% = 80% Control (-Legitimists = 1236 Troops).

-:TEXAS (3) 50%+30% = 80% Control (+AR+LA Stalwarts = 4335 Troops).


GEORGIA (5) 50%+10% = 60% Control (Troops = 1114 Legitimists/1670 Stalwarts).

I intend to treat Georgia as a State in contention, like Kentucky during the War Between the States in Our Own Timeline; as noted elsewhere and as the statistics themselves should bear out the race to secure Georgia is a close run thing with no consistent Favourite making themselves apparent.
Click to expand...
 

Tiro

I hope you'll post a link to the appropriate thread here when you two good fellows have something to show; I'll be very interested in seeing how our conception of the CS Civil War differs - although be warned, I may importune you for even the slightest trace of credit if your work together turns out to be as excellent as I believe that it will be!:D

Best of Luck with your Work!:)
 

Tiro

If anyone is browsing but not currently using their profile, I'd like to test the strategic logic of my deployments (based on the troop numbers mentioned in previous pages more or less) without any risk of 'cheating' based on my PERFECT knowledge of the opposition's deployments and intentions.

I don't intend to roll out a full War-game as yet, but I DO want to see how a Full-Blooded deployment plays out when two players are involved; more detailed particulars will be agreed upon with anyone interested in taking part.
 
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