So yet another small improvement in the British situation in Malaysia, this time that of the Airforces, which under the inspired leadership of Park, have made considerable improvements over their situation IOTL. Has everything that needs to be done been done, No, there has not been the time or resources available, to bring the airforces up to the standard that they truly need. However I believe enough has been done to date, to ensure that the Japanese forces unless they enjoy extraordinary luck, are going to fail to gain ether air superiority or supremacy during the upcoming conflict. Yes the aircraft available along with the facilities, leave something to be desired, the majority of the aircraft are by European standards outdated, and even by the local standards they are lacking. While the facilities and support available are in addition to being very much a work in progress, are also rough and ready. It would be nice to have all the airfields built with hard all weather runways, secure blast proof hand-standings, adequate anti aircraft guns, and bomb proof storage for fuel, ammunition and spares. But as was repeatedly found to be the case right up until today, a lot can be done with piles of dirt in cloth bags, to reduce the amount of damage caused by bombing. And while it must be remembered that training should never end, and that there are a number of problems with the aircrew’s right now, as a lot of them are inexperienced, they are mostly being led by highly experienced and combat veterans. While on the ground there is a growing number of veterans who are providing their experience and knowledge, to both the preparations and training.
Malaysia can be effectively split into five zones, BAZ, WCAZ, ECAZ, SADZ, and SZ. That’s the Boarder Air Zone, which covers everything south of the Malay Thailand border for 100 miles and north of the border as far as each type of aircraft can range. WCAZ, West Coast Air Zone, everything along the west coast from south of the BAZ east to the central highlands and north of the SADZ. ECAZ East Coast Air Zone, everything south of the BAZ, west to the central highlands and north of the SADZ. But unlike the WCAZ, which has very little maritime search and patrol requirements, has the responsibility of extensive search, strike and patrol operations in the South China Sea. SADZ, Singapore Air Defence Zone which although the smallest zone, has in many ways the greatest responsibility, the defence of the colonies most vital city and the Britain's principal naval base in the Far East. Basically the a zone around Singapore extending to 100 miles, that has the most complex air defence system east of Suez. Which despite warnings from the Germans, is going to be a major shock to the Japanese, who haven’t up until now encountered an integrated air defence network. SZ Southern Zone everything south of the SADZ, which is mostly a backwater whose only purpose is maintaining communications with the DEI and maritime patrols primarily for Japanese submarines. Is HQ will be collocated with that of the SADZ, as it has very little combat responsibilities.
While the BAZ will be a area of intense activity once the Japanese launch their offensive, as it tries to defend its airspace against the Japanese, while attempting to launch attacks against the Japanese land, sea and airforces. Such as attacks against the front lines, their supply lines and the forward Japanese airfields, and any Japanese naval presence of the coast. It will however have the advantage of being able to swap units as they become worn out with the commands behind, and if necessary to fall back onto prepared facilities. Unlike the Japanese who are going to find that not only are they having major trouble with their logistics, but that any British airfield they manage to capture has been thoroughly destroyed and made unusable. While their own airfields in Thailand and FIC, are being attacked from the air and possibly the ground. As for the SADZ, IOTL the initial Japanese bombing mission involved 17 bombers of the 65 that had set out, so 48 had had to turn back due to bad weather, and came as a total surprise to the British. I would expect that ITTL, the British will be far more awake, and within minutes of the Japanese launching their assault on Hong Kong, the forces in Malaysia will be going to full alert. If we are generous and allow the Japanese better weather, so that all their aircraft are able to fly to Singapore, at just before 03:30 hrs on the 8th of December the first aircraft will be detected by radar in Singapore. This should allow the air-raid sirens to be sounded by 04:00 hrs, and unlike IOTL, where there had only been two air-raid drills, ITTL there has been numerous drills. Singapore will not be lit up like a Christmas tree, every anti aircraft gun will be manned and ready, and the Civil Defence, Police and Military will be deployed and ready. Park is not Brooke-Popham, and his night-fighters will not be elsewhere diverted to ground attack duties, and he will order all available aircraft into the air.
As a result I would expect the Japanese to lose 10% of their attacking aircraft, to the guns and night-fighters. With possible additional aircraft lost to day fighters launched as additional forces during the raid, or just after. On the ground while there will be more damage than was achieved IOTL, the much better preparations, and the effectiveness of the blackout will ensure that nothing vital is destroyed. This attack will not come as a great surprise to the British or the local population, they have been well prepared for this eventuality, and unless the Japanese can repeat it nightly, which would divert their aircraft from supporting their forces in the north. It will be seen for what it is a desperate attempt to panic the people of Singapore. IOTL it wasn’t until the Japanese had reached Kuala Lumpur a month later that the Japanese started to engage in daylight raids, and there was only one minor two aircraft raid before the next nighttime attack at the end of December. If the British manage to keep the Japanese north of a line between Kuala Lumpur and Kuantan, while causing them additional losses in aircraft in the battle in the north and during any subsequent night raids, it is very doubtful that the Japanese will be launching a daylight raid. And if they did it would suffer major casualties, as by then every British pilot will be combat experienced, and in combination with the extensive air defence system, in the right place to inflict the maximum damage. Prior to this I would expect the Japanese to have fought a much tougher campaign in the air than the did IOTL, and suffered significant casualties on the ground and in the air. While any amphibious assaults would have been subjected to intense air strikes, and the British naval capital units, wouldn’t be sailing around without air cover, or looking for phantoms. As the maritime patrol aircraft will be providing timely and accurate reports on any Japanese vessels in the South China Sea.
To briefly sum up, while the British are still well short of what they require to be able to easily defeat a Japanese attack by land, sea and air on Malaysia. Enough has been done that any Japanese attack will have very little chance of success, and is going to be incredibly costly, and seriously disruptive their plans. Park has done enough with what little he has to make the Malayan Peninsula a very hard nut to crack. And if all goes as well as I believe it will, is bound to get a Knighthood out of this, which will seriously piss of his old mate Leigh-Mallory, who is going to be trying to explain why there are so many British fighters being shot down over France for so little return.
RR.
