The Warlords' Return: What if Mao never ended the Great Leap Forward

[Limabot]

I am currently trying to create an alternative history story involving Chinese history. My premise is: what if Mao never ended the Great Leap Forward. I want it to be as accurate as possible. However, I also don't have any more ideas for the story, so I would really love anyone's help.
Any constructive advice or ideas would be appreciated!

Link here: https://docs.google.com/document/d/1eyhBQcsoRGEpwW4wmPLjNTC-tPyeYH4q5_PfIsT2cec
Analyze as necessary, don't update google doc, post here

 

[Limabot]

Anyone know anything about Chinese history?

 

[West]

Best case senrio? Mao gets couped.

Worst case Senerio Cambodian killing feilds nation wide, for over a decade, china's population would actually noticibly drop.

 

[Limabot]

Thank you. I accounted for the 400 million population drop from all these factors, and I thank you for your input. The Chinese Genocide would takes place from 1958 to 1981.

 

[Napoleon IV]

Mao would get couped. Other leaders like Liu Shaoqi and Peng Duhai realized that the Great Leap Forward was a disaster, and Mao was forced to retreat from the policy in 1962. If he decides to continue these leaders would decide to go against him even further (only Peng openly denounced Mao), and ultimately the party wasn't on Mao's side.

 

[Limabot]

Okay, but I have one question. Are you able to get into the google doc?

 

[mlp]

There's no point in continuing GLF when it's obviously failing, Mao continued it for so long because local bureaucrats sent fake data. The top CCP legit believed they surpassed British steel production and etc.

 

[Limabot]

Exactly. This would have meant Mao simply never listened to criticism, and/or the bureaucrats continued to send false data.

There's no point in continuing GLF when it's obviously failing, Mao continued it for so long because local bureaucrats sent fake data. The top CCP legit believed they surpassed British steel production and etc.

 

[TauranCollective]

There's no point in continuing GLF when it's obviously failing, Mao continued it for so long because local bureaucrats sent fake data. The top CCP legit believed they surpassed British steel production and etc.

I think you're giving Mao a bit too much credit. If I could make a few points:

1) The GLF, especially in terms of execution, was a horrible, impractical, unrealistic idea in the first place
2) Previous dumb ideas that Mao had, like the national sparrow culling, helped contribute to crop failure in the GLF
3) As noted in this thread, Peng tried to wise Mao up as early as 1959, but the Great Helmsman would not listen
4)The CCP cadre, especially during this period, were filled with people with a very, very callous attitude toward civilian death. Very much in the vein of "it takes breaking a few eggs to make an omelet". By many accounts, Mao shared this mentality. He was not a compassionate humanitarian, to say the least.

He probably didn't mean or intend to kill tens of millions of people (in this instance), but managed to do so as a result of his own incompetence, ego, and callousness, as well as the pure despotism inherent in the system that he helped create.

Which, in a way, is far more disturbing than your average blood-crazed genocidal maniac. The banality of evil basically.

 

[Limabot]

I think you're giving Mao a bit too much credit. If I could make a few points:

1) The GLF, especially in terms of execution, was a horrible, impractical, unrealistic idea in the first place
2) Previous dumb ideas that Mao had, like the national sparrow culling, helped contribute to crop failure in the GLF
3) As noted in this thread, Peng tried to wise Mao up as early as 1959, but the Great Helmsman would not listen
4)The CCP cadre, especially during this period, were filled with people with a very, very callous attitude toward civilian death. Very much in the vein of "it takes breaking a few eggs to make an omelet". By many accounts, Mao shared this mentality. He was not a compassionate humanitarian, to say the least.

He probably didn't mean or intend to kill tens of millions of people (in this instance), but managed to do so as a result of his own incompetence, ego, and callousness, as well as the pure despotism inherent in the system that he helped create.

Which, in a way, is far more disturbing than your average blood-crazed genocidal maniac. The banality of evil basically.

I agree with you. This is basically what would have caused my timeline. On another note, are you able to get into the link? Tell me if you can

 

[RousseauX]

Thank you. I accounted for the 400 million population drop from all these factors, and I thank you for your input. The Chinese Genocide would takes place from 1958 to 1981.

That like 90% of 1950s Chinese population

If this occurs Mao gets removed, China is invaded or the communist government collapses well before 1981.

The closest analogy to this is pol pot, and he was deposed within a few years

 

[Limabot]

That like 90% of 1950s Chinese population

If this occurs Mao gets removed, China is invaded or the communist government collapses well before 1981.

The closest analogy to this is pol pot, and he was deposed within a few years

In my defense this would be over a period of 23 years, and Mao would be depose in 1968. He wouldn't have even cause all the deaths. A lot of them would be from the 2nd Chinese Civil War.

 

[Limabot]

It seems that no one can get to the link, so i'll post it here:

Scenario: China collapses in a civil war during the late 60’s and early 70’s; anti-maoists lynch most of the CPC; North Vietnam, Cambodia, Laos, and North Korea invaded and overthrown by Chinese anti-communists


Causes: Mao never ends the Great Leap Forwards, earlier Cultural Revolution, War with India



New Nationstates: Tibet, Manchuria, Xinjiang, South Mongolia, Republican People’s Union of China, Guang-Yunnan Union, Korea, Shanghai State, Republic of Macau and Hong Kong, Qing, West China


Changes Caused: Population of China region only 970 million in modern times, Buddhism has more members, most manufacturing in India instead, Cold War ends in early 80’s, Hong Kong and Macau unite as a single nation instead of joining China, Mongolia never democracises



Plot: Ji-li Jiang’s family flees into North Vietnam during the 2nd Chinese Civil War from anticommunist forces, and she is enlisted as a child soldier. After Hanoi falls, Ji-li is captured by a Shanghainese militia and is brought back to her home city as a prisoner.



Characters: Ji-li Jiang, 14 at the beginning, 30 at the end; General Hoàng Văn Thái, 52 at start, lynched at age 57; Tôn Đức Thắng, 81 at start, lynched at age 82



Ideas: does she have siblings? Yes. What do her parents do? Get captured and imprisoned by rebels, but save their children. Do they want her to be a soldier? No, is forced to by the Viet Mihn to compensate for lack of resources. Do they try to prevent it somehow? They can’t, they’re trapped in a prison camp. How does she feel about being a soldier? Left an empty shell by the end of the story, PTSD,only 14 when enlisted. Did they leave family behind? Her younger brother and sister escape the rioters but the rest of her relatives have either been imprisoned, kidnapped by the RPUC, or allied with the splinter states. Do they speak the same language as the Vietnamese? No, they are Chinese.



Are the answers to these all from before age 14? No, she flees the country at age 14. I think to make it interesting you have to make new outcomes for her & family members from age 14 on, so that it's a different story. I did. They were never captured by anti-socialists in real life, and Ji-li never went to Vietnam. Sort of “what would her life have been like if this had happened instead?”I believe I have done that already. The contrast to what actually happened is the intriguing part. This is a major alteration.

 

[thekingsguard]

Think Pol Pot and Cambodia, on a much larger scale.

 

[RousseauX]

New Nationstates: Tibet, Manchuria, Xinjiang, South Mongolia, Republican People’s Union of China, Guang-Yunnan Union, Korea, Shanghai State, Republic of Macau and Hong Kong, Qing, West China

The Qing isn't coming back by the 1960s or so, whatever support there was for a monarchy disappeared by the 1920s

I think your china is way too balkanized to be plausible, ethnic Han identity was pretty firmly entrenched by the mid 20th century, Manchuria for instance is like 95%+ ethnic Han and a strong unified ethnic identity bodes pretty poorly for balkanization.

The most likely scenario is for the ethnic han majority region of China to be reunified by someone: in this case the most likely scenario might be for the KMT to re-invade from Taiwan during or following a civil war, with US backing they would have a pretty big advantage over whoever is fighting in China proper

Macao and HK probably will stay indepdent until at least the 1990s as per OTL, though i don't think they would combine into one unit (portugal owns macao and the UK hong kong)

Xinjiang and tibet might keep independence if they get enough international recognizance though, though with a unified non-communist china their independence would be pretty fragile

 

[Limabot]

The Qing isn't coming back by the 1960s or so, whatever support there was for a monarchy disappeared by the 1920s

I think your china is way too balkanized to be plausible, ethnic Han identity was pretty firmly entrenched by the mid 20th century. Manchuria for instance is like 95%+ ethnic Han and a strong unified ethnic identity bodes pretty poorly for balkanization.

The most likely scenario is for the ethnic han majority region of China to be reunified by someone: in this case the most likely scenario might be for the KMT to re-invade from Taiwan during or following a civil war, with US backing they would have a pretty big advantage over whoever is fighting in China proper

Macao and HK probably will stay indepdent until at least the 1990s as per OTL, though i don't think they would combine into one unit (portugal owns macao and the UK hong kong)

Xinjiang and tibet might keep independence if they get enough international recognizance though, though with a unified non-communist china their independence would be pretty fragile

I understand your criticism and accept it. The way I figured this could happen is that the revolts were united early on, but went separate ways in the later phases of the civil war. These levels of balkanization due to certain leaders (like Pujie) building up militias and taking over large chunks of land,differences in political beliefs, and poor communication between rebels. Basically a more Permanent version of the Warlord Era. As to your criticisms of how the Republic of Macau and Hong Kong shouldn't exist, I agree it doesn't make complete sense. The UK and Portugal were allies, so...

 

[RousseauX]

I understand your criticism and accept it. The way I figured this could happen is that the revolts were united early on, but went separate ways in the later phases of the civil war. These levels of balkanization due to certain leaders (like Pujie) building up militias and taking over large chunks of land,differences in political beliefs, and poor communication between rebels. Basically a more Permanent version of the Warlord Era. As to your criticisms of how the Republic of Macau and Hong Kong shouldn't exist, I agree it doesn't make complete sense. The UK and Portugal were allies, so...

For starters, Puyi really, really wasn't someone to lead a revolt

Basically a more Permanent version of the Warlord Era.

Balkaniation tend not to occur in countries with a strong unified ethnic identity, the reason why is that ethnic identity tend to outweigh political differences, the reason why the era of the warlord ended was because one faction (the KMT) was able to leverage ethnic nationalism and a professional military to force the warlords to accept KMT authority.

basically what I'm saying is that it's fairly unlikely for china to be permanently balkanized

now, I get that you are writing AH fiction, and frankly it's ok to bend plausibility a bit if it makes for a better story

 

[Limabot]

For starters, Puyi really, really wasn't someone to lead a revolt

Balkaniation tend not to occur in countries with a strong unified ethnic identity, the reason why is that ethnic identity tend to outweigh political differences, the reason why the era of the warlord ended was because one faction (the KMT) was able to leverage ethnic nationalism and a professional military to force the warlords to accept KMT authority.

basically what I'm saying is that it's fairly unlikely for china to be permanently balkanized

now, I get that you are writing AH fiction, and frankly it's ok to bend plausibility a bit if it makes for a better story

I agree with you. I mainly used Pujie as leader due to him being the most legitimate and being a pretender to the Chinese throne.

 

[karatachi]

ROC re-conquest of mainland.

 

[ramones1986]

Well, how about Madame Sun Yat-sen (Song Qingling)?