Sir John Valentine Carden Survives. Part 2.

6 December 1941. London, England.
6 December 1941. London, England.

The bells of churches throughout the land pealed in response to the Italian surrender of Libya. Silenced at the beginning of the war, except to be used to warn of parachute attacks, now they rang for victory in Africa. The end of both Italian North and East Africa had been a victory of the Empire’s arms. British, Australian, New Zealanders, South Africans, Indians, Kenyans, Nigerians, Sudanese, men from Gold Coast, Somaliland, Northern and Southern Rhodesia, Uganda and Nysaland had all played a part in the victory.

Generals Wavell and O’Connor were hailed in the newspapers and newsreels as the heroes of the hour. A nation which had seen its armed forces forced to withdraw from Norway, France, Belgium and Greece now had an unquestionable victory. Prime Minister Churchill’s speech to the House of Commons was recorded later to be broadcast on the BBC.

In private, the telephone conversation offering congratulations from President Roosevelt, was for the Prime Minister a great boost. After the fall of France, the possibility of a British capitulation had been greatly feared in Washington DC, and almost expected by some. The Lend Lease agreement, the bases for destroyers, the Tizzard Mission had all been matters of desperation. The fact that, not only had Britain stood firm, but knocked the Italians (and Germans) out of Africa had changed quite a few minds in Washington DC.

The Soviet Union was still holding the line at Moscow and Leningrad. Not just holding the line, word of a counterattack beginning would hopefully push the Germans back. Getting British and American support to Stalin would be a major headache, but so far, the first few Arctic convoys had been successful, without loss.

The situation in North Africa was still tense. General De Gaulle was up in arms about the American ‘interference’ in French affairs. Catroux’s negotiations with Weygand, which the Americans had enabled, included the idea that Weygand, not De Gaulle would be the face of Free France, especially as Governor-General of Algeria. Both Churchill and Roosevelt weren’t unhappy that De Gaulle wasn’t happy. So far, with the failure at Dakar and the lack of enthusiasm from most French colonies to switch sides, perhaps he wasn’t really the right man for the job.

Weyand and de Lattre had managed to successfully solve the problem with the Italian and German units crossing the border. The Italian troops had been detained as deserters until clarification could be obtained from Rome. The Germans, with their personal arms, were immediately being taken to the port of Sfax. There they would been loaded onto ships supplied by the French, and with British collusion, sail for Marseille unmolested. Weygand asked that no British or ‘Free French’ troops enter Tunisia. He hoped to persuade Vichy that, like Syria, French North Africa would remain non-belligerent in the ongoing conflict. That was something that Roosevelt and Churchill could live with, at least in the meantime. Whether Hitler could live with it remained to be seen.

The discussion turned to the situation in the Pacific. The intelligence that a Japanese attack to gain the oil reserves of the Dutch East Indies was becoming increasingly undeniable. Churchill alerted Roosevelt that the War Office had ordered all British and Empire forces in the Far East to the highest state of alert. It was becoming clear that Japan wouldn’t need another Marco Polo Bridge incident to take action. Churchill also informed Roosevelt of what ACM Brooke-Popham’s instructions were. If he had information of a Japanese expedition approaching with the apparent intention on landing on the Kra Isthmus, or if the Japanese violated any other part of Thailand, then, without reference to the War Office, he could implement Operation Matador (the invasion of Thailand). He had also been made aware that this would certainly mean war with Japan, and therefore to tread carefully.

The Admiralty had since informed the War Cabinet that they knew that at least one Japanese convoy was sailing towards the Kra Isthmus. Brooke-Popham had expressed to Admiral Philips that he had no authority to order attack on a Japanese expedition at sea until the Japanese had committed some definite hostile act. Philips understood Brooke-Popham’s hesitation, he didn’t want to be remembered as the man who started a war with Japan. Philip’s had been informed that one of the Catalinas on a reconnaissance mission had failed to return to base. This could be the result of a hostile act, or just bad luck. An Australian crewed Hudson had reported being fired upon by Japanese ships, and that for Philips was evidence enough.

Admiral Philips informed the Admiralty, and Churchill informed Roosevelt, that he had given orders to all China Station assets, including the Dutch submarine shadowing one of the convoys, that if the Japanese approached within 30 miles of the coast, then they were to be considered hostile and to initiate action against them. Roosevelt expressed surprise that Philips had done this without the explicit consent of Brooke-Popham, his Commander-in-Chief. Churchill made some remark about the Nelson legacy. He also thanked Roosevelt that Admiral Hart had ordered four of his destroyers at Balikpapan in Borneo to join Philip’s force. Roosevelt already knew that the meeting between Hart and Philips had ended abruptly, as American reconnaissance aircraft had sighted a large Japanese convoy on its way from Camranh Bay towards the Gulf of Siam. War seemed inevitable, it was just a question of where and when it would start.
 
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I very much doubt that IJN would try and PH Singapore, that is an insanely risky proposition. Unlike Pearl Harbor or Colombo strikes, there is no place to hide, at least when compared to Pacific and Indian Oceans.

Not to mention, that there is pretty much only one way to get to it (unless DEI is under Japanese occupation), and you not only have to contend with submarines (either as pickets and/or on patrol), surface units(count fishing boats/yachts as well), minefields, and civilian observers, but also the fact there are going to be air patrols present.
Maybe far from the top of the line aircraft, but it matters little if IJN units are reported by Vildebeast, Blenheim or a Fulmar, as long as they are reported. The RN also (unless I am mistaken) flies its aircraft off before entering port, so that would also be a decent number of aircraft capable of both Scouting and Strike missions. Ark Royal came in with Fulmars and Swordfish onboard, and considering the general lack of aircraft in the area, they are going to be Godsend (along with pilots and perhaps ground crews).

Japanese were "optimistic" to say the least (considering the odds, they had to be), but not even they are that arrogant. And this is not going to happen in the opening stages of the war, as USN is its primary opponent, and even if RN does receive reinforcements, IJN is only going to get one shot at PH and it simply can not have US controlled Phillippines between Home Isles and DEI oilfields.
It should also be noted what the IJN was doing with KB IOTL and their IOTL cooperation with IJA. And when things start to go sideways in Malaya, IJN is not going to touch that mess with a barge pole, not with reinforcements of all kinds that are going to be dispatched once shooting war starts.
 
Allan,

When you have a moment could you elaborate on the numbers of German and Italian troops who made their way to Tunisia (to be interred as deserters or shipped back to Marseille)? Also if possible, an overview of the heavy equipment that FNA will have seized as I assume that would not be inconsequential.

Thanks so much, Matthew.
 
Smart by Weyand and de Lattre they get to stay neutral for now and probably earn some favour with the Axis to boot.

Also looks like the British subs are hunting the Japanese ships as well that will be an unpleasant suprise for their convoys since the IJN sucks at damage control as much as ASW.
 
Smart by Weyand and de Lattre they get to stay neutral for now and probably earn some favour with the Axis to boot.

Also looks like the British subs are hunting the Japanese ships as well that will be an unpleasant suprise for their convoys since the IJN sucks at damage control as much as ASW.
The Silent Service won't be going for the warships but the transports they're escorting.
 
Still though Weyand and de Lattre made out a lot better than I thought they would and if they live and Case Anton goes into effect they are in a pretty strong postion.

While Charlie Gaul is in a weaker one given he was just ignored. Will be fun if ITTL he is reduced to a minor figure compared to OTL.
 
Probably the other way around. The Nazis can make up any flimsy fabrication they like to justify going after France, including French colonies being attacked by the allies.
They have the whip hand certainly and have no need to justify their decisions but they had a reason for the armistice deal with the French. It all depends upon how valuable that reason is. Once Africa is no longer in Vichy hands then the reason disappears and Vichy becomes a liability not an opportunity. They may as well then remove the threat, take the Mediterranean coast and loot France freely. Until then they are occupying French North Africa and West Africa by proxy at no significant cost, denying it to the Commonwealth, and having half of France administered for them whilst being able to squeeze resources from both.
 
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They have the whip hand certainly and have no need to justify their decisions but they had a reason for the armistice deal with the French. It all depends upon how valuable that reason is. Once Africa is no longer in Vichy hands then the reason disappears and Vichy becomes a liability not an opportunity. They may as well remove the threat, take the Mediterranean coast and loot France freely. Until then they are occupying French North Africa and West Africa by proxy at no significant cost, denying it to the Commonwealth, and having half of France administered for them whilst being able to squeeze resources from both.
I think this would depend as well is if the French Goverment in Vichy or its colonies is believed to be collaborating with the British in which case Hitler may look to put the screws to them.
 
How exactly is the Dutch submarine shadowing the convoy.

Undersea? If so it will run out of battery very soon and probably be outsped.

On the surface? The Japanese will soon know.
 
How exactly is the Dutch submarine shadowing the convoy.

Undersea? If so it will run out of battery very soon and probably be outsped.

On the surface? The Japanese will soon know.
snorkel up, several of the dutch submarines were equipped with them
 

Mark1878

Donor
How exactly is the Dutch submarine shadowing the convoy.

Undersea? If so it will run out of battery very soon and probably be outsped.

On the surface? The Japanese will soon know.
The Dutch had snorkels. Well sort of.

From wikipedia I see some escaped to England and fought in the Med and later the Pacific, - so have these got out of the Med a year early?


Ah that was O-19 As for O-20 It was in Singapore on early December 41 in OTL so not much different.
 
Even still you are talking about max speeds of 8-10 knots.
First, its going to be shadowing a convoy of transports , its probably only doing 8kts at most. Second as its not yet war , its probably going pretty much straight so night sprints on the surface can be used to help.
 
I doubt it, the Armistice Commission observers in North Africa would have kept a close eye on it. Restoring the Mareth Line would be an indication that FNA is planning to join the Free French.
Mareth Line protects Tunisia from Libya. Now that the British and their allies are in and control Libya, restoration of the Mareth Line would indicate Vichy France is preparing to defend against an attack by the British and their allies, which I can't see the Germans having a problem with...

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Okay, building it up twelve months earlier might have been frowned on, but within the last month or so, once an Italian collapse was on the cards, it might not have looked so problematic.
And now Vichy France could build up/reinforce the line as a gesture of 'look: we're neutrals, just defending ourselves'.
 
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How would the Mareth line hold up against British Armour if memory serves weren't the Vichy prevented from having anything like tanks and had restrictions placed in heavy kit?
 
Allan,

When you have a moment could you elaborate on the numbers of German and Italian troops who made their way to Tunisia (to be interred as deserters or shipped back to Marseille)? Also if possible, an overview of the heavy equipment that FNA will have seized as I assume that would not be inconsequential.

Thanks so much, Matthew.
To be completely honest, your guess would be as good as mine. The majority of the Italian army surrendered, so the troops to the west of Tripoli might have thought a trip through Tunis back to Rome would be better than the alternative. I would guess more Italian colonists etc would try their hand at the Tunisian border. So not huge numbers, but enough to ask Rome for instructions what to do with them. As for the remnant of Afrika Corps, I mentioned an air bridge taking out the useful skilled lot, especially Luftwaffe men. With the majority of the panzers beat, I would have thought maybe a three to five thousand German troops. Remember the 90th Light Division hasn't been sent TTL, so the DAK was the 5th Light Division and elements of 15 Pz Div, both of which have been severely handled. If I remember correctly they had already been rolled into one division. I was just thinking that technically they should have been surrendered as being under Italian command. However, depending on transport etc to get them to Tunisia, I think 5000 would be the upper number. But, as I said, your (or anyone's) guess is as good as mine.
As to heavy equipment, I doubt there would be much, PzIIs at most, maybe some towed artillery, unless the German commander had sent off all his rear echelon from the Tripoli area early to avoid the rush, I don't think the French would gain much.
Allan
 
How would the Mareth line hold up against British Armour if memory serves weren't the Vichy prevented from having anything like tanks and had restrictions placed in heavy kit?
They hid a bunch of weapons in NA, some 75mm batteries, some AMD 178s armoured cars. Tunisia alone had a few batteries and 20 AMDs in Nov 1942.
 
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