Sir John Valentine Carden Survives. Part 2.

[diesal]

For my mind not having the loss of 300-400k troops with their equipment plus the higher morale of winning in North Africa and the far east will result in a much stronger economic position. Even aircraft losses will be reduced by not fighting in North Africa, I imagine the British economic position will be much stronger.

 

[Ramp-Rat]

You mean Force 136?

Apologies I had a brain fart, and entered the wrong number.

RR.

 

[diesal]

Also with the British in a better economic and military position the need to be seen to be doing something will be reduced. So less need for bomber command to be doing 1000 bomber raids etc.

 

[MattII]

For my mind not having the loss of 300-400k troops with their equipment plus the higher morale of winning in North Africa and the far east will result in a much stronger economic position. Even aircraft losses will be reduced by not fighting in North Africa, I imagine the British economic position will be much stronger.

The material losses there in OTL are estimated to have amounted to approximately 2,000 tanks and 1,400 aircraft. Of course, that goes for the Axis too, so they're up by most of 2,500 tanks, and 8,000 aircraft. Even with Lend Lease, the Soviets are going to be pressed hard.

 

[diesal]

The material losses there in OTL are estimated to have amounted to approximately 2,000 tanks and 1,400 aircraft. Of course, that goes for the Axis too, so they're up by most of 2,500 tanks, and 8,000 aircraft. Even with Lend Lease, the Soviets are going to be pressed hard.

Yes the big loser is the Soviet Union at this stage.

 

[pjmidd]

The material losses there in OTL are estimated to have amounted to approximately 2,000 tanks and 1,400 aircraft. Of course, that goes for the Axis too, so they're up by most of 2,500 tanks, and 8,000 aircraft. Even with Lend Lease, the Soviets are going to be pressed hard.

Except its logistics that's the problem not the amount of kit available, more tanks and planes without fuel make no difference. Nothing saved from not being used in Africa can help move the railheads forward and that's what Germany needed, perversely more tanks can mean less progress due to inability to supply them.

 

[diesal]

Except its logistics that's the problem not the amount of kit available, more tanks and planes without fuel make no difference. Nothing saved from not being used in Africa can help move the railheads forward and that's what Germany needed, perversely more tanks can mean less progress due to inability to supply them.

Yes but it’s not in isolation, the Germans managed to fuel those vehicles in Africa via a shaky marine logistics network. So they can use the same fuel to support them in Russia via railway links. Not sure how much if any fuel was sourced in North Africa in those days, i suspect most would have come from Romania. Which is rather closer to Ukraine than Tunisia

 

[pjmidd]

Yes but it’s not in dilation, the Germans managed to fuel those vehicles in Africa via a shaky marine logistics network. So they can use the same fuel to support them in Russia via railway links. Not sure how much if any fuel was sourced in North Africa in those days, i suspect most would have come from Romania. Which is rather closer to Ukraine than Tunisia

And how does this extra rail capacity suddenly appear? They were maxed, ( the reason they could not just mass everything on a drive on Moscow in the first place ) not to mention that the road network has rather nasty limits too. Till 1943, the problem was more getting stuff to the front than not having it.

 

[diesal]

And how does this extra rail capacity suddenly appear? They were maxed, ( the reason they could not just mass everything on a drive on Moscow in the first place ) not to mention that the road network has rather nasty limits too. Till 1943, the problem was more getting stuff to the front than not having it.

you reallocate resources to rail production and track laying. You use the Black Sea more effectively. Mechanise more so you don’t need to shift fodder, etc

 

[diesal]

Hobby

Horse Power Horses and the German Army of World War II by Tom Robertson So you have just purchased a German Motorised Panzer

www.flamesofwar.com

A good discussion of horses.

 

[pjmidd]

you reallocate resources to rail production and track laying. You use the Black Sea more effectively. Mechanise more so you don’t need to shift fodder, etc

What? If they just could do that and improve logistics they would have OTL. The German Army was actually de mechanising not mechanising in this period.

The numbers saved by not being in Africa may look big but they come with some equally big asterisk's.

They are the totals for the Axis over the entire campaign so not all available at once and some will have been lost anyway ( by the Italians in the fighting that occurred in Africa), not all can go to the Eastern Front ( a fair chunk is Italian and they will almost certainly be keeping most back to reinforce Italy and the Balkans in case the Allies come calling ) and the scale of the Eastern front with 4 million+ men deployed is an order of magnitude bigger.

 

[edgeworthy]

Would recomend against trusting Churchills memoir or book on WW2 it can remarkably self serving.

This is hardly a unique flaw.

Lots of wartime memoirs can be very un-reliable.
(Eisenhower's avoid taking responsibility for anything. About the only really remotely trustworthy one is Bill Slim)

 

[Look More Closely Later]

Also with the British in a better economic and military position the need to be seen to be doing something will be reduced. So less need for bomber command to be doing 1000 bomber raids etc.

More pressure for bomber command to be doing thousand bomber raids than in the original timeline, maybe, since as you comment in a subsequent post Stalin and Russia are under one heck of a lot of pressure - and Churchill can either do bomber raids on Berlin and the Ruhr to try and help Stalin and boost Russian morale, or Churchill can order a British landing in France or Norway to try and take poressure off more directly.

 

[pedmore1202]

More pressure for bomber command to be doing thousand bomber raids than in the original timeline, maybe, since as you comment in a subsequent post Stalin and Russia are under one heck of a lot of pressure - and Churchill can either do bomber raids on Berlin and the Ruhr to try and help Stalin and boost Russian morale, or Churchill can order a British landing in France or Norway to try and take poressure off more directly.

Conversely, there could actually be less pressure on Bomber Command to conduct those raids compared to OTL.

in OTL, the RAF, and bomber command specifically, were seen as the only real way Britain could take the war to Germany, and with the losses in France and Greece, the failures against the Germans in North Africa and the loss of Singapore and Malaya, they had to be seen to be doing something to hurt the Germans, otherwise America might start thinking that they weren’t worth supporting, and fearing a Russian capitulation if they thought Britain wasn’t willing to support them against the Nazi’s (also why Britain supplied so much equipment/resources to Russia, when they needed them themselves
so OTL was very much “we have to do something. RAF is the only effective weapon we have. Let’s throw everything into that.”

whereas ITTL, Britain is in a much stronger position. North Africa has been secured, Malaya held and the Japanese pushed back, and even losses such as France, Greece and Norway are not really classed as losses, due to the damage inflicted on the Germans and were mainly lost through factors outside British control (France collapsing etc). Plus the equipment Britain is supplying Russia with through lend-lease is far superior to that which was supplied OTL.

so overall, I think there will be less pressure/more ability to resist said pressure, on the British to conduct things like the 1000 bomber raids

 

[MattII]

OTOH, without the 'need to be seen to be doing something', perhaps they could be more strategic in their targets, focussing more on what will hurt the Nazi industrial capacity, rather than just bombing cities?

 

[Look More Closely Later]

Conversely, there could actually be less pressure on Bomber Command to conduct those raids compared to OTL.

in OTL, the RAF, and bomber command specifically, were seen as the only real way Britain could take the war to Germany, and with the losses in France and Greece, the failures against the Germans in North Africa and the loss of Singapore and Malaya, they had to be seen to be doing something to hurt the Germans, otherwise America might start thinking that they weren’t worth supporting, and fearing a Russian capitulation if they thought Britain wasn’t willing to support them against the Nazi’s (also why Britain supplied so much equipment/resources to Russia, when they needed them themselves
so OTL was very much “we have to do something. RAF is the only effective weapon we have. Let’s throw everything into that.”

whereas ITTL, Britain is in a much stronger position. North Africa has been secured, Malaya held and the Japanese pushed back, and even losses such as France, Greece and Norway are not really classed as losses, due to the damage inflicted on the Germans and were mainly lost through factors outside British control (France collapsing etc). Plus the equipment Britain is supplying Russia with through lend-lease is far superior to that which was supplied OTL.

so overall, I think there will be less pressure/more ability to resist said pressure, on the British to conduct things like the 1000 bomber raids

Doesn't really matter what flashy super-tanks the Western Allies have if Stalin surrenders or has to sign a ceasefire. Without the Soviets tying up millions of Axis troops, the cost of an amphibious landing in mainland Europe is too horrifically bloody (even if it has a hope to even temporarily succeed) for the politicians in Washington D.C. and Westminster to contemplate that their publics will stand for it.
The Allies can bomb now, to keep Stalin and his troops in the war and have a hope of making a landing later, or fail to bomb now and lose any opportunity of having a landing later and ironically have to bomb later (because that's the only option) anyway.

Edit:
Opposed amphibious landings are really, really, really hard in 1940's warfare - especially against an enemy with huge reserves of troops that they can rail in to throw your forces back into the sea.

 

[focus9912]

Conversely, there could actually be less pressure on Bomber Command to conduct those raids compared to OTL.

in OTL, the RAF, and bomber command specifically, were seen as the only real way Britain could take the war to Germany, and with the losses in France and Greece, the failures against the Germans in North Africa and the loss of Singapore and Malaya, they had to be seen to be doing something to hurt the Germans, otherwise America might start thinking that they weren’t worth supporting, and fearing a Russian capitulation if they thought Britain wasn’t willing to support them against the Nazi’s (also why Britain supplied so much equipment/resources to Russia, when they needed them themselves
so OTL was very much “we have to do something. RAF is the only effective weapon we have. Let’s throw everything into that.”

whereas ITTL, Britain is in a much stronger position. North Africa has been secured, Malaya held and the Japanese pushed back, and even losses such as France, Greece and Norway are not really classed as losses, due to the damage inflicted on the Germans and were mainly lost through factors outside British control (France collapsing etc). Plus the equipment Britain is supplying Russia with through lend-lease is far superior to that which was supplied OTL.

so overall, I think there will be less pressure/more ability to resist said pressure, on the British to conduct things like the 1000 bomber raids

OTOH, without the 'need to be seen to be doing something', perhaps they could be more strategic in their targets, focussing more on what will hurt the Nazi industrial capacity, rather than just bombing cities?

Based on the very little I have watched, considering the massive losses incurred during the bombing raids (and its arguable usefulness) before 1943...I do hope there is less pressure for them to do bombing raids....or at the very least, more preparation and adjustments so that the huge losses incurred could be reduced....

 

[vetinari]

OTOH, without the 'need to be seen to be doing something', perhaps they could be more strategic in their targets, focussing more on what will hurt the Nazi industrial capacity, rather than just bombing cities?

By this stage of the war, they had real difficulties navigating to anything other than cities. Until the introduction of H2S and Oboe they even had difficulties finding cities.

 

[Ramontxo]

And how does this extra rail capacity suddenly appear? They were maxed, ( the reason they could not just mass everything on a drive on Moscow in the first place ) not to mention that the road network has rather nasty limits too. Till 1943, the problem was more getting stuff to the front than not having it.

There are the trucks devoted to the North African theatre both German and Italian. They had to supply the Afrika Korps all the way up to Suez. As I understand it a considerable part of the Axis, both German and Italian, trucks capacity was used there.
"The distance from Tripoli to Benghazi was about 650 mi (1,050 km) and to El Alamein was 1,400 mi (2,300 km)." *
"The distance between Benghazi and Tobruk is 366 km. The road distance is 557.4 km"**
And
"The distance between Tripoli and Tobruk is
1013 km. The road distance is 1269.9 km."**
And
"The distance between Smolensk and Moscow is 369 km. The road distance is 399.5 km"**
If they could support the Tobruk Siege and the Crusader Battle from Tripoli and Benghazi they certainly could support the Korps in Russia.


*https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Western_Desert_campaign

**https://www.rome2rio.com/s/Tripoli/Tobruk

 

[MattII]

By this stage of the war, they had real difficulties navigating to anything other than cities. Until the introduction of H2S and Oboe they even had difficulties finding cities.

At night, yes. But I was thinking of daytime raids by squadrons of Mosquitoes.

As to the Russia situation, I think the period when the extra forces could do much for the German war effort is probably mostly passed by this point.