Sir John Valentine Carden Survives. Part 2.

[Icedaemon]

To my mind, a lot of the 'this past figure who is henceforth remembered for achievement A ought to instead be vilified for moral failure by modern standards X' tripe stems from a frankly somewhat perverse in my eyes desire to tear down any and all celebrated heroes of the past which is part and parcel of a zeitgeist where one is to be deemed of value simply for being 'famous' for useless crap like taking part of gameshows or being an 'influencer' or 'activist'. Such empty people whose importance is overbloated can only hope to stand next to people with actual achievements if said other people are denigrated in some way, and imposing modern sensibilities to accuse people who are too dead to argue is a cheap shot. I would hope that the majority of this forum's patrons are above that.

Churchill being blamed for the fiasco at Gallipoli and other harebrained schemes which got unnecessary numbers of people killed for little in the way of results makes sense. Trying to downplay his role in facing down hitler when the nazis seemed unstoppable because he said some rude things and was in favour of colonialism is nonsensical.

 

[focus9912]

Also has to be remembered that Britain owned Palestine at the time and was caught between the Balfour declaration and the people already living their. Even with holocaust suggesting the Jewish claim should be favoured it was still a massive headache especially once the first plan (a North south split with Jerusalem as an international city) fell through and the fighting escalated. Broadly it was a huge mess and with the even bigger one in India not a problem the government of the day would have been happy to be dealing with. It's less about general antisemitism (although many British politicians were) and more "How the hell do we deal with this mess?"

Yup, IMO, the British political establishment was (and arguably still is) having trouble handling the consequences of their action regarding this.....
and as I had said before, the changes that are happening in this timeline could add some unexpected wrenches (or perhaps some opportunities for a solution) to this whole mess.

 

[JamesHunter]

Yup, IMO, the British political establishment was (and arguably still is) having trouble handling the consequences of their action regarding this.....
and as I had said before, the changes that are happening in this timeline could add some unexpected wrenches (or perhaps some opportunities for a solution) to this whole mess.

Unfortunately most of the Holocaust deaths (outside later pulses in Hungary and Italy and a constant tens of thousands a month from extermination by labour ) took place during 1942. As such at least 2/3rds-3/4's of the victims are going to die whatever happens because even with the best will in the world none of this will push D-Day further up than 1943. End result is roughly similar numbers in both sides when the war for Palestine heats up.

 

[focus9912]

Unfortunately most of the Holocaust deaths (outside later pulses in Hungary and Italy and a constant tens of thousands a month from extermination by labour ) took place during 1942. As such at least 2/3rds-3/4's of the victims are going to die whatever happens because even with the best will in the world none of this will push D-Day further up than 1943. End result is roughly similar numbers in both sides when the war for Palestine heats up.

I guess so, even though I was more concentrating about changes with the Arab side of the conflict, without giving any thought to the potential changes on the Jewish side. Although I need some clarification on how would the news travel from one side of the Indian Ocean to another side, and does the Japanese invasion cut off that stream of news IOTL..
and even with the British being relatively in a less tighter situation ITTL, could they really can do anything in reducing some of the tensions there?

 

[Mark1878]

Also has to be remembered that Britain owned Palestine at the time and was caught between the Balfour declaration and the people already living there. Even with holocaust suggesting the Jewish claim should be favoured it was still a massive headache especially once the first plan (a North south split with Jerusalem as an international city) fell through and the fighting escalated. Broadly it was a huge mess and with the even bigger one in India not a problem the government of the day would have been happy to be dealing with. It's less about general antisemitism (although many British politicians were) and more "How the hell do we deal with this mess?"

Wasn't a driver that the terrorists killing British soldiers were the Irgun and Stern Gang so a legitmate feeling not to like parts of the Jewish inhabitants in Palestine. Also the public view of Arabs might well be influenced by T.E. Lawence's book. "Seven Pillars of Wisdom" There would not have been much support for keeping the peace between Arabs and Israelis.

 

[allanpcameron]

9 February 1942. Grik, Malaya.

The road to Grik was the only road out of the cauldron between Ipoh and Kuala Kangsar. The remnants of General Yamashita’s 25th Army trudged along the tracks and paths towards, what they hoped was safety. For over a week the fresh British 18th Infantry and Australian 9 Divisions had ground down the 5th, 18th and Imperial Guards Divisions. The Australian 8 Division, had cut the 25th Army off from its main line of communications and resisted every attempt to dislodge their chokehold.

The more tenuous link between Grik and Ipoh had been the target of the RAF’s efforts to interdict the one remaining route open to the Japanese. The situation regarding air cover had changed dramatically over the last few weeks. As the Tomahawk squadrons had become operational, and the Hurricane squadrons had been reinforced, the Japanese mastery of the air had been wrestled off them. The attrition to both sides had been debilitating, but the better airfields used by the British gave them an edge, as had the growing capacity of the Radio Direction Finding equipment. More and more often the Tomahawks were carrying bombs, carrying out an army cooperation role, while the Hurricanes provided an umbrella of protection above them.

The Australian 9 Division Cavalry Regiment’s M3 Light Tanks and the Matilda IIs of the Royal Tank Regiment had ultimately been one of the main factors that inflicted the defeat on the Japanese. While the Stuart tanks had proven vulnerable to the Japanese anti-tank weapons, the Matilda II remained just about impervious. The freshness of the Australian Corps also was an important difference. Most of the Japanese troops had been in action since 8 December, and each of those actions had bled them. Their own logistical system also caused them to be in a weakened state. It may have been the case that their martial spirit was still strong, but when your body is suffering from malnutrition, and you don’t have enough ammunition, then a soldier’s courage, or blind allegiance to their emperor, could only take them so far.

The men from England and Australia had also suffered, but they had begun fresh, and fully equipped. The 9 Australian Division had a strong esprit de corps and the advantage of being battle tested and victorious. With great flexibility, a strong artillery branch, and a way of overcoming obstacles with guile and bloody-mindedness, the Australians had broken Yamashita’s men. It wasn’t a classic definition of a rout, but had many of the characteristics of the same.

At first the lack of prisoners had worried the Corps commanders, but the reality was that the Japanese were literally fighting to the death. Any prisoners that were captured tended to be very sick, and even then, suicidal. Compared to the way the Italians had fought, it was sickening to the Australian troops. The expenditure of ammunition by the Australian Corps was far higher than expected, but it had become clear to just about every Australian that the only sure way to make sure they survived was to use every weapon at their disposal to silence the enemy. Even at that, a great many bayonets had to be cleaned of blood and guts.

Lieutenant-General MacKay, when seeing the way the battle was progressing, urged Major-General Cecil Callaghan (GOC 8 Division) to swing at least one of his Brigades to move up the main road towards Butterworth and Penang Island. The force immediately available to Brigadier Harold Taylor was a Squadron of the Divisional Cavalry Regiment, (Captain Miell’s A Squadron) and most of 2/19 Battalion, carried on lorries. Taylor had ordered Lt Col Charles Anderson to make sure to his advance was to take all necessary precautions to avoid being ambushed and cut off.

Anderson spoke to Captain Miell whose squadron had already done some reconnaissance up the main road towards Butterworth, and knew the next ten miles or so were clear of the enemy. By the time the orders had been communicated, and the transport and supplies sorted, there was only a few hours of daylight left. Anderson and Miell agreed to move up the ten miles to the vicinity of the reservoir. They would camp there until morning and then advance to Bagan Serai where the railway and the road crossed one another.

Taylor was keen on making sure that the other road, on the other side of the reservoir was also covered. Major-General Callaghan had ordered 16 Brigade to deploy a strong force up that road towards Selama. With the Japanese pocket collapsing, the Australians’ who had been the cork in the bottle, were now able to thin out from that role and begin to move northwards. It would however be the next day before 2/3 Battalion would be ready to move, with one of the other Squadrons of the Divisional Cavalry Regiment able to support them with reconnaissance and their armour.

The map, showing the area in OTL.

 

[JamesHunter]

Churchill: They came, they saw, we won.
Aussie's: Who you calling "we?"

Anyway it's over barring the shouting as the back of the Japanese has been thoroughly broken.

 

[vl100butch]

So what does this do to the Japanese overall war plan? Seems to me that some pressure will come off of the PI?

 

[morgoth2005]

The post war analysis will be interesting if in nearly every theatre bar France, fighting starts with understrength Empire forces getting pushed back and then finding a line in depth, and pushing back with heavier armour. Obviously much of the credit will go to the tank industry but also to the logistical and organisational machine that is able to rapidly redeploy forces to not just effectively fight fires but also put them out - perhaps a recognition of the Navy/global force projection different from OTL analyses.

 

[Derek Pullem]

The post war analysis will be interesting if in nearly every theatre bar France, fighting starts with understrength Empire forces getting pushed back and then finding a line in depth, and pushing back with heavier armour. Obviously much of the credit will go to the tank industry but also to the logistical and organisational machine that is able to rapidly redeploy forces to not just effectively fight fires but also put them out - perhaps a recognition of the Navy/global force projection different from OTL analyses.

It probably won't be recognised as such but we are talking "marginal gains" theory. Better tanks mean more surviving tanks and especially crews which meant a faster victory in Libya which released troops for Malaya.

 

[kelgar04]

So what does this do to the Japanese overall war plan? Seems to me that some pressure will come off of the PI?

Not sure to move the formations they need takes time. Also need to consider the local theater commanders as well in the last update we had of them they were in the Blind optimism phase.

Some may chose or be invited to use the garden to atone for their dishonour but right now they need to see what they have left and try to salvage what they can. So maybe a pull back but how far depends on the terrain and how hard the Commonwealth and allies push.

 

[MattII]

Hm, I wonder if this retreat will force the Japanese to pull yet more forces from elsewhere to try to shore things up...

 

[Paulo the Limey]

It probably won't be recognised as such but we are talking "marginal gains" theory. Better tanks mean more surviving tanks and especially crews which meant a faster victory in Libya which released troops for Malaya.

Virtuous circle is in full effect.

• Better tanks lead to higher losses for Wehrmacht in Germany, including a certain hard charging General.
• Better tanks leads to more streamlining of tank production, increasing numbers.
• increased numbers of better tanks lead to more tanks and crews surviving in battle, increasing the amount of experience and the amount of tanks available. So ending up with more tanks, with better crews.
• Without such a desperate need for new armoured vehicle designs, a lot of crap isn’t produced, increasing the amount of production capacity available to build Corden’s designs.
• New tank designs aren’t as rushed, allowing them to debut when at least partially debugged, improving the quantity available to make it to the battlefield on any given day.
• Reduced need for tank guns allows for faster and more efficient switchover to the 6 pounder, increasing the ability of tanks to survive and support infantry.
• Bigger and better armoured forces are able to perform much better in North Africa, holding more of the coastline. This takes pressure off convoys to Malta, reducing RN losses on these battles.
• All the above leads to ability to send substantially more reinforcements to the Far East.

I’m sure there are other things.

 

[Obfuscated]

They (IJN/IJA commanders) also had a bad habit of lying to each about the extent or even happening of reverses so might be some time before the japanese side has the full picture of the failures and their impact.

 

[MattII]

Virtuous circle is in full effect.

• Better tanks lead to higher losses for Wehrmacht in Germany, including a certain hard charging General.
• Better tanks leads to more streamlining of tank production, increasing numbers.
• increased numbers of better tanks lead to more tanks and crews surviving in battle, increasing the amount of experience and the amount of tanks available. So ending up with more tanks, with better crews.
• Without such a desperate need for new armoured vehicle designs, a lot of crap isn’t produced, increasing the amount of production capacity available to build Corden’s designs.
• New tank designs aren’t as rushed, allowing them to debut when at least partially debugged, improving the quantity available to make it to the battlefield on any given day.
• Reduced need for tank guns allows for faster and more efficient switchover to the 6 pounder, increasing the ability of tanks to survive and support infantry.
• Bigger and better armoured forces are able to perform much better in North Africa, holding more of the coastline. This takes pressure off convoys to Malta, reducing RN losses on these battles.
• All the above leads to ability to send substantially more reinforcements to the Far East.

I’m sure there are other things.

You forgot to mention, more and better tanks in NA frees up more vehicles for use in Greece, allowing a much more successful retreat strategy, and the retention of Crete.

 

[Garrison]

It really doesn't take major improvements to any of the Allies to generate a snowball effect that will radically improve their performance and shorten the war.

 

[Look More Closely Later]

Ouch. Imperial Japan finding out the hard way that warrior spirit only gets you so far when the other side has it too and much better tanks.
Someone in the Imperial Japanese home islands at this point is possibly designing an Imperial Japanese version of the Covenanter for panic production, whilst the IJN argues that it needs the steel and armour for their ships...

Edit:
I wonder if the USA is planning for a 'Doolittle Raid' in this timeline? If Bataan is still going as badly as the original timeline, I guess they may still feel a need for a 'we can strike back!' propaganda raid.

 

[MattII]

Ooh, I just noticed, missing threadmark on the last post. The last two posts in fact.

 

[Peg Leg Pom]

Edit:
I wonder if the USA is planning for a 'Doolittle Raid' in this timeline? If Bataan is still going as badly as the original timeline, I guess they may still feel a need for a 'we can strike back!' propaganda raid.

I think it even more likely than OTL, if only to show the US population that it's not just the British Empire and Dutch that are hurting the Japanese.

 

[MattII]

I guess the American showing at Kendari wasn't enough to make national headlines?

I'm guessing the IJN's southern thrust (the TTL equivalent of the Indian Ocean Raid) is going to involve all six carriers? I do wonder how that will affect things...