Okay, as promised: some revised borders for North America, the way I'd do it. In the form of a future history scenario, because that's the way I roll. As some people know, I'm quite pessimistic about the future. This, however, is a scenario where things go better than I dare to expect (at least in North America). Observe that if you find this scenario somewhat implausible--
so do I. This scenario hints at the full extent of the dangers I foresee, but essentially has them come to a head sooner than I actually expect them to. In reality, I expect them to simmer and worsen until disaster can no longer be staved off. This scenario posits instead that matters come to a head rather early (due to some confluence of events), the early crisis serves as a wake-up call, and the sort of solutions
I would suggest to stave off a disastrous future are actually implemented.
The North American League
In the mid-2020s, severe economic crisis, long years of complete political gridlock and the escalation of ethnic tensions provide the recipe for a disaster that will ultimately prompt dramatic but much-needed reforms. Both the USA and Canada face actual economic collapse, and major cities are aflame with riots that resemble nothing so much as small civil wars. People fall into despair, as political authority fails, long-mounting hatred comes to a head and inflation renders money increasingly worthless. Various secessions are declared, if not actually carried out to full effect: these include ethnic secession movements like the Republic of Aztlan and New Afrika; cultural seperatism like the calls for a referendum in Quebec and the Provisional Government of Hawaii; purely political ventures like the California Republic and the would-be city-state of New York; and
deeply disturbing experiments like the so-called Aryan Ethnostate of America. The national governments of both the USA and Canada, rapidly disintegrating as hyperinflation runs amok and even the police and armed forces can no longer be paid, are barely capable of quelling the worst excesses. In the south, Mexico, similarly in dire straits, is rattling its sabres and threatening to annex secessionist regions in the South-Western USA.
It is in this situation that the Congressional elections of 2026 take place. In Canada, emergency elections have to be organised by the military, roughly concurrent with the election in America. In a shining example of hope against hope, enough people choose to reject the simplistic demagoguery and the divisive politics that have led to the crisis in the first place. Populists of the left and the right alike are thrown out as a new party - the Central Coalition - fields candidates in both the USA and Canada. The core theme of this movement has arisen in opposition to the shouty sloganism that has increasingly governed for the past decades. The candidates for the Central Coalition promote much-needed reform as a last chance to avoid total collapse. The movement does not claim to have easy solutions. On the contrary: it explicitly tells the voters that the time for easy answers is over. Now, the difficult choices will have to be made. Betrayed by the snake-oil salesmen of the populist factions, the people are willing to embrace such level-headed realism. Key policy proposals of the Central Coalition include:
-- Far-reaching decentralisation, to ease the political, cultural and ethnic tensions by allowing communities to decide their own affairs. The aim is to prevent any one group from feeling like a minority, always under the sway of an opposed majority.
-- A controlled default in regard to the national debts of the USA and Canada.
-- A law or amendment to ensure a balanced budget in the future. Notably, the Central Coalition does not engage in partisan politics of demanding either higher taxes or lower spending. Both are acceptable, and a combination of both may well be needed. The point is that no more is ever spent than is gained in revenue.
-- Tax reform that removes all loopholes and both simplified and reduces the role and weight of national taxes. Most taxes are henceforth to be decided upon at the state or local level.
-- Similarly, all non-essential government functions (meaning everything other than national infrastructure, foreign affairs, the armed forces and federal police and justice agencies) are to be devolved to the state or local level.
-- A dismantling of the overwhelming power of the military-industrial complex, and a
severe reduction in size of particularly the US military apparatus. An end to involvement in foreign wars; this simply cannot be supported anymore.
-- An end to the aggressive, hostile relations with Mexico. Normalisation of relations, economic co-operation, perspectives for comprehensive immigration reform, and - notably - an end to the so-called "war on drugs". The Central Coalition advocates the decriminalisation of all drugs, so that production can be regulated and subject to lawful oversight. The hope is that this will take away the power of the various cartels and syndicates that have, by now, become almost as powerful as states in themselves.
-- Finally, representatives of the Central Coalition in both the USA and Canada, in the face of collapsing federal governments, seek to completely rebuild the national governmental framework. With its reduced package of core fuctions, it is to become a dynamic, effective machine. By all accounts, the federal governments of both countries have ceased functioning in the crisis. The Central Coalition sells the idea as "vital co-operation", but their intention is to replace the existing governments of both countries with one new framework.
I these dire times, such proposals - wholly unacceptable in earlier times - are widely embraced by the voting public. (Even so drastic as devolving most government tasks to state and local authorities is seen as fully acceptable, in light of the fact that the collpasing federal governments are
clearly no longer carrying out such tasks anyway...) In both the USA and Canada, provisional governments take shape, as martial law remains in effect and various regions remain in a state of crisis or rebellion. Yet a new political consensus arises, with the aim of carrying out these reforms and restoring public order. The presidential elections of 2028 in the USA confirm this course, as the Central Coalition candidate is elected with a narrow majority. Increasingly, moderates of other parties jump ship. By 2030, the USA and Canada enter into negotiations for the desired closer co-operation, while both countries explore constitutional reforms of a fundamental sort. The Bilateral Convention of 2031 sees the two exploratory bodies for these reforms begin to work together. A year later, both countries join the North American Charter Organisation. In 2033, this Organisation is itself dissolved following the League Convention of representatives from all states and provinces of both countries, as well as of their respective national governments. It takes three years before all parties agree to the League Charter, but by 2036, the North American League is established. The USA and Canada are formally dissolved. Their remaining federal agencies, such as they are, begin full integration.
Under the Charter, territorial bodies are drastically re-organised, mostly on a pleibiscite basis, to ensure that all people can live in a state they find acceptable. Ultimately, the NAL will consist of 42 full member states and two associated states (Quebec and the Northern Territory). All secessionist activities are brought to heel, as the governmental ability to respond is gradually restored, while the reforms greatly reduce the actual desire for secession. Interestingly, the Central Coalition falls apart almost at once. Having achieved its purpose, the very design of the new system ensures that more conservative regions can and will now be free to enact conservative policies locally, while more progressive regions can and will enact progressive policies. Only in the still-divided "swing states" of the old Rust Belt do the politics of compromise remain needed. The Central Coalition remains an active party there, and the state constitutions arrange for parliamentary politics with space for coalition governments. In Quebec and the Northern Territory, local and regionalist parties are dominant. (The Northern Territory is inhabited by a clear majority of Native Americans, whose rights are - perhaps for the first time since white men came to their homelands - truly assured by law. In light of this, and face with the political turmoil in Europe, Greenland elected, via popular referendum, to join the Northern Territory.)
It is now 2037. The NAL is celebrating its first birthday. Although far from perfect, and certainly not everyone's ideal, it is widely seen as the one thing that staved off total disaster. Certainly, there will be challenges in the future: certain currently white-majority and conservative regions face rapid demographic change, and it remains true that states with a non-white majority are likely to vote for progressive policies. Change is coming, and the system will have to prove that it can deal with that. Still, regardless of such future worries, the general sense is that a great danger has been averted. After all: the Charter allows member states to voluntarily split up, combine, or revise their borders via pleibiscites. In a promising example of dynamic change, Mexico is tentatively considering becoming an associate member of the NAL-- as step which would give that country full access to the North American internal market. With the ""War on Drugs" ended, the power of the cartels is waning, and crime in Mexico is dropping steadily. As the economy enters a post-crisis phase of renewed expansion, many a captain of industry in the NAL advocates for Mexican entry into the League, if only for the additonal labour pool that would become available.
For the first time in decades, the people of North America feel confident about the future again. It's not the one they had imagined, two decades before-- but it doesn't lack for opportunities.
Legend:
Bright blue: states tending towards conservative policies
Green: states tending towards progressive policies
Orange: states tending towards moderate policies and coalition governments
Blue-grey: Quebec
Grey: the Northern Territories
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(No, I have not actually made up sensible names for all these newly divided and recombined member states. Suggestions are welcome. I spent two hours on this, it was a bit of a rush job, so if you happen to think that my divisions are stupid and/or insane... too bad.
This is the best I could manage on short notice, based on electoral maps and such handy things.
ETA: the write-up has been slightly edited since the original posting, to provide some more clarity and to remove some typos.)