Stupid Luck and Happenstance.

[ejpsan]

I believe that the main problem that Germany has right now is transport vehicles, with overseas investments in South America and Australia, Germany has access to beef,tallow,leather,wool and grain supplies.

Germany has a strong industrial base but it cannot make everything it needs or wants,they have to trade trucks for APCs or tanks.
Transport planes for fighters or bombers.

Germany has to go and buy them from other countries and its going to be a sellers market.

From the U.S. Germany can buy trucks from Ford and GM, and DC-3s from Douglas Aircraft.

In an earlier post I wrote that the U.S. may adopt a "Cash and Carry" policy that would prevent financial institutions from making any large loans to belligerent nations.
There also maybe a problem with shipping items to Germany as there will be the expense of insuring ships going into a war zone.

Germany can ship to either La Harve or Antwerp but the French and Belgians are going to have their hands out.

That is why Germany is going to have to sell bonds.
They may sell the war as an anti-communist "crusade".

What would be ironic that if ITTL Charles A. Lindbergh is a Pro-German, anti-communist interventionist.

 

[NHBL]

I don't think that there will be a lot of attacks on German shipping; it's just too hard for the USSR to get a lot of raiding ships out there.

 

[ejpsan]

I don't think that there will be a lot of attacks on German shipping; it's just too hard for the USSR to get a lot of raiding ships out there.

It's not so much as actual attacks, but the threat of attacks that will drive up the costs of shipping insurance.

 

[Gudestein]

Just out of curiosity, the German performance in this war has been much below OTL. Understandable in the beginning, but then less so. The USSR in effect starting a war while just Falling back and avoiding larger conflict also seems very strange.
So, I guess the Russian's gambled that there would be no immediate consequence of the assasination of a symbolic figurehead? But had undergone some mobilization just in case.
However, howcome the Russians suddenly learned to avoid the German armored spearheads and fall back? I can only guess it must be the Spanish campaign, but howcome they learned this much from a foreign parenthesis of a war, when it took Barbaross to learn it IOTL.Is tukhachevsky still alive?

 

[Sir Omega]

I believe that the main problem that Germany has right now is transport vehicles, with overseas investments in South America and Australia, Germany has access to beef,tallow,leather,wool and grain supplies.

Germany has a strong industrial base but it cannot make everything it needs or wants,they have to trade trucks for APCs or tanks.
Transport planes for fighters or bombers.

Germany has to go and buy them from other countries and its going to be a sellers market.

From the U.S. Germany can buy trucks from Ford and GM, and DC-3s from Douglas Aircraft.

In an earlier post I wrote that the U.S. may adopt a "Cash and Carry" policy that would prevent financial institutions from making any large loans to belligerent nations.
There also maybe a problem with shipping items to Germany as there will be the expense of insuring ships going into a war zone.

Germany can ship to either La Harve or Antwerp but the French and Belgians are going to have their hands out.

That is why Germany is going to have to sell bonds.
They may sell the war as an anti-communist "crusade".

What would be ironic that if ITTL Charles A. Lindbergh is a Pro-German, anti-communist interventionist.

Why not buy from Europe? Britain (at least until it gets into a war itself) still has an outstanding industrial capacity, the French industry could use the business, even Czechoslovakia had an impressive arms and vehicle industry.

 

[ShortsBelfast]

And the Dutch have a decent aircraft industry and the Belgians a good armaments industry (and were getting into aviation when they were invaded OTL though I am not clear how decent a fighter the Renard would have been). And Italy had a reasonable aircraft and motor industry.

 

[The Machine]

Just out of curiosity, the German performance in this war has been much below OTL. Understandable in the beginning, but then less so. The USSR in effect starting a war while just Falling back and avoiding larger conflict also seems very strange.
So, I guess the Russian's gambled that there would be no immediate consequence of the assasination of a symbolic figurehead? But had undergone some mobilization just in case.
However, howcome the Russians suddenly learned to avoid the German armored spearheads and fall back? I can only guess it must be the Spanish campaign, but howcome they learned this much from a foreign parenthesis of a war, when it took Barbaross to learn it IOTL.Is tukhachevsky still alive?

This was my question, as well. I have yet to see anything that would indicate either the Germans not developing blitzkrieg, or the Soviets improving militarily. If anything, the Germans should be doing better than OTL, since they are more heavily mechanized and better armed, while doing without all the Nazi/Hitler baggage.

 

[NHBL]

This was my question, as well. I have yet to see anything that would indicate either the Germans not developing blitzkrieg, or the Soviets improving militarily. If anything, the Germans should be doing better than OTL, since they are more heavily mechanized and better armed, while doing without all the Nazi/Hitler baggage.

Winning a war does tend to leave the old guard in charge for longer, reducing the demand for radical new tactics and strategy. Human nature is to prepare to fight the last war with the new equipment. A catastrophic defeat, on the other had, results in more innovation. I see developing blitzkreig as possible but not certain.

 

[Theoretical_TJ]

Winning a war does tend to leave the old guard in charge for longer, reducing the demand for radical new tactics and strategy. Human nature is to prepare to fight the last war with the new equipment. A catastrophic defeat, on the other had, results in more innovation. I see developing blitzkreig as possible but not certain.

Notice that Wovogle is the prophet people only now will hear re: warfare in vast expanses On the more positive side, at least in the planning aspects, there's a recognition of General Winter.

 

[Sir Omega]

This was my question, as well. I have yet to see anything that would indicate either the Germans not developing blitzkrieg, or the Soviets improving militarily. If anything, the Germans should be doing better than OTL, since they are more heavily mechanized and better armed, while doing without all the Nazi/Hitler baggage.

The onslaught from the beginning of Barbarossa had basically caught the Soviets with their pants down and presenting . That can't be replicated ITTL. Also, it seems to me that the Wehrmacht leadership is in a bit of disarray, since the Soviets aren't cooperating with the OKH battle plan, and the Young Turks of the Wehrmacht leadership are still finding their feet (well as much as people as von Wolvogle, who is in his 80s, I guess? can be referred to as young in any situation). And they haven't had the campaigns in Poland, the Low Countries and France to refine their tactics. Still, the Russian push will run out of steam in a month or two at the most, and by spring the situation will be different (at least that's my take on the situation).
By the way, @Peabody-Martini , are H.Guderian, H.Balck, G.Heinrici, W.Model, G.von Rundstedt and other top German generals available to TTL Germany?

 

[LordVorKon]

Chapter Two Hundred Forty-Four
The situation in the Balkans was a bit better but the offensive against Leningrad had been suspended.

What's going on in the Balkans? Maybe you meant Baltics?

 

[ejpsan]

And the Dutch have a decent aircraft industry and the Belgians a good armaments industry (and were getting into aviation when they were invaded OTL though I am not clear how decent a fighter the Renard would have been). And Italy had a reasonable aircraft and motor industry.

I was using the U.S. as an example, it's still going to be a sellers market out there with Germany depleting it gold and foreign currency reserves at a fast rate.

 

[NHBL]

I would say that both sides should stick very close to the cruiser rules when it comes to dealing with neutral shipping; neither Britain or the USA are likely to be very forgiving. The USA would be very wise to augment its defenses in the Pacific about now...

On another note, how deep is Vladivostok harbor? Did the British have to modify their torpedoes in a way that will give Japan ideas?

 

[ShortsBelfast]

I was using the U.S. as an example, it's still going to be a sellers market out there with Germany depleting it gold and foreign currency reserves at a fast rate.

Italy and France need a lot of German coal and will buy German manufactures. TTL Germany is not gaining foreign gold reserves at the same level as OTL it is true but has (fairly) normal uninterrupted trade to the West and South and (if OTL is anything to go by) the complete sympathy of the business elites. So, while the war will be a drain, probably less of a drain than OTL. And they won't be paying ransom prices either, they can buy from anyone other than the USSR.

 

[FBKampfer]

Blitzkrieg was an accident resulting from the collapse of Allied defenses in the Ardennes during Fall Gelb. For all its speed, the Polish Campaign was fairly conventional, and it was assumed France would be fought in a similar manner.

Fall Gelb was originally intended more to outflank the BEF and major French formations in the North, rather than the mad dash to the sea that it turned into. There was a lot of trepidation in OKH and OKW about concentration of the Panzerkorps, much less letting them charge out ahead of the main force. Which is not to say it didn't have its proponents. But blitzkrieg as an operational strategy and method of thinking was a result of accidental blitzkrieg in the field. Which never happened ITTL.

The surprising part is that the Soviets held regardless of all added advantages they had. Germany is fielding Tigers and Panthers in 1941, and would appear to be much more mechanized than IOTL, and Soviet command structure, communications, organization, and even field armies were complete garbage in 1941. They lost an entire army group as an organized fighting unit inside of two weeks.

 

[Sir Omega]

Germany is fielding Tigers and Panthers in 1941,

I think (unless @Peabody-Martini tells otherwise, of course) that TTL Tigers are closer to this:

Pz.Kpfw. IV Ausf. H

Than of this:

Pz.Kpfw. Tiger Ausf. H

Addendum:

That's because by the time it were designed, they haven't met the heavily armored Soviet KVs and British Matildas who needed the heavy armor - powerful cannon combination that the Tiger was.

Also, they haven't met the iconically T 34 with its innovative sloped armour, from which the Panther drew inspiration. Since the T 34 was designed as a direct consequence of the tank clashes between the Soviets and the Japanese in '38 and '39, it may be possible that the T 34 has been butterflied away (at least for the time being).

 

[The Machine]

Blitzkrieg was an accident resulting from the collapse of Allied defenses in the Ardennes during Fall Gelb. For all its speed, the Polish Campaign was fairly conventional, and it was assumed France would be fought in a similar manner.

Fall Gelb was originally intended more to outflank the BEF and major French formations in the North, rather than the mad dash to the sea that it turned into. There was a lot of trepidation in OKH and OKW about concentration of the Panzerkorps, much less letting them charge out ahead of the main force. Which is not to say it didn't have its proponents. But blitzkrieg as an operational strategy and method of thinking was a result of accidental blitzkrieg in the field. Which never happened ITTL.

The surprising part is that the Soviets held regardless of all added advantages they had. Germany is fielding Tigers and Panthers in 1941, and would appear to be much more mechanized than IOTL, and Soviet command structure, communications, organization, and even field armies were complete garbage in 1941. They lost an entire army group as an organized fighting unit inside of two weeks.

I agree with your third paragraph, although I disagree that blitzkrieg was an accident. I would argue it wasn't really a "doctrine" at all, just a descriptive term about what happened when Rommel and Guderian ran wild with combined arms warfare.

Rommel had already developed his ideas about maneuver warfare by the end of WWI, and Guderian formulated his ideas during wargames in the 20s at Kummersdorf. The latter may have been butterflied, but I don't see why it should have been.

The German officers on the WWII Eastern Front (or anywhere else for that matter) didn't even use anything called blitzkrieg. They used the tried and true methods of pincer movements/double envelopments, slashing attacks, penetration at the schwerpunkt, etc, which were hardly new concepts.

The real game changer was the vastly improved battlefield communications, which allowed for the concentration of supporting firepower like never before, as well as details of what the troops are doing, where there are breakthroughs or resistance, etc. The "new" combined arms doctrine centered on armor, supported by infantry, artillery & CAS, engineers, logistics, etc. is already in evidence ITTL with the panzer divisions.

 

[FBKampfer]

I think (unless @Peabody-Martini tells otherwise, of course) that TTL Tigers are closer to this:

Pz.Kpfw. IV Ausf. H

Than of this:

Pz.Kpfw. Tiger Ausf. H

Unless I'm misremembering, he's stated the Panzer IV's carry 88's. And the Panzer II's carried a 50mm and were comparable to a late Panzer III L.

It seems German tanks ITTL skipped about two iterations.

 

[Sir Omega]

Unless I'm misremembering, he's stated the Panzer IV's carry 88's. And the Panzer II's carried a 50mm and were comparable to a late Panzer III L.

It seems German tanks ITTL skipped about two iterations.

It's completely possible that I've forgotten that, but like I added to my post above, the Panzers haven't met anything by that point that required a beast like the 8,8 mm gun, which came into being, as you probably know, by adapting the original AA gun to a large enough tank. IOTL, the quick-firing 50mm was considered enough to penetrate anything it faced (and it did, until they unexpectedly ran into the Matildas and KVs). Even with the somewhat friendly relations between Tommy and Fritz, I don't see them, not even considering Ivan, comparing notes on tank design, armour thickness, and the penetration power needed to combat that armour.
Of course, this is just me giving my opinion, so the facts ITTL may very well differ.

 

[mkemp]

By the way, is there any advantage of a scorched-earth defense against an opponent with a modern and operational supply line? AFAIK it would be useful against an opponent who is supplying itself largely by foraging but without the foraging it seems to be an exercise in general bloody-mindedness.