I feel like Beria Soviet Union would be an interesting TL after this.
That sounds like a nightmare!
So BNC, do you have a sense of relief now or is this a bittersweet finale?
TBH both. When I first started this I only envisioned it as being a project for a month or two, certainly nothing like the epic it has become. Every part of the process has been amazing, but it is time to move on
Though, would seem that Churchill, would have intended, help, to give his opinion, though he did it, in one of the most harsh possible ways to offer a very necessary reality check to his successor.
Also, it seems me very uncharacteristic of him. Cause, I don't think that Churchill, even if forced for the geopolitical realities, would accept resign his nation international standing and position, and even less that would advise to his successor, that to keep their current position, to become, ITTL, in what would seem, (IMO) on mere American 'sidekicks'.
I've always been given to understand that Churchill was fairly open about the UK's future as a world power being tied to its alliance with the US?
Behind the scenes, he would definitely be encouraging Eden to make sure Britain has a voice, but Eden at that point definitely needed to be told "don't do the stupid thing De Gaulle just did" and that's the scene that encapsulates the 'end of WW2's encore' feel I've been going for
Would seems that Egypt would become, for the US, ITTL Vietnam, but given the geographic differences, I'd expect that here would be almost exclusively urban low-intensity warfare.
Though, that I have few doubts that it would become the main Egyptian cities in TTL versions of Fallujah. But aside of of the aforementioned probable consequences, here the would be Egyptian insurgents would be faced with their isolation both geographic and political due to lack of trusted supply sources to keep fighting against the Western occupation and their (so perceived) puppet regime.
Given that, I'd guess that their only source of weapons and ammo would be from the captured or stolen to the new Egyptian Army and/or to their Western 'assessors'.
Exactly the Egyptian insurgents won't have cover anywhere and the flat terrain and no forests at all dosen't help and would be out in the open other than the cities. In the worst case I see it devolving into a situation like Iraq now with occasional attacks. Securing or rather sweeping the cities is probably a east part and then occasional attack may continue. But without any major external backer, Libya is a western ally, Sudan would be afraid, Israel no chance, no neighbour seems particularly intent on helping them and everyone around knows the price of annoying the superpowers, they would fade away slowly. Actually a democratic government may very well develop but how long will it last is anyone's guess. I don't see it becoming a Vietnam.
I am disappointed with the author ending the TL instead of continuing with MacArthur as the military governor of Egypt, why is Naguib required so soon.😐
There's a lot of room for messy occupation before we get to something as bad as Vietnam was... I imagine Egypt falls somewhere there.
Mac installing himself as military governor was just never going to happen - one of the things he felt most important about running an occupation (both Philippines '44-45 and Japan '45-51) was reinstating civilian authority as soon as possible, that's something he credits with his success. In the case of the Philippines, he had Osmena reinstated mere hours after landing on Leyte - that wasn't exactly practical in Egypt considering Naguib was in Cairo at the time, but installing him as soon as Amer was finished with would have been the next best option.
Wonderful timeline! Truly one of the best on this sight. One thing I did wonder about was whether MacArthur would order the exhumation of the American war dead of WW1 and WW2 from France, just as LBJ infamously threatened to do with DeGaulle in 1966 after he expelled the American troops. It would certainly send a message.
My inclination is to say that he wouldn't. Unlike LBJ, Mac had known personally some of the WW1 dead, and he was always quite sentimental about the places where he had been and served. His reaction to De Gaulle is much more one of disbelief and sadness than one of anger.
Agreed that Egypt would be more like Diet Iraq from OTL. The Egyptians would be a lot more isolated than Vietnam or Iraq were which complicates any insurgency.
I do wonder if Canadian PM Pearson would go along with the UK or if he’d be trying to distance Canada from the conflict as much as he comfortably could. He probably isn’t winning a Nobel Peace Prize TTL.
With Israel in control of the Sinai for longer and largely Egypt neutered, this could butterfly the Six Day War. Another conflict would likely arise between Israel and her neighbors but it would be much less dire and likely see Syria and Jordan getting hammered much harder.
I’m sure one of Mac’s last things he did in office was commission a statue of Patton somewhere in DC.
"Diet Iraq". Not a phrase I ever thought I'd read but one I very much approve of
Canada (as well as the rest of the Commonwealth) tried to stay out once it became clear that Mac, Churchill and Eden were going to invade Egypt (and not just the Suez area) if Nasser didn't back down. A couple of days after Malenkov does Czechoslovakia-68 in Iran, it's terrible press and those countries don't have much economic reason to be so insistent about Suez. Maybe Menzies still involves himself somehow (though Australia is too far away to send troops as quickly as Mac wanted them), I have trouble seeing it from anyone else.
I like the idea of the Patton statue
Could someone put a 20 year earlier, Sadat and make friends with Israel? Perhaps the trucual states could make an attempt.
Right after Israel helped the Allies butcher Egypt? The Arabs aren't going to be in the mood for mending fences. This is a lot worse than the thrashing they received in OTL 1967, and
that pretty quickly led to a new war.
Ten, twenty years down the line, once heads have cooled, there could be an attempt to make amends. But it won't be anytime soon.
- BNC