During WWI, in the Eastern front, the Germans launched the Gorlice–Tarnów Offensive in 1915 that resulted in an event known as the "Great Retreat" where the Russians fled Poland to establish a better defense around west Belarus and Ukraine. But what if they failed to create a defensive line in OTL and the Germans end up capturing the Baltics, Belarus, and Ukraine similarly in the Operation Barbarossa? With the loss of these lands, the Central Powers are now closer to cities like Petrograd and Moscow where they have a good potential to even capture them as well. What is the result? How would the Germans and the Austrians face the conditions of being in an area completely far away from their home with a lack of infrastructure and cold weather? What would the Russians' response be?
The Central Powers end up deeper in Russia
- Thread starter Shadow1080
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Max Sinister
Banned
Given how the CPs now have the Ukrainian grain, iron ore and coal, the Tsar is pretty effed.
There might be a revival in Russian nationalism if CP forces decided to advance into the cities of Petrograd and Moscow which will definitely be interesting - earlier Stalingrad-esque battles?
FillyofDelphi
Banned
No need; if they don't surrender the Germans will have no quelms about just setting up the heavy artillery and bombarding the city into rubble.
You're probably right but what effects do you think this'll have on Russia?
FillyofDelphi
Banned
It further destablizes/decenteralizes the state in the long run as there's no strong industrial-political base from which any Russian regeime can try to impose its authority over the countryside.
History Learner
Banned
I'm going to be honest and state it is impossible for the Germans, given the realities of logistics and motorization at that time, from occupying all of that in a single campaign season.
As I see it, if the Germans DID somehow pull that off, then Russia has two options, she can throw in the towel, or she can keep screaming at France and England to DO SOMETHING, resulting in hundreds of thousands of young men being thrown to their deaths on the Western front for absolutely no gain whatever.
Don't you mean rather "bold" than "honest" ?
As a first shot :
- Falkenhayn is overruled, H-L get their wished for "priority" for the east, with the western front going into more of the defense mode and no "meat-grinder"-at-Verdun-attacks
- more troops for the east
- "preliminary"/"preparing"/"probing" and rather limited attacks in the winter (Nov./Dec.) maybe/likely towards Riga and possibly Rowno on the southern front. Riga very likely to be taken (kind of 2nd winter-masurian), Rowno possible - with german support of AH-forces, at least Dubno likely
Even IOTL they struggled to get their troops together - in time. IOTL it was intended to start in early May (or even earlier ? Don't have my sources at hands atm.) ... and started early June.
So ... ITTL
- April/may the BIG offense in the east starts :
- North towards Lake Peipus (general direction)
- South towards Shitomir/Vinnitza (general direction
- they won't "encircle" larger groups of russian troops but most liekly will "grind down more russian losses than receiveing losses themself, given the OTL-performeance of german troops against russian troop in the moving war.
- however, they will in any case be - once more as in Poland 1914 and 1915 - the "first" to start with tzheir operations, thereby greatly disturbing any build-up for an ITTL-"Brussilow", making it not happen at all
- that in turn would also most likely butterfly the rumanian entrance on the Entente-side away ... btw.
Dorpat in the north
Minsk or even the Beresina in the midth
and south of the Pripjet around/at Shitomir -Vinnitza - Mogilev
All these distances are well comparable to what they managed in the 5 month of offense in 1915 IOTL.
So, crys for "logistics, logistics" are rather moot ITTL ... this is still horse-age warfare and no Panzer-Divisions WW2.
Another "Winter-Battle" and the CP forces are at Narva and possibly Kiev ... not to forget the possiblility ITTL of rumanians trying to reach the Dnjestr and maybe even Odessa.
Thast might now be an ... interesting Christmas at St-Petersburg and Moscow
Meanwhile the western Entente runs one offense after the next for the "relief" of russia only to be ... what also happened to them IOTL :
being slaughtered in and before the trenches without much of an impact (see @Alanith post above)
FillyofDelphi
Banned
Well, remember that iotl the CP managed their leap forward to the deep gains that lead to BL due to the fact the Russian army was more or less willingly dissolving in front of them as they'd been told to demobalize. Perhaps a failed coup attempt triggers masd instiutional and communication disruption?
Hmm, I'm talking not of the 'leap forward' of 1917, but of 1915 as the model for ITTL 1916.
And in my proposal the bigger part of the Ukraine is still under (nominal ?) russian rule compared to IOTL 1918 pre-BL.
No 1st and/or at least no 2nd battle of Ypres, no 1st battle of Champagne
instead successful Battle of Vistula and Lódz´ at least, more successfull 1st battle of the masurian lakes
... and this would even be before 'Gorlice-Tarnow', that ITTL might start froma much better position with stronger forces against weaker russian forces ...
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BlondieBC
Banned
Due to logistics and how the Germans did more of a bite and hold type attack, you can only get a line a couple hundred miles farther east. The easiest POD is for the Anglo-French attacks of 1915 to be ineffectual for some reason, then the 330 battalions will not transfer east. The land you ask for would take two campaign seasons. If the Anglo-French are less competent in the west and it looks like Russia can be knock out in 1916, then the attack may be in the east in 1916 and get more of what you ask for.
Since the CP generally let the logistics catch up with pauses, the supplies over the winter will be fine. The German army in WW1 had good quality staff officers. In WW2, these staff officers were promoted to flag officers, so the quality of the regimental and brigade staff officers is not very good.
Now the impacts. Generally speaking the best farm lands are to the western/southern part of Russia. Russia was burning buildings as it retreated, burning crops and evacuating civilians. We have made food issues much worse for the Russians in 1916 and a little better for the CP. Russian troop losses are much worse than OTL in 1915.