Spain sells Philippines to Japan in 1896 - impacts on World War II(and 20th century)

[thaddeus]

there are so many moving parts here, it does seem less likely that Japan would ally themselves with Nazi Germany as they are in a somewhat better position (in their own view) and historically they were reluctant allies already (good book titled in fact Reluctant Allies dealing with their naval cooperation or lack thereof.)

the interwar von Seeckt plan was for Germany to cooperate with China and the USSR, albeit not formally ally with them?

 

[Napoleone the Kiwi]

there are so many moving parts here, it does seem less likely that Japan would ally themselves with Nazi Germany as they are in a somewhat better position (in their own view) and historically they were reluctant allies already (good book titled in fact Reluctant Allies dealing with their naval cooperation or lack thereof.)

the interwar von Seeckt plan was for Germany to cooperate with China and the USSR, albeit not formally ally with them?

Molotov Ribbentrop is a good as the Nazis were going to get with the Soviets. The goal of the Nazi state was eastward expansion and depopulation of as much of the Soviet Union as possible. China might be an ally, but won’t be of much use. Especially if the Japanese get expansion happy on the mainland.

 

[Intermittent_Coherence]

Unlikely. That would be a fundmental misunderstanding of protectionism and imperialism. Basing the factories in Japan would bring work to the Japanese population, while providing a market for Japanese goods in the Phillipines, while creating a niche for shipwrights and Japanese maritime trade in the ships coming from the Phillipines with the raw resources to the ships going to the Phillipines with the Japanese made products.

While true this is also a European model. Formulated as the Europeans built their empires. I would say it's not guaranteed that the Japanese would follow the model 100 percent. Somewhere along the way some enterprising individuals will realise it's cheaper to hire Filipinos than Japanese. That's all it's gonna take to start a snowball.

Especially if the Japanese get expansion happy on the mainland.

They might at least want Korea as a foothold. This would mean the invasion of Manchuria would still be on the cards.

 

[Fratsup]

Actually holding the Philippines would give the Japanese a massive edge in influencing southern China since any major trade will have to go across their waters to reach Canton and such. I can see Japan effectively taking over large parts of the coast and setting up their own puppet governments in the region.

 

[paulpskordilis]

FDR was trying to go to war in Europe, he just couldn't get a public or Congress that thought they were hoodwinked in 1917, to go for it. Roosevelt was part of the Woodrow Wilson administration. As Assistant Secretary of the Navy he was involved in arms shipments to the allies from the start of the war.

First, neither public nor Congress would have wanted the US to go to war over a Japanese attack on British and Dutch colonies in Asia. Secondly, why expect Japan to declare war over anything Hitler does in Europe? They even declined to take part in Operation Barbarossa.

As I often like to say: if you are a mouse and there is a sleeping lion between yourself and the cheese, do you tiptoe around the lion and grab the cheese or do you kick him in the groin then grab the cheese?

What many people are unaware of is that Admiral Nagano wanted to ignore America entirely and make war solely with the British and Dutch. Unfortunately for the Japanese, nobody listened to him.

Without the Philippines, Wake, Guam etc., the USN is most unlikely to have the theoretical, let alone actual ability to counter-attack a Japanese attack on European colonies in Asia. It would have been like FDR threatening to declare war over the German conquest of Scandinavia(not that just a threat would have been politically impossible anyway). The GOP would have jumped on this chance to plaster FDR with cries of "warmonger!"

Do the Philippines rebel against the Japanese? Because if they do, Japan is going to have far more experience with their military against the Russians at the cost of a weaker economy from the expenses of putting down a major revolt. Another thing to remember is that the population of the islands is less than half of that of Korea, so it will be much easier to digest from a demographics standpoint (<17% of Japan versus <40% for Korea), but also has a much fiercer opponent with the Catholic church being around. I foresee that being a huge thorn in the Japanese side. A lot depends on if the Japanese follow the Korea route for the Philippines or the Taiwan route, the latter might make it integrated in the long term.

I don't even think there will be a Pacific war in TTL. The Brits and the Dutch might be far more reluctant to oppose Japan if America isn't actively involved in the region. There's a good chance that the embargoes never occur, and that's assuming Japan even invades China in the first place.

With obviously no prospect of American entry into the war and the British continuing to close the Burma Road, could we see the Second Sino-Japanese War ending in a negotiated peace sometime in 1937-1941?

 

[paulpskordilis]

Molotov Ribbentrop is a good as the Nazis were going to get with the Soviets. The goal of the Nazi state was eastward expansion and depopulation of as much of the Soviet Union as possible. China might be an ally, but won’t be of much use. Especially if the Japanese get expansion happy on the mainland.

If Poland had accepted Lenin's late 1919 peace offer of 1772 borders or had Pilsudski got his way and demanded Minsk, the Molotov-Ribbentrop demarcation line would have been on Curzon Line B.

Actually holding the Philippines would give the Japanese a massive edge in influencing southern China since any major trade will have to go across their waters to reach Canton and such. I can see Japan effectively taking over large parts of the coast and setting up their own puppet governments in the region.

With the ability of the US to enforce the Open Door Policy drastically reduced, there would have been more European territorial concessions in China. We could see Hainan being directly ruled by the Japanese, as well as Japanese-backed warlords fighting against the Nationalists in Southern China.

 

[Fratsup]

Actually a major change might be the further growth between Poland and Japan. Considering that the Poles and Japanese already worked together this Japan might fully support the Poles to eventually create their own nation. This might actually extend Japanese influence into eastern Europe by the way of Poland and even Ukraine and the Baltic depending on how well this alliance does against Russia and any of their successor states.

Actually if WW1 occurs and Russia falls apart it would not surprise me if Japan also controls most of Siberia as well by the way of puppet states. We might even see an eventual domination of Russia by Poland and its allies.

 

[Napoleone the Kiwi]

Actually a major change might be the further growth between Poland and Japan. Considering that the Poles and Japanese already worked together this Japan might fully support the Poles to eventually create their own nation. This might actually extend Japanese influence into eastern Europe by the way of Poland and even Ukraine and the Baltic depending on how well this alliance does against Russia and any of their successor states.

Actually if WW1 occurs and Russia falls apart it would not surprise me if Japan also controls most of Siberia as well by the way of puppet states. We might even see an eventual domination of Russia by Poland and its allies.

That’s rather unlikely considering the British and France want a stable international order, and the Americans want their self-determination (as much as they can guarantee, anyway.) Poland does not have the capacity to occupy much of Russia, the miracle at the Vistula being a miracle for that reason.

In much the same way, Japan will have hard limits on their expansion based on the prevailing international order. If WW1 happens the same way just with a beefed up Japan, they may wrangle all of Sakhalin and get their racial equality clause which will defang militarism quite severely.

An occupation of Siberia would be something the West wouldn’t tolerate, Japan would gain too much ground in this instance.

 

[YusaEmi]

If a conflict similar to WW1 occurs I can see Japan supporting revolutionaries across the European Asian colonies since those places did experience their own revolts at the time but were mostly crushed. With Japan being stronger I can see Japan and Britain, France, and the Dutch going to war shortly after WW1 and Japan winning due to how exhausted the European nations were at that time.

Isn't this basically what happened in Southern Victory? Due to Japan possessing the Philippines since 1898 they were able to bully the Dutch into giving up the Netherlands in 1920?

 

[Fratsup]

Admittedly I was talking mostly on keeping Ukraine independent.

As for the other matters if the Russians suffer a civil war the other powers might not have much of an option considering they will be dealing with the massive exhaustion of the war. If anything I can see such a scenario leading to a break between Japan and the west since at that point Germany would be gone and Russia would either be red or weakened. Considering how much the US wanted to expand into the Pacific its likely Japan and the US were going to become bitter rivals.

 

[thaddeus]

there are so many moving parts here, it does seem less likely that Japan would ally themselves with Nazi Germany as they are in a somewhat better position (in their own view) and historically they were reluctant allies already (good book titled in fact Reluctant Allies dealing with their naval cooperation or lack thereof.)

the interwar von Seeckt plan was for Germany to cooperate with China and the USSR, albeit not formally ally with them?

Molotov Ribbentrop is a good as the Nazis were going to get with the Soviets. The goal of the Nazi state was eastward expansion and depopulation of as much of the Soviet Union as possible. China might be an ally, but won’t be of much use. Especially if the Japanese get expansion happy on the mainland.

my point was Japan would be less likely to ally with Germany (both sides get a vote), that leaves the door open for continued (lucrative) trade between Germany-China. such trade is itself a rationale for continued cooperation with the USSR, so they can reach China during wartime.

there was cooperation between Germany and the USSR for years prior to the Nazis. my speculation or observation is that after a few years of trying to recruit Poland into some type of alliance against the Soviets, and at a time when they (Nazi regime) were preparing territorial grabs, it would have been plausible to renew trade (at least) with the USSR. recall France was attempting to reach an agreement with the Soviets around 1935-36 also.

 

[Fratsup]

Again why are you assuming Nazi Germany would still happen? This assumes Germany loses WW1 since we have about a decade between the POD and or WW1 which anything can happen at that point.

 

[Hayatgheibi]

Again why are you assuming Nazi Germany would still happen? This assumes Germany loses WW1 since we have about a decade between the POD and or WW1 which anything can happen at that point.

How would the Nazis be butterflied away?

 

[Fratsup]

How would the Nazis be butterflied away?

For starters this assumes that WW1 will be the exact same which might not happen. For all we know the Americans might not join due to the Japanese being stronger and not wanting to strengthen the Japanese-British alliance. Maybe the Russians and French do better and manage to actually defeat the Germans before they fall apart themselves. Maybe the Germans win WW1 and go on to dominate Europe.

Really there are a lot of possibilities and that is just withing the time frame of the POD and 1914.

 

[Nivek]

What will be of Cuba and Puerto Rico ittl

 

[Hayatgheibi]

What will be of Cuba and Puerto Rico ittl

I don’t see why the Spanish-American War wouldn’t happen

 

[Fratsup]

There might be some differences in the sense that Spain might be stronger than OTL since they will have a lot more money to work with along with all of the military units from the Philippines being moved into Cuba. Actually considering how the businesses and McKinley were against the war, the Spanish-American War might not actually happen in this TL.

 

[youraveragekomodo]

I don’t see why the Spanish-American War wouldn’t happen

There might be some differences in the sense that Spain might be stronger than OTL since they will have a lot more money to work with along with all of the military units from the Philippines being moved into Cuba. Actually considering how the businesses and McKinley were against the war, the Spanish-American War might not actually happen in this TL.

Maybe it would still happen, but with the Spanish fully focusing on Cuba, the Americans could lose in this war.

 

[prester.john208]

Maybe it would still happen, but with the Spanish fully focusing on Cuba, the Americans could lose in this war.

Keeping the Hearst and Pulitzer reporters out of Cuba would help keep the US out of invading Cuba.

A 1898 CARTOON OF NEWSPAPER PUBLISHERS JOSEPH PULITZER AND WILLIAM RANDOLPH HEARST DRESSED AS THE 'YELLOW KID,' A POPULAR CARTOON CHARACTER OF THE DAY, EACH PUSHING AGAINST OPPOSITE SIDES OF A PILLAR OF WOODEN BLOCKS THAT SPELLS WAR. THIS IS A SATIRE OF THE PULITZER AND HEARST NEWSPAPERS' ROLE IN DRUMMING UP U.S. PUBLIC OPINION TO GO TO WAR WITH SPAIN.

 

[Intermittent_Coherence]

An occupation of Siberia would be something the West wouldn’t tolerate, Japan would gain too much ground in this instance.

The entirety of Siberia would probably be a stretch, but more modest gains, say the entire North Pacific coast line might be considered out of sight/out of mind for Europe.

Considering how much the US wanted to expand into the Pacific its likely Japan and the US were going to become bitter rivals.

They're likely to split it with the western portion under Japan's control, while the east would remain American controlled.