The eagle's left head

[galileo-034]

Naples, February 1353

"No" The word, by Louis of Taranto king of Sicily, was almost a shout.

George Chrysaphis, Theodore's envoy to the Neapolitan cort gave a shrug. "I would strongly advise your majesty to reconsider. The despot's terms are only fair given your... circumstances."

"Release your master from his vassalage, and surrender to him the kingdom's holdings in Greece, Sicily, Terra di Otranto, Basilicata and Terra di Bari. And Theodore expects me to accept such terms?"

"I would note your majesty that you have lost the war. The war you had started I might note. Losing a war comes at a cost. And my lord has instructed me to warn you that if you fail to accept peace now his terms the next time he sends me over here are going to be worse."

"No"

Now, I wonder what could be worse terms for Louis and Joanna.
Territories?
At this point, the Lascarids have achieved all their reasonable territorial objectives against the Angevins have been achieved, and there are not much appetite to expand further into lands with sensibly less to no Greek presence to support Lascarid rule. Charles III has succeeded in losing all Angevin possessions in Greece and Sicily, so there is not much he can trade for, at least none that would be of much interest to the Lascarids.

A permanent Sicilian occupation of the Campanian archipelago perhaps?
Reasonably fortified and held by a strong naval power like the Lascarids', it would be a dagger at Naples' throat and a lasting guarantee.

Supporting the restoration of a sovereign Duchy of Spoleto under the Camponeschi family ?

Restoring an independent Republic of Amalfi as a Lascarid protectorate? Another dagger at Naples' throat; yet, was there anyone in Amalfi desiring this in the mid 14th century IOTL, even a communal movement that would welcome Lascarid liberators?

 

[Basileus_of_the_Hellenes]

A permanent Sicilian occupation of the Campanian archipelago perhaps?
Reasonably fortified and held by a strong naval power like the Lascarids', it would be a dagger at Naples' throat and a lasting guarantee.

Well if we look at the status of the Despotate's lands in 1353 under the Truce of Naples, we'll see that the Despot controls the islands of the Southern Tyrhennian (assumed due to the control of the islands outside Naples in a recent part update), so under the terms of the truce, these lands are the Despot's already...

Sneak peak at the 1353 map for the GIF!

Cool thing to note is that I think this is the most land in Italy a Hellenic nation-state has controlled since the fall of the Exarchate of Ravenna? I don't think Basil II even had this much land in Italy, as Sicily was lost in the ninth century?

Constantinople, April 1353

Ioannis VI proclaimed his son Matthaios co-emperor. There would be some trouble with patriarch Callistus refusing to crown Matthaios, which would be solved by the simple expedient of replacing Callistus with a new patriarch Philotheus. The new patriarch would duly crown Mattheos co-emperor the next February. But the Ottomans were still refusing to leave Tzympe and Ioannis V was still holed up in Tenedos. Manuel who had inherited his father's abilities was busily building up a fleet in Lesvos but as long as the Venetian navy was in the Aegean and allowed by Ioannis V to use Tenedos as a base was not in position to attack his brother in law.

Classic Palaiologan Civil War here, with the Venetians in Tenedos and Genoese in Galata. Most likely Theodore will want some years of peace after Dusan dies and peace is established on the Balkan front, but I wonder if Theodore will simply let the opportunity of this Civil War and the Ottoman Expansion in Thrace be until the threat is on his border?

 

[X Oristos]

At this point, the Lascarids have achieved all their reasonable territorial objectives against the Angevins have been achieved, and there are not much appetite to expand further into lands with sensibly less to no Greek presence to support Lascarid rule. Charles III has succeeded in losing all Angevin possessions in Greece and Sicily, so there is not much he can trade for, at least none that would be of much interest to the Lascarids.

I think the only region that will be of interest to the Lascarids is Capitanata. Terra di Bari is open for invasion from that direction and also provides economic synergy if incorporated back to the rest of Apulia. The Despotate will be much more defensible by putting the Apennines between themselves and Naples. I take it for granted that Louis will try to attack again in the future, so I expect the future battlefields to be Terra di Bari and Capitanata.

Restoring an independent Republic of Amalfi as a Lascarid protectorate? Another dagger at Naples' throat; yet, was there anyone in Amalfi desiring this in the mid 14th century IOTL, even a communal movement that would welcome Lascarid liberators?

Unfortunately that ship has sailed. After the 1343 tsunami, the port of Amalfi was destroyed and the city lost its ability to be a trade power as in past centuries.

Supporting the restoration of a sovereign Duchy of Spoleto under the Camponeschi family ?

That would be the best for the Sicilians. I think it is very doable since the Abruzzo elites were insular and predated the Angevins, the Hohenstaufen and even the Normans. I think a case can be made that Abruzzo had a distinct identity.
The long war that has destroyed multiple angevin armies is not over yet. A lot of blood will be spilled to defeat the Voivode of Transylvania and the end result will be a devastated Campania that has been bled white. That's leveling the playing field between Naples and Abruzzo. Robert the Bruce had faced much more challenging circumstances compared to TTL Camponeschi and the population and wealth difference between Abruzzo and Naples is not as dire as that of Scotland and England.

 

[galileo-034]

I think the only region that will be of interest to the Lascarids is Capitanata. Terra di Bari is open for invasion from that direction and also provides economic synergy if incorporated back to the rest of Apulia. The Despotate will be much more defensible by putting the Apennines between themselves and Naples. I take it for granted that Louis will try to attack again in the future, so I expect the future battlefields to be Terra di Bari and Capitanata.

That then begs the question of how the Despotate policies will evolve now that it's controlling areas with sizeable non Greek populations, because even if the have strong Greek me minorities or pluralities, we have to view those now in the minority.

Will Latin rite churches be let easy or will there be political and fiscal pressure (ie other than simply social pressure, or than "only the Greek rite churches are opened because the whole Despotate has been excommunicated" thing) to switch to Greek basilian rite?
Even though, the rites question might, by proxy, evolve into a question over these churches being relays of influence and meddling by the Pope.
And does the excommunication of the Despotate automatically extends to the new conquests of the Despotate, even though since there is a truce and not a peace treaty, these are legally still Angevin lands?

I'm thinking that, the more the Lascarids expand into Angevin Italy, the more acute these kinds of question will become.

 

[X Oristos]

I'm thinking that, the more the Lascarids expand into Angevin Italy, the more acute these kinds of question will become.

Very much so! And it is a very good incentive to severely limit their expansion. Having said that, Capitana was very thinly populated: after a century of recovery from the plague, it reached 11,968 hearths in 1447. Right after the plague, while having suffered a hungarian occupation and becoming a batttlefield ? The population would be quite low.

Speaking about the post-plague population figures, Sakellariou presents a table only for 1447. While it is a useful tool that I use, I am under the suspicion that these patterns do not correspond very well with the post-plague patterns. While the plague had by far the greatest influence, the policies of a whole century must have shaped the 1447 patterns as well.

And then there are the differences because of the ATL butterflies. Let me provide an example: In OTL food security was achieved with apulian grain. Now a great deal of it is gone. Sardinia and Lazio are poor substitutes and not as reliable. Then, the Sicilians will enjoy naval supremacy so they can cut off Campania. It makes sense that Terra di Lavoro and Principato will focus more on grain production to the detriment of cash crops like flax and olive oil. At the same time, Naples has lost access to cheap cotton from Calabria and Terra di Otranto/Bari, raw silk from Calabria and wool from Basilicata. Overall, it will be tougher to have a vibrant textile industry in Naples compared to OTL. I don't see Naples growing as much as in OTL.

Then it is the matter of internal politics: having lost most of Apulia with its extensive royal demesne in addition to Calabria, the position of the barons will be much more powerful. What happens when the Crown depends on barons, well Frederickian Sicily is a prime example. This won't be a recipe of prosperity. While I doubt it will be as bad, I think it will be bad enough.

But even if we take the 1447 OTL population pattern for granted, the Mainland Italian Despotate has more or less similar population to Naples (Principato Ultra and Citra, Terra di Lavoro, Molise and Capitanata). Naples has only 2,27 times greater population than Abruzzo (Citra and Ultra). Aragon had worst odds versus Castille.

 

[Lascaris]

Considering the above mentioned stalemate, the Despotate sea mastery and after reading, this my first thoughts were 'Inchon' and the 'Via Egnatia'... But, I'm not an expert neither in the time period militar history nor in the region geography, so perhaps it wouldn't be possible to use it to get an army at the Dusan's army backs...

Durazzo I should note has a Serb garrison TTL. Which is not going to just roll over because Theodore has shown up with an army and a fleet. And after Durazzo has been taken there are several more fortresses on the road to Thessaloniki...

We have an ambitious lad here...

Not unsurprising really. At least we don't have an incompetent lad... so far at least.

After the loss of half his army in 1353, the loss of many castles, the loss of papal support and the devastation of his remaining lands, he will have a bitter struggle ahead in order to defeat the Hungarians. It might be take more than a campaigning season to reclaim so many castles.

I'll say it again. When starting the TL I was not counting on the sheer level of stupidity shown by both the Neapolitan Angevins and the House of Barcelona. I mean seriously. These people took what was one of the better off places of Europe and did such a good job of running it to the ground that in some ways it never managed to recover.

How is Lalle doing in Abruzzo ?

As of the end of 1353 he's controlling nearly all of Abruzzo Ultra...

At which point does Dusan decide that the juice is not worth the squeeze in Thessaly? The Ottomans in Thrace could give him an out if wanted it.

What happens to the feudal lords to which he has parceled out land in Thessaly if he gives it up without a fight. If he does how his other vassals react?

With Sardinia up in revolt I wonder how the Lascarids would take advantage of it. After all, Aragon is one of the actors in the Med that could contest them at this point in time, and getting Sardinian influence out of the boundaries of the Lascarid domains would be a good thing to do in general.

Common sense would be to do nothing against Aragon or Venice for that matter as long as the war with Serbia is not over.

And Louis gives up fighting everyone at the same time.

About time too.

And the Lascarids bring their whole war-making capability to bear against Dusan. If they crush Dusan's army and make enough time I think they could easily take Epirus and Macedonia, especially when the ERE is so weak. Add to the fact that the Turks are literally invading from Anatolia and I think the Despotate won't give a shit about the situation the ERE is in. After all, the despotate is the more powerful state since Andronikos III...

The words you are looking for here is "heavily castellated"

Wow truly excellent tl. Finally caught up.

Thanks for the good words!

The most important objective here, politically, is liberating Thessaly, which was Lascarid territory before the war.
Invading Epirus doesn't achieve that in a direct manner.
But getting in the rear of the Serbian army and cutting them from their bases in Serbia, that would.

I should note these are 14th century armies. They can literally live of the land at least for a time. It's not as is they are going to run out of munitions if they do.

If they don't withdraw north to meet the threat, then they are trapped in Thessaly, a hostile country with limited resources to plunder,

Well at a minimum it's... difficult to starve in the Thessalian plain.

But yeah Theodore/Alexandros II access to a lot more resources than Louis and I think the Lascarids know it, and have better tactics against cavalry, while Louis still thinks he could win for some reason.

God is with him! He is the god anointed king of Sicily and Jerusalem is he not?

Frankly I think Epirus could be dealt with if the Lascarids go on the warpath with 25k men in the Thessalian front while 5-10k men march in Epirus, forcing Dusan to choose.

That's too many even if every single soldier in the despotate was sent east.

To be honest after being excommunicated several times on a generational level( i'm laughing at a scenario of grandpa telling " back in my days i got excommunicated 5 times only for having breakfast"), i wouldn't be surprised if, considering that there is still a considerable Greek minority + the ones that recently migrated, the common people start considering to go for the orthodox faith.
i mean the Greeks came and helped several times while the other Latins ,in the name of the pope, instead have come and pillaged, raped, murdered and plundered.

Given what era we are talking about... I mean you are having the spiritual Franciscans, the western schism, the council of Basel, the Hussites... and Italian city states like Venice outright ignoring the papacy/

As for the Bulgars, I don't know, but Macedonia... Was it that hard to dispose of the Serbs when they had been infighting since Dusan's death? IOTL, Murad did not have serious obstacles as the Lascarids would be into the 1360s and 1370s.

Well OTL indicates it was not particularly easy. After all the Serb statelets made it to the end of the 14th century and were the only ones to mount a halfway serious challenge to the Ottomans.

Genoa... An ally of the Lascarids still, right?

Technically not, but they have reasons to be more friendly to Genoa that Venice.

I would bet that most of the reforms have been diminished after the civil war that destroyed much of Constantinople's state capacity. Thrace has been plunded for years by different mercenary armies of the two sides. I think that now as in OTL, the cities are left to basically fend for themselves. At this point - even before the fall of Gallipoli, the Ottomans are raiding as far as Raidestos.

That's a logical assumption. This is the third civil war within a generation...

Having said that, it seems that in 1353-1354, the Ottoman forces in Europe were quite limited. It seems that before the earthquake, Suleyman Pasha had around 3,000 men.

And a year earlier at Dydimoteichon apparently 10,000...

Moreover, Doukas mentions that Suleyman was killed in a battle against Matthew Kantakouzenos in 1357. Even if it was not the case, it indicates that until 1357 the Byzantines had some capacity of resistance,

Alternatively he got killed in a hunting accident. After all Matt was using a Turkish army against the Serbs at the time. But I would not be surprised if Ioannis Kantakouzenos proved more difficult to deal with compared to Ioannis V who never really struck me as particularly capable.

Genoa is fed with sicilian grain and its trade in the East can continue only with Syracuse's approval. Venice has an extremely limited window of opportunity to act like that- before 1356 when Lajos focuses towards them - a focus that ended up with the loss of Dalmatia in 1358. After that point, it would be extremely risky to go to war with Sicily.

The question is if Venicecan afford under certain circumstances not to go at war. As for Genoa... Genoa is more complicated given its internal politics compared to Venice...

 

[galileo-034]

Well at a minimum it's... difficult to starve in the Thessalian plain.

When is the harvest season already? Oh and those... Wait, where are all the peasants gone? South... What do you mean they are fleeing our most benevolent overlordship?

 

[galileo-034]

Also, I'm curious to see if and how would Halil Bey's kidnapping play out ITTL, given the different context; which leads me to Leo Kalothetos and his TTL whereabouts, since as a native Chios, I'm guessing he'd probably be in Lascarid employ this time around, and not in Old Phocaea. But would Halil be brought here in the first place?
Could Theodore or Alexandros decide to help Orhan recovering his son?

 

[Xenophonte]

Which is not going to just roll over because Theodore has shown up with an army and a fleet.

I don't think that I ever have implied such thing...

Durazzo I should note has a Serb garrison TTL.

Indeed, but besides that it might well be a worthy target either by itself or even, perhaps, for attracting Dusan there...

But, was it so well fortified and/or with has it so larger garrison that would make it able to resist/repel a decided assault?

And after Durazzo has been taken there are several more fortresses on the road to Thessaloniki...

Were any of these so bigger or has such location, that would make if not impossible at least unwise to put them under siege and left them 'for later' and march to relieve Thessalonica. And, ofc, if feasible, it would get them, in the relieved city, an important base from where coordinate their forces and face to Dusan...

 

[pls don't ban me]

View attachment 894553

So... basically... ancient greece and Magna Greece reunited? hahahah

 

[galileo-034]

Well at a minimum it's... difficult to starve in the Thessalian plain.

When is the harvest season already? Oh and those... Wait, where are all the peasants gone? South... What do you mean they are fleeing our most benevolent overlordship?

Well, more seriously, that plain has been for the past six years a constant battlefield between the Serbs and the Lascarids, with its many sieges, coming just after one of the worst epidemics of plague in history. I would find it lucky to only lose one third of its pre plague population, but with six years of Serbian invasion and sieges... Need I factor in those peasants and other denizens of Thessaly who'd surely flee to the safety of Attica and Peloponnese rather than endure this ordeal further. I'd expect the population at least halved.
Between pestilence, famine and war, I'm hardly expecting the plains of Thessaly to still give much in the way of harvests, at a level that could sustain armies for long.

 

[Quinkana]

Durazzo I should note has a Serb garrison TTL. Which is not going to just roll over because Theodore has shown up with an army and a fleet. And after Durazzo has been taken there are several more fortresses on the road to Thessaloniki...

Other than making Dusan take notice I think it is possible for the city's Greeks to betray Dusan. Ofc it isn't the most likely thing to happen, but it is doable if enough Lascarid propaganda has spread into Durazzo.

The words you are looking for here is "heavily castellated"

tbf wdym? Are you talking about the Lascarids or the Serbs?

Also I really do want to know how much cannonry the Lascarids are using rn. We know it is used in one of the naval battles already, and with the Visconti having used cannonry to besiege Conselice I think the Lascarids would move towards more and more cannons being used in their wars, especially when they are besieging the enemy.

God is with him! He is the god anointed king of Sicily and Jerusalem is he not?

And that's why he is going the way of Frederick III: isolated and unable to realise his geopolitical objectives.

Well OTL indicates it was not particularly easy. After all the Serb statelets made it to the end of the 14th century and were the only ones to mount a halfway serious challenge to the Ottomans.

But they are split into squabbling factions, which ultimately made them fall against the Ottomans. I'm pretty sure a concerted effort by the Lascarids will be able to deal with them, since the Lascarids have trained a good punch of good generals who will be able to fight against the Serb statelets.

 

[galileo-034]

In the context of the still ongoing Hungarian invasion of Naples, Camponeschi's rebellion and the Lascarid-Angevin truce, is there any reason Rienzo's return in Rome goes differently ITTL?

 

[Lascaris]

Gallipoli, March 1354

The Ottomans took advantage of an earthquake to capture and refortify the city. Ioannis VI would offer to buy it back. Orhan would first agree to give it back in exchange for money then fail to appear in the meeting where he was supposed to get paid...

Demetrias, April 1354

Theodore Doukas Lascaris landed in Demetrias at the head of an army of 5,000 men moving quickly west to join with Alexandros army that was already campaigning against Dusan's Serbs. Theodore had virtually stripped Sicily of troops leaving behind only 2,000 men aside from garrisons. But it was likely a risk that could be taken. Even if Louis broke the recently concluded truce he could barely scrap together 5,000 men. The Hungarians had about 4,000 mercenaries in Italy. Lalle lord of Abruzzo over 2,000 more...

Scotussa, Thessaly, September 1354

Dusan had refused battle for the previous six months frustrating time and again every move by Theodore. But in the end he had been forced into battle in the hills north of Scotussa, a place that had seen its share of battles in the past. The Sicilians would enter the fight with about 25,000 men. Dusan would be slightly outnumbered fielding about 23,000 men. The Sicilians would win the battle but it would not come cheaply as they would lose 4,000 men to the Serbs nearly 6,000. And while not every man on the winning side was dying this wasn't making the casualties much less painful after nearly a decade of war...

Larisa, Thessaly, November 1354

The city had been liberated from the Serbs in the aftermath of the battle of Scotussa but with the campaign season so late Theodore's army had failed to make any spectacular gains besides Larisa in the aftermath of the victory. And for Theodore an entire campaign first in Thessaly's heat and then in its winter had been brutal for the health of a 64 year old. Theodore would die after a short illness in Larisa.

Sapienza, Peloponnese, November 1354

The Genoese navy decisively defeated the Venetian outside Methone. The war between Genoa and Venice would technically continue till the next June when the duke of Milan would mediate a peace between the two republics but was as good as over...

Athens, December 1354

With virtually the entire Sicilian army under him Alexandros did not have much trouble proclaiming himself despot of Sicily and Hellas. After all it wasn't as if anyone could seriously challenge the hold of the dynasty in their lands any more...

Constantinople, December 1354

Ioannis V had offered Francesco Gattilusio the hand of his sister and the lordship of Lesbos is he managed to restore him in Constantinople. Francesco had enough self confidence to do so with all of two galleys entering Constantinople at night and raising the city in revolt. Within days Ioannis V would be back in the queen of cities and Ioannis VI Kantakouzenos would retire to a monastery where he would spend the next several decades writing. But if Ioannis VI had decided for some reason to retire without a fight this was not true for his sons, who both remained at large...

Milan, January 1355

Charles IV of Bohemia was proclaimed king on Italy. Come April he would be proclaimed holy Roman emperor in Rome and true to his agreement with the pope leave Rome on the same day with his coronation.

Syracuse, March 1355

Alexandros II Doukas Vatatzes Lascaris was crowned for the second time, in the cathedral of Syracuse with the parliament of Sicily proclaiming its fealty to him. Back in Greece Alexandros had left Ioannis Buas in command of the army that was to continue the war against the Serbs. With Alexandros having to take troops back with him to Sicily, Buas task was not going to be as easy as it would had been had Theodore still lived...

Serbia, April 1355

The ongoing war against Lithuania had kept king Louis of Hungary from going to war against Serbia despite skirmishing between Hungarian and Serb forces on the border. But now Louis third Lithuanian campaign was over and and the pope was also instigating Louis to taje more active measures against the Serbs, as Stefan Dusan on one hand was writing to the pope that he wanted to covert his entire kingdom to Catholicism but at the same time was outright persecuting Catholics within his realm. The Hungarian invasion of Serbia would have only limited effect with Dusan stalling it and avoiding battle. But it also meant that the largest part of the Serb army had to move north to fight the Hungarians instead of fighting the Sicilians in the south...

Lesbos, July 1355

Manuel Kantakouzenos had taken less than well to Gattilusio showing up in Mytiline with imperial order to give Lesbos over to a Genoese former pirate. Francesco was hardly the kind of man to be deterred by a mere Greek's refusal or the odds. Perhaps he should have as Manuel would prove a much tougher customer than his father crushing Francesco small squadron and killing him.

Skopje, November 1355

Stefan Dusan took the reports from the south in stride. With two thirds of his army fighting the Hungarians in the north the Greeks had been able to drive his army and garrisons out of their remaining holdings in Thessaly. He could try a new invasion he supposed. But the war against the Sicilian despot, now the despot of Sicily and Hellas he supposed had proven a frustrating affair with little gain. The war with Hungary and the advance of the Ottoman armies in Thrace gave him as good an excuse as any to cut his losses and offer peace to the new despot. He could invade again under better conditions in the future...

 

[Valin Arcadius]

Now it is time to rest and recover.

 

[Rommel1941]

Next round the ottomans

 

[DankStalin]

Next round the ottomans

Maybe after a few decades, after all the war has bled the Lascarids quite heavily

Though is the peace a white peace? Feels like the Lascarids could have gotten some money from Stefan, the "I got silver mines to fund me invading everyone" guy.

 

[Sceonn]

He could invade again under better conditions in the future...

"So can the Despot Stefan, so can the Despot"

 

[galileo-034]

Maybe after a few decades, after all the war has bled the Lascarids quite heavily

Though is the peace a white peace? Feels like the Lascarids could have gotten some money from Stefan, the "I got silver mines to fund me invading everyone" guy.

If Dusan lives long enough to make that peace...
If signing the peace treaty was to befall on his son Uros, one might wonder if the new Serb king will proceed and risk a revolt of his vassals for abandoning Thessaly.

And if Alexandros smells blood in the water, he might as well try taking a bite at Serb Macedonia and Epirus...

 

[Vince]

If Dusan lives long enough to make that peace...
If signing the peace treaty was to befall on his son Uros, one might wonder if the new Serb king will proceed and risk a revolt of his vassals for abandoning Thessaly.

And if Alexandros smells blood in the water, he might as well try taking a bite at Serb Macedonia and Epirus...

We must have a land bridge to Thessalonica. The Byzantine MEIOU player in me couldn't resist doing that.