McGoverning

@Yes Looking at your the Sports part of your update, I got to wondering if the Miami Dolphins might have made a fourth consecutive Super Bowl appearance in 1975; and while it does look like their playoff game with Oakland was close enough that getting them to the NFC Championship Game is a cinch, it would seem (at least according to the site you linked to) that they’d likely do unfavorably against the Steelers. So much for becoming “America’s Team” then.

They'll still have to get past Joe Robbie's tight-fistedness with player contracts but they have a reasonable shot, certainly they're the established titan of the AFC at that point while the Raiders and Steelers are still trying to climb the mountain before they even get the shot to knock Miami off. On the "America's Team" note because it weaves so nicely back into the mainline political bent of the TL, Dallas taking on that monicker (even though they've just dropped a Super Bowl to Miami in the rematch of SB VI) has more to do with their cultural positioning (i.e. who it is who think the 'Boys look like "real America") than their postseason success rate.

I don't want to try to pick out only one quote with the whole Sports thing, but if in 1974 the road team won every game then Oakland won the World Series. I think What If Sports uses the 1995 through 2002 model of odd vs. Even switching leagues, but from 1946 through 1993 in even-numbered years the national league was the home team.

Otherwise looks great. I can definitely see Oakland winning in 1973 Over Pittsburgh, which can win by a few games in a very weak division with Clemente still alive. Then they feel they don't have to make quite the moves they did and lose the division in 74.
This is a good quibble. I set up the sim on the basis of Oakland taking home-field advantage based on a much better in-season record, rather than an annual trading process. The more you know :) Yeah Roberto (by intangibles as much as his stats) helps boost up Pittsburgh in that chaotic NL East of '73 and, likewise, adds to complacency the season thereafter because why fix what almost worked last year? And, not to sound too much like a bad color commentator, but in '74 the Cards are hungrier.
 
The tapestry of diplomacy here across so many fronts, to solve so many problems, all interlocked...really good. Can't wait to see what happens in Lebanon, among the Kurds, and of course to see how far under the limbo stick you can go in Israel/Palestine.

I'd go put $20 on "hideously betrayed", that always pays out.
 
*When you're mentioned by @Yes twice in the 'McGoverning' thread in one day*

:D :D :D :D :D :D

tfw when there are Turtledove-winners (more than one) hanging around your own little thread to mention.


So a slightly stronger Alignment here compared to OTL. This perhaps may be enough of a cushion to make 1977 more competitive when compared to OTL - it'd be nice to see an earlier Shimon Peres premiership which isn't merely on a temporary basis.

Part of it is as simple as a few key figures talking Shulamit Aloni and her closest allies into sticking with Alignment rather than going the third-force (or sixth-, or seventh- , given that it is Israeli politics) route. But also a combination of economic anxiety (no, the real kind </current politics>) and that yearning for stability drives a little added oomph for the "historic league" and also the Israeli left more generally. It does seem likely to make '77-'78, whenever exactly the next election comes, more competitive and potentially a bit of a mess if Likud still gains much in direct relation to Alignment, i.e. lots of minor parties making careful calculations about what alliances would satisfy most of their supporters vs. what alliances would satisfy a majority of the public.


So a slightly closer race than OTL with the Democratic Justice Party in a healthier position when compared to OTL. Still this isn't a bad result for the Turkish right, you have the AP doing a fair bit better, as does its rightist split off the DPs. The National Salvation Party, one of Erbakan's many attempts to gain parliamentary representation in the officially secular country, have seemingly gone as they did OTL. While being quite similar to Erdogan, he didn't have the authoritarian overtones of the current OTL Turkish leader. Seeing him get into bed with Ecevit seems weird on the surface, though it occurred OTL and thus makes a lot of sense here. Unless the either side somehow does a bit better in 1977 (or whenever the next election is), then the military will still be looking quite shifty over there in the corner, while parliamentary still can't elect a new President...

Yes, Demirel's AP does do markedly better, still very much in second place but better aligned to build a coalition with the largest minor parties. The plight of the Turkish Cypriots is indeed enough glue to hold together Erbakan's relationship with the orthodox Kemalists, at least for a while, that plus Erbakan's own admirable sense of civic obligation - with Demirel a guilty man in the public's eyes National Salvation needs to coalesce with someone just to make sure there is a working government, which suits Erbakan's long-term goal of selling his party platform as the Responsible Local Islamists. The military is already quite squirrely over the Cyprus situation, they were probably about two meals away from a coup when Ecevit regained control of the government. If paralysis and street warfare keeps up, that's very much a Trend for the ol' deep state.


This on face value seems a lot better for the monarchy when compared to OTL (then again the Revolution here is far more favourable to the monarch as well) without the opportunistic Karamanlis as Prime Minister. Tell me does Spyros Markenzinis' strange right-wing pro-democracy force do at all well here? Regarding the monarchy the longer they make here, the better it will be for them. Granted King Constantine is still seen as a partisan figure, but I suspect his stock has risen here after the events of May.

Markezinis' force does do a little better not so much because principled folk rally to it, as that it offers political cover for folk who'd been largely fine with the Colonels but need to wash their hands of all that in order to stay politically engaged, which is not what Spyros was going for but he likes to hope these are conversion experiences rather than just opportunism. Yes, Connie 2.0 did very well out of his one sound political decision, if he can restrain his instinct to meddle disastrously he might just brazen this out long enough that there's some institutional inertia to prop up the throne, at least while he carries on and gets older. The line of succession however is likely to be a place where the republican debate rises again, as Greeks look past Constantine's good deed at whether they want kings just 'cause or not.


Oh now these are some pretty big butterflies. How badly is Haughey's career ruined? If its permanently on the backbenches then Haughey will probably go to Ted Heath levels of grumbling and trying to discredit Lynch (which is saying something considering how he did it OTL). If its seen him lose his whip, then I'd have guessed he'd have set up his own republican party with Blaney and Boland which would surely siphon enough votes from FF to create a far more viable FG-Labour government. With Fine Gael failing once again, then you're likely to see Liam Cosgrave stand down as leader... that is not good for Fine Gael who are now going to be subjected to a rather brutal interparty skirmish between the liberal (Fitzgerald's camp) and the conservatives (Cosgrave's camp). If either side triumphs without throwing enough scraps to the losing side, then there's going to be some pretty major issues for the party over the course of the seventies. For FF you may see Lynch go sooner as he doesn't lose power here... without Haughey waiting in the wings, its a virtual certainty that George Colley will succeed him as party leader... and with that Desmond O'Malley as well after him...

They are indeed Majestic Sky Flap-Flaps, at least on the localized Irish scale. Haughey is very likely to be taking inventory on Toys, Pram, For the Throwing Out Of. Which could have some considerable consequences. With Sunningdale less likely (either no agreement or a bastardized one) there's likely momentum for Fitzgerald not just within FG but among parts of the Irish public who want someone in favor of what Sunningdale represents. Whether that means Fitzgerald tries to muscle Cosgrave out, or whether Cosgrave decides he needs to settle in, in order to provide continuity, while at the same time playing up some of Fitzgerald's boys inside the party in order to capitalize on pro-Sunningdale sentiment for purely electoral purposes, remains to be seen. (Of course those folks can turn to Irish Labour too, but the general feeling is likely to be that any government that way inclined is likeliest to be FG-led so bucking up Fitzgerald makes more sense.) FF may indeed be able to capitalize on too much Excellent News for Fine Gael, and Lynch's succession then does become a central point.


Which kind of Justicalists? The cute and cuddly left-leaning Hector Campora sorts, the potentially senile and being swayed to the right Juan Peron sorts, the most likely pseudo-far right Isabel Peron sorts or the overtly fascistic Jose Lopez Rega sorts? They get progressively worse as you go along, you see. :p

Love the descriptions because they're so accurate. I'll return to that in reply to @Avalanches' comment, but for now will say that part of the problem is, like good Justicialists, they're trying to be everything at once in an effort not to eviscerate their own movement like shrews in a sack...

I'm sure this won't cause any issues down the road... nope no siree... nope not at all...

*whistles past graveyard*

Eh? Surely the election resulted in a finely balanced Riksdag between the left and centre-right? Surely the SocDems shedding even a SINGLE seat here means that the centre-right comes to power, headed most likely by Fälldin as they were post-1976 OTL?

Palme has quite strong fingernails with which to cling to power. After all, his political strength is that he's Olaf Palme. And his potentially fatal weakness is... he's Olaf Palme.



:love: Hopefully HH will go far in 'McGoverning'. I will freely admit that Howell was actually @Nofix's idea in the first place, so all thanks should go to him above all else regarding Howell being used in NSS.

Howell's one of those guys who's just so much fun to have around it makes sense that sheer temporal ebullience would lift him a little higher ITTL. We'll see how he does in the long term. And all praise and credit to @Nofix then (who deserves plenty of it for many reasons) for talent-scouting such a compelling character.



Northern Ireland better make it to the semis in 1982 here. :p

R E D H A N D

This is probably very oddly specific but I was wondering how the Northern Ireland Assembly elections went ITTL? I'm not guessing much different to OTL, but without the more agreeable Cosgrave as Taoiseach you're less likely to see Sunningdale agreed... which means the Assembly may stay around longer... coupled with Bill Craig's odd support for voluntary powersharing... it may even make it in the long run. :eek:

That reminds, me, tangential to that, I have a detail question to ask you - this by way of reminding myself to do that. Craig is in an ... interesting position given developments ITTL.
 
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Humphrey-Hawkins, anyone?

A U G U S T U S

That train will be leaving the station soon.

Oh, and I noticed Kareem got another ring with the Bucks. I would say there's a greater chance he stays in Milwaukee for a bit longer, but I'd imagine his heart is still set on the big markets.

Yes, it is, probably foremost on the Washington Unfortunate Names but he'd take LA, and more than LA may be interested in a move back home to the Big Apple.

Hate to double post, but I couldn't go on with my day without talking Argentine politics.

No worries - double post away.

I'd imagine in '73 that things would be a bit too convergent for Juan not to be the nominee considering the deal he made with Campora in advance in the election, but as an underutilized POD, having Juan's heart attacks and litany of health problems take him during election season would see everything go pear-shaped and have the partisan divisions among the left and right in the Justicalists become even worse than OTL.

Has someone hacked my Scrivener notes? :cool:
 
Humphrey-Hawkins, anyone?

Spoiler: Tip O'Neill's career takes a bit of a turn...

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That reminds, me, tangential to that, I have a detail question to ask you - this by way of reminding myself to do that. Craig is in an ... interesting position given developments ITTL.

Sure shoot me a PM and I'll be happy to help!
 
this is a more practical kind of detente than OTL's which very much suits George's temperament, not a lot of handwavium about geostrategy like you got with Kissinger.

Having Sarge instead of Kissinger at the helm of US foreign policy must be such a breath of fresh air. It won't be an unblemished tenure by any means, but we've got a dynamic, idealistic institution-builder instead of an academic whose passion for realpolitik sometimes veers into baying for blood. Speaking of that, has Zbig showed up yet? It isn't 70s Democratic foreign policy without him.
 
Having Sarge instead of Kissinger at the helm of US foreign policy must be such a breath of fresh air. It won't be an unblemished tenure by any means, but we've got a dynamic, idealistic institution-builder instead of an academic whose passion for realpolitik sometimes veers into baying for blood. Speaking of that, has Zbig showed up yet? It isn't 70s Democratic foreign policy without him.

Emphasis mine, for the lulz.

More of this guy:

sarge-shriver-15_i7ojqb


is near-universally a Good Thing. You're right that he's only human, that even the best people make poor decisions sometimes through confirmation bias or poor information or vanity, and that there will be some measure of realpolitik even in an administration that believes, to paraphrase McGovern's valedictory address when he graduated Dakota Wesleyan, that a practical idealism is necessary in public affairs for the very survival of humanity. But having someone who is such a dogged optimist and, as you pointed out - this is not sexy at all but it is bloody important to any kind of stabilization of both the Cold War and post-colonial paths to development and (crummy word, correct concept) self-actualization in the Global South - an institution-builder makes an enormous difference.

So much political-insider banter, and much of what little AH there is about ol' George, either plays with or vigorously affirms the opposed tropes of GEORGE MCGOVERN IS THE AGE OF AQUARIUS LET MACRAME BE UNCONFINED AND TRIUMPHAL DOOBIES BE LIT or MCGOVERN IS A LIMP-WRISTED COMMIE ENABLER WHO WILL DESTROY WEALTH AND JOY AND PLUNGE AMERICA INTO CANNIBALISM. Or, the much duller but brutally effective "McGovern's a naive, stumblebum loser" promulgated by the Democratic Leadership Council. What gets skipped in all of that is the people around McGovern. A presidential administration is the farthest thing from an island. McGovern and his campaign became in the early Seventies the last best refuge of American left-liberalism. And, once he actually won the damn election and confounded expectations ITTL, while the Democratic right (hi, Neocons! hi, unrepentant segregationists!) would range themselves in opposition to much of his program, a number of permagov Democratic careerists are gonna try to get on board too because McGovern's is the only Democratic administration currently in town. (It's why a number of idealistic liberals went to work for Carter, at least at first.) This brings to bear a range of policy initiatives and a really quite talented group of people across a broad range but with particular emphasis on policy in (1) macroeconomics and (2) foreign affairs. Did they have blind spots? Lord yes. Also shortcomings. We'll get to some of those and their consequences as we go. But what gets unleashed in this period is the potential of those talents and their ideas.

Also, some folks will find out that it's dangerous to think that "idealistic" and "naive" or "impractical" are the same things. In particular the New Right will be in the blood-red rush of urgent fury because the McGoverners are bold enough to try things that would (1) genuinely shake up the system and (2) sometimes could actually work, with disastrous effect on the New Right's ability to sway low-information middle-grounders by force of argument. For example it's why many New Right elders counseled (counseled? ordered...) ni shagu nazad on the public-health-care model. They figured if the public actually got that there'd be no talking the proles, er, citizenry out of it. This is a time when the ink's barely dry on the Powell Memo; let battle be joined.

As for Zbiggy Stardust, oh yes, he will wind his serpentine way into the narrative. Zbig certainly prefers power - the real thing - to principle so he's not going to just go die in the last Team B ditch with Scoop Jackson. Probably he'll start with something friendly-like, such as agreeing with the McGoverners that several East European satellites (especially Zbig's beloved Poland) chafe actively against Soviet authority and need a de-escalation of European tensions and more commerce across the Iron Curtain to find their own way. Give 'em something familiar to their confirmation bias, then see where it takes you. He will have his little ways I'm sure.
 
As always, another magnificent chapter. Having read through it a couple times, I have actual thoughts and points to say rather than just "omg!!!" like I always want to.

-The one-two punch of Saddam and Khomeini's deaths is just... *chef kiss*. Even better than Khomeini's was a literal coin flip. Really goes to show what weird things history can turn on. Also makes you think about how many coin flips we've all survived to get to where we are.
-Pretty fun that Soviet reformers are getting into places of power at points when it matters, instead of years late and millions of rubles short. On the other hand, I'm shuddering to think of what this is going to mean for climate change when the Soviets start producing natural gas in the 70s.
-This is just an idle shower thought that I'm not super sold on, but I thought I'd just let it fly anyway: So we've got the US-Israel-South Africa triangle. Given the current Democratic-Israel conditional closeness, and the Democratic-South Africa "apartheid bad" feelings, could this whole Israel-South Africa double cross wind up accelerating OTL's growing partisan divide over Israel much like McGovern's election accelerated the Great Polarization?
 

Bulldoggus

Banned
1973 Turkish legislative election results
Republican People's Party 178
Justice Party 158*
National Salvation party 47*
Democratic Party 47*
Republican Reliance Party 10
Independents 5
Nation Party 2

Demirel builds a coalition from the historic political right and the moderate Islamists. This comes unglued over Cyprus, as the Islamists desert to a "patriotic national front" in strange-bedfellows company with the People's and Reliance republican parties (the former the institutional Kemalist party and secularists to a man) over the "let's not let our kith and kin on Cyprus be slaughtered in droves" issue. This is about as stable as you would expect but certainly lasts long enough for Ecevit to get tough on Cypriot enclaves.
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-Pretty fun that Soviet reformers are getting into places of power at points when it matters, instead of years late and millions of rubles short. On the other hand, I'm shuddering to think of what this is going to mean for climate change when the Soviets start producing natural gas in the 70s.
Oh yeah, Global Warming; that’s also a thing.
 
Oh yeah, Global Warming; that’s also a thing.

I reckon if you're the US and it's the Cold War, and your line of thinking is, "wait a sec, there's nothing stopping OPEC from attempting economic warfare on us, we better do something," and you go so far as to ask the Soviets to start producing more oil...that's not likely to be the first item on the Oval Office white board. I'd be surprised if efforts to reduce consumption don't show up in future posts. Most of those efforts aren't going to qualify for a foreign policy post, though increased lending for infrastructure projects for the developing world through IBRD could certainly include projects that reduce consumption. In fact, anything that nudges the criteria in international lending away from strict economic growth at all hazards, environment be damned, is going to help.
 
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