The eagle's left head

[pls don't ban me]

As for the Bulgars, I don't know, but Macedonia... Was it that hard to dispose of the Serbs when they had been infighting since Dusan's death? IOTL, Murad did not have serious obstacles as the Lascarids would be into the 1360s and 1370s.

not t be that guy, but i think it's Bulgarians at this point and not Bulgars.

there is like 600 years of merge with the slavs

 

[X Oristos]

I'm curious though to see how Ioannis VI's pronoia reforms might affect this event. It has been over twenty years he applied the pronoia reform in Gallipoli (July 1331 entry), and we already saw the Byzantines repelling the Genoese assault on Lesvos (May 1347) which the Empire had reconquered back in 1329 and where it had applied the pronoia system early (September 1329, March 1330).
Will Gallipoli fall that easily to the Turks this time?

I would bet that most of the reforms have been diminished after the civil war that destroyed much of Constantinople's state capacity. Thrace has been plunded for years by different mercenary armies of the two sides. I think that now as in OTL, the cities are left to basically fend for themselves. At this point - even before the fall of Gallipoli, the Ottomans are raiding as far as Raidestos.

Having said that, it seems that in 1353-1354, the Ottoman forces in Europe were quite limited. It seems that before the earthquake, Suleyman Pasha had around 3,000 men.

Moreover, Doukas mentions that Suleyman was killed in a battle against Matthew Kantakouzenos in 1357. Even if it was not the case, it indicates that until 1357 the Byzantines had some capacity of resistance,

At the time of his grandfather one may note Gallipoli was retaken by Amadeus of Savoy and held for almost a decade... during that decade the Ottomans expanded in Bulgaria and Macedonia...

Well, by the time of the Savoyard Crusade, the Ottomans had almost a decade of moving whole Turkmen tribes to Thrace, not just warriors. Their families and flocks as well. The Gallipoli peninsula was colonized in 1357-1359 and afterwards the tribes expanded north. By the time of the Savoyard Crusade, the Ottomans controlled basically all Thrace other than Adrianople and Bizye that were blockaded and they had reached the Nestos River. At that point, it was doable to sustain the ottoman state in Europe with some luck: the one time their enemies managed to field a proper army, they were drunk and were slaughtered in their tents by a much smaller ottoman host. If someone in alternatehistory.com wrote the Battle of Marica as Deus ex Machina, people would accuse him of sloppy writing.

But if the Savoyard Campaign took place a decade earlier in 1356? Then I think its impact would have been different.

And it is not as if Theodore would be dense enough to disregard the ottoman threat for years at a time. Even if that was the case, the Despotate's merchants and especially the Monemvasiots that had a great deal of commercial presence in the region, would find the Ottomans controlling both sides of the Dardanelles rather threatening and could covet Gallipoli for themselves. They had a merchant colony in Pegae after all.

And did the Savoyard crusade actually had a permanent naval presence to interdict the Straits? I think the Lascarids, being already established in the region can maintain such long term interdiction unlike the crusaders.

Exactly! The Green Count gave Gallipoli back to Ioannis on his way home. I sincerely doubt that it included all the Gallipoli Peninsula. There are no mentions of rebuilding the 6km-long wall at Plagiarion (Bolayir) and garrisoning it. Constantinople did not have the means to turn the Gallipoli Peninsula into an offensive base to cut off the Ottomans from Asia Minor. Most likely, they kept just the city of Gallipoli with the rest of the peninsula in ottoman hands.

Overall, the ability of the Catepanate (without any help from Sicily) to capture the Gallipoli Peninsula and turn it into a defensive and offensive base, is incredibly more potent than that of Constantinople in 1367.

This was actually tried in real live during the Varna crusade with a crusader fleet blockading the straits. So Murad marched further north to the Bosporus... where he found Genoese ships to transport his army over to Europe.

Acting like that against the Byzantines and acting like that against the Sicilians is a different thing altogether.

Genoa is fed with sicilian grain and its trade in the East can continue only with Syracuse's approval. Venice has an extremely limited window of opportunity to act like that- before 1356 when Lajos focuses towards them - a focus that ended up with the loss of Dalmatia in 1358. After that point, it would be extremely risky to go to war with Sicily. Having said that, it is one thing to transport an army once and another to facilitate the transport of whole tribes over many years.

 

[galileo-034]

At that point, it was doable to sustain the ottoman state in Europe with some luck: the one time their enemies managed to field a proper army, they were drunk and were slaughtered in their tents by a much smaller ottoman host. If someone in alternatehistory.com wrote the Battle of Marica as Deus ex Machina, people would accuse him of sloppy writing.

By the 1370s, I doubt this settlement would have been important enough to give the Ottomans a local pool of manpower than can survives a Lascarid invasion if they are cut off from Asia.

On Maritsa, sure, I doubt the Lascarids under Alexandros' leadership, or any other of those Lascarid army cadres formed in the Philantropenos school, would stumble into such a blunder.

 

[galileo-034]

f you want to get technical the Ottoman holdings in Anatolia post black death should have about 480,000 people or so at the moment. That's roughly comparable to the Lascarid holdings in Greece which would have around 600,000.

And if you add Macedonia and Epirus to the Lascarid Greece ?
And whatever is left of the Empire after the loss of Thrace to the Turks ?

 

[Tursiops Amicus]

This could be what happens, and when the Despotate eventually takes over Constantinople they stay in Syracuse due to the inertia of having stayed in Syracuse for so long.

I find more useful in this case to move the capital to Athens because it would have a more or less central position.

 

[Avrorrange]

I find more useful in this case to move the capital to Athens because it would have a more or less central position.

I foresee a travelling court.

 

[galileo-034]

While the center of gravity of the Despotate remains in the Ionian sea, Syracuse is going to stay the capital. For Athens to become the capital, the center of gravity would have to shift, which requires a huge expansion eastward, like in 'Anatolian reconquista' expansion; otherwise, it's going to remain the regional capital for the Catepanate.

 

[nkd1325]

While the center of gravity of the Despotate remains in the Ionian sea, Syracuse is going to stay the capital. For Athens to become the capital, the center of gravity would have to shift, which requires a huge expansion eastward, like in 'Anatolian reconquista' expansion; otherwise, it's going to remain the regional capital for the Catepanate.

I don't know, I think a conquest of Thrace and Constantinople would shift the gravity eastward enough to justify moving to Athens. Though yeah they're going to stay in Sicily until the Lascarids once more rule the City of World's Desire.

 

[galileo-034]

I don't know, I think a conquest of Thrace and Constantinople would shift the gravity eastward enough to justify moving to Athens. Though yeah they're going to stay in Sicily until the Lascarids once more rule the City of World's Desire.

How so?
Lascarid control of the Aegean waters north of Crete, Rhodes, Chios, and Thasos, are as good a stranglehold on the Black Sea bound shipping lanes. And though Athens might captate the Balkan trade from Thessaloniki or the Black Sea trade from Constantinople, the Levantine and Egyptian trade routes to Europe are much further south.
The Ionian sea is the center of gravity of the Despotate not only because of its central position between Sicily and Greece, but also because by controlling it, the Despotate controls all passages from the Eastern to the Western Mediterranean sea and to the Adriatic sea, and that's one of the cornerstones of its power, and its status as a Mediterranean big power, rival if not superior to Venice, Genoa and Aragon.
Adding Thrace and Constantinople to the collection is not going to change that balance.

 

[Valin Arcadius]

All this debate regarding the capital raises an interesting question. If the Despotate can be considered the bedrock of a third refounding of the Empire (Ancient, Medieval, Renaissance) and it finds itself in a similar if not identical position to the early gunpowder empires. What is a reasonable territorial extent for them to be able to retake in the east?

Personally, given what the Ottomans were able to achieve with a similar foundation I don't think a total reconquest of Anatolia, the Levant, Egypt and North Africa is out of the question if they play their cards right.

At which point the capital will naturally gravitate back to Constantinople.

 

[Project98]

All this debate regarding the capital raises an interesting question. If the Despotate can be considered the bedrock of a third refounding of the Empire (Ancient, Medieval, Renaissance) and it finds itself in a similar if not identical position to the early gunpowder empires. What is a reasonable territorial extent for them to be able to retake in the east?

Personally, given what the Ottomans were able to achieve with a similar foundation I don't think a total reconquest of Anatolia, the Levant, Egypt and North Africa is out of the question if they play their cards right.

At which point the capital will naturally gravitate back to Constantinople.

Anatolia I could see them try for political, strategic interest in trying the correct choice of word is trying but the rest literally they with the circumnavigation of Africa and the discovery causing literally a drying up of funds .
They don't have the Muslim traditions in kidnapping and slaves armies , and conquer less rich areas does not make sense .
So I would see them trying to Monopolize the black sea trade as their lifeline .
They are not the reverse ottoman empire.
They would be more screwed than the ottoman empire because they are an internal element of European realpolitik.
So they can't go full religious taxes , support pirates states ,getting rich from the slave trade and raids.
But they are much more flexible than the ottoman so I would see a Swedish situation.

 

[Quinkana]

I find more useful in this case to move the capital to Athens because it would have a more or less central position.

I don't know, I think a conquest of Thrace and Constantinople would shift the gravity eastward enough to justify moving to Athens. Though yeah they're going to stay in Sicily until the Lascarids once more rule the City of World's Desire.

Frankly I could see Sicily putting its capital in Syracuse bc if Aragon/Spain/France becomes one of their main enemies in the Med Sicily will be on the front lines, and keeping your capital there in case something happens is something that I could see happen.

That's what the Ming and Qing did after all with Beijing.

And it is not as if Theodore would be dense enough to disregard the ottoman threat for years at a time. Even if that was the case, the Despotate's merchants and especially the Monemvasiots that had a great deal of commercial presence in the region, would find the Ottomans controlling both sides of the Dardanelles rather threatening and could covet Gallipoli for themselves. They had a merchant colony in Pegae after all.

That's true, I do think Theodore/Alexandros would be a lot more attentive to Ottoman movements, but I've no idea how much they'd move against them, especially if they're potentially fighting the Venetians (let's just say that Serbia breaks apart soon after Dusan dies).

Personally, given what the Ottomans were able to achieve with a similar foundation I don't think a total reconquest of Anatolia, the Levant, Egypt and North Africa is out of the question if they play their cards right.

Anatolia I could see them try for political, strategic interest in trying the correct choice of word is trying but the rest literally they with the circumnavigation of Africa and the discovery causing literally a drying up of funds .

I could see Western Anatolia being captured but I don't see Central Anatolia being controlled by Syracuse, even if the Lascarids conquer the city of the world's desire. That's one of the reasons why I think the Timurids would become the main 'Persian empire' against the 'Romans' ittl. But I really don't see the Lascarids conquering Egypt and the Levant, especially if we get alternate gunpowder empires in Persia, in Anatolia, and in Egypt.

Frankly the other route I see the Lascarids going is conquering Northern Africa. Gibraltar is the main thing that's going to stop them from trading outside the med, and if Spain controls one side of the straits and is an enemy of the Lascarids I don't see the Lascarids straight up crusading against the Moroccans to take control of the African side and allowing them to have some stake over the Atlantic trade and to explore Africa and stuff.

All in all I could see Syracuse controlling the African slave trade if they connect to the Arab slave trade as an alternate source of slaves, especially if they keep the Portuguese away from Mozambique.

 

[Avrorrange]

Frankly I could see Sicily putting its capital in Syracuse bc if Aragon/Spain/France becomes one of their main enemies in the Med Sicily will be on the front lines, and keeping your capital there in case something happens is something that I could see happen.

That's what the Ming and Qing did after all with Beijing.

That's true, I do think Theodore/Alexandros would be a lot more attentive to Ottoman movements, but I've no idea how much they'd move against them, especially if they're potentially fighting the Venetians (let's just say that Serbia breaks apart soon after Dusan dies).


I could see Western Anatolia being captured but I don't see Central Anatolia being controlled by Syracuse, even if the Lascarids conquer the city of the world's desire. That's one of the reasons why I think the Timurids would become the main 'Persian empire' against the 'Romans' ittl. But I really don't see the Lascarids conquering Egypt and the Levant, especially if we get alternate gunpowder empires in Persia, in Anatolia, and in Egypt.

Frankly the other route I see the Lascarids going is conquering Northern Africa. Gibraltar is the main thing that's going to stop them from trading outside the med, and if Spain controls one side of the straits and is an enemy of the Lascarids I don't see the Lascarids straight up crusading against the Moroccans to take control of the African side and allowing them to have some stake over the Atlantic trade and to explore Africa and stuff.

All in all I could see Syracuse controlling the African slave trade if they connect to the Arab slave trade as an alternate source of slaves, especially if they keep the Portuguese away from Mozambique.

If you want to keep Western Anatolia and make it profitable against raids, taking Central Anatolia is a necessity due to the relative lack of defensive terrain in Western Anatolia.Taking Central Anatolia allows you to position your border along the highly defensible Taurus mountains and the Armenian highlands.

 

[pls don't ban me]

@Lascaris
i just realized that we are nearing the climax of the Genoese-Venetian wars. OTL wad the Chioggia war ( 1378-81) which ended with no true winner and the two republic kinda coexisting in the end.
But if the Sicilian Despotate and the Genoese are allied... it seriously changes the balance

 

[DracoLazarus]

@Lascaris
i just realized that we are nearing the climax of the Genoese-Venetian wars. OTL wad the Chioggia war ( 1378-81) which ended with no true winner and the two republic kinda coexisting in the end.
But if the Sicilian Despotate and the Genoese are allied... it seriously changes the balance

You know how Genoa wound up getting French and Spanish governors at times ?
I was wondering if a Genoa battered on land might not wind up eventually having a "permanent ambassador" of the Lascarids play an equivalent role while keeping the forms of the Genoese republic.

 

[Project98]

You know how Genoa wound up getting French and Spanish governors at times ?
I was wondering if a Genoa battered on land might not wind up eventually having a "permanent ambassador" of the Lascarids play an equivalent role while keeping the forms of the Genoese republic.

They are too far away with their focus of attention on the eastern Mediterranean plus the Genoese were not really basic puppets , they were more simbiontic in regard of entire industries for example banking , navy and artigianal production.
So considering that the despotate internal politics is practically a early form of protectionism I don't see it.
Probably the Ragusa republic is more apt .

 

[pls don't ban me]

You know how Genoa wound up getting French and Spanish governors at times ?
I was wondering if a Genoa battered on land might not wind up eventually having a "permanent ambassador" of the Lascarids play an equivalent role while keeping the forms of the Genoese republic.

yes. until Andrea Doria ( or TTL persona if there will be ) shows up to fix everything.
While Venice was centralized, Genoa was more like Wall Street being tasked with also leading a nation. everyone will focus their interests first. The Doria branches that lived in Sardinia in OTL did not hesitate to plead allegiance to the aragonese in order to keep their lands once it became obvious who was going to rule Sardinia.

 

[Nuraghe]

yes. until Andrea Doria ( or TTL persona if there will be ) shows up to fix everything.
While Venice was centralized, Genoa was more like Wall Street being tasked with also leading a nation. everyone will focus their interests first. The Doria branches that lived in Sardinia in OTL did not hesitate to plead allegiance to the aragonese in order to keep their lands once it became obvious who was going to rule Sardinia.

I agree with what has been said, but I want to point out that the branches of the Doria family in Sardinia ( to be precise in the former Judicate of Torres, with important territories in Castelsardo, Valledoria and surrounding areas ) were forced to pay homage to the Aragonese, because otherwise, they would not only have lost their possessions, but also potentially their lives, given that they were possible local candidates for the royal title in opposition to the monarchs of Aragon, due to their kinship ties with Eleanora of Arborea and the old ruling family in Torres ( today's Porto Torres, the second main port of the island at the time after Cagliari ) in the case of the Doria - De Serra Bas branch

 

[Alkmaion]

Hm, that could have gone easier. The Laskarids should have demanded just the dukedum of Achaea released from the fealty to Neapolis and recognized as independent dukes by Louis. That would have been easier to swallow for him. It is also the one position, from a feudal POV, the Laskarids got without any rigt of inheritance or old claim.

Sidenote: I find the idea of annexing Macedonia not very well-thought. It is overextending the laskarid frontiers. Let the Serbs and the ERE fight for it. At the moment Epirus is a much more important target, securing the coast and southern Hellas.

 

[pls don't ban me]

Hm, that could have gone easier. The Laskarids should have demanded just the dukedum of Achaea released from the fealty to Neapolis and recognized as independent dukes by Louis. That would have been easier to swallow for him. It is also the one position, from a feudal POV, the Laskarids got without any rigt of inheritance or old claim.

Sidenote: I find the idea of annexing Macedonia not very well-thought. It is overextending the laskarid frontiers. Let the Serbs and the ERE fight for it. At the moment Epirus is a much more important target, securing the coast and southern Hellas.

i agree.
kick the ottomans out of gallipoli but nothing more.