The Spanish Heir (What if Carlos II had a son?)

1.1: The Habsburg Miracles
I: The Habsburg Miracles
640px-Anonym_Entsatz_Wien_1683.jpg

The Battle of Vienna (1683)

On September 8, 1683, the nativity of the Blessed Virgin Mary arrived in Vienna. On this holy day, priests, citizens, and soldiers alike poured into the churches of Vienna or failing that, their steps, and prayed. For unlike any previous nativity, this one had been one that many expected to live to see. For two months, Vienna had been surrounded by more than 150,000 Turkish soldiers commanded by the Grand Vizier, Kara Mustafa, Pasha, himself. This mighty host had cut off Vienna entirely from the rest of the Christian world and bombarded it daily while the Ottoman trenches steadily advanced upon the city. The Austrian army and band of citizens that had been left behind by their frightened Emperor Leopold numbered less than 20,000. Their situation was desperate and even their stalwart garrison commander, Ernst Rudiger von Starhemberg, could sense that the city would not survive much longer, and once the Ottomans broke through its walls everyone knew that only a bloody execution awaited every one of them. In the grips of this terrible situation, Starhemberg and the defenders of Vienna could do nothing more than pray for deliverance from the Blessed Virgin Mary.

That same Wednesday night those prayers were answered when the daily signal rockets of Vienna were answered by five rockets from Kahlenberg Hill in the west. Those five brilliant flashes signaled that the relief that Vienna had long-awaited and desperately needed was presently on its way. However, on Thursday, the only banners that waved in the fields around Vienna were the banners of the Ottomans and the soldiers beneath those banners remained in place, not diverted to fight some other foe. Of greatest concern, the cannonades against Vienna slackened, which only ever happened when the Ottomans were preparing a direct attack on the city. That afternoon, with the western horizon still devoid of signs of Christendom, an explosion rocked the western defenses of Vienna when a mine cratered part of Lobl Bastion.

Soon after, hundreds of Ottoman soldiers charged up the slope toward Vienna's walls to wrench Lobl Bastion out of the defenders' hands. Starhemberg's expectation of this attack meant that the breach in Lobl's wall had been stuffed with Austrian soldiers. Even after close to sixty days of unending and horrific investment, the Austrians stood strong and drove back the Ottomans twice. The toll that the Austrians inflicted on their attacks was so severe that the Grand Vizier declined sending the third assault. Afterward, Starhemberg quickly organized the repairing and retrenchment of the outer defenses of Vienna. Additionally, Starhemberg backed up these fortifications with chains and barricades in the streets and homes behind the walls. Whether the signals of the day before were true precursors to a timely relief or not, Starhemberg had no intention of surrendering Austria's capital to the enemy. Death was a more palatable alternative.

Those signals had not been for naught. A relief army had been formed and was in fact on its way. For the previous two months, just a mere 20,000 Imperial soldiers had remained within touching distance of Vienna to provide the vague suggestion of relief. But over the last weeks of August, that 20,000 men had been dramatically increased to create a real army. First, came 11,000 Bavarians under the personal command of the twenty-one-year-old Elector Maximilian II Emanuel. Unlike any other contingent, even the Emperor's own soldiers, Max Emanuel and his Bavarians had not demanded some incredible subsidy upfront or alternative reward to come to the aid of Vienna. The money could wait until Austria was not in the grips of catastrophe. For now, all Max Emanuel and the Bavarians required was an opportunity to demonstrate their bravery and prove their honor by saving the beleaguered city of Vienna. Shortly after the Bavarians arrived came an army of 6,000 infantry and 2,000 cavalry from the Franconian and Swabian Circles. They had only come after weeks of careful negotiation between Emperor Leopold and the Circles, which ended with Emperor Leopold agreeing to pay them a large sum for their services. Next, came 7,000 foot and 2,000 horse of Saxony, who like the Bavarians were commanded by their ruler, Elector Johann Georg IV. While the Bavarians brought with them an impressive train of field artillery, the Saxons brought an essential set of light and mobile artillery pieces. Finally, some smaller units of Germans such as that of Julius Franz of Saxony-Lauenberg added to the army.

The last piece of this army was 24,000 Polish footmen and hussars led by King Jan III Sobieski. This eastern army outdid the contribution of any single Imperial prince, even exceeding the army of Emperor Leopold himself. And this number was not even all of it. Some days behind the Poles lagged thousands of the Lithuanian subjects of King Jan III. Bringing this considerable army away from the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth and then all the way to the Danube had left the Commonwealth itself practically defenseless. In fact, the only defense that King Jan III could offer was a stern warning and a threat of devastating retaliation against the Ottoman partisan Imre Thokoly if he attacked the Commonwealth in the King's absence. However, putting his home in danger was without a doubt necessary to give Christendom a chance to save Vienna. Without the Poles, the Imperial army counted only 50,000 men whereas, with them, the Christians numbered close to 75,000 soldiers. Although this final number was just half that of the Ottomans, it was far better than being only a third.

With a King and two Imperial Electors holding commands within this great Christian army, the threat of splintered focus and disorganized tactics was high. Although Emperor Leopold was technically superior to each of them as the Holy Roman Emperor, his previous flight from Vienna had proven that the battlefield was not where his talents lay. Fortunately, the man who Emperor Leopold gave command of his soldiers to, Duke Charles V of Lorraine, proved to be the perfect individual to navigate this multinational army's complicated hierarchy. As the exiled ruler of an occupied duchy Charles of Lorraine's only vocation for the past decade had been being an Imperial general. Through this experience managing the Austrian army's diverse officer corps, Charles of Lorraine learned how to bring an army together around a singular goal through personally connecting with each and every commander of importance. Whereas others were brash and offensive or deferential and meek, Charles of Lorraine was straightforward and easy-going, which was a welcomed ideal among soldiers and commanders alike. Quickly, Charles of Lorraine gained the confidence of the Christian army's generals and bound them to the goal of rescuing Vienna above all else.

Under Charles of Lorraine's guidance, Jan Sobieski, Max Emanuel, and Johann Georg all agreed to ignore Emperor Leopold's directive that the relief army should take a longer approach through the gentle grounds to the southwest of Vienna. Instead, in their eagerness to save Vienna, the relief army determined to reach the city as quickly as possible by taking the shortest path across the rocky outcrop of the Wienerwald. With all appropriate haste, the relief army soon cut its way through the forest to Vienna's northwest and then crossed the Danube dangerously close to the Ottoman outriders. By September 8, the army had made its way to Tulln, just 22 miles from Vienna, and was readying its final approach toward Vienna. That night they sent off the signal rockets to inform Vienna of their coming and inspire just a few more days of resistance from the city.

When the relief army finally entered the Wienerwald on September 9, it was confronted by an unruly wilderness that had grown out of hand since the Habsburg Emperors had denied the forest to anyone but themselves. As a consequence, the relief army lost its cohesion as it filtered through the forest and up its steep slopes. No man found comfort as he marched or rode through the crowded woods and its sprawling undergrowth, all the while thoughts of a terrible battle hung over him. To make matters worse, a German scouting party spotted Ottomans holding part of the ridgeline in the way of the army's approach. The Ottomans, however, lacked the foresight to either fortify or sufficiently man that ridgeline. This allowed the Christians to pounce on the Ottoman position between dawn on September 11 and wrest control of the ridgeline before the Ottomans could realize their mistake. Yet this victory was not complete as several Ottomans managed to escape from the skirmish and flee back to the main camp where they made the Grand Vizier aware of the relief army's imminent approach.

Ottoman scouts had already revealed the relief army to the Grand Vizier two days prior to this attack on the ridge. However, the survivors of the attack were able to confirm the whereabouts of the relief army and its size, which verified the Ottoman belief that the relief army intended to come straight at them from the west and that no attack should be expected from the south where the patrols had still not encountered any Christian soldiers. The narrow geography of the Wienerwald meant that the best avenue for an attack was straight at the center of the Ottoman position. This position could be defended by a series of mannered ridges, hills, and villages. Although the Grand Vizier decided against enhancing the natural defenses provided by the topography with either trenches or palisades, the series of obstacles still presented a formidable challenge. The Christians would have to funnel themselves into multiple zones of fire and if the Ottomans held their ground then it would be a slaughter.

Another set of obstacles and an even greater challenge for the Christian army would have to be overcome before they could even reach the Ottoman defenses. After the morning's victory, the Christians were able to occupy the ridge of Kalhenburg and look down toward Vienna. The maps had led them to believe that between that ridge and Vienna lay gentle slopes and clear ploughed fields. Instead, the rocky and uneven ground that had begrudged them in the Wienerwald continued on all the way to the edge of Vienna. The lines that separated the fields were not low wooden fences but haphazard stone walls and thick hedgerows that could not easily be traversed. These demarcations enclosed not open fields of crops but thick and twisted vines of unharvested grapes. Further complicating this approach was a set of deep ravines, small streams, and some scattered villages. Any of these alone was an impediment, but all of them together formed a veritable wall against an assault. As the Christians piloted this difficult terrain they would be easy targets for the Ottoman cannons and muskets. The cavalrymen high up on their horses would be particularly exposed as they slowly negotiated the convoluted ground. All in all, the Christians would have no hope of sending in straight lines of pikemen and musketeers or charging forth coherent blocks of horsemen. Instead, the Christians would have to advance slowly and carefully across the difficult ground and under heavy fire before throwing themselves against prepared defenses and ready defenders.

In the face of this adversity, the Christians did not cower. They had come all this way to save Vienna and they would do their damnedest to try, even with so much going against them. However, the Christians' willingness to push on was not the result of confidence or of faith. Many Christian soldiers spent that night sleepless and unable to stomach any food. Even Charles of Lorraine was nervous on the precipice of this battle. They all understood that the likelihood of their victory was low and believed that many of their souls would depart on the morrow. It would be a red day, all they could do was hope it would not be a black day too.

On Sunday, September 12, 1683, the great battle for Vienna began when hundreds of Ottoman skirmishers began climbing up the slope toward Kalhenburg and opened fire on the Christian army at around 5 am. With men dropping left and right, the Christians could not hold still and simply return fire. Instead, the Saxon infantrymen abandoned their positions and drove down the hill toward the Ottomans. The whole left flank of the Christian army joined the Saxons in this counterattack that swept away the eastern skirmishers. Although the first Ottoman attack was thrown back, the left flank of the Christian army had placed itself well ahead of the rest of the army in doing so, which left it vulnerable to an Ottoman counterattack. Charles of Lorraine took quick notice of the danger and ordered the left to slow its advance while the rest of the Christian army was ordered to catch up. Although the Saxons had dragged the rest of the army out of its strong positions along the ridge, the earlier success had inspired the men with confidence and even Charles of Lorraine could feel something. The order for a general attack was given.

As the Christians crowded around the Ottoman stronghold of Nussberg, they cried out "Ave Maria!" and the Ottomans threw back "Allah, Allah Akbar!" These screams and shouts were drowned out by the overwhelming sound of muskets firing, cannons blasting, and swords clattering. The fighting was vicious and uncertain. But at that particular spot, the Christians found themselves more numerous than the Ottomans and steadily overcame their Ottoman forest. Of great importance were the Saxon light cannons that had been successfully dragged down the slope to directly fire into the Ottoman formations. Within the Ottoman camp, the Grand Vizier was well-aware of the unfolding battle and committed his reserve to saving Nussberg and holding back the Christians. However, the Grand Vizier failed to organize a larger reinforcement from other parts of the army because he could not coordinate with the various pashas and Tatar chiefs. In contrast, even with the dreadful terrain and multinational nature of the army, Charles of Lorraine had maintained decent lines and formations.

Close to noon, Johann Georg's cavalry was unleashed on the Ottoman sipahis, which allowed the Saxon infantrymen to wrest Nussberg away from the Ottomans. Still, the Saxons had to fight the Ottomans for each and every house in that village. the continuance of this attack faltered as the Saxons once more overextended themselves in the chase. But once the Christians regrouped they renewed their attack and took the next Ottoman stronghold in front of them. At this point, Charles of Lorraine called for the army to hold to avoid another overextension. He needed to ensure that the army did not lose its cohesion and under the hot summer sun, Charles of Lorraine was worried about his soldiers suffering from exhaustion and thirst. This pause allowed the thousands of Polish cavalry to make their way down the slopes from the Wienerwald and toward the southern edge of the Ottoman position.

With the Christian army having successfully made it down the slopes and having already broken one Ottoman position, the Christians finally found themselves at the advantage. Even though the Ottoman army as a whole was larger than the Christian one, on those fields to the west of Vienna, the Christians were superior in number. And now that they had made it down the slope, those numbers could be fully deployed against the Ottomans. Both Charles of Lorraine and Jan Sobieski could feel this shift. To the northeast, Charles of Lorraine asked the German commanders if they wished to push on or whether they should delay the battle to the next day. To the south, Jan Sobieski asked his own commanders the same question. In both councils, the answer was the same: March on.

With this order shouted out, the Christians moved forward once again and pushed up to the remaining positions. In the north, the Imperial soldiers led by the Bavarians and Saxons assaulted the Ottoman formations and after an hour and a half, conquered them. All the enemies within them were slaughtered. To the south, the Poles sent a forlorn hope forth to test the Ottoman positions. Although this lonesome company was mauled by the far more numerous Ottomans, their charge still shook the Ottomans just enough for Jan Sobieski to order the entirety of his hussars and the rest of the cavalry to charge the Ottomans. When the Poles bore down on them, the Ottomans did not present themselves as the vicious conquerors of Constantinople. Instead, demoralized by the morning and afternoon's travails, the Ottomans were a disorderly mess that lacked the spirit and discipline necessary to hold against a cavalry charge. The Poles punched through the Ottomans and began to cut them to pieces. Quickly, the Ottomans lost the last of their courage and began to flee. Meanwhile, the Germans to the north continued to stomp over the Ottomans in front of them. Within the hour, the Ottoman army was broken and sent into flight.

The citizens of Vienna rejoiced when Charles of Lorraine's official messenger pronounced that "Vienna was relieved". Thousands exited their homes and cried out in jubilation in the streets while others exited the city to set their eyes on their glorious saviours. Everywhere music played and tears of joy and relief painted faces. Although the army remained on alert for the rest of the night in case the Ottomans came back, all knew that no such thing would happen. By some miracle of God, an army of fewer than 75,000 men had secured a true and complete victory over an army of more than 150,000. Vienna was saved and the Ottomans were shattered [1].

While this miracle on the Danube saved Emperor Leopold from suffering the same ignominy of losing Vienna as his ancestor Emperor Frederick III, it was not the only miracle to bless the House of Habsburg on that day. More than a thousand miles away in the heart of Spain at the Royal Alcazar of Madrid, another miracle was delivered to the Habsburgs. There, after twelve hours of screaming and crying, Queen Marie Louise of Spain gave birth to the long-awaited first child of King Carlos II of Spain [2]. Better yet, she gave birth to a son who could inherit the many crowns of Spain without any dispute. Thus, Marie Louise ended nearly two decades of uncertainty over who would next possess the crown of Spain. Just as the victory over the Ottomans was celebrated by all within Vienna, the birth of a son, a crown prince, was celebrated by all within Madrid. To them, there could be no greater miracle than that which saved them from a dozen European rulers laying claim to some piece of the Spanish empire once the sickly King Carlos II's heart finally gave out. Thus, both halves of the Habsburg dynasty were saved on the fateful day of September 12, 1683.

[1] This is a retelling of the historical relief of Vienna. There is no alteration to make note of.
[2] This is the Point of Divergence, Marie Louise produces an heir. There is at least one rumored pregnancy for Marie Louise during her marriage to Carlos II. Unlike the rumored pregnancies of her successor Maria Anna of Neuburg, this rumored pregnancy was taken seriously and not believed to be completely chimerical. One reason for that difference in reactions was that although Carlos II was never conventionally healthy, he was far more relatively healthy while married to Marie Louise. During this time, the only believed issue with conception was his premature ejaculation. Later, when married to Maria Anna, Carlos II was suffering from increasing health issues including atrophy. Here, the suggestion is that Carlos II and Marie Louise manage to get lucky and overcome his premature ejaculation to produce an heir. Alternatively, you are welcome to believe that Marie Louise found another partner. Or even that this is a legitimate miracle from God. Either way, she has produced a child whom Spain will accept as the heir.
 
Excellent start, it will be interesting to see the divergences with the Habsburgs following Spain's command especially with regard to the colonies.
 

ahmedali

Banned
Interesting timeline

I'd like to see how the rest of the century develops with the surviving Habsburgs of Spain
 
I'm very interested to see how the Habsburgs continue to manage their Mediterranean and American possessions.

It might be too much to hope for, but perhaps if the final decades of his reign are less frantic, he might be a little more relaxed and not outlaw the use of Nahuatl and Quechua within the administration of the American colonies.

Beyond that, continuing spanish rivalry with France will be interesting- I'd assume if Spain can get it's act together they'll be looking for a return of the franche comté. But as they're not as much of a land power as Austria, they might end up losing Belgium to France. Corsica and Tuscany are also up for grabs this century, which could confirm them as masters of all Italy.

In the Mediterranean, Spanish support might lead to a longer lasting Catholic Morea, whether under the Venetians or under the Spanish themselves- and given how much the spanish the like Catholicism, it might scare the orthodox within the ottoman empire into closer association with the ottoman state. Austrian-ottoman wars in the beginning of the 18th century will be altered should the Spanish coordinate with their cousins by sea- Crete, Cyprus and even Rhodes could be targets here.

The age of dynastic partitions is mainly over, but one more might just be on the cards- either Castile and the colonies Vs Aragon and the Mediterranean, or Spain and the colonies Vs Italy and the Mediterranean.
 
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Interesting introduction and POD. I love the depiction of the Battle of Vienna that allows to put some background and context for the beginning of this thread, but also creates symbolism with a "Holy Day" for the Habsburg House.

It will prevent the Spanish Sucession War (or at least, delaying it for many decades as I suspect a surviving heir and sucessor for Carlos II for this thread) and many of its aftermath (for example, the true thrive of Great Britain as it was during this war they acquired Gibraltar).

Carlos II's heir would however have to face the quandary his kingdom is confronted to as it was during Carlos II's reign that the decline of Spain truly began. He would however rely on the old age of Louis XIV when he will be of age to rule, which could be helpful as France remains a powerful rival and neighbour (and I spoke of it as a Frenchman).
 

ahmedali

Banned
Honestly, I am interested in how Carlos II's son will be raised and who he will marry

(I would like to see Elisabeth Farenzi as a possible wife for the expansion of the Habsburg domains.)

Also you could see Louis XV dying young here and the repercussions of it
 

ahmedali

Banned
with a viable heir, the last 2 decades of 17th century go much differently, so hopefully all that isn't glossed over with changes only kicking in after 1700.
This is correct

I would like the survival of the Spanish Habsburgs to be associated with the extinction of the Austrian Habsburgs

Or seeing how Carlos II's son felt that Fitzbach would take the Austrian inheritance and the imperial title

or the extinction of the greater branch of Bourbon (the death of Louis XV in 1712)
 
I don't see how the butterflies would affect that (but it'd be a GREAT TL idea)
You've got 2-3 decades of divergence, with 2 major Spanish/French wars having happened. Daily routines are going to change. At a bare minimum, the War of Spanish Succession is butterflied.

Le Grand Dauphin caught smallpox with a random carriage stop during an outing. Le Petit Dauphin family caught measles during travels related to death of Le Grand.

It's a longshot for the Bourbon die off to go as OTL.

This is a perfect example of the ripple effects of that butterfly flapping its wings.
 

ahmedali

Banned
You've got 2-3 decades of divergence, with 2 major Spanish/French wars having happened. Daily routines are going to change. At a bare minimum, the War of Spanish Succession is butterflied.

Le Grand Dauphin caught smallpox with a random carriage stop during an outing. Le Petit Dauphin family caught measles during travels related to death of Le Grand.

It's a longshot for the Bourbon die off to go as OTL.

This is a perfect example of the ripple effects of that butterfly flapping its wings.
And Louis XIV told his nephew, the Duke of Orléans, about Louis XV

(If he's gone, you're the master)

So Orleans becomes the largest branch of Bourbon

It is the war of the Austrian succession that I do not see changing
 
And Louis XIV told his nephew, the Duke of Orléans, about Louis XV

(If he's gone, you're the master)

So Orleans becomes the largest branch of Bourbon

It is the war of the Austrian succession that I do not see changing
For me, the Bourbon die off is a nonstarter. It simply isn't likely to happen.

On the flip side, there's even more time for divergence in Austria. The likelihood of births and deaths going as OTL are even lower.
 

ahmedali

Banned
Well, if le grand dauphin and le petit dauphin and his sons were to die here, then there would still be Philippe’s sons left (the otl Spanish branch)
For me, the Bourbon die off is a nonstarter. It simply isn't likely to happen.

On the flip side, there's even more time for divergence in Austria. The likelihood of births and deaths going as OTL are even lower.
His marriage to the Duchess of Savoy gave him an only son (Louis I) who died without children despite his ability to bear children (he loved his wife despite her barrenness)

His marriage to Isabel Farenzi may not happen

So it is still possible

Or instead of making Maria Theresa take the inheritance

The daughters of Emperor Joseph I do
 
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