The Spanish Heir (What if Carlos II had a son?)

However this war ends up going up, an immediate potential outcome of increased confidence in Spain may end up being that the coup against the pro French Marie Jeanne in Savoy happens a few months earlier- meaning Savoy is free to explore the Medici match with Anna Luisa.

Victor Amadeus may thus be set to inherit Tuscany as well as savoy- which isn't the same thing as Spain inheriting it to be sure, but it does alter the Italian dynamic quite a bit. Given Luis Carlos doesn't seem likely to have too many brothers, a savoyard prince (like otl victor Amadeus prince of Piedmont) might be the best match for Elizabeth Farnese, giving them Savoy, Tuscany and Parma.

Would savoyard dukes start to hope a pro French stance could then net them Spanish Milan, and effective resurrection of the Lombard kingdom of Italy?

Or does it make them a stronger anti french force? Capable of helping to keep the Spanish Netherlands tenable, keeping lorraine out of french hands, or even getting back the franche comte?

Also should the Austrian Habsburgs suffer their otl dearth of men, would a Spanish second son inheriting cause much of a stir? That would be a good excuse for the Spanish branch to "internally partition" their territory, with this son getting the Spanish Netherlands and then inheriting Austria- which I think is more likely than Spain simply going, gee the Netherlands are hard to keep let's just ditch them on our Austrian cousins.
 
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The truth is I'm waiting for them to win this war against France, restore some lands of the old duchy of Burgundy, and hand it over to an ally, we have to get rid of the Netherlands quickly
 
I hope Spain emerges victorious.
Regarding the Netherlands, whatever happens, Spain will get rid of the burden they represent (they are profitable but in the long run they are unsustainable as Spain does not have the resources to maintain a huge permanent army in the region and they have the French always threatening to invade). On the other hand, after this war Luis Carlos or his regent will have to solve the great problem of Spain's economy and its backwardness with respect to the rest of Europe.
 
1.4: War of Reunions
IV: War of Reunions
640px-Van_der_Meulen_Prise_de_Luxembourg.jpg

Siege of Luxembourg (1684)

As soon as Spain declared war on France, Louis XIV reached out to the Dutch. Despite his own animosity toward them, especially toward Willem van Oranje, Louis XIV wished to avoid a war with them. Even though the French army was superior to the Dutch army and had proved such in the Dutch War, Louis XIV wanted a quick and decisive war against Spain. A Dutch intervention would preclude that outcome, as Louis XIV had seen in the Dutch War. Fighting against the Dutch could wait until a later date when Louis XIV had laid the necessary groundwork to eviscerate the Republic and its vile Stadtholder. In these overtures, Louis XIV made it clear that he meant no harm to the Republic. Louis XIV was merely asserting his legitimate rights to pieces of the Spanish Netherlands and would not carry the war across the borders of the Republic. Louis XIV even went so far as to promise restraint against Spain if the Dutch Republic should stay out of the war and use its good offices to bring Spain to the peace tables. Louis XIV's diplomats also repeatedly reminded the Dutch that it had been Spain, not France that had declared war. This war had been declared after Spain had refused to accept a peaceful arbitration to France's dispute with Spain and this war had seen Spanish raids precede any possible French trespass of Spanish-held soil. Louis XIV argued that as far as anyone was concerned, Spain, not France was the aggressor.

Willem van Oranje did not fall for these legal technicalities that masked French duplicity. He understood the causes of the war as continual French aggression and illegal French annexations of Spanish territory that necessarily provoked Spanish retaliation. Even if in 1683, the Spanish soldiers had crossed the border first, the French army was clearly intent on invading the Spanish Netherlands. France had even announced such intentions when it demanded contributions from the Spanish Netherlands to supply a French occupation. And if in 1683, the Spanish raiders had struck first, the same was not true for 1681 or 1682. Willem van Oranje's silence could not be earned through false French diplomacy. Accordingly, Willem van Oranje argued strongly between the Staten-Generaal that the Dutch Republic needed to raise a large and powerful army to relieve the Spanish Netherlands and defeat the armies of Marechal d'Humieres and General Boufflers.

The other Dutch politicians also did not buy into this fair tale of a French victim, but their fear of French military supremacy was far greater than their concern for the safety of the Spanish Netherlands. The Staten-Generaal had only reluctantly agreed to an alliance with Spain in the first place. Now, with war actually thrust into their faces, they cowered at the thought of facing another French army. The Dutch Republic had barely escaped complete obliteration a decade before and with the Imperial army more than a thousand miles to the east, the Dutch would not hazard a war against France with Spain at their side. Even if the victimization of France was understood as a lie, it provided the Staten-General with a convenient excuse. In particular, many of the Staten-Generaal wished to use Spain's initiation of full hostilities as a means of extricating themselves from their treaty obligations to Spain. That argument, of course, was flimsy at best and downright treacherous at worst. Besides fear pushing the Staten-General toward peace, many were willing to believe in Louis XIV's promises of restraint. This belief occurred in spite of the fact that Louis XIV had once rejected a surrender from the Dutch Republic that would have granted him the Generality Lands and an absurd sum of money. But since the Dutch did not believe they could fight France, they had to find something to believe in. In this case, they decided to believe that they could rein in France diplomatically. Those who remained undecided were drawn into the peace party by pointing out how damaging war with France would be for the Republic's trade. Ultimately, the Dutch Republic agreed to refrain from fully joining the war against France. Although the Dutch Republic would send some men to the Spanish Netherlands to fulfill their obligations and ensure the good conduct of the war, the majority of the Dutch army would remain immobilized. In return, the Staten-Generaal asked that France give Spain the opportunity to avoid further bloodshed by offering Spain reasonable peace terms in the following weeks.

On this understanding, the Dutch Republic sent just 8,000 soldiers to support the army of Grana, far less than necessary to give grana a fighting chance against the French army. The French, in turn, did offer Spain five alternatives to continued war. France would forgo its claims to Alost, Ghent, and other pieces of the Spanish Netherlands should Spain either (1) give up the duchy of Luxembourg in its entirety to France, including its fortress; (2) cede the Flemish towns of Dixmude, Courtrai, Beaumont, Bouvines, and Chimay; (3) hand over the Catalonian towns of Puigcerda, la Seu d’Urgell, Camprodon, and Castellfollit; (4) transfer the Catalonian towns of Roses, Gerona, and Cap de Quiers; or (5) turn over the Navarrese city of Pamplona and the fortress of Fuenterrabia. Spain was given until the end of the year, December 31, to decide whether it would accept one of those terms [1]. Although each of these options only demanded a relatively small piece of the Spanish empire, these pieces were all critical elements to the defense of the Empire. If Spain should give up Luxembourg then it lost the anchor to the defenses for the eastern half of the Spanish Netherlands. If Spain gave up the Flemish towns then it lost a whole line of defense for Flanders. Either of the Catalonian sessions would have given the French a strong base beyond the Pyrenees to seize the rest of Catalonia. Finally, the Navarrese cession would have given up the main gateway into Spain from the west, Fuenterrabia. If Spain accepted any one of these options then Spain only opened itself up to future French aggression, which doubtless would come. Thus, none of these options could be considered realities for Spain to accept. Yet for the Dutch Republic, who failed or refused to understand the significance of these demands, they seemed to illustrate an honest attempt at restraint from Louis XIV.

As was often the case in this age, even though diplomacy was ongoing and peace was being offered, fighting in the field did not stop. On November 16, Marechal d'Humieres opened trenches against Courtrai with the intent of besieging it. However, by the end of the next day, the town had been taken and just four days later the citadel surrendered. The next town, Dixmude, fell instantly as its garrison of a dozen and a half men had no possibility of defending it. With the Flemish towns under attack, the Marquis de Grana and his Dutch reinforcements were forced to fall back deeper into Flanders. From the next line of defenses, Grana harassed the French army and even sent further raids into France. Even though Grana continued the fight in western Flanders, his retreat permitted Marechal Crequy and France's most esteemed military engineer, Sebastien Le Prestre de Vauban, to advance on Luxembourg and pummel it. However, nearly a week of continuous bombardment failed to bring Luxembourg's defenders to heel. They were proving to be made of stiffer material than the defenders of Courtrai and Dixude. Even when Luxembourg was definitively cut off from the army of Grana, the Spanish commanders, Ernesto de Croy Ligne, Prince of Chimay, and Alberto Octavio Tserclaes de Tilly, refused Marechal Crequy's demand for surrender.

With the French pushing against the Spaniards across the Spanish Netherlands and with the Dutch Republic having only sent a token force to support Grana, Spain's continued resistance might have seemed odd. However, at this point, Spain was still holding on to the though that Sweden and the Holy Roman Emperor would back up their earlier words of support with material support. However, Sweden kept its eyes averted from the war unfolding in the Low Countries due to tensions with Denmark-Norway over Schleswig-Holstein. Meanwhile, Emperor Leopold remained too caught up in the possibilities of more grand victories over the Ottomans to be willing to risk defeats against France. Additionally, with the Spanish inheritance no longer available to Emperor Leopold or his son, he had less incentive to defend the Spanish empire than when he had made those gestures of support a year earlier. Even if Emperor Leopold was no friend of France, his route for expansion no longer included Spain, just Hungary and the Balkans.

While Spain's friends remained on the sidelines, Louis XIV decided to put the war to an end before any of those friends changed their minds [2]. In February 1684, Louis XIV responded to the Spanish burnings of parts of three French villages by having General Charles de Montsaulnin, Comte de Montal, flatten thirty villages near Charleroi. This retaliation was meant to further remind the Spanish that any harm that Spain committed against France would be returned tenfold. Thus, not only should Spain cease its attacks on French territory, but Spain should come to its senses and surrender. Since Spain did not, Louis XIV dispatched Marechal Bernardin Gigault, Marquis de Bellefonds, to Spain proper in March. Marechal Bellefonds' army with the aid of a French naval squadron captured Roses in April. Also, in March and April, Louis XIV ordered Marechal d'Humieres to continue his advance toward Ghent and Alost while General Boufflers followed up Montal's scourge of the villages near Charleroi by besieging Charleroi. These actions put further pressure on Grana's Army of Flanders and ensured that he could do nothing when Marechal Crequy and Vauban surrounded Luxembourg to officially besiege the fortress.

The War of Reunions reached its climax in May. In Spain, Marechal Bellefonds marched against Girona. There, the Spanish put together a strong defense that forced Marechal Bellefonds to establish a full siege rather than the simple bombardment that he had tried to intimidate the town with. Still, Marechal Bellefonds was greatly superior to the garrison of Girona. Only when the full Army of Catalonia was mustered and reinforced was Marechal Bellfonds forced to break his siege of Girona. Even then, he was able to remain on the Spanish side of the border after he defeated the Spanish in a skirmish on the Ter River. To the north, Oudernarde, Charleroi, and Fleurus all fell to the French. Only Luxembourg held on against the French onslaught in the north. In fact, in the vicious artillery exchanges between the defenders of Luxembourg and the French army, a cannonball managed to take Marechal Crequy's army as he reviewed the trenches. The blood loss proved to be great and the marechal died that night. Besides the artillery exchanges, the relentless Spanish sorties meet with repeated success as Vauban was caught off guard by the tenacity of the Spaniards. Only with great bloodshed were the French able to advance closer and closer to the citadel of Luxembourg.

Besides attacking the Spanish empire in Catalonia, Flanders, and Luxembourg, Louis XIV decided to attack a supporting piece of the Spanish empire, the Republic of Genoa. Even though Genoa was not the relevant military state that it once was, Genoese banking was a critical element of funding the Spanish war machine. Thus, Louis XIV wished to conquer Genoa and essentially take out the legs of the Spanish economy. Additionally, Louis XIV still held on to the memory of Genoa harboring Dutch warships during the Dutch War. Those Dutch warships had been allowed to raid French shipping from the port of Genoa, which Louis XIV had considered a major transgression against France. In mid-May, the French fleet of Jean-Baptiste Colbert, Marquis de Seignelay, and Abraham Duquesne, Marquis du Bouchet, arrived off the coast of Genoa and ignored the Doge of Genoa's demands for it to leave Genoese waters. Instead, it began a massive bombardment of Genoa to provide cover for an army of 3,500 men to land and take the city. However, this small army proved to be insufficient to overcome the numerous city militiamen who resolutely defended their homes. The Genoese militia even routed the French landing force, but the heavy cannonfire from the French fleet prevented the Genoese from driving the French soldiers into the sea. Instead, the French soldiers were able to return to their boats and escape back to the safety of their fleet. In the end, even though the French landing failed, the French fleet dropped more than 16,000 cannonballs on the city and damaged more than a third of the city. This impressive destruction forced Genoa to offer to come to terms with France to avoid complete destruction.

The Siege of Luxembourg reached its end just a week after the submission of Genoa when a breach of Luxembourg's main walls forced the Prince of Chimay to surrender and avoid the complete massacre of his soldiers. The Prince of Chimay alone can be said to have achieved any success against the French during the whole of the war. While Marquis de Grana had conceded several Flemish towns to Humieres and Boufflers and while the Army of Catalonia had been punished for chasing Bellefonds, the Prince of Chimay had withstood a French siege for six weeks and incurred three times as many casualties against the French as he had endured. In total, the French had lost more than 9,000 men to their Siege of Luxembourg despite using more than 60,000 rounds against the fortress and spending more than 400,000 lives on the siege. The Prince of Chimay's alliance was rewarded by the French who permitted his army to avoid the ignominy of internment. Instead, Chimay was allowed to march to Brussels where he reinforced Grana's army. The French had an ulterior motive for letting the Spaniards go. Without having to bother with interning the Spanish, the French were able to invade the Electorate of Trier and occupy its capital and dismantle its fortifications. Meanwhile, even with Chimay in the Spanish Netherlands, the French remained superior in numbers and kept Grana on the defensive.

With Luxembourg having fallen, Genoa having submitted, and both Flanders and Catalonia having been breached, the Spanish situation was beyond desperate. Nevertheless, the Spanish wanted to fight on and begged the Dutch to change their stance on the war. If only the Dutch would commit more fully, then France could be pushed back. Instead, by the end of June, the Dutch had grown so tired of even their minor contribution to the war that they came to new terms with Louis XIV. Under these terms, the Staten-Generaal agreed to once more use their good offices to try to convince Spain to surrender, and failing that the Stats-Generaal would withdraw its army from the Spanish Netherlands and permit the French army to finish off Grana and Chimay's army. Willem van Oranje was decisively sidelined during this whole episode. For Spain, the Dutch promise to abandon the war with or without Spain finally forced Spain to accept peace.

A month later at Regensburg, the diplomats of France, Spain, and the Holy Roman Emperor met to negotiate a peace settlement. Just ten months after the War of Reunions had begun, the European situation seemed dramatically different. Although Spain's heir had given it hope and belief, Spain's heir had not given Spain actual strength. The continued resilience and restored confidence of Spain had resulted in a costly siege of Luxembourg for France and a failure to take Girona, but Spain remained vastly inferior to France and still lost Luxembourg, Roses, and a line of Flemish towns [3]. The Spanish resurgence that Spain had believed in so strongly that even France had become worried turned out to be nothing more than a chimera. Heir or not, Spain could not contest France on land or at sea. If anything, the Spanish heir and the removal of uncertainty over the Spanish succession had just meant that any reason for French restraint had vanished. Without the allure of inheriting Spain, Louis XIV no longer had to worry about pushing Spain toward naming Emperor Leopold and his descendants as the heirs to the Spanish empire. Now, that Spain had its heir, there was no risk of Spain being inherited by the Austrians to produce a new encirclement of France. Instead, France could freely abuse Spain just as it had when Carlos II first came to the throne.

At the same time, French concerns that the Ottomans were collapsing and that Austria would emerge as a great conqueror proved unfounded. in the weeks after the Battle of Vienna, the Germans and Poles chased the Ottomans to Esztergom and then conquered the bridgehead in just six days. Then in March 1684, the Austrians, Poles, and Venetians agreed to a Holy Alliance under the auspices of Pope Innocent XI. Under the terms of this alliance, the three powers agreed to wage war against the Ottomans until all three agreed to make peace. Even after peace was made, the alliance would stay intact to provide for mutual defense against a future Ottoman counterattack. But this Holy Alliance became fractious and uncoordinated instantly as the Venetians targeted Greece and Poles went home, which left the Germans to conquer Hungary all alone. Although they confidently marched on Buda, their army did not find the quick success it had at Esztergom. Instead, just like the Ottomans a year prior, the Germans became bogged down in a difficult siege with no certainty of victory. Thus, although the Austrians had avoided ruination at Vienna, Louis XIV’s worries about them becoming the conquerors of Hungary abated.

Having conquered several of the towns and fortifications that Vauban had once listed as critical to the defense of France, Louis XIV was very willing to make peace with Spain and the Emperor and was also willing to be gracious in the matter. Spain, having been earnestly defeated and also having been abandoned by the Dutch Republic, Sweden, and the Holy Roman Emperor, knew that the war was lost even if the Spanish desperately wanted to fight on. Pride alone could not carry on the war for Spain. Finally, Emperor Leopold realized how dangerous France’s western conquests were, but at the same time, the Hungarian war was already proving difficult. The ecstatic enthusiasm that Austria had held the year before for its holy war was quickly being sobered by the harsh realities of fighting in the Hungarian basin. Emperor Leopold no longer foresaw a quick victory in the east and needed to be sure of peace in the west as he devoted more and more resources to the Hungarian war. Under these conditions, each of France, Spain, and Austria were interested in peace. However, so long as Emperor Leopold held the possibility of pivoting to the west, France could not force Austria into an unreasonable peace. As a consequence, despite Louis XIV’s desire to have a permanent settlement that recognized his victories, only a general truce was agreed to. Still, this general truce was favorable to France and its goals.

Under the terms of the Truce of Regensburg, France was permitted to continue its occupation of all the territory it had gained up to March 1682, which included Alsace, the Saar, and various pieces of the Spanish Netherlands and Holy Roman Empire. In addition, Louis XIV could retain the Duchy of Luxembourg, in its entirety and without dismantling its fortifications, and the Flemish towns of Dixmude, Courtrai, and Beaumont were to remain French [4]. In return, France evacuated all other towns it had occupied such as Charleroi and Roses, and made no demands for an indemnity from Spain. All of this was to be secured by a twenty-year truce. In addition to this truce between France, Spain, and the Holy Roman Emperor, Genoa formally submitted to France in 1685. The Doge of Genoa, who by Genoese custom was not even permitted to leave Genoa, personally traveled to Versailles to make this submission. The occasion was so extraordinary for Genoa that when Louis XIV asked what the most remarkable part of Versailles was, the Doge answered "mi chi "(" I here "). Altogether, Louis XIV had achieved a complete and significant victory in the brief War of Reunions. However, in the back of Louis XIV’s mind, he could not help but feel as if his victory had not gone far enough. He had a lingering suspicion that this twenty-truce would not be enough to provide for the lasting security of France.

[1] France does not demand anything more than it did in OTL, because France's approach to this war remained very similar to OTL despite Luis Carlos's birth. France wants a quick and easy victory that further secures its borders rather than a prolonged war, even if a prolonged war brings greater glory and more conquests. As a result, France is still very willing to make a quick peace with Spain for any piece of Spain that will both augment French defenses and break Spanish defenses.
[2] France does not feel restrained by the necessity of remaining on decent terms with Spain to keep itself in line to inherit Spain. However, France also remained committed to its idea of a quick victory. As a result, France orchestrates a moderately stronger French war effort than OTL but does not attempt a full-out conquest of the Spanish Netherlands or Catalonia, yet.
[3] Only a year after the Point of Divergence, Spain remains weak and the birth of an heir has only increased Spanish morale. Spanish military strength remains a problem. This means that France still conquers what it conquered OTL as well as more towns such as Charleroi, due to their diminished restraint.
[4] France decides to keep more of the Spanish Netherlands than OTL as a consequence of France not expecting to inherit the Spanish Netherlands or any other piece of Spain. This means that Courtrai, Dixmude, and Beaumont are taken by France rather than returned to Spain.
 
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Excellent chapter, I had hoped that Spain would do a little better but this result was expected, now Spain has to rebuild and prepare for the second round in 20-30 years.
 
Not just for the Spanish, the loss of Luxembourg will definitely ruffle feathers in the HRE.

Otl 1689 was the first time the empire collectively declared imperial war against France, but already in 1544 France had temporarily been declared an enemy of the empire. Given they're being more aggressive the Reichstag might be more willing to commit itself to an anti french stance and repeat that. Probably not going to result in any institutional changes, but during this period France was as bad as the Turks in the Imperial imagination- perhaps it could lead to a legal feeling that as long as France was declared an "enemy of the empire" through it's possession of imperial territory a formal peace is impossible.

Louis XIV was the last time that a french monarch stood for election as holy Roman emperor- if France is stronger than otl in German territory and not occupied with the Spanish succession, he might try and put a candidate forward in the next interregnum- backed up by attempted military domination of course
 
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No one in Europe wanted the French to control HRE, and with France beginning to become a threat it would not be surprising if the Spanish were to move closer to the British and even more so if the Glorious Revolution was avoided.
 
There is a silver lining here for those who oppose the French Bourbons. If Luis Carlos becomes King; it will effectively mean that the "cordon sanitaire" around France won't be broken. Spain might be weak but it is far from alone and still retains residual military and economic capacity through its Empire. Further down the road it means France can't really exert its influence as much as it has before. It might help make the War of the Polish Succession more interesting and perhaps less one-sided. But it could also help prevent the War of the Austrian Succession from escalating into an everyone vs. Austria conflict. Alternatively; depending on whether Joseph I doesn't die; it means Austria isn't as weakened by a potential succession problem.
 
Why would they do it after all the fighting to keep it?
$$$$$$$.They are broke.Place is clearly indefensible. Great way to fuck the English,French and the Dutch.Ask them to bid for it in an auction.Either way,France’s attention would be concentrated for a long while to the north.
 
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Why not just sell it to the Dutch/English and let them deal with the mess? Place was no good to both the Austrians and the Spanish.
I am thinking first of the Austrians because I think they will be more attentive to what the French are doing if the problem is now theirs, besides in OTL no one cared that Austria had them until 1795 but selling them to the Dutch would be the best alternative to the above.
 
I am thinking first of the Austrians because I think they will be more attentive to what the French are doing if the problem is now theirs, besides in OTL no one cared that Austria had them until 1795 but selling them to the Dutch would be the best alternative to the above.
Whoever owned that place was essentially subsidising Dutch/English defence.Time to make them pay for their own defence.
 
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ahmedali

Banned
I think that the survival of Habsburg Spain may mean that the Franco-Moroccan alliance will survive and become stronger

This may mean that Moulay Ismail's plans to recover Ceuta may be more successful here, and the siege of Ceuta becomes shorter, and it may mean that the siege of Oran may be a Moroccan victory.

Because France may support Ismail against the Algerians, who are supported by the Spanish, and it may mean restoring the borders of the Almohad state

It is assumed that Abdullah bin Ismail successfully succeeded his father and avoided the enormous succession crisis that he had suffered
Morocco would be a valuable ally in any effort to distract the Spaniards as well as focus on expansion into West Africa

And if he lived to the age of his father and son (i.e. died in 1780), we might see by the beginning of the nineteenth century a much stronger Morocco and see a Moroccan Meiji
 
I don't think the Moroccans will become that big a problem even if the alliance with France lasts, mainly because I see Spain after the war between the Hapsburg alliance and France concentrating on the Mediterranean killing any Moroccan possibilities while strengthening the alliance with the Austrians and starting to get closer to the British.
 
It is assumed that Abdullah bin Ismail successfully succeeded his father and avoided the enormous succession crisis that he had suffered
I don't see how you'd assume that- Moulay ismails insatiable appetites and army of progeny, combined with the leaderless black guard means that a succession crisis is pretty inevitable. French aid could mean they do a little better when they are able to recover some stability, and conquest of much of Algeria while Moulay Ismaïl lives isn't impossible, but Morocco won't avoid it's otl bouts of civil war.

It is true that continued Franco Spanish rivalry means Morocco is a useful irritant the French can use but that would come at the cost of being seen as betraying Christendom and increased hostility from the HRE.
 
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