Russia Resurgent - A TL
- Thread starter Sarthak
- Start date
Damn. I bet Russia would easily forget about tatars and Ukrainians in Crimea. They are still infected with their imperial disease as OTL.
@Sarthak Bikram Panta
Donbass isn't out of picture unfortunately. By 2000 local population widely despised and hated Ukrainians and Ukrainian state, thinking that Donbass actually carries entire Ukrainian economics on their own hands. Also, they maniacally loved Russia. Trust me, I'm was born here in 2001, and lived until 2015.
Russia will come for Donbass and the rest of Ukraine. Question is when, not will they or no.
@Whiteshore This is a dark TL for me. Much more economically stronger Russia and Baltics out of NATO while Belarus is annexed? Damn, Ukraine will not survive TTL-2014. Also this Russia as aggressive as OTL.
@Sarthak Bikram Panta
Donbass isn't out of picture unfortunately. By 2000 local population widely despised and hated Ukrainians and Ukrainian state, thinking that Donbass actually carries entire Ukrainian economics on their own hands. Also, they maniacally loved Russia. Trust me, I'm was born here in 2001, and lived until 2015.
Russia will come for Donbass and the rest of Ukraine. Question is when, not will they or no.
@Whiteshore This is a dark TL for me. Much more economically stronger Russia and Baltics out of NATO while Belarus is annexed? Damn, Ukraine will not survive TTL-2014. Also this Russia as aggressive as OTL.
Hm, well not exactly. I am trying to make for Russia and Ukraine become like the twin brothers of the alliance ITTL, with better relations and a pretty strong alliance. Though how i get to it, makes Ukraine have a pretty tumultuous future yes.
Will we have yearly or bi-yearly updates or will it mostly be decades or five years, with major activities covered in detail?
Bi-yearly for particularly interesting years. Normal years 1 chapter, and for conflicts, well it will be divided into months and weeks .
Apart from me feeling pained at the consistent India bashing and it always getting the short end of the stick and always holding the idiot ball, in all your TLs, nothing much.
Seemingly no incident regarding Nagorno-Karabakh has taken place. Expecting India to back whichever side Russia opposes, just on principle. About China, Russia, be ready to be used.
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...I honestly don't see it. More conventional nationalist parties like People's Movement and the Ukrainian National Party are still there, and in 2002 Svoboda wasn't even the largest far-right party in Ukraine.
That said, a pro-Western candidate winning in 2004 isn't improbable, since the purchase of Crimea will lower the pro-Russian popular vote percentage and won't sell well with the rest of the populace that aren't actively opposed to Kuchma.
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Good timeline so far, looking forward to more.
Being from Serbia I feel monarchic revival never had a real shot but it is not a big deal. Also I kind of feel bad that relationship with India went south. But choosing between India on one side and China and Pakistan on the other... probably a smart choice. Though how trustworthy China is given its mixed history with Russia, their desire to go to the top and their territorial pretensions on the Far East is questionable indeed. Also strange that Estonia is the friendliest to Russia ITTL and Latvia the least, when I always felt it was the reverse. But I am far from an expert in this region so could well be wrong.
Improving you spelling and making the timeline cleaner is also always a good idea and a way to get more readers. I personally don't mind it much, I care about the content, but many misguided souls do
All in all an interesting TL, keep it up.
Being from Serbia I feel monarchic revival never had a real shot but it is not a big deal. Also I kind of feel bad that relationship with India went south. But choosing between India on one side and China and Pakistan on the other... probably a smart choice. Though how trustworthy China is given its mixed history with Russia, their desire to go to the top and their territorial pretensions on the Far East is questionable indeed. Also strange that Estonia is the friendliest to Russia ITTL and Latvia the least, when I always felt it was the reverse. But I am far from an expert in this region so could well be wrong.
Improving you spelling and making the timeline cleaner is also always a good idea and a way to get more readers. I personally don't mind it much, I care about the content, but many misguided souls do
All in all an interesting TL, keep it up.
Chapter 10; the Prelude to War.
Chapter 10
***
2002 (2nd Half)
***
July began with the somber implementation of the Rome Statute, which finally established the International Court of Justice. The Russian Federation had been a signatory of the Rome Statute, and Russia officially entered the International Court of Justice as a member the very same day on July 1st.
The International Court of Justice.
Meanwhile, the Russian government was currently concentrating their efforts in the development of the fifth generation stealth warplane, the SM-Boggrom, as favorable reports were coming in from the SM aerospace industries. The completion of this project would be the signature of Russia’s return to the forefront of the race for military air dominance.
Regarding the military however, Russia was becoming increasingly wary of the American War in Afghanistan as some of the fighting occasionally spilled over into Tajikistan and the Central Asian States, where Russian troops based in these countries would have to break the fighting up. This meant that military tensions were flaring up not just between the Russians and Taliban, but tensions were also being raised between Russia and the NATO-coalition troops in Afghanistan, as aerial bombing raids into Afghanistan on part of Russia became very risky business as NATO and Russian fighters and bombers looked at each other warily. This lack of trust made ground operations on both sides fragmented and because of this Russia on July 3rd, stated that they would not give the go-ahead for any ground military mission in Afghanistan to fight the Taliban. This was partially fueled by the fear that NATO and Russian troops would open fire at each other and create an international diplomatic crisis, which was something that Russia could not afford at all during this time.
Russian Bombs falling onto a Taliban Base in Afghanistan.
However another important event was going on in the world elsewhere. The African Unity Organization was dissolved and replaced by the African Union on July 9th. This was welcomed by the Russian government and Yavlinsky began talks with the African Union regarding new economic relations between Russia and Africa through third party mediums. A trade treaty was currently in the making as Russia sought to expand upon its economic recovery progress.
African Union Logo
This was a success……for the African Union. The African Union managed to secure loads of economical deals with Russia regarding trade and commercial activities, however the Russians also got imposed with a heavy tariff system, which made Russia’s trading with the African Union hurt by a good margin. Russia still made profits, however not at the level that the Russian government liked nor wanted. However for now this was reluctantly accepted by the Russian government and the Russian economic brass as they had something bigger to focus on to at the current time.
The Republic of Georgia had been an extremely tenuous place in terms of stability after their independence and the breakup of the Soviet Union. However the former Communist secretary of Georgia, Eduard Shevardnadze had been able to muddle on with the political crisis and managed to hold on to power. However due to increased military actions in Georgia in the regions of South Ossetia and Abkhazia which were all repelled by Russian peacemaking troops, the Georgian population had gotten extremely angry and restless. This made Shevardnadze’s popularity in the country which was already tenuous as it was, plummet to rock bottom. On July 27th, the Georgian Revolution began as a riot began in Tbisili, and Shevardnadze’s police guard in Tbisili opened fire. This led to open hostilities between the government and many of the people and populace of Georgia. Even though Shevardnadze himself hadn’t been blame for the incident mostly due to the fact that he had warned not to do anything of the kind, however most of the people blamed him for the incident and the corruption, the military pressure all exploded in Georgia, and under the leadership of young Georgian activist Mikheil Saakashvili took to the streets of Tbisili demanding that the current government of Georgia resign and allow for elections to be held so that the Georgian nation could ‘prosper’.
On July 31st, things came to a head, as Shevardnadze resigned, however the government remained frozen as the cabinet became a mess of insults being thrown at each other after the president resigned and in georgia anarchy reigned. Georgian Major General Zaza Gogova then united with Saakashvili to create a united front against the remainder of the governmental forces as the 33rd Regiment of the Georgian Army loyal to Zaza Gogova stormed the city of Tbisili itself and captured the city mostly bloodlessly as the regiment peacefully took control of the city and allowed paramilitary forces who had declared allegiance to Saakashvili to disarm the cabinet and arrested them
Zaza Gogova
However in many parts of Georgia, this was not accepted by the governmental forces, and the Georgian Revolution officially became the Georgian Civil War as on August 5th, the new government formed by Saakashvili declared the governmental forces to be ‘terrorists’ and ‘insurgents’ that were against the ‘Georgian State’. Whilst this was going on, the new government of Georgia renamed the military to the Georgian Armed Forces and under Major General Zaza Gogova started to reform and restructure the military to take on the old loyalist troops now fighting against the new government in the countryside and few prominent Georgian cities and towns.
Factions in the Georgian Civil War:-
Government under Saakashvili - Yellow
Old Loyalist Regime Forces - Violet
South Ossetians - Blue
Abkhazians - Lime Green.
All of this situation made the Georgian assaults on Abkhazia and South Ossetia fall to a grounding halt. However this was now becoming a crisis and on August 8th, the Russian Duma convened in an emergency meeting on the situation in Georgia and what to do about it. The Russian government under Yavlinsky initially wished for non-intervention, however this could not be the case as on August 10th, a Georgian speedbout loyal to the old regime fired upon a trawler of Russian fishermen by mistake and killed around 6 Russian fishermen. This was agitating news to the Russians as the Dagestani and North Ossetians in Russia started to agitate for the Russians to intervene in Georgia and conduct a somewhat peaceful regime change.
Finally on August 18th, the Russian government gave the go ahead signal for the Russian 58th Army to mobilize as the Georgian Armed Forces took control of the city of Borjomi which had been under control of the old loyalists or as they now called themselves, the Old Guard Forces.
The Russian 58th Army consisted of:-
42nd Motor Rifle Division
19th Motor Rifle Division
205th Mechanized Rifle Brigade
136th Guards Rifle Brigade
135th Rifle regiment
291st Artillery Regiment
943rd Multiple Rocket Launcher Regiment
1128th Anti-Tank regiment
67th Separate Anti-aircraft Rocket Brigade
487th Separate Helicopter Regiment
11th Engineer Regiment
234th Signals Brigade
22nd Regiment of Electronic warfare
58th Army, Order of Battle.
On August 27th, the Russian government officially issued an ultimatum to Georgia citing the destruction and killing of Russian fishermen and formally issued a statement stating that ‘All Hostilities in Georgia, between the Abkhazians, South Ossetians, Georgian Factions must stop by August 30th, with a ceasefire agreement by which time, the Russian government shall act as a mediator between all factions involved.’
This ultimatum was seen as ludicrous in Georgia by all sides, as giving up in face of Russian pressure would make sure to make it known to the Georgian population that their leaders were weaklings. In the global scenario however this ultimatum was viewed with good light, as the countries of Turkey, Greece, Romania and Bulgaria were already suffering from a mild refugee crisis already.
The ultimatum was left unanswered as the Georgians continued to massacre each other.
On September 5th, the 58th Army of the Russians finally moved into Georgia fighting all combatants to restore order.
Russians troops at the border before the invasion of Georgia.
And thus the Russian Intervention in Georgia Began.
***
***
2002 (2nd Half)
***
July began with the somber implementation of the Rome Statute, which finally established the International Court of Justice. The Russian Federation had been a signatory of the Rome Statute, and Russia officially entered the International Court of Justice as a member the very same day on July 1st.
The International Court of Justice.
Meanwhile, the Russian government was currently concentrating their efforts in the development of the fifth generation stealth warplane, the SM-Boggrom, as favorable reports were coming in from the SM aerospace industries. The completion of this project would be the signature of Russia’s return to the forefront of the race for military air dominance.
Regarding the military however, Russia was becoming increasingly wary of the American War in Afghanistan as some of the fighting occasionally spilled over into Tajikistan and the Central Asian States, where Russian troops based in these countries would have to break the fighting up. This meant that military tensions were flaring up not just between the Russians and Taliban, but tensions were also being raised between Russia and the NATO-coalition troops in Afghanistan, as aerial bombing raids into Afghanistan on part of Russia became very risky business as NATO and Russian fighters and bombers looked at each other warily. This lack of trust made ground operations on both sides fragmented and because of this Russia on July 3rd, stated that they would not give the go-ahead for any ground military mission in Afghanistan to fight the Taliban. This was partially fueled by the fear that NATO and Russian troops would open fire at each other and create an international diplomatic crisis, which was something that Russia could not afford at all during this time.
Russian Bombs falling onto a Taliban Base in Afghanistan.
However another important event was going on in the world elsewhere. The African Unity Organization was dissolved and replaced by the African Union on July 9th. This was welcomed by the Russian government and Yavlinsky began talks with the African Union regarding new economic relations between Russia and Africa through third party mediums. A trade treaty was currently in the making as Russia sought to expand upon its economic recovery progress.
African Union Logo
This was a success……for the African Union. The African Union managed to secure loads of economical deals with Russia regarding trade and commercial activities, however the Russians also got imposed with a heavy tariff system, which made Russia’s trading with the African Union hurt by a good margin. Russia still made profits, however not at the level that the Russian government liked nor wanted. However for now this was reluctantly accepted by the Russian government and the Russian economic brass as they had something bigger to focus on to at the current time.
The Republic of Georgia had been an extremely tenuous place in terms of stability after their independence and the breakup of the Soviet Union. However the former Communist secretary of Georgia, Eduard Shevardnadze had been able to muddle on with the political crisis and managed to hold on to power. However due to increased military actions in Georgia in the regions of South Ossetia and Abkhazia which were all repelled by Russian peacemaking troops, the Georgian population had gotten extremely angry and restless. This made Shevardnadze’s popularity in the country which was already tenuous as it was, plummet to rock bottom. On July 27th, the Georgian Revolution began as a riot began in Tbisili, and Shevardnadze’s police guard in Tbisili opened fire. This led to open hostilities between the government and many of the people and populace of Georgia. Even though Shevardnadze himself hadn’t been blame for the incident mostly due to the fact that he had warned not to do anything of the kind, however most of the people blamed him for the incident and the corruption, the military pressure all exploded in Georgia, and under the leadership of young Georgian activist Mikheil Saakashvili took to the streets of Tbisili demanding that the current government of Georgia resign and allow for elections to be held so that the Georgian nation could ‘prosper’.
On July 31st, things came to a head, as Shevardnadze resigned, however the government remained frozen as the cabinet became a mess of insults being thrown at each other after the president resigned and in georgia anarchy reigned. Georgian Major General Zaza Gogova then united with Saakashvili to create a united front against the remainder of the governmental forces as the 33rd Regiment of the Georgian Army loyal to Zaza Gogova stormed the city of Tbisili itself and captured the city mostly bloodlessly as the regiment peacefully took control of the city and allowed paramilitary forces who had declared allegiance to Saakashvili to disarm the cabinet and arrested them
Zaza Gogova
However in many parts of Georgia, this was not accepted by the governmental forces, and the Georgian Revolution officially became the Georgian Civil War as on August 5th, the new government formed by Saakashvili declared the governmental forces to be ‘terrorists’ and ‘insurgents’ that were against the ‘Georgian State’. Whilst this was going on, the new government of Georgia renamed the military to the Georgian Armed Forces and under Major General Zaza Gogova started to reform and restructure the military to take on the old loyalist troops now fighting against the new government in the countryside and few prominent Georgian cities and towns.
Factions in the Georgian Civil War:-
Government under Saakashvili - Yellow
Old Loyalist Regime Forces - Violet
South Ossetians - Blue
Abkhazians - Lime Green.
All of this situation made the Georgian assaults on Abkhazia and South Ossetia fall to a grounding halt. However this was now becoming a crisis and on August 8th, the Russian Duma convened in an emergency meeting on the situation in Georgia and what to do about it. The Russian government under Yavlinsky initially wished for non-intervention, however this could not be the case as on August 10th, a Georgian speedbout loyal to the old regime fired upon a trawler of Russian fishermen by mistake and killed around 6 Russian fishermen. This was agitating news to the Russians as the Dagestani and North Ossetians in Russia started to agitate for the Russians to intervene in Georgia and conduct a somewhat peaceful regime change.
Finally on August 18th, the Russian government gave the go ahead signal for the Russian 58th Army to mobilize as the Georgian Armed Forces took control of the city of Borjomi which had been under control of the old loyalists or as they now called themselves, the Old Guard Forces.
The Russian 58th Army consisted of:-
42nd Motor Rifle Division
19th Motor Rifle Division
205th Mechanized Rifle Brigade
136th Guards Rifle Brigade
135th Rifle regiment
291st Artillery Regiment
943rd Multiple Rocket Launcher Regiment
1128th Anti-Tank regiment
67th Separate Anti-aircraft Rocket Brigade
487th Separate Helicopter Regiment
11th Engineer Regiment
234th Signals Brigade
22nd Regiment of Electronic warfare
58th Army, Order of Battle.
On August 27th, the Russian government officially issued an ultimatum to Georgia citing the destruction and killing of Russian fishermen and formally issued a statement stating that ‘All Hostilities in Georgia, between the Abkhazians, South Ossetians, Georgian Factions must stop by August 30th, with a ceasefire agreement by which time, the Russian government shall act as a mediator between all factions involved.’
This ultimatum was seen as ludicrous in Georgia by all sides, as giving up in face of Russian pressure would make sure to make it known to the Georgian population that their leaders were weaklings. In the global scenario however this ultimatum was viewed with good light, as the countries of Turkey, Greece, Romania and Bulgaria were already suffering from a mild refugee crisis already.
The ultimatum was left unanswered as the Georgians continued to massacre each other.
On September 5th, the 58th Army of the Russians finally moved into Georgia fighting all combatants to restore order.
Russians troops at the border before the invasion of Georgia.
And thus the Russian Intervention in Georgia Began.
***
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