Solar Dreams: a history of solar energy (1878 - 2025)

Pictures are really helpful, I had a different mental image on how it was assembled so this cleared up a lot.
 
18: Accretion
February 1889
Syracuse, Sicily


Klaus kissed his wife as he rose from the bed. She smiled, and in an unconscious act reached for him, to stay together a few more minutes. But he had to reject her, had to switch his mind back to the scholar and researcher, not the loving husband. One by one, the feelings he usually felt were replaced by calculations and methods. It was early in the morning when he began to compile all the relevant data, and he wouldn't stop until noon, having refilled his dip pen a hundred times at the moment he felt he had parsed it all. He knew it was encouraging, as the profits of his associates had exploded since the adoption of solar-powered incandescent lighting in the mines. Only in winter did production return to normal levels, as the concentrators didn't provide enough heat for the Stirling generators to produce measurable power. And so it was in winter when he had time to think in the long term, to evaluate new ideas and study the myriad of factors that would affect the production of this new form of energy. And to communicate with the larger world.

To,
The President of Deutsche Physikalische Gesellschaft,
Doctor Hermann Knoblauch

Subject: Developments in Solar Energy Production

Doctor,

Accompanying this letter is the compiled data on the latest developments in generation of energy via concentrated solar power. In brief, solar energy appears to be an economically viable form of producing power for industrial and domestic purposes, provided the climate is suitable. Experience providing power for a local mining operation has proved profitable enough (balance sheets and cash flow statements are included), with the caveat that the scale of the project wasn't large enough to observe diminishing returns or economies of scale. Technical issues still require attention, but I am of the opinion that these issues are secondary to the study of the economic viability of these systems. A rough estimate suggest that solar energy is a viable alternative to coal as far north as Liguria, and would out-compete south of Tripoli.

Even with the obvious limitation of intermittency, the power that can be extracted from Solar Concentrators could greatly help the efforts of German colonies in warm climates, and make currently underused or unwanted places of the globe profitable.

Thus, I humbly request to expand operations in Syracuse, and to assemble a team of technicians and economists that can effectively study the behaviour of an industrial scale solar power plant.

Yours'

Klauss Hess,
Doctor in Physics


It was almost midnight by the time he wrote that last word, and plates with crumbs surrounded his desk. How they got there, and where the sun went that day, Klaus had no idea.

Bletchley, England

Morgan Cottrell was furious. It was a cold, studied, pleasant fury he could only feel against a worthy challenger. The kind of emotion he felt in his college days, when he dueled and fought and played against others with the same mind. That the challenger was dead was merely a secondary concern, for the challenge was alive. Three mechanical engineers, a technical illustrator, two mathematicians and a logician, all veterans on the top of their fields... all had trouble understanding the notes left behind by Charles Babbage, thanks in large part due to the man horrendous caligraphy. Only when an anthropologist who specialized in Mesoamerican writing systems joined the team and started deciphering the notes did they begin to make notable progress.

It was maddening. For him, as there was little he could do beyond directing their men and give educated guesses. But also for the team he and Bucknell had assembled. For each step forward deciphering and understanding a system of the thinking machine, there was a chance for a step back. A note that changed the meaning of the previous page, a system that needed to be installed in one particular way, an ambiguous phrase. And yet, the principles of the machine were sound, the subsystems that made all work had a logical basis and weren't the random writings of an eccentric madman.

No, it was the work of a genius, of a mind that saw exploits and shortcuts where others only saw randomness. Cottrell was an arrogant man, but he knew he wasn't a genius. Intelligent, yes. Extremely so, if his success was any indication, but he knew his mind was mundane. He could be successful in any field if he committed to it, but he would never revolutionize it.

But there were advantages to mundane intelligence. When the team finally understood the operating principles of the Analytical Engine, he spent an entire day getting briefed on the systems involved. He asked questions, made some guesses (most of which were shot down as unfeasible) and, at last, gave an educated opinion: to focus one day a week to research the notes, and the other four to study, replicate, and - if possible - upgrade the data retention subsystem, which was soon dubbed "the archive". It only made sense to start by one of the extremes of a machine that stored and processed data, instead of trying to understand the totality of it at once.

Progress would be slow, but certain.

Santiago, Chile

Augustin Mouchot knew knew or a fact that he could stop working at any moment and enjoy a comfortable life. The business he and his Chilean partners had founded was booming. Chile was a small market, but the success of the water heater was enough to fund the company for the foreseeable future. Soon, operations in Europe would begin and cooling devices would hit the market.

He looked at his room, one of the most luxurious in the best hotel in Santiago, and yet a trivial expenditure now. He looked and understood that this was what success looked like. And success that arrived on an idea he originally opposed, which was a lesson he took to heart. How much of his previous failures were due to circumstances, and how many were the result of his own temper? Could he have achieved success earlier if he had been less ambitious?

It didn't matter now. The past couldn't be changed, but he still had twenty or so years to make a mark on the world. To have his ambition, now tempered by wisdom and helpful criticism, fulfilled.

He joined Madame Goyenechea for a morning coffee at the Hotel's café. She wore her usual black mourning dress, but was of a cheerful disposition. To her, the incoming events of the evening were either routine or beneath her notice, and so she talked about them in an almost casual tone. She was accustomed to speaking with politicians and Heads of State. That Mouchot wasn't didn't occur to her until she heard him speak.

- Something is wrong, Docteur?

- I... I don't know if I will be able to stand up and speak to the Congress. I once spoke with Napoleon III, but then my ideas were just a pipe dream and I was begging for funding. Now... now I'll be asking a whole country to take a risky bet.

- Is it a bet, though? I've seen the data: even in Lota, your water heaters can outperform coal burning boilers. Maybe not every day, like in Atacama, but my coal workers have gotten used to warm showers thanks to your solar-powered devices. In the North, where the sun always shines, they will make coal irrelevant. And then... - She pointed towards a lightbulb. The Gran Hotel Ingles was the first of its kind to count with electrical lighting. - ... there's this. Today this hotel uses a generator, but that's not practical for every home. Large scale power plants will be needed in a few years, and power will have to come from somewhere.

- It is the nature of progress, I understand. But you are not in the laboratory, nor do you understand the myriad of problems we must solve at the scales we're working on. The copper mining project is orders of magnitude above what we've currently producing. We're not even aware of the nature of the problems we will face with a device that could produce thousands of Horsepower.

- Is it a problem of funding? I can provide as much funding as needed to see this project through.

- It isn't funding. The Franco-Chilena is doing quite well, and the experts we hired are among the best in France. We can hire more as the need arises, but things still take time. Identifying problems take time, let alone solving them. We're working with things that didn't exist fifteen years ago, taking on a technology that's quite mature.

- Augustin, I am of the mind that your speech this evening will make the 20th Century. The world revolves around coal now, and in twenty years it will revolve around oil. But what we do in Atacama in this coming decade will make the world revolve around the sun.

"What we do in the Atacama Desert will make or break the 20th Century" were the words with which Augustin Mouchot started his speech in front of the Chilean Congress. Ignoring for a second the dramatism, the idea behind Moucho's speech was sound: The Society for the Exploitation of Atacama would be a testbed for large-scale Solar power generation and related technologies. Although a cautious project that contemplated integration with conventional alternatives (inadvertently creating a precedent for the 'Dual-Feed' design ethos that would come to dominate the generation of heat in the 1920s and 1930s), the project was also an ambitious leap for the Franco-Chilena, which had gathered experience manufacturing solar ovens for bakeries and small industrial plants, but didn't know much about melting several tons of metal ore.

As the 1880s were reaching their end, it was becoming increasingly clear that solar power generation was technically feasible. The 1890s would be the decade in which this new technology would need to prove its economical viability.
 
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Bletchley, England

Morgan Cottrell was furious. It was a cold, studied, pleasant fury he could only feel against a worthy challenger. The kind of emotion he felt in his college days, when he dueled and fought and played against others with the same mind. That the challenger was a merely a secondary concern, for the challenge was alive. Three mechanical engineers, a technical illustrator, two mathematicians and a logician, all veterans on the top of their fields... all had trouble understanding the notes left behind by Charles Babbage, thanks in large part due to the man horrendous caligraphy. Only when an anthropologist who specialized in Mesoamerican writing systems joined the team and started deciphering the notes did they begin to make notable progress.

It was maddening. For him, as there was little he could do beyond directing their men and give educated guesses. But also for the team he and Bucknell had assembled. For each step forward deciphering and understanding a system of the thinking machine, there was a chance for a step back. A note that changed the meaning of the previous page, a system that needed to be installed in one particular way, an ambiguous phrase. And yet, the principles of the machine were sound, the subsystems that made all work had a logical basis and weren't the random writings of an eccentric madman.

No, it was the work of a genius, of a mind that saw exploits and shortcuts where others only saw randomness. Cottrell was an arrogant man, but he knew he wasn't a genius. Intelligent, yes. Extremely so, if his success was any indication, but he knew his mind was mundane. He could be successful in any field if he committed to it, but he would never revolutionize it.

But there were advantages to mundane intelligence. When the team finally understood the operating principles of the Analytical Engine, he spent an entire day getting briefed on the systems involved. He asked questions, made some guesses (most of which were shot down as unfeasible) and, at last, gave an educated opinion: to focus one day a week to research the notes, and the other four to study, replicate, and - if possible - upgrade the data retention subsystem, which was soon dubbed "the archive". It only made sense to start by one of the extremes of a machine that stored and processed data, instead of trying to understand the totality of it at once.

Progress would be slow, but certain.
HOLY SHIT?!?!? :eek:

I foresee Nikola Tesla continuing his OTL transistor-esqe experiments in 1905.

Integrated Circuits for WW1 perhaps?
 
Yeah, even today the Analytical Engine is just barely fully understood because Babbage's notes were THAT much of a mess.

Chile becoming the world leader in concentrated solar power? Looking forwards to it. As for the Germans... this is the first time we've seen the implications for the colonies discussed. Could be insteresting, or a harbringer of misery for the natives. German Namibia is a good place for solar power alright... did the Berlin Conference go as OTL?
 
"As the 1880s were reaching their end, it was becoming increasingly clear that solar power generation was technically feasible. The 1890s would be the decade in which this new technology would need to prove its economical viability."

Awesome stuff! This is indeed a changed world!

I am hoping for so much in regards to this tech and its knock on effects- like maybe continuing use and experimentation with electric cars, or maybe electric trains systems much earlier. If Babbage's notes can be deciphered than that could be an even bigger game changer.

Augustin Mouchot and his team deserve multiple awards!
 
HOLY SHIT?!?!? :eek:

I foresee Nikola Tesla continuing his OTL transistor-esqe experiments in 1905.

Integrated Circuits for WW1 perhaps?

Cheap generation of high temperatures will result in more advanced electronics compared to OTL, but without an understanding of the Photoelectric Effect and the structure of the atom, transistors as we know them won't be possible.
The same applies for modern photovoltaic cells (although there are photovoltaics in development ITTL).

Cheap ways to reach boiling point for metals will also have an effect in the ways electronics are developed, even before true transistors appear.

Yeah, even today the Analytical Engine is just barely fully understood because Babbage's notes were THAT much of a mess.

Chile becoming the world leader in concentrated solar power? Looking forwards to it. As for the Germans... this is the first time we've seen the implications for the colonies discussed. Could be insteresting, or a harbringer of misery for the natives. German Namibia is a good place for solar power alright... did the Berlin Conference go as OTL?

Which is why Cottrell reached an expert in something akin to an alien language, arguing that they were probably working with a different writing system at that point.

As for Chile, the situation is complex. The Chilean State lost de facto possession of the nitrate mines in the conquered territories, and won't be able to properly tax British companies in its territories. The main wealth for which Chile fought the War of the Pacific is out of reach, and something needs to be done to compensate for it.

Copper mining, while not very profitable at this point due to low prices, is the most viable alternative. And, as an untapped resource, the Government can create a national industry without expending much political capital. Balmaceda's plan to spend the nitrate wealth to create infrastructure and industrialize the country is dead, and he's pretty much improvising. However, the forces that deposed him in 1891 are also dead.

Off all the actors, it is Isidora Goyenechea the one that realized that Atacama's true wealth is its irradiance, and the almost free energy it provides. She's nudging both the Government and the Franco-Chilena towards large scale Solar projects.

"As the 1880s were reaching their end, it was becoming increasingly clear that solar power generation was technically feasible. The 1890s would be the decade in which this new technology would need to prove its economical viability."

Awesome stuff! This is indeed a changed world!

I am hoping for so much in regards to this tech and its knock on effects- like maybe continuing use and experimentation with electric cars, or maybe electric trains systems much earlier. If Babbage's notes can be deciphered than that could be an even bigger game changer.

Augustin Mouchot and his team deserve multiple awards!

As of 1890, the knock on effects on technology are, primarily, a revived demand for Stirling engines, air liquefaction, and primitive concentrated-light cutters.
Perhaps not the sexiest changes, but they will have an impact in the coming decades.

Anyways, as promised each decade will include stories showing aspects not directly related to solar energy. Next update will be a bit of worldbuilding outside this focus.
 
This is all absolutely wonderful! Can't wait to see more.

I wonder if Mexico is gonna try and imitate Chile, I mean northern Mexico gets plenty of sunlight I reckon
 
This is all absolutely wonderful! Can't wait to see more.

I wonder if Mexico is gonna try and imitate Chile, I mean northern Mexico gets plenty of sunlight I reckon

Pretty much any desert near the tropics will be an ideal place for solar energy. Combined with the "short legs" energy distribution has at this point (since AC transmission is in its early stages, and the power grid won't be a thing for decades), it will probably lead to a very different distribution of industrial hubs in the future.
 
Pretty much any desert near the tropics will be an ideal place for solar energy. Combined with the "short legs" energy distribution has at this point (since AC transmission is in its early stages, and the power grid won't be a thing for decades), it will probably lead to a very different distribution of industrial hubs in the future.
Depends on the industry of course. Who are the biggest electric hogs back then?
 
Pretty much any desert near the tropics will be an ideal place for solar energy. Combined with the "short legs" energy distribution has at this point (since AC transmission is in its early stages, and the power grid won't be a thing for decades), it will probably lead to a very different distribution of industrial hubs in the future.
OTOH, hydropower was the #1 source of electricity at this time and for quite a while afterwards, and that obviously favors wet, rainy areas over sunny ones. Moreover, coal-fired electrical plants were developed rather quickly after the development of electricity, and while it took a while to become common coal has the obvious advantage that it can be (relatively) easily transported compared to water or the sun. Finally, a lot of major industrial areas were, by this point, already fairly developed and established, which gives other advantages in locating more industry there--it's just plain going to be cheaper and easier to build steel-using facilities in the Midwest, close to raw material sources like Pittsburgh and Minnesota than in the South or Southwest, even if power is more available in the latter places, for example.

Overall, then, I would expect this to somewhat negatively impact existing industrial hubs and build up fledgling hubs in some areas that didn't develop IOTL (like southern Italy, as has been hinted, Egypt, or Chile), but not to cause a radical redistribution of industrialization from the poles towards the equator.
 
I am hoping someone hooks old Windmills up as wind turbines as they fall out of favour for making flour. Britain and other windy places could benefit well from them, and if one can hook a windmill up, then a water wheel can also be hooked up for power generation and the UK/Europe had loads of those, even small scale can run quite a few houses.

Worcester had a hydro plant in the 1894.
 
I imagine wind/sand will throw a big problem into maintaining that solar...

It depends on the type of solar collector. Stirling-based devices will have problem in sandy deserts, but direct heat devices are basically a mirror and a pipe, so a regular wash is enough to solve most problems.

Depends on the industry of course. Who are the biggest electric back then?

DC motors and lighting (incandescent and arc lights), if I remember correctly. Motive power was mostly transmitted mechanically, and heat was generated at the source or transmitted via working fluids.

Electricity is less efficient than both methods even to this day, but it is much more simple and practical to transport.

OTOH, hydropower was the #1 source of electricity at this time and for quite a while afterwards, and that obviously favors wet, rainy areas over sunny ones. Moreover, coal-fired electrical plants were developed rather quickly after the development of electricity, and while it took a while to become common coal has the obvious advantage that it can be (relatively) easily transported compared to water or the sun. Finally, a lot of major industrial areas were, by this point, already fairly developed and established, which gives other advantages in locating more industry there--it's just plain going to be cheaper and easier to build steel-using facilities in the Midwest, close to raw material sources like Pittsburgh and Minnesota than in the South or Southwest, even if power is more available in the latter places, for example.

Overall, then, I would expect this to somewhat negatively impact existing industrial hubs and build up fledgling hubs in some areas that didn't develop IOTL (like southern Italy, as has been hinted, Egypt, or Chile), but not to cause a radical redistribution of industrialization from the poles towards the equator.

Solar power wouldn't be able to compete with hydropower because the requisites for both are almost antagonistic. So solar wouldn't have much impact in areas like the US North East and much of Europe (and also Chile, ironically enough) and wouldn't have much direct effect in the development of industrial areas powered by hydro.

Coal could be built pretty much anywhere, provided there's a way to supply it. It doesn't have the intermittency of solar. So coal (and later oil) will be used for some decades still.

On the other hand, solar can provide power without fuel, and is much cheaper to operate as the devices themselves are simpler than coal boilers and require less maintenance.

Economically, solar competition to coal will reduce the demand for it. Even if solar can only compete in specific areas or roles, this reduction in demand will result in lower prices, and thus lower production rates (or perhaps an increase in production as marginal costs keep energy prices constant, but that also would result in an increase for alternatives to coal as they also reach a new margin).

In short: cheaper energy or more of it.

The impact if solar energy will be felt in colonies and undeveloped parts of the world. It won't result in a migration of industries to the equator, but it will make industrialization of the tropics easier and allow the colonies to further exploit their competitive advantages.

The great outlier of this will be Atacama.

World-map-of-long-term-average-of-direct-normal-solar-irradiance-GeoModel-Solar-2016.png


The extreme solar irradiance will make solar the power source for the desert, enough to power Chile and maybe its neighbours.
 
In short: cheaper energy or more of it.

The impact if solar energy will be felt in colonies and undeveloped parts of the world. It won't result in a migration of industries to the equator, but it will make industrialization of the tropics easier and allow the colonies to further exploit their competitive advantages.

The great outlier of this will be Atacama.

World-map-of-long-term-average-of-direct-normal-solar-irradiance-GeoModel-Solar-2016.png


The extreme solar irradiance will make solar the power source for the desert, enough to power Chile and maybe its neighbours.

Definitely though I suspect that from looking at the map, I can see would be the rising Federation of Australia and Mexico under the Diaz adminsitration pushing for this. Australia because of exposure, but I would see Mexico would be closer because of shared culture and language there. US may take a while due to competing interests there.
 
Annex 1890: A Cold Winter I
Boston, Massachusetts
January, 1890


Abelino López-Tikuña tried to give the peace to his fellow churchgoers, knowing full well that only a few would give it back to him. His skin and his factions were different. They were also different in Bolivia, but back in his country he at least had a reputation and a respectable amount of wealth for others to pretend it didn't matter. Back in La Paz, he was an Engineer first and a Mestizo second. In Massachusetts, he was not even considered a Christian by some. It was the same discrimination he faced back home, and yet it felt different, more byzantine in its rules and hierarchies. Abelino was an Indian, the white-skinned people that made most of the congregation weren't white, but Paddies, and the black people were called unspeakable things by some.

His friend and colleague Izumi Ichirou was a Chinaman, despite being actually being from Nagasaki. He shook Abelino's hand with warmth, happy to see a familiar face among the crowd. He told Abelino about an idea he would like to discuss for their doctoral theses, after Mass. That he spared words for a mundane matter during the ceremony was unusual, which meant it was important.

Once it ended, Ichirou was free to speak about his idea outside Boston's Cathedral.
- Lopez-Tikuya-san, I was thinking about the Walipini - the Aymara word didn't survive Japanese pronunciation - and how it remains warm even as everything around freezes.
- Well, Señor Izumi? What were you thinking about? - Both men used their native tongues terms of formality, a weird internal code they developed.
- Our workers have noticed that the window panes feel as if they were robbing the heat from their bodies. Maybe they are exaggerating, but I looked up on it and it is obvious that the glass was the only part in contact with the environment. So... why not replace that solid glass with air?
- With air? I'm... not sure I follow.
- Yes, with air. Air is less dense than glass, thus it is better insulation than something solid.
- But air has no form, it is a gas. It will dissipate if you try to use warm air.
- That's why we will trap air. Between two panes of glass.

Which was a brilliant idea. The glass panes were the weakest link in the design, and breaking the material continuity in that interface between air masses would significantly reduce its impact. The men had lunch over the idea, made some quick calculations over the savings and then sketched a quick modification for one of the sunken greenhouses. Unspoken to Ichirou, who didn't have the funds to contribute, Abelino spared no expense to have the modification delivered as soon as possible. It did cost him, but he lived frugally on his Golden Exile (the benefits the Walipini provided to small landowners was politically inconvenient to the Cáceres administration), and had saved quite a bit of money.

Five days later, the modification was installed on the small experimental farm they had set up near the Insitute's campus. Abelino he entered into the modified Walipini to check the crops growing on the beds to see if they were alright, and was immediatly struck by the oversaturated, warm atmosphere. The muskmelons were smaller than he expected, but otherwise healthy. The asparagus and carrot beds were a week away from harvest, if not sooner. He took notes and registered everything he could as thoroughly as he could.

And just as he was leaving the farm, it occured to Abelino that he would need to register the changes during the night. He asked for a volunteer among the workers - former slaves or fugitive slaves that sought a better life in New England - and five replied. He only needed one, but it occured to him that some redundancy wouldn't hurt. The five men stood guard for the night, registering the changes in temperature (in Celsius, as it was proper) until dawn. Two in the double-pane model, two in an unmodified one, and one outside to check on both. He then left for Boston to have dinner with his son.

And when he returned to the farm early in the morning, the first things he heard weren't the temperature measurements or any sudden changes in the crops, but one of the workers lambasting the idea of the dual pane Walipini, reasoning that the snow now was deposited on the glass instead of melting on it.

- The glass is too cold now, it doesn't melt the snow, which then blocks the light. The older design didn't have that problem.

Lopez-Tikuña smiled. A smile that puzzled the worker, who would have to wait a moment for an explanation.

That day, Abelino had traded a big problem for a smaller one.
 
If it can exploit its mineral wealth as Chile is planning to do, Australia would have most of the advantages Atacama has.
Also notice that the Namibian coast and South African core is violet/purple too. AKA: The British Empire keeps on winning after ITL WW1. Perhaps a much, much more slow decolonization happening with the British managing to enact an Imperial Federation with Canada, Namibia+South Africa, Australia, and New Zealand in this ATL after the native colonies leave the Empire. Unlike OTL, where the scheme got nowhere.
 
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