The timing makes for an interesting few days in the media. Britain/Commonwealth get a lot of nice domestic press and presumably some good stuff in the US/unaligned. So when Japan starts its invasion, even if still very succesful, it will be tempered by this habing down a full run of news beforehand
Sir John Valentine Carden Survives. Part 2.
- Thread starter allanpcameron
- Start date
Under heavy attack from the Desert Air Force every foot of the way. They may not make it to the border, which would make a lot of people sigh in relief at a problem avoided.
Going back to the forces available in North Africa for the French.
In Nov 42/Jan 43. there had been the insertion of the US forces in Op Torch. That had resulted in Op Anton, so the French in North Africa now saw this as their rationale to enlist to free metropolitan France. People previously having served now volunteered to liberate the sacred soil of France.
in 1941, USA has not yet entered the war let alone invaded French territory. Weygand has no incentive to annoy the Germans to give them an excuse to occupy the rest of Metropolitan France . There is no reason for the reservists of the French Army in North Africa to be mobilised, as that will trigger the Op Anton plan. Any attempt at increasing the Armistice decreed levels would be seen by Germany as a violation of the Armistice and result in increasing restrictions on Metropolitan France.
As another poster here, who has cited their own family outlook in North Africa, has pointed out, the French In north Africa wanted to preserve the Vichy Regime as it was regarded as the legitimate Government. Weygand is restricted at the moment to the agreed levels of military. If the French thought they needed 50,000 troops in Algeria and 50,000 troops in Morocco to maintain order, and the Germans agreed, then who are we in the 21st century to say , no, these colonies were peaceful and did not need such troops. We were not part of the Armistice negotiating group.
But I am reminded of the actions of the Spanish in the Riff war in the 20's , only a few decades previously where the Spanish had a hard fought battle against the tribes that spanned the border.
The North African colonies were not always as calm and accepting of French rule as we might have expected. So again, some , but not all forces, would have to be held back to control tribal and other insurrections,
If we say that only 30% need to need to be kept in place to quell tribal troubles, that means that Weygand can redeploy about 70,000 troops to Tunisia without the Armistice Commission having any real basis for objection. Metropolitan France cannot contribute to this. So he has now 70,000 troops plus the Tunisia garrison on the border with Libya and in the Mareth line. All in accordance with international law about preserving borders in international disputes .
This is an overmatch of forces vis-a-vis the German forces. If they have more than 10,000 troops now in North Africa I would be astounded. So any attempt at forcing the borders is an immediate Armistice Commission problem. A simple internment would satisfy the legal requirements and a POW exchange could be explained away, as long as they did not include personal weapons. 5,-10, 00 Germans ( are that many left in Libya?) vs 10,000 French POWs from German POW camps would satisfy French and world opinion, and be well regarded by the French, although Churchill might be upset.
In Nov 42/Jan 43. there had been the insertion of the US forces in Op Torch. That had resulted in Op Anton, so the French in North Africa now saw this as their rationale to enlist to free metropolitan France. People previously having served now volunteered to liberate the sacred soil of France.
in 1941, USA has not yet entered the war let alone invaded French territory. Weygand has no incentive to annoy the Germans to give them an excuse to occupy the rest of Metropolitan France . There is no reason for the reservists of the French Army in North Africa to be mobilised, as that will trigger the Op Anton plan. Any attempt at increasing the Armistice decreed levels would be seen by Germany as a violation of the Armistice and result in increasing restrictions on Metropolitan France.
As another poster here, who has cited their own family outlook in North Africa, has pointed out, the French In north Africa wanted to preserve the Vichy Regime as it was regarded as the legitimate Government. Weygand is restricted at the moment to the agreed levels of military. If the French thought they needed 50,000 troops in Algeria and 50,000 troops in Morocco to maintain order, and the Germans agreed, then who are we in the 21st century to say , no, these colonies were peaceful and did not need such troops. We were not part of the Armistice negotiating group.
But I am reminded of the actions of the Spanish in the Riff war in the 20's , only a few decades previously where the Spanish had a hard fought battle against the tribes that spanned the border.
The North African colonies were not always as calm and accepting of French rule as we might have expected. So again, some , but not all forces, would have to be held back to control tribal and other insurrections,
If we say that only 30% need to need to be kept in place to quell tribal troubles, that means that Weygand can redeploy about 70,000 troops to Tunisia without the Armistice Commission having any real basis for objection. Metropolitan France cannot contribute to this. So he has now 70,000 troops plus the Tunisia garrison on the border with Libya and in the Mareth line. All in accordance with international law about preserving borders in international disputes .
This is an overmatch of forces vis-a-vis the German forces. If they have more than 10,000 troops now in North Africa I would be astounded. So any attempt at forcing the borders is an immediate Armistice Commission problem. A simple internment would satisfy the legal requirements and a POW exchange could be explained away, as long as they did not include personal weapons. 5,-10, 00 Germans ( are that many left in Libya?) vs 10,000 French POWs from German POW camps would satisfy French and world opinion, and be well regarded by the French, although Churchill might be upset.
marathag
Banned
It was supposedly less confusing than the original post 1812 method, of using the year of adoption.
What could go wrong with dozens of M1, right?
Weygand seems to be the wild card when it comes to which ever way French North Africa will leap. It also doesn't help that the meeting he help a few posts ago will put him even more between a rock and a hard place. Since he will probably have spies from the Vichy government watching his every move he could already be a dead man walking.
Due to their neutral status, could the Allies have used French North Africa as a supplier of food and ammunition for the forthcoming invasion of Continental Europe? Or were there restrictions in the German Armistive that would ban such behaviour? Where I'm going with this is that obviously the Allies have more buying power and could afford to to pay the French significantly more to shift delivery of critical materials (oil, tungsten, food) from Italy and Germany to Allied nations....this creating mass inflation and shortage which in Italy in particular could be incredibly destabilizing.
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As soon as French North Africa starts to lean towards the Allies rather than supply the Axis Vichy gets occupied. Even going strictly neutral rather than (reluctantly or not) pro Axis neutral would probably trigger a German takeover.
IIRC Weygand is believed to have met a Free French representative IOTL. He later denied it but other evidence seemed to confirm that he had. I will try and track down details when I get a chance.
When he met the American representative once he said something of the order of "land with 500k troops, 3500 planes and 2000 tanks and I'm in".
Also, does anyone know what the newspapers were like in say Malaya in 1941? Presumably tightly controlled due to war time, but would they report on this kind of stuff in great detail/similar way to UK/NZ etc?
Which is why the M.Ps have been put on high alert. (Not sure who stops the M.Ps from doing a little "Liberating" though).
Quis custodiet ipsos custodes? Why, the M.P.P.s of course. And who watches the M.P.P.s? Sorry, it's Ps all the way down.
probably to prevent that common soldiers loot to much, after all the officers need to be able to pick their nice things first (such as fine italian wine)
If the German and Italian Commission see anything going spare they will require it to go to them.
Ramp-Rat
Monthly Donor
Provided that the British retain the majority of Malaya and Singapore, after the initial Japanese assault. The British will remain very much on the defensive for the first half of 1942, however by the second half of the year, things will change. Not only will the situation in the Mediterranean have been resolved to the extent that the British, will be able to run convoys through the Med with only the area of the Sicilian narrows requiring a major escort. And thus both reducing the overall journey time, but also increasing the number of bottoms available to use. Again with Singapore, Java and Sumatra in British and Dutch control, the Indian Ocean will other than for troop convoys, be essentially a free shipping area, enabling ships once they have transited the Suez Canal, to disperse and sail independently. Which will improve the efficiency and flexibility of shipping, and enable some much needed local trade to take place. Islands such as Mauritius, had significant problems, the lack of shipping to remove the principal export, or import food, plus inflation caused major hardship. ITTL, with more shipping available, things while tough shouldn’t be so dire. While the British will be able to run some supplies into the besieged American forces, their principal efforts will be directed towards eliminating as much as is possible of the Japanese Naval forces in the South China Sea. In addition the Americans have the problem that other than food and medical supplies, there is very little that the British posses that the Americans require to continue their resistance. And despite what the Americans want, the British are going to do what is best for Britain and the Empire, and that is probably to use their assets to defeat the Japanese.
Something to remember, for the British this is the third year of the war, and as can be seen by the recent post in regards to the 8th armoured devision. Britain is now coming into its full measure in regards to production, the slack in the system has been taken up, and the majority of the obstacles have been resolved. While at the start of 42, the British will be hard pressed for resources,thanks to the improvements in North Africa, this mean that by mid year the British will have the majority of the resources that they need. If not the most up to date, especially in tanks or aircraft, given how far behind the rest of the world, the Japanese are in most technology, equipment that is becoming obsolete in the European theatre, will still be relevant in the Far East and Pacific. IOTL the Matilda tank was right up until the end of the war superior to any tank that the Japanese possessed. While second rate aircraft like the Vultee Vengeance, was effective in Burma, even though it was regarded as obsolete anywhere else. As for the speculation that the new 8th armoured devision might be sent to the Far East, I for one seriously doubt that, as in nether Malaya, Singapore or the DEI, is the local infrastructure sufficient to support a heavy armoured force. Far better to strip the 7th armoured devision of all its obsolete equipment, and send that East, before sending the experienced troops home to be the base for two new armoured devisions. And use the obsolete by European standards equipment to form an Indian armoured brigade.
RR.
Something to remember, for the British this is the third year of the war, and as can be seen by the recent post in regards to the 8th armoured devision. Britain is now coming into its full measure in regards to production, the slack in the system has been taken up, and the majority of the obstacles have been resolved. While at the start of 42, the British will be hard pressed for resources,thanks to the improvements in North Africa, this mean that by mid year the British will have the majority of the resources that they need. If not the most up to date, especially in tanks or aircraft, given how far behind the rest of the world, the Japanese are in most technology, equipment that is becoming obsolete in the European theatre, will still be relevant in the Far East and Pacific. IOTL the Matilda tank was right up until the end of the war superior to any tank that the Japanese possessed. While second rate aircraft like the Vultee Vengeance, was effective in Burma, even though it was regarded as obsolete anywhere else. As for the speculation that the new 8th armoured devision might be sent to the Far East, I for one seriously doubt that, as in nether Malaya, Singapore or the DEI, is the local infrastructure sufficient to support a heavy armoured force. Far better to strip the 7th armoured devision of all its obsolete equipment, and send that East, before sending the experienced troops home to be the base for two new armoured devisions. And use the obsolete by European standards equipment to form an Indian armoured brigade.
RR.
marathag
Banned
The Marines used the SBD, with worse specifications thru the last year of the War.
The Army gave up on their version of it, the A-24, in mid 1942, with most ending up a hacks.
The Commonwealth forces had good experience with their Vultees.
I think a big factor here is Weygand. If he jumps into the allied camp as soon as (or soon after) Hitler declares war on the USA, that opens the Mediterranean a lot sooner.
If Weygand jumps Case Anton happens.
If Anton is triggered by Weygand perhaps the French have enough warning for some of the fleet in Toulon to make a run for it if they choose to.