Let Them Pass

[Athelstane]

Brilliant Map, so handy.

Would you be able to add where the formed bodies of German troops are? That dotted red line is ostensibly what the Germans hold but I think that the only formed bodies of troops would be those directly opposite the French ones, the rest of the dotted line would be various detachments of smaller units, cavalry patrols etc. Opposite these would be French territorial units, some formed into bigger units and some even being small army in size like OTL Groupe DeAmade which at one point reached 4 territorial divisions and 2 reserve divisions in size.

Also I think the French 1st, 2nd and 3rd Armies would be stripped of corps, this is partly how the 6th and 9th Armies were formed IOTL.

1) I just do not know enough from @Geon's updates to say where they all are, beyond the fact that elements of Kluck's army apparently met up with Hausen's at Mulen. So I think Geon must flesh out the details. I tend to think most of Kluck's force is around Paris (esp. the eastern side) and screening the BEF up near Rouen, and that Bulow, Hausen, and Albrecht are (*very* roughly) advancing on the southern frontage from Montargis in the west to Châlons-en-Champagne to the east. But I can't say for sure, and that is why I left the German armies out.

2) I assume that 6th Army is being frantically formed (partly out of 1st, 2nd and 3rd armies, which gets to your point), but I don't know where it actually is. Most likely, I assume, between Fifth Army and Third Army, because that gap must absolutely be filled. What exactly Joffre had trying to screen out west past the Loing River, I have no idea.

 

[marathag]

So, in summary, I do think that the price that Wilhelm is going to have to pay for easy terms with France (and Britain) is going to be continuing a hard line against Russia, and getting some Russian territory out of the deal when the time comes, which I think is very unlikely before the end of the campaigning season in 1915. And even the growing SPD resistance we saw OTL by the end of 1914 is going to be less in evidence, after the surrender of France.

And of course, this will be reinforced by the mood in Vienna and Budapest, which definitely wanted to see some howling take place, as you say.

But if @Geon can somehow conjure up a set of developments which get a pro-easy peace consensus in Berlin by late September, then I tend to think what I said follows.

France was expected to be an Enemy to Germany, that's a given, after 1870.
That the British allied with them, a disappointment, but no real animus toward the people or the Country. They are Perfidious Albion, after all.

But Russia, they are the ones that left the Dreikaiserbund, the Union of the Three Emperors, and into the arms of France, all from Russian desires in the Balkans against Austria

And supported Serbia, cause of all the Balkan problems since 1905

Germany didn't want more Polish Territory, but a friendly, independent Poland, at Russia's expense, that might be done, but they would no longer be part of the Russian Empire, and same for Ukraine, for the bits not already in Austria

Serbia must be shrunken down to the original size of 1912, with larger, independent Albania, and land restored to Bulgaria.
goes without saying that the leadership of Serbia must be scourged and replaced, with a suitable Royal house to oversee it, and yes, huge Indemnities for both Serbia and Russia

 

[Athelstane]

Germany didn't want more Polish Territory, but a friendly, independent Poland, at Russia's expense, that might be done, but they would no longer be part of the Russian Empire, and same for Ukraine, for the bits not already in Austria

Serbia must be shrunken down to the original size of 1912, with larger, independent Albania, and land restored to Bulgaria.
goes without saying that the leadership of Serbia must be scourged and replaced, with a suitable Royal house to oversee it, and yes, huge Indemnities for both Serbia and Russia

If the history here were played out in five games of whist, I think something like what you say would be the outcome in four of them. (Perhaps some variability in the Russian indemnity, depending on the circumstances at the time...)

Whatever *we* think should be the best course to follow, the sentiments of the time are going to be what you have to work with, and they'd be challenging to overcome.

I think the minimum German demands are going to be what they're going to have physically in hand by mid-1915 anyway: Congress Poland (with a thick slice of Podlachia thrown in), Lithuania, and Courland, all presumably as protectorates or close military and economic allies, at any rate. And for Vienna, for Serbia to be reduced as you say (and the terms of the ultimatum fulfilled).

And after all, neither France or Britain will be in any position to do anything about it.

 

[Geon]

By the way, here is a head's up. I intend - hopefully - to continue the TL of Let Them Pass in a second TL/story once this is done to explore the ramifications of what happens in the post-World War I years. One spoiler - it's likely there will still be a World War II.

 

[MrCharles]

By the way, here is a head's up. I intend - hopefully - to continue the TL of Let Them Pass in a second TL/story once this is done to explore the ramifications of what happens in the post-World War I years. One spoiler - it's likely there will still be a World War II.

Interesting, I could easily see France as the aggressor ITTL in an alternate WW2!

 

[ferdi254]

I doubt the war in the east would continue as OTL. The French and British ambassadors will be all over St Petersburg and pulling all strings they have to get Russia to move armies against Germany asap.

 

[Athelstane]

I doubt the war in the east would continue as OTL. The French and British ambassadors will be all over St Petersburg and pulling all strings they have to get Russia to move armies against Germany asap.

But . . . I mean, yeah, in our timeline, they were frantically harassing them. I think after the fall of Brussels, Maurice Paléologue was lierally pleading daily with Sazanov to do *something* as fast as possible. "Think what a serious moment this is for France!" he shouted, on August 26. (I believe he gave the Russian court a one day reprieve once news came back of the disaster at Tannenberg).

But the Russians can't help. The destruction and defeat of the Russian First and Second Armies was the fruit of Russia's attempt to rush a diversion on France's behalf, and after that, they'll be several weeks away from being able to mobilize anything else for the German front.

 

[ferdi254]

Well the situation is much more grave by now so the Russians might get questioned if it was not time for armies planned to fight AH to instead fight Germany.

 

[marathag]

I doubt the war in the east would continue as OTL. The French and British ambassadors will be all over St Petersburg and pulling all strings they have to get Russia to move armies against Germany asap.

That was OTL anyway

 

[marathag]

Well the situation is much more grave by now so the Russians might get questioned if it was not time for armies planned to fight AH to instead fight Germany.

Only way is to grab the Russian 3rd or 8th Armies about to chase the Austrians all the way back to Lemberg, and reroute them North
This will save the Austrian position in Congress Poland

 

[marathag]

September 1st is where the Western Front start to effect the Easter Front and the Balkans.
Pulling a Russian Army or two against the Austrians to put more pressure on the Germans, that will save the Austrians from a terrible rout that ruined the Austrians for a year.
The Germans won't be sending the two Corps to the east, they need every man in the West to cover the 1st Army's supply lines in Northern France.

So at the cost of letting the Austrians off from a near knockout blow, can try to push to East Prussia, again

The Balkans, the Serbs used most of thier ammunition in holding off the austrians, and were resupplied with French munitions thru Greek ports.
Here, the French have nothing to spare, so is likely that Belgrade falls sooner, and the Serbs unable to counterattack and retake the Capital

 

[Athelstane]

Only way is to grab the Russian 3rd or 8th Armies about to chase the Austrians all the way back to Lemberg, and reroute them North
This will save the Austrian position in Congress Poland

It's a thought.

OTOH, the Battle for Galicia had basically left the Russians in the foothills of the Carpathians. The fear grew rapidly that they could stage a breakthrough onto the Hungarian plain, and even put Budapest in danger.

The thinking could be that the Russians are not going to be able to accomplish anything decisive against the much more efficient German Heer, but there may be a opportunity to create a threat to their ally that could force a diversion of German troops from the West. Not quite as visceral to chaps in Berlin as the conquest of Danzig, but not ignorable, either... (This is, after all, how the German 9th Army came into being in OTL.)

Of course, logistically we know that was very unlikely, and anyway wouldn't come in time to save the French...

 

[ferdi254]

Yep but the Russians may slso want the French to hold on longer because after Tannenberg they knew that having 4-5 German armies at their doorstep could be detrimental. So with the western powers pushing and the Russian fear of the German armies just such a move might be in the cards.

 

[marathag]

The thinking could be that the Russians are not going to be able to accomplish anything decisive against the much more efficient German Heer, but there may be a opportunity to create a threat to their ally that could force a diversion of German troops from the West. Not quite as visceral to chaps in Berlin as the conquest of Danzig, but not ignorable, either... (This is, after all, how the German 9th Army came into being in OTL.)

Even getting the Austrians to sue for peace on September 1st really won't save France, even if that was possible on that short of notice. Giving the Russian 3rd Army Jeeps and 2 1/2 ton trucks and the logistics to support that won't get them deep enough into Hungary to get Franz Josef to surrender so soon

Austria out of the fight doesn't pull the Germans away from Paris in a short enough timeframe. Only invading East Prussia, and then Berlin, would help

 

[Athelstane]

Even getting the Austrians to sue for peace on September 1st really won't save France, even if that was possible on that short of notice. Giving the Russian 3rd Army Jeeps and 2 1/2 ton trucks and the logistics to support that won't get them deep enough into Hungary to get Franz Josef to surrender so soon

Like I said, there's just not enough time. The French just won't last that long.

 

[Remington 2.0]

Would the Italian gain anything from France in the peace treaty by staying neutral ?

 

[Help]

Would the Italian gain anything from France in the peace treaty by staying neutral ?

Out of their goals Tunisia, Nice, and Savoy, only Tunisia seems likely. German needs a Western peace, and France would be as willing to sue if the mainland is threatened. When Germany plans to demand little, why spend political capital for Italy?

 

[Remington 2.0]

Will a defeated France go monarchist/Empire or become communist/Syndicalist after peace treaty or will the republic somehow survive?

 

[Athelstane]

Will a defeated France go monarchist/Empire or become communist/Syndicalist after peace treaty or will the republic somehow survive?

I think that depends on what the endgame looks like, both on the battlefield and how the internal poliical backlash unfolds. The one thing that seems high probability to me is that the Third Republic is toast.

Since Poincare's government was of the Left, I *tend* to think that the likely successor is going to be on the Right. But that wouldn't necessarily be Legitimist or Bonapartist - and given how weak both factions were in 1914, I suspect either is unlikely. I *tend* to also think, then, that the odds favor something closer to Boulangisme - some kind of authoritarian, confessional (and revanchist) Fifth Republic, in short. But to have Boulangisme, one must have a Boulanger, and it is not clear to me who that would be in 1914-15. Foch, maybe? I don't know French politics of that time well enough to say. It would be a very fluid situation.

 

[Geon]

Notes: First this next entry has a bit of a supernatural element in it in honor of the season.

Secondly, General French was noted for second-guessing both the French Army and his superiors. He really wanted to play defense when the French needed him to attack in the early months of the war so that is the basis for his thoughts here.

Please comment and enjoy.

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Chapter 25: Visions and Preparations​

August 26, 1914; St. Petersburg: It is after midnight on August 26th when three people meet in one of the many salons of the royal palace in St. Petersburg. Czar Nicholas II along with the Metropolitan of St. Petersburg, Archbishop Vladimir and finally Grigory Rasputin, mystic faith healer who has been ministering to the young czarevich Alexei’s hemophilia since 1905.

Vladimir is understandably skeptical of this meeting, but the Czar has insisted he attend. Vladimir knows that Rasputin follows a sect of the Church that is considered heterodox at best and that Rasputin’s lifestyle is far from that of the “holy man” he claims to be.

However, given that the Czar has asked for this meeting Vladimir has decided to reluctantly accept the invitation.

Tonight, both Vladimir and Nicholas note that when Rasputin is escorted in there is something that is wrong. Rasputin has a pale appearance and looks like he has not slept for two or three days.

After the formalities of greeting the Czar and the Archbishop are done Rasputin takes a moment to collect his thoughts then says.

“Your Imperial Majesty, and your Eminence, I humbly beg your forgiveness for asking to see you at this ungodly hour. But, given the present climate in St. Petersburg I felt, and His Imperial Majesty agrees with me that this matter should be brought up at an hour when none know of our meeting.”

“Two nights ago, while I was engaged in evening prayer a vision most terrible came to me. In that vision I saw the nation of Russia going forth to war. I saw her brave sons marching to meet the Germans only to be cut down like rows of wheat before the scythe. Again, and again I watched as brave Russian men stormed the German bulwarks only to fall before the guns of the Germans.”

“As the vision progressed, I saw Russian mothers, widows, and children crying out in grief for their lost sons and husbands. And in their cries, they were cursing you, your Imperial Majesty I am sad to say.

“As I watched a famine gripped the Russian steppes, on account of the lack of men to till the fields. And as a result of the famine many cried out for bread and there was none.”

“Then I saw the people rise up. They overthrew the monarchy and the Czar, and his family were taken prisoner by brutal and evil men who blaspheme God. And these brutal and evil men came to control all the motherland. And I saw these men put the Czar and his family to death and destroy many of the holy churches throughout our land so that the people had no succor.”

“Thus, the vision ended. And afterward I spent long hours pondering it and if I should reveal it to you. It is as I warned you a month ago. If this war continues the monarchy will fall and Russia will enter a time of great hardship and terror the like of which she has not seen before. This war must end soon. Or the vision I have seen will surely engulf the motherland.”

The Metropolitan Vladimir considered for a moment and said, “Your Majesty, if I may speak?” “Of course, Eminence,” said Czar Nicholas, not sure what to say to what Rasputin had just revealed.

“Brother Rasputin, your vision is indeed frightening and unsettling. But, what proof can you give us that this vision is truly a divine one?

Grigory Rasputin considered for a moment. “Your Eminence, I realize my behavior has not been that of one supposedly devoted to God. But I will say this, what I saw in that vision has convinced me that God is giving final warning to His people in Russia that this war is an affront to Him. Near the end of the vision I clearly saw the number ‘1914’ appear before me. And I did not so much hear a voice as I got the impression that when this year is passed if there is no peace then the events I saw will become more and more certain.”

Czar Nicholas II frowns and says nothing but is thinking on what Rasputin said. His wife greatly admires Rasputin as a holy man and to be sure because of Rasputin his son has seemingly improved and survived several crises since the faith healer was invited into court back in 1905. Nicholas II knows that support for the war is still high. But there are elements in Russia that are waiting to pounce if the Russian Army suffers a serious defeat. The monarchy is not considered the power it once was and voices for revolt are growing. Rasputin’s vision has planted the seeds of doubt in his mind that perhaps this war is a mistake and some way out must soon be found before things truly run out of control.

Le Havre, France: General John French is making final preparations for his upcoming counter-offensive which will start on August 27th. But the man is no longer as confident of success as he once was. Paris is surrounded and General French is convinced that the war in France is practically over. He wonders whether it is wise to shed British blood for a lost cause.

However, a day ago Lord Kitchener arrived to do a surprise inspection of the troops. Later at North’s HQ when North shared his misgivings about the upcoming counter offensive Kitchener responded that this may well be the last chance Britain has of influencing the outcome of the war. Kitchener goes on to point out that German hegemony in Europe will “not be to the best interests of the British Empire or its people.” Therefore, he has gone on to state that this counteroffensive must succeed.

French reluctantly agrees but he knows it will not be an easy fight. The Germans know the British have embarked at Le Havre and have been moving troops to the area to intercept any offensive. French has already ordered light probing attacks along the outskirts of Le Havre to test for German weak points. He hopes that he will be able to punch through German lines to Paris quickly.