Let Them Pass

[Athelstane]

I think the smart move for Germany would be to want French colonies in particular in Africa for a peace deal while leaving French territory itself alone.

Yeah, as I suggested earlier, this is more likely. The French will put up with a lot if they lose no territory in Europe. The obvious places to look for territory can be found in French Equatorial Africa (where the much desired Mittelafrika project can be realized in some form) and maybe, possibly, Morocco. It is not *impossible* that the Germans might ask for something in French West Africa (like Dahomey) , I just do not detect much German interest in that region.

I wonder how the situation in Japan will go since the Germans have no real way of getting at the Japanese. They may be forced to accept Japanese control of their Asian colonies.

The earlier the British agree to a peace, the more likely it is the Germans might get *something* back from Japan. The Marianas and the Carolines are not worth much, and the Germans might be happy to let Tokyo have them for some nominal payment. They might fight harder for Kiautschou Bay given their extensive economic and political interests in China, however, and American and British pressure may well be enough to swing it back to the Germans, or in the alternative, to dissolve the lease and return it to China (which is after all what happened in 1922 anyway).

 

[marathag]

The earlier the British agree to a peace, the more likely it is the Germans might get *something* back from Japan. The Marianas and the Carolines are not worth much, and the Germans might be happy to let Tokyo have them for some nominal payment.

I see if the Japanese don't give back their Pacific Holdings back to Germany, they will insist that the French make good from their Pacific holding of equal value
German Cochinchina, Annam or Tonkin?

 

[Athelstane]

I see if the Japanese don't give back their Pacific Holdings back to Germany, they will insist that the French make good from their Pacific holding of equal value
German Cochinchina, Annam or Tonkin?

Well, I expect that even Hue alone had more economic value than the sum total of all of German Micronesia, so that would be a lopsided compensation!

Anyhow, German interest in the Pacific, outside of China, strikes me as much more limited than that in Africa; most of it was not worth much, and cost more to run than it got out of it. Getting the bulk of French Equatorial Africa in exchange for the Carolines and Marianas (which were pretty indefensible even by the standards of the pre-war German colonial empire - they'd be hard to sustain in the face of growing Japanese power - would be a pretty good deal for Germany. Getting Morocco would be even better. (I expect they will get back New Guinea, the Bismarcks, the Solomons, and Samoa from the Brits and Aussies.) Maybe they'd want to keep Nauru for the phosphates, but...

Oh, to be sure, I am not saying that Germany can't get it all back, especially if Britain makes peace quickly. I just think that if there's anything the Germans might let go, it would be Micronesia.

 

[Riain]

I see if the Japanese don't give back their Pacific Holdings back to Germany, they will insist that the French make good from their Pacific holding of equal value
German Cochinchina, Annam or Tonkin?

Maybe they could get the British to throw in a bit of North Borneo to get the Germans off the Channel coast as well.

 

[Athelstane]

Maybe they could get the British to throw in a bit of North Borneo to get the Germans off the Channel coast as well.

Which part of the Channel coast, though?

It could hardly be the Belgian ports, since Germany has pinky promised to make Belgium whole when the war is done, and not to garrison it.

If it's the French ports, then we really have to be talking hard peace with France. Like, Treaty of Versailles hard. Like, Treaty of Tilsit hard. Which, you know, is not impossible, even if @Geon does not seem to be headed in that direction. But more to the point, it's far less likely Britain will quickly make a peace with a Germany determined to chop up Metropolitan France and build warports you can see from Dover with a decent telescope, and not least because fundamentally, Germany has virtually no leverage over Britain*. The Grand Fleet will prevent any possible invasion; meanwhile, the British are free to gobble up their entire colonial empire, and strangle Germany's substantial trade.

The only leverage anyone has mentioned is the threat of holding the BEF hostage. Honestly, I think Asquith (let alone whoever is likely to replace him in such a situation) is less likely to cut a deal to Bring the Boys Back Home than Halifax would have in 1940. But it's highly unlikely in any event. Most of the Heer is off in combat in Lorraine and northern Burgundy, or investing Paris, and it will take long time for it to redeploy to Normandy, giving the British plenty of time to react. In any event, a situation where the BEF clearly has no capability of lifting the siege of Paris or making any decisive contribution, is one where we can feel confident the BEF will be withdrawn from Le Havre anyway, or at least, everything but a skeleton force will be.

As for Borneo, I really do tend to think that German interests in acquisitions are going to be focused on Africa. And it's far morely likely a bar tab that France, not Britain (which has suffered no real defeat, and is basically invulnerable to German power), will be forced to pick up. Britain can offer Wilhelm his colonies and his impounded merchant ships back, and that's hefty enough by itself. It will stick in Whitehall's craw (whoever is in power there) to give up territory, even in remote regions, to the Hun.
__
* Someone here will inevitably bring up the threat of commerce warfare, primarily with u-boats, possibly even home ported in captured French ports, as would occur OTL in 1940-45. But it will take Germany time to build up such an arm (as, after all, it took time to do OTL), and conversely, a Britain that isn't raising, equipping, and supporting an army of 2 million to fight in France, and does not have to massively subsidize a French war effort at the same time, is going to have plenty of resources to spare to fight a commerce raiding war. Even any possible war with the Ottomans is not going to be a major resource sink for Britain in this scenario.

 

[Sarthak]

What's going on economically? Belgium breaking her treaty agreement on neutrality basically means a lot of stock investor confidence will go down. Belgium's investor stocks should be hitting the bottom.

 

[kaizerfox]

How I see a gentle peace with France:

Germany: Here are the terms: you defortify and demilitarize your side of the border, give us a few colonies in Africa and pay war reparations and in return Germany will not annex any land in Metropole France.

France: Ok, that's not great but it's not terrible either.

Germany: Oh and Belgium annexes French Flanders and French Hainaut.

France: What!?! But you said-

Germany: I said GERMANY will not annex any land in Metropole France. I never said anything about Belgium...

Belgium: *chuckles nervously*

France: REEEEEEEEE

 

[Riain]

Which part of the Channel coast, though?

It could hardly be the Belgian ports, since Germany has pinky promised to make Belgium whole when the war is done, and not to garrison it.

If it's the French ports, then we really have to be talking hard peace with France. Like, Treaty of Versailles hard. Like, Treaty of Tilsit hard. Which, you know, is not impossible, even if @Geon does not seem to be headed in that direction. But more to the point, it's far less likely Britain will quickly make a peace with a Germany determined to chop up Metropolitan France and build warports you can see from Dover with a decent telescope, and not least because fundamentally, Germany has virtually no leverage over Britain*. The Grand Fleet will prevent any possible invasion; meanwhile, the British are free to gobble up their entire colonial empire, and strangle Germany's substantial trade.

The only leverage anyone has mentioned is the threat of holding the BEF hostage. Honestly, I think Asquith (let alone whoever is likely to replace him in such a situation) is less likely to cut a deal to Bring the Boys Back Home than Halifax would have in 1940. But it's highly unlikely in any event. Most of the Heer is off in combat in Lorraine and northern Burgundy, or investing Paris, and it will take long time for it to redeploy to Normandy, giving the British plenty of time to react. In any event, a situation where the BEF clearly has no capability of lifting the siege of Paris or making any decisive contribution, is one where we can feel confident the BEF will be withdrawn from Le Havre anyway, or at least, everything but a skeleton force will be.

As for Borneo, I really do tend to think that German interests in acquisitions are going to be focused on Africa. And it's far morely likely a bar tab that France, not Britain (which has suffered no real defeat, and is basically invulnerable to German power), will be forced to pick up. Britain can offer Wilhelm his colonies and his impounded merchant ships back, and that's hefty enough by itself. It will stick in Whitehall's craw (whoever is in power there) to give up territory, even in remote regions, to the Hun.
__
* Someone here will inevitably bring up the threat of commerce warfare, primarily with u-boats, possibly even home ported in captured French ports, as would occur OTL in 1940-45. But it will take Germany time to build up such an arm (as, after all, it took time to do OTL), and conversely, a Britain that isn't raising, equipping, and supporting an army of 2 million to fight in France, and does not have to massively subsidize a French war effort at the same time, is going to have plenty of resources to spare to fight a commerce raiding war. Even any possible war with the Ottomans is not going to be a major resource sink for Britain in this scenario.

I was thinking that the British would be at least partly involved in the French armistice negotiations, and if Germany was looking at some sort of access arrangement Britain could attempt to bribe them off. North Borneo isn't much in 1914, and it's close to German Cochin china.

 

[Jaenera Targaryen]

Germany will want Briey-Longwy. With it, they can deprive France of some of their richest coal and iron deposits, and increase the economic vitality of Will's planned Grand Duchy of Lothringen, presumably formed by adding Briey-Longwy to Elsass-Lothringen.

Dunno about French Hainaut, but yeah, French Flanders being broken off and handed over to Belgium sounds just about right. Germany's compensation for Belgium letting them pass through their country to attack France.

 

[Athelstane]

Germany will want Briey-Longwy. With it, they can deprive France of some of their richest coal and iron deposits, and increase the economic vitality of Will's planned Grand Duchy of Lothringen, presumably formed by adding Briey-Longwy to Elsass-Lothringen.

Dunno about French Hainaut, but yeah, French Flanders being broken off and handed over to Belgium sounds just about right. Germany's compensation for Belgium letting them pass through their country to attack France.

This is the "hard peace" pathway, and Lord knows, you could find prominent Germans proposing such territorial cessions at that point in time.

And there are plausible timelines with a quick German triumph in the West that take that pathway. But it does seem that @Geon is taking the timeline in a different direction, and given certain conditions, that is not implausible, either.

 

[Deleted member 94680]

Germany will want Briey-Longwy. With it, they can deprive France of some of their richest coal and iron deposits, and increase the economic vitality of Will's planned Grand Duchy of Lothringen, presumably formed by adding Briey-Longwy to Elsass-Lothringen.

Is the GDL an OTL thing or something ITTL that I missed? If it’s OTL, do you have any sources on it?

 

[Jaenera Targaryen]

Is the GDL an OTL thing or something ITTL that I missed? If it’s OTL, do you have any sources on it?

Nothing concrete, but something mentioned on various threads here on AH that Kaiser Wilhelm II wanted to make a proper state out of Elsass-Lothringen, and that he planned to offer the Grand Duchy to a Habsburg.

 

[Derek Pullem]

Ok - I think it's probably safe to speculate that there will be a peace. I think @Geon story has twisted and turned in the telling but the advantages offered by Belgium's capitulation to Germany have completely undone the French (and British).

I don't think the "hard peace" is particularly viable - giving any territory to Belgium is going to solidify the perception of them as a German puppet. Post-war that may be exactly what they become economically but I don't think Albert wants to embrace that status just yet.

Briey-Longwy is just too juicy to pass up - but if you take that then logically you need to absorb Luxembourg as well. Some interesting discussions on post Franco-Prussian war options including maps are discussed here https://www.alternatehistory.com/fo...settlement-of-the-franco-prussian-war.284736/

I think Option B is a good settlement in Europe plus Luxembourg..

As far as colonies go I suspect a German Morocco will be high on the list after the incidents with France in 1905 and 1911. I'm less convinced about Mittelafrika. With Belgium de facto in German's orbit it's really unnecessary and offer little in the way of strategic gains. It has more to do with painting the map than economics. Morocco on the othger hand gives Germany a presence in the Med.

In the Far East, the victory in the Europe will come so quickly that Japan will not have time to occupy all the German colonies which they only managed by November 1914. They would have little chance holding on to their gains post war in any case unless Britain wants to continue the war for a handful of Pacific islands. Japan may be persuaded to "rationalise" some of its colonies with Germany in return for some of those island outposts which are worth more to them than Germany. I' m thinking of naval bases in Korea and / or Taiwan here. The possibility of an alliance with Germany replacing the one with Britain shouldn't be discounted either.

Oh - and reparations to Germany and dismantling of some forts.

In the East, Serbia is likely to get crushed in the war aftermath politically but not likely to be annexed. As Geon has foreshadowed, too much baggage. The Russian defeats at Tannenburg and Masurian Lakes should allow some minor gains for Germany and Austria Hungary but these may be traded away in return for acceptance of Austrian influence in Serbia. Let's remember that even after Tannenburg the Russians held more Austrian territory than Germany held Russian

 

[Deleted member 94680]

Nothing concrete, but something mentioned on various threads here on AH that Kaiser Wilhelm II wanted to make a proper state out of Elsass-Lothringen, and that he planned to offer the Grand Duchy to a Habsburg.

Making a "proper state" out of Elass-Lothringen undoes a lot of the rationale for the creation of E-L in the first place and offering the state to a Hapsburg would be political dynamite. I take it these other discussions are in the aftermath of an A-H collapse? This whole thing seems pretty suspect to me and I really can't see it happening.

 

[Help]

Making a "proper state" out of Elass-Lothringen undoes a lot of the rationale for the creation of E-L in the first place and offering the state to a Hapsburg would be political dynamite. I take it these other discussions are in the aftermath of an A-H collapse? This whole thing seems pretty suspect to me and I really can't see it happening.

I think it was he was friends with one who's children were not eligible for the Austrian throne, so there should be that issue.

 

[Deleted member 94680]

I think it was he was friends with one who's children were not eligible for the Austrian throne, so there should be that issue.

Wouldn't that "one" be Franz Ferdinand? He's kind of dead, so I doubt the idea is a goer.

Still, I can't see it. Allowing a Hapsburg into Kleindeutschland and placing them on the throne of a State? Risky in the extreme and what the hell is Bavaria or Saxony going to think?

 

[Derek Pullem]

Wild idea - would integrating Alsace-Lorraine with Luxembourg under the Grand Duchess but still part of the German Empire work. A bit like the status Bavaria had in 1914

 

[Geon]

Chapter 27: Joffre’s Folly​

August 28, 1914; Approximately 2 miles outside Paris: Joffre orders a 3-hour artillery bombardment starting at 6 A.M. to prepare for the resumption of his push toward Pontoise and the BEF. After three hours the French advance begins again. This time however the advance is slowed by very stubborn resistance. After two hours the front line has not advanced a single inch and losses are mounting rapidly.

At 2 P.M. Joffre orders a second 2-hour barrage. Once again, the order to advance is given. This time the detachments of the 4th and 9th armies advance all of 110 yards. The troops are near total exhaustion, but Joffre orders one final effort for the day. After a one-hour bombardment from 3 to 4 p.m. he orders another advance. No progress is made but the Germans launch a counterattack which throws the French army back a full ¼ of a kilometer.

Back in Paris Joffre is informed by his supply officer that at the rate they are using ammunition the artillery will be useless within six days, quite possibly less if the present pace continues. Small arms might last for two weeks, but if this offensive continues that estimate will also be adjusted downward.

The day’s action has brought no progress whatsoever for Joffre. Worse the casualties among the French are approaching horrendous. There is so far a total of 20,000 French casualties in what will become known as “Joffre’s Folly”.

Near Le Havre: General French orders the recommencement of the BEF offensive. After a three hour barrage the cavalry advances. But now they are running into stiffer German opposition. A full day’s advance barely yields a kilometer of ground. And French is becoming concerned at his own casualty figures. Unlike Joffre, French does pay attention to these “little things”. There have been over 5,000 casualties on the British side this day. French is seriously beginning to wonder if this whole counteroffensive is being used by the Germans to bleed the BEF dry.

Fontainebleau: French is correct. Von Kluck is using this battle to his words “bleed the life out of the French and English armies.” Right now, Von Kluck continues to concentrate on the French though the British too are running into stiffer resistance. Very soon he will launch his own counterattack and begin to tighten the ring around Paris.

 

[ßzizgfuiqgziwqfuwdg]

I have to disagree with those that think Briey-Longwy is too juicy to pass up on, while it would make sense from a strictly military/economic perspective, politically it is a no go. Adding Briey-Longwy to the Reich would mean giving them representation in the Reichstag, unless the constitution is changed (something the Reichstag will never agree to). While in 1912 parties opposed to the military/monarchical establishment won a majority, this had happened before, but through political maneuvering and the Kaiser's power to dissolve the Reichstag at a politically oppertune moment, the establishment was still able to produce majorities for their causes in the Reichstag if necessary, the election (Hottentottenwahl) of 1907 was a prime example. But adding Briey-Longwy to the Reich (and it's French voters) would tip the balance too far towards the forces opposed to the Kaiser and the establishment. In 1887, 1893 and 1907 the Reichstag was dissolved because it rejected the Kaiser's proposals regarding the funding of the military and each time parties supportive of the Kaiser's proposals won the following election. But it 1893 and 1907 the results were relatively close. Briey-Longwy's voters would be enough to make it impossible for the military to get the funding it needed (at least legally), setting the stage for a constitutional crisis similar to the one that allowed Bismarck to become chancellor of Prussia in the first place.

 

[Derek Pullem]

I have to disagree with those that think Briey-Longwy is too juicy to pass up on, while it would make sense from a strictly military/economic perspective, politically it is a no go. Adding Briey-Longwy to the Reich would mean giving them representation in the Reichstag, unless the constitution is changed (something the Reichstag will never agree to). While in 1912 parties opposed to the military/monarchical establishment won a majority, this had happened before, but through political maneuvering and the Kaiser's power to dissolve the Reichstag at a politically oppertune moment, the establishment was still able to produce majorities for their causes in the Reichstag if necessary, the election (Hottentottenwahl) of 1907 was a prime example. But adding Briey-Longwy to the Reich (and it's French voters) would tip the balance too far towards the forces opposed to the Kaiser and the establishment. In 1887, 1893 and 1907 the Reichstag was dissolved because it rejected the Kaiser's proposals regarding the funding of the military and each time parties supportive of the Kaiser's proposals won the following election. But it 1893 and 1907 the results were relatively close. Briey-Longwy's voters would be enough to make it impossible for the military to get the funding it needed (at least legally), setting the stage for a constitutional crisis similar to the one that allowed Bismarck to become chancellor of Prussia in the first place.

How many Frenchmen in Briey-Longwy? Compared to the 64 million in the Empire as a whole? The elections will not swing on a tiny additional French population