Why the Chinese play cricket (The Pax Imperialis)

[Miss Construction]

Yes the PA is hitting hard and fast because they know as soon as those 80 divisions in India come into play gaining ground is going to be damn hard. A lot still hinges on Canada, currently over 25% are tied down there (plus more in the Caribbean).

Both sides have heartlands which are relatively immune to attack. The CW can hit the Caribbean coast and the PA can hit Australasia, but Japan, the US east and west coasts, the British Isles, Africa and India are all secure. I can't see that changing.

You also have to remember the CW can't bring their full power to bear. They simply can not ignore the European War. The British Isles have to be defended and the Mediterranean has to be kept open. But the PA is not without its own issues. Canada will need to be garrisoned and Pacific shipping protected. A big part of the PA's Central Pacific drive is to secure a barrier to CW subs, they easily have the range to operate there from Australia.

This is going to turn into a war of attrition and it's going to go to whoever doesn't blink.

 

[StormStar]

Then it’s down to whoever doesn’t blink. The PA can’t win a war of attrition against a fully industrialised, economically stable, political and logistics unified superpower which is only nation to get through the Great Depression with little issue.

 

[Miss Construction]

Then it’s down to whoever doesn’t blink. The PA can’t win a war of attrition against a fully industrialised, economically stable, political and logistics unified superpower which is only nation to get through the Great Depression with little issue.

It's not manpower losses which will decide this war, it's cost. And in that regard the CW is far more sensitive than the PA. The war comes down to how many dollars or pounds have to be spent on it.

 

[StormStar]

It's not manpower losses which will decide this war, it's cost. And in that regard the CW is far more sensitive than the PA. The war comes down to how many dollars or pounds have to be spent on it.

Wasn’t thinking Manpower, both are about equally match in total population numbers with the PA having an edge. I was thinking in the monetary and resource terms in which the CW far out stripes the PA.

The British Empire didn’t nearly bankrupted itself in WW1 and while it did offer loans it also didn’t suffer the problem OTL with German raids attacking Industrial centres. Since the industrialisation of the rest of the Empire and the transformation it’s government into the CW it’s coffers have mostly expanded due to production output and taxation.

While the CW be more sensitive to the amount of resources it want to used it can use much more than the PA.

 

[Miss Construction]

I thought I should clarify the position of the US economy. You have to go right back to the very start to do this. In the period 1870 to 1915 there was a drop off in British investment in the US. Small at first but it built up as the British concentrated on developing the Dominions and India. So come the Great War, the US economy was noticeably smaller than the OTL.

Then you have the Great War. This has had a profound effect. The US didn't get the massive cash injection of the OTL. It's economy did grow due its own war production but it was mostly self funded, with a side order of money from London. Yrs the US has war debts too, nowhere on the level of the rest of the Entente, but still not insignificant. Another effect of the GW was a loss of foreign markets to the CW.

There was a depression in the US post war but it was short due to the "nation fit for heroes" (NFFH) program which actually lead to a boom.

This brings us to the Great Depression. Going into it the US is still noticeably behind the OTL. The Wall Street crash was about the same as the OTL. But there's a big difference in the US. A significant number of the New Deal reforms are already there due to the NFFH program. Exports also make up a smaller part of the economy. This is why the smaller and later ND worked about as well as in the OTL.

So going into the TP war, the US economy is still smaller and has not fully recovered from the Depression but is still the second largest economy in the world with the added advantage of foreign trade being less significant. It also now gets the bonus of Entente war orders, at least in the early stages before it has to go to total war.

 

[Miss Construction]

This is the TTL ranking of GNP

1) CW £358.7 billion ($2,152.2)
2) US £179.5 billion ($1,077)
3) Russia £82.5 billion ($495)
4) Italy £59.3 billion ($357)
5) Japan £49.5 billion ($297)
6) Germany £41.3 billion ($247.8)
7) Fance £36.3 billion ($217.8)
8) Poland £33 billion ($198)
9) Gaige China £24.8 billion ($148.8)
10) Yao China £8.2 billion ($49.2)
11) Netherlands £4 billion ($24)
12) Nationalist Spain £2 billion ($12)
13) Czech Republic £1.8 billion ($10.8)
14) Romania £1.6 billion ($9.6)
15) Austria £1.5 billion ($9)
16) Greece £1.5 billion ($9)
17) Hungary £1.4 billion (8.4)
18) Serbia £1.3 billion ($7.8)
19) Chile £1.2 billion ($7.2)
20) Bulgaria £1 billion ($6)
21) Portugal £0.9 billion ($5.4)
22) Slovakia £0.7 billion ($4.2)
23) Wallachia £0.6 billion ($3.6)
24) Republican Spain £0.5 billion ($3)
25) Lithuania £0.4 billion ($2.4)
26) Croatia £0.4 billion ($2.4)
27) Peru £0.4 billion ($2.4)
28) Bolivia £0.3 billion ($1.8)
29) Entente Turkey £0.3 billion ($1.8)
30) OTO Turkey £0.3 billion ($1.8)
31) Latvia £0.3 billion ($1.8)
32) Guatemala £0.2 billion ($1.2)
23) Honduras £0.2 billion ($1.2)
34) Slovenia £0.2 billion ($1.2)
35) Estonia £0.2 billion ($1.2)

Notes
A) The Gaige are about to lose £16.5 billion of their GNP of which the Japanese will be able to mobilise £11 billion.
B) The Netherlands are about to lose £1.2 billion of which the PA will be able to mobilise £1 billion
C) The CW devotes £35.9 billion to supporting the WP

So
CW + allies = £339.8 billion ($2,038.8)
PA = £249.2 billion ($1,495.2)
WP = £180.6 billion ($1,083.6)
Entente = £123.5 billion ($741)

CW vs PA = 136.4% to CW
CW vs PA raw = 150.8% to CW
WP vs Entente = 146.2% to WP
WP vs Entente raw = 116.7% to WP


Or in percentage
CW + allies = 100 (CW represents 95%)
PA = 73.3
WP = 53.1
Entente = 36.3

And if the war goes global
CW + WP = £520.4 billion ($3,122.4)
PA + Entente = £372.7 billion ($2,236.2)

As percentage
CW + WP = 100
PA + Entente = 71.6

 

[Miss Construction]

Population of the major combatants in millions in 1941

India = 320 (but far better educated and industrialised)
UK =52
Canada = 18
South Africa = 14 (but only 25% European, so military manpower base 3.5 however a greater proportion of this can be mobilised)
Australia = 9
New Zealand = 2.5
Nigeria = 19 (noticeable improvement in education)
Burma = 14 (noticeable improvement in education)
Egypt = 14 (noticeable improvement in education)
Persia = 12.1
Afghanistan = 6.4
Malaya =5
British Caribbean = 4 (noticeable improvement in education, 1.5 in Jamaica, 1 in British Honduras)
Aden 1
Rest of the Empire = 40
Total = 530

Yao China = 280

Russia = 170.6

Gaige China = 150 (far better educated and industrialised)

US = 120
Philippines = 16 (noticeable improvement in education)
Cuba = 4.2 (noticeable improvement in education)
Puerto Rico = 0.5
Total = 140.7

France = 42
Indochina = 24.7
French North Africa = 16.9
French Equatorial Africa = 14.1
French West Africa = 13.4
Cameroon = 3.4
Total = 118.5

Japan = 73
Korea = 24.3
Formosa = 6.6
Total = 103.9

Netherlands = 8.7
East Indies = 69.4
Netherlands West Indies = 0.2
Total = 79.3

Germany = 61.3

Italy = 47. 3
Libya = 0.9
Somalia = 0.6
Eritrea = 0.3
Total = 49.1

Poland = 42.8

Notes
A) The Gaige China will lose 100 million
B) The CW will lose 18 million in Canada
C) Due inefficiencies an corruption the Yao Chinese can only mobilise 185 million of its population
D) France can only mobilise 15 million of their colonial population
E) The CW can only mobilise 12 million of its colonial population
F) The Netherlands can only mobilise 7 million of their colonial population
G) The US can can only mobilise 5 million of its colonial population
H) Japan can only mobilise 3 million of its colonial population
I) Italy can mobilise 1 million of its colonial population

Totals per alliance
CW + allies = 425.2
PA = 386
Entente = 227.6
WP = 152.4

As a percentage
CW + allies = 100
PA = 90.7
Entente = 53.5
WP = 35.8

And if the war goes global
CW + WP = 577.6
PA + Entente = 613.6

As a percentage
CW + WP = 100
PA + Entente = 106.2

(Rest of world =292.9, total population = 2,019.1)

 

[StormStar]

With the population and industrial advantage it’s still in CW favour and for the PA to win everything has to go right which is already not happening

 

[Orry]

One problem I think people have is divorcing the US and British Empire of OTL from their equivalents in TTL.

Thus the US must be the colossus of our WW2 and the Commonwealth must be a ramshackle Empire where most of its components long for freedom

 

[StormStar]

One problem I think people have is divorcing the US and British Empire of OTL from their equivalents in TTL.

Thus the US must be the colossus of our WW2 and the Commonwealth must be a ramshackle Empire where most of its components long for freedom

The truth is somewhat of a reverse.

 

[Miss Construction]

With the population and industrial advantage it’s still in CW favour and for the PA to win everything has to go right which is already not happening

The CW has a clear advantage, it's just not as big as everyone seemed to thing. The PA is no push over and the CW is far more sensitive to cost.

Another thing to note is the CW's allies only contribute a little under 6% to the total GNP of the alliance. The CW can easily do an uber lend lease and the necessary structure is already there because they're already doing it for the Gaige

 

[Miss Construction]

The truth is somewhat of a reverse.

Pretty much.

 

[Miss Construction]

One problem I think people have is divorcing the US and British Empire of OTL from their equivalents in TTL.

Thus the US must be the colossus of our WW2 and the Commonwealth must be a ramshackle Empire where most of its components long for freedom

The CW does still have to divert sufficient resources to keep a force of about 20% of the Entente strength in the British Isles and Mediterranean (primarily air and naval units). That will consume about 7% of their production. And the Dutch have to keep the bulk of their forces in Europe. The actual figures for the CW/PA taking that into account are more like about 100/80.

 

[Miss Construction]

Another minor change

October 1940: The US M3 General Lee tank enters service. Armed with a sponson mounted 3" howitzer for infantry support and a turret mounted Japanese high velocity 47mm gun for anti tank use, it is a major improvement over previous 37mm armed M2. The Japanese also adopt the tank as the Type 00 Chi-Ho to supersede the Chi-Ha, replacing the 3" howitzer with a 75mm field gun and original petrol engine with a diesel. The M2s are relegated to training, with 36 going to Japan while the the remaining 66 are retained by the US.

 

[Miss Construction]

~April to June 1941 (Transpacific War, China Theatre): The mountains are high and the Emperor far away.

April 1941: With the Gaige Hubei Army Group under General Sun Li-jen, consisting of the Gaige Fourth, Sixth, Ninth and CW Eighth Armies, falling back toward Chongqing, General Hisaichi Terauchi in command of the Japanese Northern Army Group detaches the Fifth and First Armoured Armies to drive on Shaoyang.

April 1941: The trapped CW Second and Gaige Third Armies launch a determined attack attempting to break out of the Shaoxing pocket.

April 1941: With the CW now bombing US cities, IJAAF, IJNAF and USAAC bombers, primarily B-17s from Formosa begin attacking Hong Kong and Guangzhou. These raids inflict heavy civilian casualties.

April 1941: General Renya Mutaguchi in command of the Japanese Central Army Group splits his forces. Seventh and Ninth Armies are in to hold the Gaige First and Tenth Armies in place at Nanchung, while the Fourth, Tenth and Third Armoured Armies are to launch an attack on the Fifth Army with the aim of out flanking and encircling the Gaige positions. His plan achieves rapid success as the Fifth Army disintegrates under the onslaught.

April 1941: Yao troops execute 431 CW and Gaige prisoners at Sashi.

April 1941: The Japanese force at Fuzhou is withdrawn, having suffered heavy losses.

April 1941: The Japanese halt the pursuit of the Gaige Tenth Army to concentrate on the destruction of the CW Second and Gaige Third Armies. This allows the Tenth Army, reinforced by CW troops, to form a defensive position around Qu Xian and Lishui.

April 1941: With situation rapidly deteriorating and having suffered massive equipment losses, the CW begins a massive supply operation across the Hengduan Mountains via the Burma Road. Included in the equipment shipped are Matilda tanks, making their first appearance in the Chinese theatre.

April 1941: The Gaige troops around Nanchung are encircled by Mutaguchi's Central Army Group, leaving nearly 400,000 Gaige troops isolated.

May 1941: Unable to break out of the Shaoxing pocket and with their supply situation desperate, the CW Second and Gaige Third Armies surrender yielding 300,000 prisoners to the Japanese.

May 1941: The Japanese Northern Army Group launches an attack to take Chongqing. Sun Li-jen's dug in Hubei Army Group however holds his position. The lightly armoured Japanese Chi-Ha medium and Ke-Ni light tanks suffer particularly heavy losses to Li-jen's Matilda tanks, with only the Chi-Ho's 75mm guns able to deal with them.

May 1941: With his troops demoralised and exhausted, Gaige General Lin Biao surrenders the Nanchung pocket. With the Gaige in full retreat, Mutaguchi hands these to his Yao allies. Some 30,000 will die on the march to Nanjing.

May 1941: The Japanese Fifth and First Armoured Armies under General Hitoshi Imamura take Shaoyang. The remaining Gaige defenders are now in full retreat and Imamura continues his drive into Guangxi province facing little resistance.

May 1941: Ji'an falls to Mutaguchi's rapidly advancing Central Army Group. By now there is little in the way of the Japanese advance on the Gaige capital.

May 1941: The Japanese Southern Army Group resumes its offensive, launching an attack on the Qu Xian/Lishui line. However the respite due to the reduction of the Shaoxing pocket has allowed the Tenth and newly formed Twelfth Armies to create a formidable defensive position.

June 1941: The Japanese breakthrough the Qu Xian/Lishui line. However both sides have suffered heavy casualties. Nonetheless, the Gaige Tenth and Twelfth Armies are forced to retreat back deep into Fujian province.

June 1941: The French agree to halt the flow of supplies to the Gaige through Indochina.

June 1941: Gangzhou falls to the Japanese. However the Central Army Group is now over extended and Mutaguchi calls a halt to the advance to allow his forces to rest and resupply.

June 1941: With resistance to the Japanese advance crumbling and the Pacific Alliance bombing of Guangzhou and Hong Kong growing increasingly effective, Gaige Grand Chancellor Zhou Enlai orders the Gaige fleet to withdraw to Singapore. Covered by Mustang fighters from Hainan and Malaya, the fleet under Admiral Chen Shaokuan makes are daring dash and despite suffering damage from Japanese aircraft based at Cam Ranh, arrives safely in Singapore. The ships are immediately dispatched to India for a refit to bring their radar and fire control to modern standards, along with improvements to their anti aircraft batteries.

June 1941: Guilin falls to the advancing Japanese Fifth and First Armoured Armies. By now, with the exception of Li-jen's forces around Chongqing, the demoralised Gaige forces are in full retreat, falling back into Guangdong province.

June 1941: With losses rapidly mounting, Terauchi calls off the attack on Chongqing. Sun Li-jen immediately begins further strengthening his position.

June 1941: Zhou Enlai orders the remaining Gaige and CW forces to fall back and concentrate on the defence of Guangdong.

 

[Miss Construction]

Note ITTL, radar is known as RDF. Sonar will likewise be know as asdic.

 

[Miss Construction]

A very important change to the Chinese theatre. The CW strikes on US cities are not caused by the bombing of Hong Kong. The trigger is much earlier and probably somewhere the PA would never expect such a response (well except Halsey and co), but somewhere the CW can not do anything other than respond and respond in force. It will not be the single raid and gradual escalation I had planned. It'll be all in boots and all straight away.

April 1941: With the CW now bombing US cities, IJAAF, IJNAF and USAAC bombers, primarily B-17s from Formosa begin attacking Hong Kong and Guangzhou. These raids inflict heavy civilian casualties.

 

[mudhead]

May 1941: A CW Bristol Beaufigher night fighter crash lands over Japanese held territory. Despite the efforts of the crew the its AI Mk IV RDF is captured. Though damaged, the Pacific Alliance immediately begin reverse engineering the airborne intercept unit.

Is this TL's Mk IV the same as IOTL? The first reliable AI set - and the receiver/VDU was also used as the basis of other applications.

Wikipedia is somewhat variable in quality, but their account seems comprehensive and accurate: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/AI_Mk._IV_radar

600 Squadron account here.

 

[Miss Construction]

Is this TL's Mk IV the same as IOTL? The first reliable AI set - and the receiver/VDU was also used as the basis of other applications.

Wikipedia is somewhat variable in quality, but their account seems comprehensive and accurate: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/AI_Mk._IV_radar

600 Squadron account here.

It is indeed and will lead to a major advance in PA radar. I was tempted to make it the Mk III but that in my opinion would be a CW-wank. The Mk III had been replaced in the OTL by this time.

 

[Miss Construction]

Is this TL's Mk IV the same as IOTL? The first reliable AI set - and the receiver/VDU was also used as the basis of other applications.

Wikipedia is somewhat variable in quality, but their account seems comprehensive and accurate: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/AI_Mk._IV_radar

600 Squadron account here.

I've taken out the capture of the AI radar. There's just no way that aircraft would be over enemy held territory. Not only were their strict rules against it, as with ASV radar, the system reqiured ground based radar to direct the aircraft to its target. The PA will remain two or three years behind the CW and won't get the cavity magnetron unless then capture one and even then it will take them two years to reverse engineer it (that's how long it took the Germans)