Ramp-Rat
Monthly Donor
China ITTL both during the remainder of the present conflict and the post war world.
The present conflict for China can be said to have started in 1937, with the Marco Polo Bridge Incident, and this along with the ongoing internal conflict, between the Nationalists, Communists and various War Lords. Meant that China was in a mess, long before the outbreak of the larger conflict in the region, between the Japanese and Western powers, particularly America and the British Empire. IOTL the capture of Burma along with all of the ports along the Chinese coast, meant that China was effectively cut off from the world. Yes small amounts of aid were flown in from India at enormous cost, and Joe sent very limited assistance to Mao and the communists. The Free French received three times the amount of LL that the Chinese did, and by being delivered by sea and not by air, were able to receive it at a much lower cost. There was no way IOTL that you could send a Sherman Tank to China, and anything larger than a 75 mm pack howitzer was a problem. Trucks had to be cut up and welded back together, as did any heavy machinery, fuel had to be sent on a deadicated aircraft or shipped in drums. Whereas ITTL, with the Burma Road remaining open, and possibly a fuel pipeline running along side, more and heavier equipment, supplies can be transported to China. If FIC can be liberated and the Haiphong to Kunming railway brought back into operation, tonnages that can be transported will increase exponentially. It should be possible to move ten freight trains a day in each direction, which if carrying 500 tons each would mean 5,000 tons daily and 150,000 tons a month. If the road can carry 500 tons a day plus however many gallons of fuel through a pipeline, that’s 15,000 tons a month, close to three times the aim for the airbridge, which would have a major impact on the war in China, then a combination of the road and this railway would be devastating to the Japanese war effort.
Unfortunately for China both of its potential leaders are fundamentally corrupt, and very much more interested in their ongoing political and military conflict against each other. Instead of what is best for the population or the nation, or the persecution of the war against the Japanese invaders. In an ideal world both Mao and Chiang would be removed from their respective positions, and be replaced by people who are more interested in the welfare of the people, and only mildly corrupt. However if Chiang can be forced to devote half of the supplies he is receiving, to the war against the Japanese, and not squirrelling the majority away for the post war conflict against the Communists. And with a larger American air component, the Japanese are in a world of hurt, as they find themselves in a three way battle between the Americans in the Pacific, the British in South East Asia, and the Chinese in China. The ongoing conflict between the Army and Navy over the limited resources available, will only intensify, as the Army is forced into two conflicts with stronger military forces. As for the Chinese especially Chiang, the much better performance of the British in SEA, is going to divert a significant portion of the Japanese Armies efforts into repulsing their assault in Indochina. This could led to one of three options in my opinion, first Chiang is extremely lucky and by the conclusion of the war has gained two thirds of the country, including Hong Kong and Macao, and the communists have been forced back into the northern third of China. Second Chiang has prosecuted a successful campaign and now has control over half of the nation, though the British have managed to get Hong Kong back and in the process liberate Macao, Chiang has declared that all other foreign concessions such as in Shanghai are over, and the communists and Japanese control the remainder of the country. There will subsequently be a major scramble once the Japanese surrender, with Chiang supported by the Americans gaining the majority of the coastal cities and ports. Finally come the end of the war, the nationalists under Chiang hold a third of the nation, the Japanese hold another third along with Manchuria, and the communists and some warlords control the remaining third. The British have liberated Hong Kong, Macao and the various international concessions in Shanghai.
In all cases there will be an extended Civil War in China after the Japanese surrender, and the Soviets will have invaded Manchuria. Depending on just how much the Americans are prepared to commit to a Nationalist victory, will determine how long it lasts. Should they go all in, highly unlikely, and provide major air and naval support, along with boots on the ground, it should all be over within a year or two. However this is the least likely scenario, the American people are just as determined to see the boys brought home as the British were. More likely is that the Americans provided limited naval support, mostly to keep the Soviets out, and other than training and major supplies, keep themselves basically out of the conflict. They might be prepared to donate surplus material to the Nationalists, they do have millions of dollars worth of equipment that has had one previous owner and is now surplus to requirements. But they are going to be extremely reluctant to commit any personnel especially draftees to the ongoing conflict in China. While the British are definitely going to sit this one out, as they have enormous commitments in Germany and at home. However the death of FDR and his replacement by Truman, means that any prediction is very much predicted on the American China Lobby being able to convince him to buy into their version of events. Should he decide that he wants as little as possible involvement in the Chinese Civil War, Chiang and the Nationalists could find themselves in a very sticky situation, only receiving the bear minimum of what they need to conduct a successful campaign against the Communists. The various changes that have occurred ITTL, especially in the East are going to have significant implications for the Post War era, and any predictions are very much dependent on the events that happen in SEA, China and the Pacific region over the next few years. If the Americans are forced to implement an invasion of Japan, and develop land bases in China in support of their invasion, this could substantially change their attitude towards China. Everything is very much up in the air for now, and nothing is going to become clear for a significant time, what if the attempt to assonate Adolf succeeds, could Winstons stroke while he was at a conference with FDR, be totally debilitating, might FDR die earlier or later. All of this we will have to wait for our author to decide.
RR.
The present conflict for China can be said to have started in 1937, with the Marco Polo Bridge Incident, and this along with the ongoing internal conflict, between the Nationalists, Communists and various War Lords. Meant that China was in a mess, long before the outbreak of the larger conflict in the region, between the Japanese and Western powers, particularly America and the British Empire. IOTL the capture of Burma along with all of the ports along the Chinese coast, meant that China was effectively cut off from the world. Yes small amounts of aid were flown in from India at enormous cost, and Joe sent very limited assistance to Mao and the communists. The Free French received three times the amount of LL that the Chinese did, and by being delivered by sea and not by air, were able to receive it at a much lower cost. There was no way IOTL that you could send a Sherman Tank to China, and anything larger than a 75 mm pack howitzer was a problem. Trucks had to be cut up and welded back together, as did any heavy machinery, fuel had to be sent on a deadicated aircraft or shipped in drums. Whereas ITTL, with the Burma Road remaining open, and possibly a fuel pipeline running along side, more and heavier equipment, supplies can be transported to China. If FIC can be liberated and the Haiphong to Kunming railway brought back into operation, tonnages that can be transported will increase exponentially. It should be possible to move ten freight trains a day in each direction, which if carrying 500 tons each would mean 5,000 tons daily and 150,000 tons a month. If the road can carry 500 tons a day plus however many gallons of fuel through a pipeline, that’s 15,000 tons a month, close to three times the aim for the airbridge, which would have a major impact on the war in China, then a combination of the road and this railway would be devastating to the Japanese war effort.
Unfortunately for China both of its potential leaders are fundamentally corrupt, and very much more interested in their ongoing political and military conflict against each other. Instead of what is best for the population or the nation, or the persecution of the war against the Japanese invaders. In an ideal world both Mao and Chiang would be removed from their respective positions, and be replaced by people who are more interested in the welfare of the people, and only mildly corrupt. However if Chiang can be forced to devote half of the supplies he is receiving, to the war against the Japanese, and not squirrelling the majority away for the post war conflict against the Communists. And with a larger American air component, the Japanese are in a world of hurt, as they find themselves in a three way battle between the Americans in the Pacific, the British in South East Asia, and the Chinese in China. The ongoing conflict between the Army and Navy over the limited resources available, will only intensify, as the Army is forced into two conflicts with stronger military forces. As for the Chinese especially Chiang, the much better performance of the British in SEA, is going to divert a significant portion of the Japanese Armies efforts into repulsing their assault in Indochina. This could led to one of three options in my opinion, first Chiang is extremely lucky and by the conclusion of the war has gained two thirds of the country, including Hong Kong and Macao, and the communists have been forced back into the northern third of China. Second Chiang has prosecuted a successful campaign and now has control over half of the nation, though the British have managed to get Hong Kong back and in the process liberate Macao, Chiang has declared that all other foreign concessions such as in Shanghai are over, and the communists and Japanese control the remainder of the country. There will subsequently be a major scramble once the Japanese surrender, with Chiang supported by the Americans gaining the majority of the coastal cities and ports. Finally come the end of the war, the nationalists under Chiang hold a third of the nation, the Japanese hold another third along with Manchuria, and the communists and some warlords control the remaining third. The British have liberated Hong Kong, Macao and the various international concessions in Shanghai.
In all cases there will be an extended Civil War in China after the Japanese surrender, and the Soviets will have invaded Manchuria. Depending on just how much the Americans are prepared to commit to a Nationalist victory, will determine how long it lasts. Should they go all in, highly unlikely, and provide major air and naval support, along with boots on the ground, it should all be over within a year or two. However this is the least likely scenario, the American people are just as determined to see the boys brought home as the British were. More likely is that the Americans provided limited naval support, mostly to keep the Soviets out, and other than training and major supplies, keep themselves basically out of the conflict. They might be prepared to donate surplus material to the Nationalists, they do have millions of dollars worth of equipment that has had one previous owner and is now surplus to requirements. But they are going to be extremely reluctant to commit any personnel especially draftees to the ongoing conflict in China. While the British are definitely going to sit this one out, as they have enormous commitments in Germany and at home. However the death of FDR and his replacement by Truman, means that any prediction is very much predicted on the American China Lobby being able to convince him to buy into their version of events. Should he decide that he wants as little as possible involvement in the Chinese Civil War, Chiang and the Nationalists could find themselves in a very sticky situation, only receiving the bear minimum of what they need to conduct a successful campaign against the Communists. The various changes that have occurred ITTL, especially in the East are going to have significant implications for the Post War era, and any predictions are very much dependent on the events that happen in SEA, China and the Pacific region over the next few years. If the Americans are forced to implement an invasion of Japan, and develop land bases in China in support of their invasion, this could substantially change their attitude towards China. Everything is very much up in the air for now, and nothing is going to become clear for a significant time, what if the attempt to assonate Adolf succeeds, could Winstons stroke while he was at a conference with FDR, be totally debilitating, might FDR die earlier or later. All of this we will have to wait for our author to decide.
RR.
