Sir John Valentine Carden Survives. Part 2.

[Aber]

Actually not. The 75 mm HV and the 77 mm both used the case from the 3” 20 cwt AA gun, which was still in production. The 75 mm AA gun, in the context of this discussion was a relatively short run export model from the 30’s.

Oops; you are correct.

 

[wally]

So 10-11 divisions in Malaya with 6 divisions in Burma vs what's left of a broken army and 2 JIA divisions which as of shipping will be feed in piecemeal of one regiment at time.

 

[X Oristos]

So 10-11 divisions in Malaya with 6 divisions in Burma vs what's left of a broken army and 2 JIA divisions which as of shipping will be feed in piecemeal of one regiment at time.

Certainly an overkill. I would expect some of these formations to be shifted to the Dutch East Indies. The Malay Barrier was more than Malaya after all. I would expect the australian government to demand imperial troops garrisoning Timor and protecting Java. After all, the whole Barrier strategy was conceived to protect Australia first and foremost.

 

[MattII]

More tanks are arriving too, which will be even worse for the Japanese.

 

[focus9912]

Certainly an overkill. I would expect some of these formations to be shifted to the Dutch East Indies. The Malay Barrier was more than Malaya after all. I would expect the australian government to demand imperial troops garrisoning Timor and protecting Java. After all, the whole Barrier strategy was conceived to protect Australia first and foremost.

Is it though? Especially since we are talking about...

Pushing the Japanese out of Malaya, Borneo, and perhaps French Indo-China, would likely be every bit as difficult.

Borneo would definitely be a hard one, since it require multiple landings (since there is not an adequate (if it is exist) road network available to connect between the isolated coastal towns of Borneo with each other)

Meanwhile, I do not know the infrastructure in Indo-China at the time, but the Mekong river do provide a big obstacle (Is there any bridge that cross the river at the time?) .

That being said, Singapore is the training base for these divisions, and after training and familiarization (in the jungles of Johor and Singapore) which would probably take a while, there would be allocated to the required locations like the ones you mentioned.

 

[MattII]

I suspect a fair number of the men will spend time wielding tools rather than guns, in an effort to bring the logistics up to spec. Penang in particular looks like a good spot for a logistics hub, once it's been liberated.

 

[wally]

I wonder how this affects the railways in NA and SEA with them being in allied control with a need to support build ups for some time before the next strategic jump. Italy for NA and maybe Philippines for SEA

 

[MattII]

I wonder how this affects the railways in NA and SEA with them being in allied control with a need to support build ups for some time before the next strategic jump. Italy for NA and maybe Philippines for SEA

Depends how critical it is. In NA for example, the fighting is already over, so there might not be a huge need for a railroad.

 

[yulzari1]

Sadly, in the parts of Liverpool where some of the docks are (Seaforth and Bootle* for example) , there are people who would do just that - the stereotype Scallies who give Scousers a bad name. And this is from someone who is from Merseyside.



*When Obi-Wan Kenobi stood on the cliffs overlooking Mos Eisley Spaceport and told a young Luke Skywalker that he would never find a more wretched hive of Scum and Villany, it was obvious he'd never visited Bootle...

Bootle. Where the bugs wear clogs………. Driver, is this bus going to Speke? It hasn’t so far. Driver, does this bus stop at the Pierhead? It always has done so far. What do you call a Scouser in a suit? I will stop now and find my medication.

 

[yulzari1]

Dockers were accused (with justification) of pilfering survival rations from ships boats. Some people will nick anything. Dockers the world over seemed to think that they had the right to lift anything not bolted down as a perq of the job.

I do love your accurate contraction of ‘perquisites‘ and not perks. You’m been larned proper m’luvver.

 

[Thoresby]

So 10-11 divisions in Malaya with 6 divisions in Burma vs what's left of a broken army and 2 JIA divisions which as of shipping will be feed in piecemeal of one regiment at time.

Certainly an overkill. I would expect some of these formations to be shifted to the Dutch East Indies. The Malay Barrier was more than Malaya after all. I would expect the australian government to demand imperial troops garrisoning Timor and protecting Java. After all, the whole Barrier strategy was conceived to protect Australia first and foremost.

Even when the Malaya is totally cleared and the Burma and Malay fronts are unified into a Thai front the British Empire is going to need to cover the following until the IJN is driven from the South China Sea:

• Malaya: this can be made up of units rotated out from the front but they are going to want to keep at least a 2 Divisions on the Peninsular
• Riau Island: if it hasn't been taken and can be held it would be a very useful base, 1 Brigade
• Borneo & Celebes Islands: Due to terrain this is actually going to be half a dozen different fronts but is going to suck up the equivalent of a Corps so 3 Divisions though at a minimum.
• Moluccas: With the Japanese in the Philippines these are going to have to be garrisoned to keep the IJN out of the Banda Sea, the DEI can't do it so another Division worth of troops is going to be needed.
• Dutch New Guinea: With the rest of the DEI holding this isn't in that much danger but is still going to need some sort of defence, 1 Brigade
• Papua New Guinea: 1 Brigade, probably a Australian Militia one.
• Thailand Front: More is better but at the minimum you are going to want a full, 9 Division Army.

So that is a total requirement for 16 British Empire Divisions.

Australia can probably manage 5 Divisions without it's OTL losses in North Africa but for Imperial unity reasons I suspect 2 Divisions will be required in West leaving a Corps plus a brigade of Militia for this theatre.
India can also be relied on for at least 15 Divisions in total though the Middle East and Med will suck up 2 Corps worth leaving 9 Divisions for the Pacific. But it won't reach that sized force for another year.
Africa can probably provide it's OTL 2 Divisions.
Meaning in the long run there will only be a need for 2 British Divisions to round out the force.

 

[MattII]

One thing I wonder, if the allies can wreck the KB in the South China Sea, and the Doolittle Raid comes off, what will Japan do?

 

[vetinari]

One thing I wonder, if the allies can wreck the KB in the South China Sea, and the Doolittle Raid comes off, what will Japan do?

Pour money into the development of an adequate interceptor aircraft? A super-Ki-44?

 

[MattII]

That won't help against submarines.

 

[Thoresby]

One thing I wonder, if the allies can wreck the KB in the South China Sea, and the Doolittle Raid comes off, what will Japan do?

If is doing a lot of work there, at this point the IJN has superior training, equipment and doctrine in carrier ops compared to the RN and almost certainly superior numbers in theatre. What they need is a few months of wartime ops generating attrition to weaken the Kido Butai coupled with taking Scily and clearing the Med to enable all the RN's modern fleet carriers to be sent East.

 

[kelgar04]

Pour money into the development of an adequate interceptor aircraft? A super-Ki-44?

More like two since the army will develop one as will the navy.

 

[X Oristos]

• Malaya: this can be made up of units rotated out from the front but they are going to want to keep at least a 2 Divisions on the Peninsular
• Riau Island: if it hasn't been taken and can be held it would be a very useful base, 1 Brigade
• Borneo & Celebes Islands: Due to terrain this is actually going to be half a dozen different fronts but is going to suck up the equivalent of a Corps so 3 Divisions though at a minimum.
• Moluccas: With the Japanese in the Philippines these are going to have to be garrisoned to keep the IJN out of the Banda Sea, the DEI can't do it so another Division worth of troops is going to be needed.
• Dutch New Guinea: With the rest of the DEI holding this isn't in that much danger but is still going to need some sort of defence, 1 Brigade
• Papua New Guinea: 1 Brigade, probably a Australian Militia one.
• Thailand Front: More is better but at the minimum you are going to want a full, 9 Division Army.

I don't think that the Allies have the time for a force generation that properly defends the Moluccas and the Dutch New Guinea. They risk a defeat in detail and Dutch New Guinea simply is not worth the assets. Since the Allies do not have an overwhelming naval superiority, each small garrison will be on its own, similar to the japanese ones from 1943 onwards.

Instead, by concentrating on main islands they can have singificantly larger forces in Java and Timor than the japanese sea lift capacity can provide. After all, the sumatran and javanese oil fields are the real prize and everybody knows it. And Timor is both the bridge to Java and a base to bomb Australia - politically unacceptable.

I would argue that Borneo, other than Singkawang, Pontianak and Kuching that can be used as airbases against Singapore, is a resource sinkhole. The British Empire has way more urgent priorities than reclaiming Sarawak and dutch oil fields, at least until 1944. To allocate the equivalent of an army that will use a significant part of the british sea lift capacity at this point of the war is not the best resource allocation.

The major bottleneck of the divisions at the Thailand Front will be logistics. To build a 9 division army around the ports of Malaya and Rangoon is rather easy. To supply 9 divisions in Thailand is another thing altogether.

Overall, I doubt that SE Asia will become a priority of London. Not before the Empire's interests are served. Said interests entail an open Mediterranean to project power in the Indo-Pacific. And Europe will always be a priority for shipping and amphibious assault capacity. Overall, I think it will be mostly a Raj and Australian show with limited metropolitan forces to demonstrate London's commitment.

 

[pjmidd]

Pour money into the development of an adequate interceptor aircraft? A super-Ki-44?

Plane will be useless without a more powerful engine which was the rate limiting step. Japanese are in a bit of a bind as they cannot just keep upping the octane for the easy win.

 

[kelgar04]

Plane will be useless without a more powerful engine which was the rate limiting step. Japanese are in a bit of a bind as they cannot just keep upping the octane for the easy win.

Also doesn't help that Japanese machinery can be quite strange.

 

[The Wooksta!]

They did have a high altitude fighter under development, Tachikawa 82(?). I have a kit of it somewhere.