EDIT: Regarding European settlers in South Africa, historically was there less malaria there than in other parts of the continent?
Yep. here is a map of malaria prevalence in africa.
dff5afc0-1c6d-4c1c-8eee-3c8116452ff0_1600x784.jpg


But those settlers went to the Americas to get in on the looting of the vast native empires. There are no such empires in the Philippines and no rich trove of mineral resources to extract like in Potosi.
Brazil until the gold was found had little immigration but even so it had a population of 300,000 (with 100,000 being immigrants) over 2 centuries.
There are also no empires as such in Indonesia, just small merchant kingdoms and city-states, but they're much better able to resist invaders than the American empires were
Yes, at the same time, Spain has an army of conquerors with nothing to do. It makes more sense to try to conquer these cities. If they failed the problem is solved (with their number decreasing greatly). If they win, the crown has control of an area that is in spices. Win-Win senario for the Spanish crown.
- note that one of the reasons Portuguese colonizers preferred Brazil to Portugal's Asian possessions was that Brazil was less dangerous for them.
Portugal would not prefer to colonize Brazil over Asia. Portugal lost its colonies in Asia (apart from Macau) to the Dutch and therefore was forced to invest in the colony (and even then it only really started to invest in 1695 (when several gold deposits were found. 40 years after losing much of the Asian market). The expansion of Brazil was not due to the Portuguese, but to a mixed class of explorers (of children between Europeans and natives) the bandeirantes, who behaved similarly to the Cossacks and expanded the colony by themselves. Fighting with natives, Spaniards, Jesuits and sometimes the Portuguese themselves. So Portugal didn't prefer Brazil, they lost Asia to the Dutch who conquered Indonesia (which the Portuguese wanted to do).

Expansion of Islam in Indonesia at OTL. The Spaniards are in a good position to expand and offer an alternative to tribes that do not want to convert to Islam but have done so otl for lack of options. OTL spain and portugal went to war with countries like ottomans and france. The fact that it's dangerous won't stop them from trying.
1679344501943.png
 
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Yep. here is a map of malaria prevalence in africa.
View attachment 819619


Brazil until the gold was found had little immigration but even so it had a population of 300,000 (with 100,000 being immigrants) over 2 centuries.

Yes, at the same time, Spain has an army of conquerors with nothing to do. It makes more sense to try to conquer these cities. If they failed the problem is solved (with their number decreasing greatly). If they win, the crown has control of an area that is in spices. Win-Win senario for the Spanish crown.

Portugal would not prefer to colonize Brazil over Asia. Portugal lost its colonies in Asia (apart from Macau) to the Dutch and therefore was forced to invest in the colony (and even then it only really started to invest in 1695 (when several gold deposits were found. 40 years after losing much of the Asian market). The expansion of Brazil was not due to the Portuguese, but to a mixed class of explorers (of children between Europeans and natives) the bandeirantes, who behaved similarly to the Cossacks and expanded the colony by themselves. Fighting with natives, Spaniards, Jesuits and sometimes the Portuguese themselves. So Portugal didn't prefer Brazil, they lost Asia to the Dutch who conquered Indonesia (which the Portuguese wanted to do).

Expansion of Islam in Indonesia at OTL. The Spaniards are in a good position to expand and offer an alternative to tribes that do not want to convert to Islam but have done so otl for lack of options. OTL spain and portugal went to war with countries like ottomans and france. The fact that it's dangerous won't stop them from trying.
View attachment 819623
Ah alright then regarding South Africa.

As for historical Portuguese immigration to Brazil, that was in the context of a native population devastated by introduced diseases, which would not be exactly the same for Southeast Asia.

And regarding the Spanish in Southeast Asia, I'm not saying that they'll all be kept out, but it won't be as simple as taking all the Spaniards who went to the Americas in our time and just shifting them over to the South China Sea. The journey is further and therefore more expensive and dangerous just by itself, while at the same time having smaller rewards available and more danger for the people who go there. These factors would naturally dissuade more people from making the trip and lower the numbers of people who do successfully land (due to more chance of shipwrecks, disease outbreaks at sea, conflicts en route, etc), and then even after landing there's a greater chance of settlements not being able to expand as rapidly and safely as in the Americas, if not outright failing.

Come to think of it, there should be some knock-on effects of more Spaniards staying in Spain, though I'm not sure what. More Spanish mercenaries hiring themselves out in Europe, perhaps?
 
which would not be exactly the same for Southeast Asia.
They have a very important advantage, disease resistance similar to the rest of the old world, something that the natives do not have.
And regarding the Spanish in Southeast Asia, I'm not saying that they'll all be kept out, but it won't be as simple as taking all the Spaniards who went to the Americas in our time and just shifting them over to the South China Sea. The journey is further and therefore more expensive and dangerous just by itself, while at the same time having smaller rewards available and more danger for the people who go there. These factors would naturally dissuade more people from making the trip and lower the numbers of people who do successfully land (due to more chance of shipwrecks, disease outbreaks at sea, conflicts en route, etc), and then even after landing there's a greater chance of settlements not being able to expand as rapidly and safely as in the Americas, if not outright failing
This is true, this immigration will basically be done by men. If we take Portuguese immigration up to the loss of colonies in Asia as a guide, we see that the majority of immigration goes to Asia. Official data from Portugal and Brazil say that between 1500 and 1700, approximately 700,000 emigrants left Portugal, heading for the Portuguese possessions in Africa and Asia. But in Portuguese America, in that same period, no more than 100,000 immigrants entered. While I don't think the same immigration rate will occur (7 : 1), something like (1 : 3) or (1 : 4) is quite possible.
(Asia: America)
Come to think of it, there should be some knock-on effects of more Spaniards staying in Spain, though I'm not sure what. More Spanish mercenaries hiring themselves out in Europe, perhaps?
First, the Spanish economy will become more developed and active. Second I expect to see companies of Spanish mercenaries. Perhaps fighting Protestants in the HRE, Ottomans in the Balkans etc.
 
But those settlers went to the Americas to get in on the looting of the vast native empires. There are no such empires in the Philippines and no rich trove of mineral resources to extract like in Potosi. There are also no empires as such in Indonesia, just small merchant kingdoms and city-states, but they're much better able to resist invaders than the American empires were - note that one of the reasons Portuguese colonizers preferred Brazil to Portugal's Asian possessions was that Brazil was less dangerous for them.
Except they did: mainly spices as well as the fact it was great ground for planting sugar and cocoa, that sort of riches made Portugual very wealthy before it's monopoly was taken over by the Dutch. Here with a Spain focused on it's sole asian colony and with it's economy not becoming over reliant on gold and silver, they'll definitely see the advantage of further controlling and exploring the wealth in there, as well as the fact the Dutch Republic most likely won't exist or at least, be in a different position from otl means they'll have basically no one to threaten them.

Also, Portugal didn't go to Brazil because it was less dangerous, the colony was basically left to languish on it's own and was used as convict dumping ground, unlike the "good men" who sought riches in India and the Far East, there's even a Portuguese book of the 16th century where one of the characters outright begs God to not send him to Brazil because no one who was "good" wanted to go there. It was only with the Asian Empire crumbling in face of the Dutch invasions and the dropping revenues from India due to other European powers settling there that the Portuguese were basically forced to shift their attention towards Brazil and actually work to develop it.
 
They have a very important advantage, disease resistance similar to the rest of the old world, something that the natives do not have.

This is true, this immigration will basically be done by men. If we take Portuguese immigration up to the loss of colonies in Asia as a guide, we see that the majority of immigration goes to Asia. Official data from Portugal and Brazil say that between 1500 and 1700, approximately 700,000 emigrants left Portugal, heading for the Portuguese possessions in Africa and Asia. But in Portuguese America, in that same period, no more than 100,000 immigrants entered. While I don't think the same immigration rate will occur (7 : 1), something like (1 : 3) or (1 : 4) is quite possible.
(Asia: America)

First, the Spanish economy will become more developed and active. Second I expect to see companies of Spanish mercenaries. Perhaps fighting Protestants in the HRE, Ottomans in the Balkans etc.
We'll probably see a lot of "good men"/Hidalgos settling there to try and create their own versions of Haciendas and feudal states where they convert the natives and have them work in his states, given the excess of nobility in Spain, it will do good for the country to have them away building business for the crown.

Speaking of Spain itself, more people there means a likely avoidance of the stagnation suffered from all the wars they kept entering, growth of cities as peasants move into them to take advantage of the growing trade between the Americas, Asia, Africa and Europe (especially because there's no implementation of having Cadiz as the single port where Products come in). So the crown won't be as rich as it was OTL but will have a way healthier economy based on growing trade and cities and colonies, not to mention arms and naval industry as the crown would still seek to fight in wars against the likes of the Ottomans and Protestants. Also, the Revolt of the Comuneros might actually be successful since dear Charlie can't throw money at to solve it much less having a experienced force crush them given they didn't get to fight as much in Italy and we're defeated.
 
We'll probably see a lot of "good men"/Hidalgos settling there to try and create their own versions of Haciendas and feudal states where they convert the natives and have them work in his states, given the excess of nobility in Spain, it will do good for the country to have them away building business for the crown.
Well with the Philippines under Spanish control, they have already started to expand. We see on the map of Spain East Indies with them starting to colonize Taiwan in addition to having a port in China. Other than that, it already has some vassals. It looks like the Spanish will be at war with the Sultanates of Bornean which is close to the Philippines (with probable wars occurring against the Sultanate of Ternate and the Sultanates of Malay later) with the nobles probably expanding more easily into pagan areas. The Majapahit empire recently collapsed (1527), making it the last Hindu-Buddhist empires of the region. So the region is divided.
If I had to guess I would say south of borneo, most of the island of sulawesi, a good part of java and the interior of sumatra. With Malaysia being the most difficult region to convert. With Singapore being an area of importance for the Spaniards who will try to conquer it and fortify it as much as possible. Maybe they will try to colonize Australia due to its proximity?
Map of TTL east asia (to help see the region better)
1679351554788.png

Speaking of Spain itself, more people there means a likely avoidance of the stagnation suffered from all the wars they kept entering, growth of cities as peasants move into them to take advantage of the growing trade between the Americas, Asia, Africa and Europe (especially because there's no implementation of having Cadiz as the single port where Products come in).
Yes, Spain will remain a dynamic power, not falling into decay. While the nation will not shine so brightly as to almost blind the western world as in the OTL. The nation is going to be one of the great powers in the long run. Similar to France. (I really wonder about England's situation in this world. Because the country will not have as many opportunities as OTL.)
So the crown won't be as rich as it was OTL but will have a way healthier economy based on growing trade and cities and colonies, not to mention arms and naval industry as the crown would still seek to fight in wars against the likes of the Ottomans and Protestants. Also, the Revolt of the Comuneros might actually be successful since dear Charlie can't throw money at to solve it much less having a experienced force crush them given they didn't get to fight as much in Italy and we're defeated.
Yes, the crown will not be able to destroy the economy of Spain. Thank God. Now, if the revolt succeeds or at least forces the king to accept most of Spain's demands, it will be a country that will modernize and became very merchant. Probably focused on maintaining its current size in europe (with some expansion here and there) and focusing on the nation's livelihood which is trade in the caribbean and asia.I don't doubt Spain (or Castile) can try to become independent. With the nobility getting weakened and the merchant class getting more powerful as a result.
The five main demands of the revolt:
1-Cancel the taxes voted in the Cortes of Corunna.
2-A return to the local-controlled system of taxation.
3-Reserve official positions and church benefices for Castilians.
4-Prohibit money from leaving the kingdom to fund foreign affairs.
5-Designate a Castilian to lead the kingdom in the absence of the king.
 
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Well with the Philippines under Spanish control, they have already started to expand. We see on the map of Spain East Indies with them starting to colonize Taiwan in addition to having a port in China. Other than that, it already has some vassals. It looks like the Spanish will be at war with the Sultanates of Bornean which is close to the Philippines (with probable wars occurring against the Sultanate of Ternate and the Sultanates of Malay later) with the nobles probably expanding more easily into pagan areas. The Majapahit empire recently collapsed (1527), making it the last Hindu-Buddhist empires of the region. So the region is divided.
If I had to guess I would say south of borneo, most of the island of sulawesi, a good part of java and the interior of sumatra. With Malaysia being the most difficult region to convert. With Singapore being an area of importance for the Spaniards who will try to conquer it and fortify it as much as possible. Maybe they will try to colonize Australia due to its proximity?
Map of TTL east asia (to help see the region better)
View attachment 819663

Yes, Spain will remain a dynamic power, not falling into decay. While the nation will not shine so brightly as to almost blind the western world as in the OTL. The nation is going to be one of the great powers in the long run. Similar to France. (I really wonder about England's situation in this world. Because the country will not have as many opportunities as OTL.)

Yes, the crown will not be able to destroy the economy of Spain. Thank God. Now, if the revolt succeeds or at least forces the king to accept most of Spain's demands, it will be a country that will modernize and became very merchant. Probably focused on maintaining its current size in europe (with some expansion here and there) and focusing on the nation's livelihood which is trade in the caribbean and asia.I don't doubt Spain (or Castile) can try to become independent. With the nobility getting weakened and the merchant class getting more powerful as a result.
The five main demands of the revolt:
1-Cancel the taxes voted in the Cortes of Corunna.
2-A return to the local-controlled system of taxation.
3-Reserve official positions and church benefices for Castilians.
4-Prohibit money from leaving the kingdom to fund foreign affairs.
5-Designate a Castilian to lead the kingdom in the absence of the king.
I don't see Australia being worthy of the attention but Borneo, Flores, the Islands near Papua New Guinea and maybe Timor will be the big prizes given their potential for wealth, Java is probably gonna get claimed by someone else, either the English or French or maybe even the Portuguese or Danes. For now, getting commerce with China and Japan will be another priorities by Spain.

Honestly I would say England will be a "late bloomer" in the colonial game, they won't have much chances in the America outside of the Eastern board of North America or nabbing something from the Spanish in the Caribbean, Asia will also be hard going into given the Portuguese, Spanish and French presence in there and India. So they'll have to contend with others for Java and Sumatra(Which I see will be very coveted between powers) as well as having to claw their way into India, oh well, there's always Africa. Not to mention the fact that the Pope will most likely support Henry VIII's desire for a divorce and allow him to marry again, which likely makes the Tudors survive, even if for a little bit longer, this is important as they were much more worried with British islands and continental affairs unlike the Stuarts who eagerly supported colonization and funded the like of the East India Company, meaning that England will be lagging behind in both the commercial and naval aspect compared to Spain and France.

Honestly the 4th one is pretty important since it would apply to something like The Netherlands which will make them property of the Austrian emperor(who will have a easier time defending them given no Spanish Road TTL and going through the English channel is just asking for the French Navy to sink them) which would free Spain from fighting the very demanding 80 years war. So Spain will be spending it's energies on it's Asian empire as well as the domestic situation, any fights they'll have will be trying to strike at the French in coalitions, conquering and colonizing North Africa and of course, sending troops and navy to aid the Austrians in fighting off the "Turkish Threat". But in general, Spain will focus on itself, centralizing and improving its cities and commerce.
 
Java is probably gonna get claimed by someone else, either the English or French or maybe even the Portuguese or Danes. For now, getting commerce with China and Japan will be another priorities by Spain.
I tend to think that due to the proximity java would be one of the conquered ones, but portugal is still in the region. So something like the Great Game between Spain and Portugal for control of the region would be interesting. England, France and Denmark will probably come later
Honestly I would say England will be a "late bloomer" in the colonial game, meaning that England will be lagging behind in both the commercial and naval aspect compared to Spain and France.
There is late bloomer and there is loss of opportunity. The English have to be careful not to be the second
Honestly the 4th one is pretty important since it would apply to something like The Netherlands which will make them property of the Austrian emperor(who will have a easier time defending them given no Spanish Road TTL and going through the English channel is just asking for the French Navy to sink them) which would free Spain from fighting the very demanding 80 years war.
i tend to think that spain will shift its focus from europe, selling the low countries to austria and investing in the americas,asia and at home.
any fights they'll have will be trying to strike at the French in coalitions, and of course, sending troops and navy to aid the Austrians in fighting off the "Turkish Threat". But in general, Spain will focus on itself, centralizing and improving its cities and commerce.
being a small player in Europe as a whole, to become a big player in the world; It's a good exchange
conquering and colonizing North Africa
Morocco is not as valuable with the Portuguese and Spanish already having control of important coastal cities. Only the top of the region is really worth an invasion. the rainiest area
1679359716504.png
 
I confess to finding the focus on trying to make a more successful Spanish Empire and forced conversions to squick me, but on a more basic political and logistical level, no I don't think anyone is gonna try and colonize 'Australia' this early.

The coastline is incredibly tough in a lot of places and from a European perspective the land is terrible for farming, and it took the British over fifty years to find any mineral wealth that would make it more than a penal colony to them.

Adding to that the journey is crazy long, so all in all there'd be little reason or inclination for the Europeans to be trying to take over there; hell the only reason the British did so is because America's rebellion left them nowhere to send their convicts.
 
confess to finding the focus on trying to make a more successful Spanish Empire and forced conversions to squick me, but on a more basic political and logistical level, no I don't think anyone is gonna try and colonize 'Australia' this early
Perfectly understandable though I find the idea of a Spanish Australia pretty comedic myself
I mean talk about a way to make the kiwis like you even less!
 
I confess to finding the focus on trying to make a more successful Spanish Empire and forced conversions to squick me.
This Spanish empire is a lot less successful than that of OTL, it is a poorer Spain (or rather not as rich). OTL spanish empire controlled most of america which is more valuable than east india. What happens is the fact that by not being able to conquer the Incas, Spain will focus on another area of the world. The failure to conquer the Aztecs does not kill the Spanish Empire, it only changes it. in the same way that not being conquered by the Spanish does not mean that the Aztec empire will succeed (it almost ended due to the purepecha). Not only that, but the lack of excessive wealth will force reforms that the crown was unwilling to carry out and managed to ignore due to the gold and silver of the new world. It's a more organic Spain without the absurd amount of gold and silver to destroy the local economy.
Regarding conversion, this is the norm in all empires, from the Incas to China. all empires want to convert locals. When this does not happen, it is due to the benefit that the non-conversion gives (as in the case of extorting religious minorities as with the Ottomans).
 
How is Japan doing? Perhaps we will have Oda succeeding in unifying Japan. If it follow the OTL , the invasion of Korea is in 1592. With silver going to China in smaller quantities, the Ming will be economically weaker with the expedition to Korea being smaller than that of the OTL (70,000). Especially considering that this expedition was considered a massive expense and that is with new world silver. In comparison, Japan managed to send 160 thousand with relative ease. With the Ming not having a war-ready economy in 1590. So we may have more confusion in this region of Asia. Korea on the other hand still has Admiral Yi sun-shin who is a great strategist. Maybe a faster collapse of the ming?
 
More Spanish influence in the Pacific could lead to a Catholic Japan, since they were a lot more gung-ho than Portugal in regards to proselytizing. Or hell maybe they would invade in response to Wokou piracy (which is something they actually considered OTL), though Dios knows how that would go. Most interesting IMO would be Spain invading during the Sengoku Jidai, as then you have these complex political games of daimyo siding with or against Spain, maybe a coalition of daimyo forming to oust the foreigners and the collaborating daimyos.
 
I highly doubt Japan would ever majority convert to some random outsider religion, and an invasion like that would be an immense undertaking and likely fail, badly.
 
More Spanish influence in the Pacific could lead to a Catholic Japan,
I tend to agree with @Xel that a fully Catholic Japan is hard to come by or even impossible. Now a greater influence from Spain leading to the break of one of the islands I think is possible. Although this will sour relations between Spain and Japan. The island of Kyushu if the Spaniards play their cards right has the chance of being a Catholic island using the Spaniards greatest advantage, the boats. The Japanese army of the period is of similar quality to the Spanish and is playing at home (giving them all the advantage). Now the Japanese navy is horrible, with ships being basically used to transport soldiers and nothing else as we saw in the invasion of Korea. If a Catholic rebellion occurs on the island and they manage to hold it, Spain can protect Kyushu from shogunate invasions. Utilizing their far superior navy.
 
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Part 19: The Last Viking and his Three Crowns
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Part 19: The Last Viking and his Three Crowns

Castle of Tre Kronor, Stockholm
November 7, 1520


Stockholm-from-north-1570-braun-hogenberg-civitates-orbis-terrarum.jpg

Stockholm in the mid 16th century.
For the third consecutive day, the people of the Swedish capital greeted the morning sun with various banquets and other celebrations, and the atmosphere in Stockholm's main castle and royal residence was no different. An assortment of Danish, Norwegian and Swedish nobles and courtiers swarmed its myriad hallways and rooms like ants in an anthill, their robes and extravagant garments creating a rainbow of colors and shiny ornaments. Any outside observer lucky enough to see them partying, drinking and discussing matters of state before partying again could hardly imagine that they were all trying to kill each other as recently as two months ago, when the Swedish capital was besieged by troops loyal to king Christian II, whose coronation had sparked the euphoria that now engulfed it.

And it was because of this very recent past that, despite all the jokes, music and unfathomably expensive foods and beverages, an oppressive, heavy feeling of unease reigned in the air, simmering beneath the smiles of the noblemen. None felt this the weight of this atmosphere more than Gustav Eriksson Vasa, who, like his father and many other Swedes, prominent or not (1), had been a stalwart opponent of the new king, who already held the crowns of Denmark and Norway, until their final defeat in September 1520. Those who, like Gustav, were still alive at the end of hostilities were amnestied and invited to witness Christian's coronation as both a gesture of goodwill and part of a general agreement to ensure Sweden's cooperation in the reborn Kalmar Union. Even so he couldn't help but pay more attention to his monarch - who more than once looked way too pensive to not be plotting something - than to the various plates in front of him. That he kept talking (whispering, really) about... something with archbishop Gustav Trolle didn't help either.

By the time Gustav, his father and other former Sture Party members were finally allowed to leave Tre Kronor, he couldn't help but breathe a sigh of relief (2).
------------------

For more than a century and a half, one of the main driving forces of politics in Scandinavia was the debate on whether the kingdoms of Denmark, Norway and Sweden should all be led by a single monarch or go on their separate ways. The Kalmar Union, as their (personal) unification became known, first came into shape in 1387-88, thanks to the skilled leadership of queen Margaret I of Denmark, and was stable until her death in 1412, after which she was succeeded by her grandnephew Eric of Pomerania. Eric's ambition was too great for his own good, however, and he led the union into a long, fruitless war with Holstein and the Hanseatic League (whose supremacy over trade in the Baltic Sea he hoped to break) that left its constituent kingdoms bankrupt and led to his deposition from his three thrones in 1439. The man the nobles elected as his successor, Christopher of Bavaria, died childless in 1448.

It was after Christopher's death that the cracks between the Scandinavian states - or, to be more specific, Denmark and Sweden, since Norway was firmly in Copenhagen's grasp - came to the surface, since while the former elected Christian of Oldenburg as its king, the latter elected Karl Knutsson in a bid to bring the Kalmar Union under Swedish dominance. Though Christian seized the Swedish throne from Karl in 1457, he lost it to a revolt seven years later, and his attempt to reconquer it in 1471 ended with a spectacular defeat at the hands of Sten Sture the Elder in the Battle of Brunkeberg. It wasn't until 1497 that Christian's son and successor, Hans I, brought Sweden back to the fold, and even then he lost control of it to yet another revolt in 1501.

With Hans' death in 1513, the task of rebuilding the Kalmar Union fell to his son Christian II, a man whose personality was every bit as fierce as his bifurcated red beard. His reign was marked by controversy from the get go thanks to his relationship with Dyveke Sigbritsdatter, which continued after his marriage to Isabella of Austria, much to the ire of his Habsburg in-laws. Dyveke's mother, a Dutch merchant named Sigbrit Willoms, was put in charge of the treasury, a move which made Christian's ultimate goal, to transform Denmark from an agrarian state saddled with a powerful nobility into a centralized and urban one which derived its wealth from commerce, all too clear. Many nobles resented him for it, particularly after the execution of Torben Oxe (one of their own) under the accusation that he was responsible for Dyveke's early death in 1517. Despite this the king still had some reliable allies among them, such as Mogens Gøye, who just so happened to be Denmark's richest aristocrat.
551px-Lucas_Cranach_%28I%29_-_Bildnis_Christians_II.%2C_K%C3%B6nig_von_D%C3%A4nemark_%28MbK%2C_Leipzig%29.jpg

Christian II of Denmark, Norway and Sweden: friend of the commoners, enemy of the nobles.
It was because of allies like him, chancellor Ove Bille and admiral Søren Norby that Christian, despite the not so subtle opposition to his policies at home, nurtured hopes of reuniting Scandinavia under Danish rule. Sweden also had a sizable unionist faction despite its many decades of de facto independence, one led by nobles and clergymen who were tired of the nonstop wars between their country and the Danes. They scored an important victory in 1512, just before Hans' death, by securing the election of Eric Trolle as regent, only for their hopes to be dashed by a coup led by Sten Sture the Younger. The unionist party was, from that moment onward, led by Eric's son, Gustav Trolle, who was archbishop of Uppsala and controlled the mighty fortress of Almarestäket, just west of Stockholm. Sture's men promptly besieged it, and Copenhagen mobilized all it could to its aid.

Twice Christian tried to bring Sweden back under his dynasty's control, and twice he failed. It wasn't until January 1520, during his third and final attempt, that his mercenary army imposed a decisive defeat over the Sture Party at the Battle of Bogesund, in which Sten was mortally wounded and later died on the frozen waters of Lake Mälaren. Even then Stockholm resisted until September, and it only surrendered after a deal whose terms determined that the king would amnesty those who fought against him and give Sweden ample autonomy over its internal affairs. After his coronation two months later, Christian returned to Denmark and left Sweden under the rule of a council whose most prominent members were Gustav Trolle and former Sture ally Gustav Vasa, though most real power was held by the former (3). He had finally reunited Scandinavia, but drove his country to the brink of bankruptcy in the process.

The next few years were, as a result, no less agitated for the king, though they were thankfully peaceful as far as military matters were concerned - Denmark's finances were so fragile that a war may well have brought about his downfall. It was during this period that the Danish Royal Trading Company, the East India Company's direct ancestor, was created, with the purpose to break the Hansa's economic power once and for all and maximize the revenues Copenhagen acquired from the trade of goods such as furs, copper, iron, amber, timber along with countless others, all of which were either produced in areas now controlled by the Kalmar Union or passed through its ports (4). This ruffled a great many feathers in Lübeck and other important Hanseatic cities, and it didn't take long for them to get in contact with those who were fed up with Christian's ever more audacious policies.
418px-Gustav_I_of_Sweden_c_1550.jpg

Gustav Vasa, Christian II's unexpected Swedish ally.

Despite these developments near his seat of power, the first major crisis Christian faced after the conquest of Sweden took place in that very country, in February 1524. Gustav Trolle proved himself to be more interested in settling old scores than managing affairs of state, and his capricious attitude ignited an uprising by the peasants of Dalarna, a hotbed of anti-Danish sentiment since the Engelbrekt rebellion ninety years before (5). They overran most of the province with ease, and would've likely spread further were it not for the quick and decisive action of Gustav Vasa, who, seeking to ingratiate himself in the eyes of the king, departed Stockholm without orders and repressed it with ruthless efficiency (6). One story even says the rebels received him as a liberator (thanks to his pro-Sture past) before being cut down by his men, though its accuracy is debatable.

Gustav's gambit reaped him enormous benefits, since he was showered with land grants and titles within a few months of the uprising's quelling, despite the skepticism in much of Christian's upper circle at how he dealt with it all by himself. This extra wealth and prestige allowed him to eclipse Trolle as Sweden's dominant political figure, and, though most didn't know it yet, ensured his turn from Sture loyalist to devout unionist. With Trolle cast aside, Swedish politics became slightly more functional, enough to nip any spontaneous revolts in the bud. A larger conspiracy simmered beneath the surface, however, bolstered by promises of Hanseatic money and military aid. Its leader was Christina Gyllenstierna, wife of the late Sten Sture the Younger who, thanks to Christian's amnesty, was allowed to keep vast estates and castles in Finland, Södermanland and Småland.

The spark that set everything off was Christian's decision to convert to Lutheranism in April 1526, an act followed by the nationalization of all lands belonging to the Catholic Church (especially its monastic orders, which were widely hated due to their wealth) and their subsequent distribution to his allies. The king's Danish enemies, rallying behind his uncle Frederick, duke of Holstein, finally had the excuse they needed to take up arms, which they did the following month. An army of nobles and mercenaries marched into Jutland, and soon most of the peninsula fell under their control, save for strongpoints like Flensborg, Kolding, Aarhus and Aalborg. The rebels wasted precious time laying siege to these places, and any hope they had of advancing into the main Danish islands slipped away when their fleet, made up of vessels from the Hanseatic cities such as Lübeck, Rostock and Wismar, was defeated south of Funen, in May 20 1526.

The rebels' fate was sealed by a massive peasant uprising in support of the king, led by Klement Andersen, in northern Jutland. Trapped bewteen the peasants and the royal army, which landed in bulk in early July, the rebels deserted or surrendered en masse, while the few who stayed loyal to Frederick retreated to Holstein and made a final stand at Rendsborg in August 9. Both Frederick and his son (who was also named Christian) were killed in action, and the overwhelming majority of the rebel leadership that wasn't already dead or in exile was executed or spent the rest of their lives imprisoned in various castles. The Duke's Feud, as the brief civil war became known, had come to an end, and Christian II's authority over Denmark was stronger than ever (7).

The situation in Sweden couldn't be more different.

Christina Gyllenstierna took advantage of the chaos in Denmark to launch her own rebellion, which began almost as soon as she and her allies heard the news of Frederick's advance into Jutland. With nearly all of the Danish military stuck there for months on end, her allies staged near simultaneous uprisings in the areas already under her power (Finland, Södermanland and Småland) and were promptly joined by the Dalecarlian peasants, who did not waste the opportunity to fight the Danes yet again. United under the symbolic leadership of her eldest son, Nils Stensson Sture, and with almost no opposition before them, Christina's forces overran the country so quickly and decisively that only Kalmar, Västerås and Stockholm itself were under Danish control by the end of the Duke's Feud. Gustav Vasa was holed up in the Swedish capital, having refused to join the rebel ranks out of fear he'd lose the wealth and status granted to him by Christian (8).

Thus, the Danish king and his army had little time to rest before they boarded their ships and made a beeline for Stockholm, their arrival there in mid September giving a major morale boost to the few remaining unionist garrisons. From there the royal army marched to Västerås, which was on the verge of capitulating, and Christina gathered as many of her troops as she could for the clash that would decide the fate of the Kalmar Union. The battle of Västerås was fought in September 28 1526, and it pitted 8.000 Danes and Swedish unionists against 12.000 rebels. Though the latter army was disciplined, had good morale and was one third larger than its opposition, it was almost totally made up of infantry, giving Christian's forces a critical advantage in cavalry and artillery. The Danes scored a decisive victory as a result, forcing Christina to abandon the siege of Västerås and retreat to Uppsala, where her now demoralized troops suffered another defeat in October 15.
Gustav_Vasa_triumphs_3.jpg

A painting celebrating Christian II's victory at Västerås.

With western Sweden secured, it was time to advance into Finland. With Copenhagen's victory assured thanks to the victories at Västerås and Uppsala, the city of Åbo surrendered without a fight, and Christina and the rest of the Sture family fled to Danzig, the protection they received there becoming a major thorn in the side of in relations between Denmark and Poland for decades to come. With the amnesty deal between Christian II and the Sture Party broken by the latter, the king was now free to distribute their lands to whoever he saw fit, which was exactly what he spent the immediate months after the rebellion's defeat doing. With his authority over all of Scandinavia now unchallenged, Christian could embark on another ambitious project of his: reassert Danish control over Greenland, and from there get a foothold in the Americas.

The man he chose to lead his task was Søren Norby, who was quite possibly its greatest enthusiast (9). Norby left the port of Bergen, in Norway, with a fleet of four vessels in April 29 1529, after years of planning and gathering the necessary resources. He made two stops, first in the Faroe Islands and then Iceland, before reaching the site of what was once the settlement of Herjolfsnes, in Greenland's southwestern coast, in July 3. The aging admiral spent the next few months exploring the various fjords and mingling with the Inuit before turning southwest and attempting to approach Terra Nova, only to find himself harrassed by Portuguese ships from Porto Seguro and sail further south than planned in an attempt to escape them.

This detour led them all the way down the east coast of continental North America, and after finally shaking off its pursuers the expedition made landfall near Manhattan Island in October 16. Winter was coming, so the Danes hunkered down and prepared to wait it out rather than risk getting sunk in a storm, building a small fort in the island and establishing relations with the native Lenape people. The fort became the embryo of the settlement that would later be named Christiania, in honor of the king who made it possible for Denmark to found it. The colony it would become the capital of was eventually named New Scania, since most of its original settlers came from that region, ravaged by the nonstop wars fought between the Danes and the Swedes before the Kalmar Union was reestablished for good.

The expedition departed Manhattan in April 9 1530, leaving a small garrison to take care of the fort, and after another entanglement with the Portuguese that cost them one of their ships, returned to Bergen to massive acclaim in July 27. An ecstatic Christian II began to plan another expedition almost immediately after, one with the purpose of establishing a genuine foothold in North America, but Norby wouldn't be granted the honor of leading it due to his death in August.

Still, Scandinavia had officially entered the Age of Discovery, and it was because of this, his signature red beard and ruthless approach to matters of state that Christian II became known as "The Last Viking" in the years after his passing in January 1559.

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Notes:

(1) Believe it or not, the Swedish peasantry was a powerful political force. They were armed, free and deathly afraid of becoming serfs like their Danish counterparts, and thus formed the backbone of the separatist armies.

(2) There are two PODs here; the first is that Gustav Vasa accepts Christian's invitation to attend his coronation (he refused IOTL, a decision that saved his life given said coronation ended with the
Stockholm Bloodbath), and the second is that Christian doesn't break his promise to the people he amnestied just months before.

(3) Think of it as another gesture of reconciliation.

(4) Christian had plans to create such a company IOTL (not the East India one, that will come much later ;)), but they were dashed by his downfall.

(5) The Dalecarlians rebelled as soon as January 1521 IOTL, no doubt because of immediate outrage caused by the Stockholm Bloodbath. They staged several revolts against whoever ruled them in the 16th century, however, so it's inevitable for something to happen. Also, Trolle was one of the Bloodbath's main instigators, so I figured it'd be plausible to characterize him as a vengeful dick.

(6) Gustav Vasa faced several rebellions during his reign as king of Sweden, and he was no less brutal dealing with them than Christian was. His big difference is that he executed peasants rather than nobles (AFAIK), so he was remembered as a "strong leader" rather than a tyrant.


(7) Yes, I copied the name from OTL's Count's Feud.

(8) Gustav and Christina butted heads often during the former's reign IOTL.

(9) Christian was apparently on the verge of giving the green light to such an expedition IOTL, but then his mistakes caught up with him and he was deposed.​
 
Before anyone asks, I absolutely did read @Milites' To be a Fox and a Lion. What made you think that? :openedeyewink:

Also, this update is less an examination of butterflies and more of a shameless display of authorial fiat, because I'm that big a fan of the Kalmar Union. If I had more time to work with (had I put my POD in 1510 or so) I would've had Christian win at Brännkyrka or relieve Almarestäket before it fell, but I unknowingly tied my hands behind my back.
 
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Good seeing the Kalmar Union living on, now hopefully they can keep it together and use their combined powers to defend the Protestant cause in Germany as well as being able to check on Russian growths
 
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