The Jaguar's Roar - An Aztec Timeline

[Mooze17]

another group that will be on that river are the spanish who already have control of the base of the missisipe river (or the colony is on the side of the base of the basin). Maybe an alliance of portuguese and natives vs spanish. (With the caribbean being a spanish lake, i think it is likely the spanish will start exploring the missisipe river in the coming decades)

I wouldn't predict any kind of general alliance of Natives and Portuguese vs Spanish. I think there is too much distance between Portuguese Canada and Spain for that, and the Natives too divided, plus there isn't a huge reason for them to be more hostile to the Spanish then the Portuguese so far. However, like in OTL they may back competing groups of Natives which fight each other over control of trade routes, particularly for fur, with the added dimension of the Mississippi civilization surviving so it isn't just tribal confederations but also actual states participating in these proxy wars.

IOTL many regions of the Platine area (Uruguay, Argentine Mesopotamia, Paraguay) had an actual chance of becoming part of Brazil.
ITTL, with France having the largest European population, they could very well conquer those regions or even the entirety of the Prata basin

Keep in mind the Natives of those regions didn't exactly go down easy either though. The Mapuche resisted the Spanish fairly successfully for centuries, for all we know they might be able to retain independence TTL. I definitely do think French Brazil will expand in that general direction, but doesn't mean they'll actually be successful in that.

 

[Quinkana]

The Russians need to genocide their way through Siberia first. In our history they didn't finish with their Asian conquests and get to Alaska until the 1700s so there's time for some other power(s), even native ones, to get firm control over the region first. Speaking of which, that part of the Pacific coast was better-developed than most would expect thanks to the abundant marine resources allowing higher population density. It's not as solid a prospect for surviving indigenous polities as in the Mississippi but it's not absolutely impossible either.

I don't like Russia actually getting anywhere other than Siberia. A native kingdom or just Europeans setting up shop in California would be interesting.

 

[Prince Daemon Targaryen]

I don't like Russia actually getting anywhere other than Siberia. A native kingdom or just Europeans setting up shop in California would be interesting.

What if a non-isolationist Japan landed on the West Coast? Toyatomi Hydeoshi was very expansionist. If his state continued and didn't isolate, they could want to get in on the colonization game

 

[Meshakhad]

We could see some other scenarios: a Native state that encourages immigration and intermarriage as Hawaii did IOTL, or a Metis state somewhere with a mixture of Native and European ancestry and culture. Here's a crazy idea: a smaller European power colonizes the Eastern Seaboard, only to fall victim to an invasion/regime change back home, and their colony joins the Haudenosaunee.

 

[Quinkana]

What if a non-isolationist Japan landed on the West Coast? Toyatomi Hydeoshi was very expansionist. If his state continued and didn't isolate, they could want to get in on the colonization game

I always like tls with an active Japan but it'd be significantly harder to write for the author. So it depends on what the author wants.

 

[holycookie]

I already gave my theory here about the Dutch not being able to achieve independence since a more successful and rich(thanks to Brazil) France will be looking towards conquering the Burgundian Inheritance from the Habsburgs and given they won't be having access to the massive amounts of gold and silver, they can't simply throw money at their state and with mercenaries to defeat them especially they'll also be preoccupied with maintaining order in the HRE once Luther's ideas spread around and the shit storm that comes with that.

Yes, I think this is the likely result (France did not have an equal in the period, with Austria managing to hold back its expansion using Spain and its wealth, which do not exist in this timeline.) France will have its border on the Rhine River. I am under the impression that Austria will convert to Protestantism in the long run, leaving Italy and focusing on trying to make HRE work.

I think it could be interesting seeing Danish presence there instead of the usual British one, especially because the Pampas area(basically mesopotamia and Buenos Aires region) would've probably already been flooded by French settlers looking for land and to get rich by raising cattle and by using the Plata River to trade with the Incas directly..

would a Danish south africa be quite different, perhaps without the dutch to compete the scandinavian country try to make a colonial empire

 

[holycookie]

ITTL, with France having the largest European population, they could very well conquer those regions or even the entirety of the Prata basin

it is very likely that this will happen.

I wouldn't predict any kind of general alliance of Natives and Portuguese vs Spanish.

I think this probably happened a lot of European countries and their native allies vs European countries and their native allies

I think there is too much distance between Portuguese Canada and Spain for that,

this will take time, probably disputes between the two will occur in the 17th century

Keep in mind the Natives of those regions didn't exactly go down easy either though.

the Mapuche and the Incas engaged in wars a few times, with some historians saying there were battles in +-1530. They fought with everyone.

The Mapuche resisted the Spanish fairly successfully for centuries, for all we know they might be able to retain independence TTL.

they remain independent is a possibility, especially in the southernmost part of the cone. It is also likely the region will turn into a three-way war with Incas, Mapuche and French settlers fighting for the region.

I definitely do think French Brazil will expand in that general direction, but doesn't mean they'll actually be successful in that.

this map shows two territories, the green one would be what the Mapuche say belonged to their ancestors and the pink/yellow one is the current "territory".
the green part was lost in the long run due to its good land for agriculture and good climate (favorable to Europeans). The yellow part towards the western side of the Andes did not have a very attractive territory, it is quite arid. But the friendliest part is agriculture being on the other side of the Andes (a region that the Incas tried to conquer). This region in my opinion will be the core of a Mapuche nation (if they manage to make a nation, not being destroyed by the Incas or some European power) it has the Andes protecting it in addition to a harsh environment, with a very centralized area and long distance from the Incas and European settlers. What stopped the expansion of the portuguese/bandeirantes in otl were the jesuits, without jesuits i think only the mapuche can resist. But the same thing as the Jesuits could also happen with the Spanish and Portuguese joining and destroying them (in this case it would probably be a temporary alliance between the Incas and the French)

 

[sarapen]

What if a non-isolationist Japan landed on the West Coast? Toyatomi Hydeoshi was very expansionist. If his state continued and didn't isolate, they could want to get in on the colonization game

The idea of Japan or China colonizing the Americas has been bandied about on this forum before and the general consensus was that it was too far and the potential profit not enough when compared to richer places that were also much closer and easier to get to. In Japan's case, if for some reason they can't get into Korea, China, or Manchuria, then there's Taiwan, the Philippines, and Indonesia. A lot of local merchants already spoke Chinese so it would be easier for Japan to expand there too. Taiwan especially would be a likely spot for colonization since it's relatively underdeveloped and the obvious next step in expansion after taking over Okinawa. And historically the wokou did attack Manila so the Philippines isn't a completely crazy goal for Japan even in our world.

 

[holycookie]

We could see some other scenarios: a Native state that encourages immigration and intermarriage as Hawaii did IOTL,

this is a possibility, but it didn't work out very well for hawaii

or a Metis state somewhere with a mixture of Native and European ancestry and culture.

well, in otl there were several informal states controlled by mestizos that in the long run were absorbed

Here's a crazy idea: a smaller European power colonizes the Eastern Seaboard, only to fall victim to an invasion/regime change back home, and their colony joins the Haudenosaunee.

For the colony to join the Iroquois I find it unlikely, but a special and unique relationship is possible between a colony and the Iroquois is possible. At the moment the Portuguese colony has a very, very friendly relationship with the natives (at least the allies) considering that they only survived due to the help of the natives.

I don't like Russia actually getting anywhere other than Siberia. A native kingdom or just Europeans setting up shop in California would be interesting.

the idea of @The Congressman would be interesting, with the japanese colonizing from alaska to california, as you said it would depend on the author but it would bring more group to north america (which looks like it will have 4 or 5 nations in the future). Would add more flavor to North America, with the Japanese looking to expand in the south. But with the Spanish blocking this expansion, the Japanese colonize the north (East coast of Siberia), Sajalim and Kamchatka and head towards Alaska

 

[holycookie]

The idea of Japan or China colonizing the Americas has been bandied about on this forum before and the general consensus was that it was too far and the potential profit not enough when compared to richer places that were also much closer and easier to get to.

yes it would be the last option

In Japan's case, if for some reason they can't get into Korea, China, or Manchuria, then there's Taiwan, the Philippines, and Indonesia.

well, apparently the most direct route is korea, china and manchuria is not possible without a great technological advantage (of the three, korea would be the only possible one, but it would be difficult), the southern route (Taiwan, the Philippines, and Indonesia) are being held in the long run by the Spanish (and their allies the Filipinos. Not to mention that the Spanish navy is much, much better and more modern than the Japanese one.), this forces the Japanese to take the less practical route to the New World. (give me samurai fighting aztecs and conquistadores)

 

[Mooze17]

I always like tls with an active Japan but it'd be significantly harder to write for the author. So it depends on what the author wants.

Also the Pacific is much larger than the Atlantic. A colonizing Japan would first go for Taiwan or Siberia, both of which are right there, and if for some reason they don’t or can’t, would need to conquer all the little islands in between, like Hawaii, before it even reaches California. It’s far from impossible, but it’s very difficult, and with a POD this late I don’t find it plausible.

it is very likely that this will happen.

I think this probably happened a lot of European countries and their native allies vs European countries and their native allies

It did in OTL, it would just be on a larger scale TTL due to less settler colonialism + stronger native states.

this will take time, probably disputes between the two will occur in the 17th century

Yes, of course, but I meant there will be natives aligned with both or neither, it’s implausible to have natives broadly on one side.

the Mapuche and the Incas engaged in wars a few times, with some historians saying there were battles in +-1530. They fought with everyone.

Definitely. I think people tend to forget how imperialistic the Incas were because they were destroyed so horrifically by the Spanish, but they were pretty bad themselves, conducting massive ethnic cleansing and expansionism.

they remain independent is a possibility, especially in the southernmost part of the cone. It is also likely the region will turn into a three-way war with Incas, Mapuche and French settlers fighting for the region.

this map shows two territories, the green one would be what the Mapuche say belonged to their ancestors and the pink/yellow one is the current "territory".
the green part was lost in the long run due to its good land for agriculture and good climate (favorable to Europeans). The yellow part towards the western side of the Andes did not have a very attractive territory, it is quite arid. But the friendliest part is agriculture being on the other side of the Andes (a region that the Incas tried to conquer). This region in my opinion will be the core of a Mapuche nation (if they manage to make a nation, not being destroyed by the Incas or some European power) it has the Andes protecting it in addition to a harsh environment, with a very centralized area and long distance from the Incas and European settlers. What stopped the expansion of the portuguese/bandeirantes in otl were the jesuits, without jesuits i think only the mapuche can resist. But the same thing as the Jesuits could also happen with the Spanish and Portuguese joining and destroying them (in this case it would probably be a temporary alliance between the Incas and the French)

Makes a lot of sense.

 

[holycookie]

It did in OTL, it would just be on a larger scale TTL due to less settler colonialism + stronger native states.

maybe we're going to have something similar to the thirty years war for control of the mississippi river.

Definitely. I think people tend to forget how imperialistic the Incas were because they were destroyed so horrifically by the Spanish,

Well, more modern weapons and armor than the natives, together with the wave of epidemics (of new diseases on the continent, in which the inhabitants had no protection) helped a lot. Other things like horses helped too. The fight was kind of unfair for that, but war is never fair.

but they were pretty bad themselves, conducting massive ethnic cleansing and expansionism.

they do something similar to the chinese in destroying the local culture and making everyone in the long run become Inca, which allows a stable expansion. As a whole they have a lot of enemies on their borders (not just the europeans) so something like a serious internal dispute will cause a lot of problems. While in this timeline the conquest of gigantic empires in the new world has no precedent, the old world has several examples of smaller groups conquering gigantic empires. So theys have to be careful there's always a crazy/greedy person trying to be a great conqueror.

 

[Xel]

Thing is, I already mentioned the big profit the likes of the Portuguese were making with both sugar and slave trade, something the French have inherited when they got an already sugar focused Brazil and that Spain will implement in their Caribbean colonies as well, simply because sugar growing was massively profitable well into the early 19th century meaning that others like Brits and Danes would want to get into that venture too and look for places that could sustain it(like Texas,the Mississippi river region, Florida etc).

And remember, just because the native empires control the main gold places dosen't mean there will be more rumors about more gold hidden somewhere else, which will definitely fuel intent to colonize

I really do not think you are grasping just how insane the amount of gold they ripped out of the local nations hands was. The profit from some lumber and sugar cane are not remotely comparable to literal throne rooms worth of gold delivered dozens of times over, let alone the power and territory that came with toppling mighty empires through sheer luck. The situation is radically different, it cannot logically happen the same way as OTL.

Like, will there be an interest in the 'new world'? Sure, but its not going to be the streaming waves of wanna-be empire conquering, gold extractors that we saw in OTL because nothing that inspired that has happened here. Like, let's keep in mind that Africa also had massive reserves of gold but no European has yet gone down there to try and take the place over. The same is true with the 'New World' it doesn't look like an easy conquest the way it did in OTL.

plus there isn't a huge reason for them to be more hostile to the Spanish then the Portuguese so far.

Yeah the Portuguese weren't exactly known as this friendly chill group of people, they aren't gonna be inspiring anyone to pick up and sail North to fight some other randos.

 

[Miguel Demiurgos]

Is it possible that Spain will end up colonizing Australia?
Because in the long run it seems that they will have a greater presence in Southeast Asia, they may end up discovering the continent. Perhaps they can effectively colonize it at the end of the 18th century.
And in North America perhaps the Spanish and Portuguese dominate the continent or at least the east coast and the Mississippi.

 

[Xel]

Is it possible that Spain will end up colonizing Australia?
Because in the long run it seems that they will have a greater presence in Southeast Asia, they may end up discovering the continent. Perhaps they can effectively colonize it at the end of the 18th century.
And in North America perhaps the Spanish and Portuguese dominate the continent or at least the east coast and the Mississippi.

I think New Zealand is more likely, the colonization of Australia took an age and a half to really begin and really only became super expansive when gold was discovered, something which took several decades of people living there to notice.

I think they'd only go so far as the coast myself, not likely seen as profitable or easy enough to expand in deep, especially when their parent nations would mostly be interested in conflicts in Europe.

 

[holycookie]

I really do not think you are grasping just how insane the amount of gold they ripped out of the local nations hands was.

Aproximately 850 tons of gold and over a hundred times that amount in silver. (The Spanish)

The profit from some lumber and sugar cane are not remotely comparable to literal throne rooms worth of gold delivered dozens of times over, let alone the power and territory that came with toppling mighty empires through . The situation is radically different, it cannot logically happen the same way as OTL.

Well I agree to a certain extent, this is especially true for the Spaniards who made their fortune in the New World, but not for the French, British or Dutch in OTL. Dutch colonies produced sugar, cocoa and other valuable plants. The French did the same in addition to producing fur and the English were similar to the French (apart from the fact of massive immigration).

What the argument demonstrates is that the form of empire that created the Spanish empire will not exist, on that I agree it will be more plantations than anything else. This has a ripple effect with the gold of the Portuguese colony literally helped England to concentrate reserves that made the English banking system the main financial center of Europe, as well as making possible the financing of the English Industrial Revolution. But extractive colonies will still be a common thing they will just be different (a mix of extractive and settlement colonies).

The only place that will have a big (like really big) gold rush is going to be the french colony in south america (As a colony, Brazil officially delivered only 800 metric tons of gold, but estimates say it was more than 1000 tons. The colony had the world's longest gold rush period and the largest gold mines in South America. The colony also produced diamonds being the largest producer of diamonds for over 150 years. In relation to sugar production, until today it is the largest sugar producer in the world by far.) i don't know if north america had a big gold rush.

Like, will there be an interest in the 'new world'? Sure, but its not going to be the streaming waves of wanna-be empire conquering, gold extractors that we saw in OTL because nothing that inspired that has happened here.

Well sugar for a while was worth the same as gold (sugar was called white gold for a reason). The colonies will not make the economies the European empires (mostly, there are some cases). But they will be something worth investing in, be it plantations, mineral extraction or biological wealth. (they will supplement the economy of nations)

Like, let's keep in mind that Africa also had massive reserves of gold but no European has yet gone down there to try and take the place over.

in this case the problem is disease and not the will of the europeans, the moment it was possible to survive in that climate the europeans explored africa.

The same is true with the 'New World' it doesn't look like an easy conquest the way it did in OTL.

I would not say that, what is shown at the moment is that there are two "civilized" regions but the other colonization attempts had no problems; In the eyes of Europeans, there are currently two strong empires that could be good allies and trade partners, but in the Caribbean, the Spanish had no problem expanding (either in the region of Gran Colombia or in the south of the USA), in the region of Canada, the Portuguese managed to colonize without major difficulties on the part of the natives. I think these two civilizations are likely to be considered "noble" savages (perhaps the Europeans will try to convert them into good Christians, the success of that I don't know what it will be) with the rest being considered just savages.

Yeah the Portuguese weren't exactly known as this friendly chill group of people, they aren't gonna be inspiring anyone to pick up and sail North to fight some other randos.

no civilization that wants to create an empire will have clean hands, from the incas to the chinese empire creation is a dirty job.

 

[holycookie]

I think New Zealand is more likely,

NZ will likely be colonized by the Spanish and named after a saint or region (perhaps nova cordoba or nova asturias)

the colonization of Australia took an age and a half to really begin and really only became super expansive when gold was discovered, something which took several decades of people living there to notice.

australia was not very interesting to colonize at the time, maybe tasmania (i don't know what resources the island has).

 

[Miguel Demiurgos]

Well with Australia it would take time to colonise. They may stay off the coast of Australia for a while, until they strike gold, and then it gets more intense. In time they could take over the entire east coast of Australia, which is the most populous place in the country.

In America they would stay in the area of Gran Colombia and Guyana. While the north would expand, either slowly or quickly. Over time they would take over the entire southern US, perhaps in the 19th century the colony could continue to expand west.

 

[sarapen]

Someone previously pointed out in this thread that with New World plunder not lowering the value of gold, African states would not feel as much of an incentive to switch to trading slaves. So African states like Kongo would not experience the demographic collapse from neighbours capturing their citizens.

The other effect would be that New World plantations would still need workers but not have African slaves to buy. The plantations would have the problems of enslaving natives as OTL, which is that it's easier for natives to escape (they're familiar with the surrounding lands and know where to run) and also easier to organize mass resistance since they're taken from the same groups and speak the same languages, plus they die to disease much easier. So maybe the Portuguese and Spanish need to pay more for slaves to entice African states, meaning plantations can't expand as much as in our world. Or maybe they'll actually start enslaving Europeans - criminals, prisoners of war, debtors, etc. Perhaps they'd buy serfs from other parts of Europe? Expanding indentured servitude is also an option but I'm not sure if it's financially sustainable if they can't be worked to death like slaves.

 

[Xel]

Well with Australia it would take time to colonise. They may stay off the coast of Australia for a while, until they strike gold, and then it gets more intense. In time they could take over the entire east coast of Australia, which is the most populous place in the country.

In America they would stay in the area of Gran Colombia and Guyana. While the north would expand, either slowly or quickly. Over time they would take over the entire southern US, perhaps in the 19th century the colony could continue to expand west.

I still think its unlikely, it wasn't until 1606 that 'Australia' was even 'discovered' and it was both incredibly far away from anything the Europeans cared about, but also extremely deprived of obvious resources the colonizers would even want. Keep in mind that discovery date because it was over a century before anyone even tried to colonize it, in 1788, and that was solely because the British lost control of America and had nowhere to send their convicts.

Someone previously pointed out in this thread that with New World plunder not lowering the value of gold, African states would not feel as much of an incentive to switch to trading slaves. So African states like Kongo would not experience the demographic collapse from neighbours capturing their citizens.

The other effect would be that New World plantations would still need workers but not have African slaves to buy. The plantations would have the problems of enslaving natives as OTL, which is that it's easier for natives to escape (they're familiar with the surrounding lands and know where to run) and also easier to organize mass resistance since they're taken from the same groups and speak the same languages, plus they die to disease much easier. So maybe the Portuguese and Spanish need to pay more for slaves to entice African states, meaning plantations can't expand as much as in our world. Or maybe they'll actually start enslaving Europeans - criminals, prisoners of war, debtors, etc. Perhaps they'd buy serfs from other parts of Europe? Expanding indentured servitude is also an option but I'm not sure if it's financially sustainable if they can't be worked to death like slaves.

I think that was me, and yeah very much agreed, there not being a flood of 'New World' gold destabilizing markets and making the African sources worthless in comparison to the "easy money" to the West (let alone all the sudden excess land) would likely ensure that the African slave trade never gets a massive boost due to economic collapse and a major need for free labor in endless plantations.

Good insights here, expanding plantations after a point would be seen as challenging at best and they lack control over much of the land they had OTL, so plantations and other things that need labor would expand much more slowly and as you so rightly noted, the locals would make really bad slaves. As it is, I imagine there'd be a mix, people did still buy slaves from Africa after all, and Europe and the Middle East too, and yeah criminals and the like would likely be very popular sources for cheap labor. Overall, I think expansion into the 'New World' would be slower and much less reliant on slaves, which would also be harder to get.