Removing Khomeini from the picture is going to have a whole lot of knock on effects down the line with the Revolution (because lets not kid ourselves, the Shah is going to fuck up somehow down the line) especially given his successors seem to be taking a more internationalist approach. Maybe the MEK or Tudeh will finally get their day in the sun. Still though, it's a shame to lose such an iconically sinister looking figure, even OTL it's felt like the Middle East lost one of it's best characters since he packed it in. People are honestly trying to make Nasrallah into his replacement, and he's far too roly-poly for the job.
You're right to point out that, put frankly, there are still a multitude of ways for the Shah to fuck up, because he has a particular gift at that. Really a whole range of possibilities have been loosed on the Iranian political scene, some by the space created by Ruhollah Khomeini's absence (we still have Mostafa and Ahmed trying to manage the family legacy), some by the details of mutuality as the McGoverners offer some highly conditional chumminess to the Shah. Lots of space to watch here.
Strong Tito energy from mah boi Assad here.
Hafez gotta Hafez.
You always are, good sir.
@Yes It sounds like, between more efficient extraction of natural resources and Kirilenko’s economic reforms getting better implemented, that a lot of the structural issues that contributed to the USSR’s economic and political crises in the 1980’s are being avoided. I know you generally prefer not to tip your hand on future updates, but let me ask - do these decisions mean that the Soviets have managed to avoid their collapse (and thus the End of the Cold War), at least for the shot to medium term?
Also, a more minor point, it sounds like Yigal Allon’s government has a fair chance of being successful enough in the short term that the next election (1977, 78, or thereabouts) keeps Alignment in power, at least until the 1980’s. If so, that’s a neat little detail.
I would say each of those bets are very much still out. Allon has a crucial but narrow row to hoe in terms of the Americans' "big ask" on peace talks, especially if he actually gets somewhere with the four-power (Israel, Egypt, Syria, Jordan) discussions and then has to confront dealing with the Palestinians face to face when he (Allon) personally has written off most Palestinian interlocutors in public statements as terrorists and/or gangsters. But he has some added oomph behind him at the start - as he suggested to the smoke-filled room crowd, the Israeli public wanted stability more than change after the war so Allon's remit is to be The Guy Who Fixes Things. Whether he does, and what those fixes
are, will have a lot to do with how the next round in '77 or '78 turns out.
I would hate to put the salvation of the whole Soviet Union on Kirilenko's pudgy yet willing shoulders. There is an awful lot of Trend to Late Soviet fucked-uppedry.
But, this could be the start of a very substantial change. And I will say this for the situation in Israel, the situation in Iran, and the situation in the USSR alike: enough has changed that
whatever the longer-term outcomes are, they will probably differ in quite substantive ways from OTL. We're striding fast into the Butterfly Field now, and that's fixin' to spread to domestic issues in the next two chapters.
I presume the NASL is beginning its slow growth now, that will lead to rapid growth, that will lead to a rapid fall?
Again, the Butterfly Tide is rising so we'll see. Over-speculation was a frequent danger in young American sports leagues in the Sixties and Seventies, each of them trying to do what the NFL did (and that the AFL piggybacked) moving out of its Steel Belt niche with nationwide TV contracts to displace baseball as America's Game. So there's certainly a good chance the league will look very good for a bit and then go south. But butterflies in some key markets might make a difference. We'll have to see - I'll get to more pop-cultural stuff in the fullness of time and I suspect this will come up
How's about awards shows and other things entertainment related?
I'm not well-placed in terms of research for things like Emmys or Tonys or BAFTAs, but we are early enough in the TL in '73-'74 to have movies and albums rendered basically as they were IOTL so I can offer a little of that up here:
Not really any big changes at the 45th Academy Awards or the '73 Grammys,
Concert for Bangladesh still comes out as Album of the Year and the Oscars look the same except for Jeannie Berlin picking up Best Supporting. The most significant changes in the 46th Academy Awards are near the top of the bill (
The Sting still wins Best Picture) as Al Pacino gets a new-hotness Best Actor for
Serpico (which breaks my heart a little because Jack Lemmon is a lifelong personal favorite of mine) while an actress does win their second Oscar only this time it's Joanne Woodward for
Summer Wishes, Winter Dreams. Woodward is very
au fait at that moment, since she and her husband Paul Newman are among the Hollywood folk closest to President McGovern. Will David Niven still have to deal with a streaker while announcing? I leave that to the power of narrative.
"I give you the jury of the damned. Benedict Arnold, Lizzie Borden, Richard Nixon... John Wilkes Booth, Blackbeard the Pirate, John Dillinger, and the starting line of the 1976 Philadelphia Flyers."
Choice.
Namesake of the cheesiest promenade eponym in America--NOLA's Moon Walk.
Behold The Power of Cheese
always nice to see some partisanship about the butterflies.
You're very kind.
Let me add my congratulations and thanks, and a second round of thanks for your later explanatory post. I mean not that I needed it, I understood every nuance. I, uh, I certainly didn't think legendary Utah Jazz big man Andrei Kirilenko was off to save the Soviet economy. Not for a second. Though I'm sure he'd be up for the task, if given a chance.
POSTING UP FOR THE FIVE-YEAR PLAN
Loved the West Wing references, especially whoever alt-Donna was, not giving alt-Josh the time of day, god that would've been a better show. And I'm also going to hat-tip your wrestling the angel metaphor, which you could've gotten from anywhere, but I'm going to assume it was from our conversation and that I remind you of the Ayatollah. That's certainly the image of myself I keep in my head when I'm world-building.
I'm thinking a bit more like Leo's secretary only played straight rather than for laughs. Fortyish, tastefully current glasses, snappy dresser in a restrained way, not at
all at home to any of Hart Gary's line of patter either romantic or policy-based. Grateful when Coulter's around because then there's a grownup in the room. Secretly has a crush on Frank Mankiewicz but also the emotional maturity to not get silly about it. Slayer of chaos and champion of punctuality, able to gently maneuver the overgrown boys around her into positions where they can make themselves useful to the country rather than just be overgrown boys. Probably a redhead but then I've got a thing about that.
Wow, though. So much to go through! The new international lending mechanism is probably my favorite thing in here. So many questions! How does this affect governance of the other arbiters of international finance like the IMF/World Bank? And all these commodities agreements give the impression of a global economy that's integrating more completely significantly earlier. How can the EU develop per OTL when its large players are tied to really significant agreements with the US and Japan? We've seen the US develop two distinct economic ties to the Soviets here in the form of oil/gas and grain...could this be the start of a deeper agreement?
There are certainly more direct ties with the Soviets cropping up on various fronts - this is a more
practical kind of
detente than OTL's which very much suits George's temperament, not a lot of handwavium about geostrategy like you got with Kissinger. Both sides still view the relationship as more adversarial than not, since the Soviets especially view McGovern's administration as an electoral "sport" not likely to be repeated anytime soon. But both the McGovern administration and Brezhnev's emergent one-man rule see this as a chance to lock in some useful mutuality such that it becomes bureaucratic and economic inertia, hard for the next guys after them to change without screwing up different stuff by making the change. A key here, I think, is that both the McGoverners and Brezhnev put a very high value on
domestic stability and see this break in Cold War norms as a chance to advance that goal.
The IMF is getting involved with the Clearing Facility, while in some ways the IBRD is getting a leg up on its big brother the World Bank because the McGoverners see developing-world issues as The Thing of the Future and this is a chance to lay institutional groundwork. I don't know that it's
more deeply integrated so much as
much more clearly (the McGoverners would argue also better)
organized than IOTL. This is an effort to make an ongoing process of greater integration that's kind of under its own steam something more systematic and less risky for all the parties involved. By trying to smooth it out they may speed it up some, but their real goal is in the smoothing process, in hopes that will give all the relevant parties incentive not to send shocks through the system again.
The tapestry of diplomacy here across so many fronts, to solve so many problems, all interlocked...really good. Can't wait to see what happens in Lebanon, among the Kurds, and of course to see how far under the limbo stick you can go in Israel/Palestine.
Horse-trading is fun. And all the little flocks of butterflies flittering around each of those processes opens up more interesting possibilities for the future. Yeah, we're probably going to need a team of chiropractors to get under that limbo stick but at leasst they're trying.
The water diplomacy made me laugh for another reason. I recently discovered that due to a strange quirk in the law (involving a proclamation from King Charles I and a 19th century resolution between Maryland and Virginia that just FORGOT to include the city), Washington DC has a claim to the Virginia bank of the Potomac. Now all that's left is to write a TLIAD where a local Ba'athist Party takes power in DC and we'll be off to the races.
Awesome. Obviously Marion Barry will be party chairman after he exiles or interns Walter Fauntroy.
Anyway, brilliant as ever, thanks again!
Thank
you for being one of The Readers. It's a pleasure.
