KMT Victory; Could The Soviets Prop Up Manchuria Similar To US and Taiwan?

[AltoRegnant]

OTL, with the defeat of the KMT and the flight to taiwan, the US Navy and USAF was a big part in keeping the country alive, even after we stopped actively recognizing it. So, i was wondering if in a KMT victory, the Soviets could use the Red Army and the air force to keep the communist forces in Manchuria around? something like this:

Would the Soviets hold more influence over the CCP ttl, and what that might mean when kreshev and mao start getting snippy? How would manchuria itself proper develop ttl? When the soviets falter, would reunification be on the cards, or would the KMT china be disinterested in the prospect due to anything from seeing the region as too poor, or anti-manchu racism, or something ele? Would the unrest that gripped the Warsaw pact also extend to northeast Asia TTL?

Due to China's status as a great power and highly controversial actions I want to remind people of the no current politics rule.

 

[Nephi]

That looks almost like Manchuria is the PRC, most of their stronghold was in Manchuria, lots of Japanese weapons too, so basically Stalin marches in, sets up the PRC and ends the Chinese civil war himself, which if somehow he could see how China one day becoming a rival, the rest ends up a capitalist "free" China, that still grows into a US rival, and probably always claims the PRC, when the USSR falls they reunify.

 

[AltoRegnant]

That looks almost like Manchuria is the PRC, most of their stronghold was in Manchuria, lots of Japanese weapons too, so basically Stalin marches in, sets up the PRC and ends the Chinese civil war himself, which if somehow he could see how China one day becoming a rival,

yeah that was basically my thinking. the question was if it was plausible and could maybe last

the rest ends up a capitalist "free" China, that still grows into a US rival, and probably always claims the PRC, when the USSR falls they reunify.

given the KMT's corruption to this point and until Ceng Kai Shek's death. I'm not entirely certain on that.

 

[Gillan1220]

It's basically a reverse Korea situation then.

 

[Wesley_Lewt]

Wouldn't they integrate it as an SSR and part of the Soviet Union rather than have it as a puppet? 'Chairman Mao, you have failed me for the last time...'

At that time I doubt they saw China as a threat that they needed buffer states with the way they saw West Germany.

The international agreement during WW2 was that Russia would get Manchuria as it was Russian territitory which had been taken in a war of aggression by The Japanese Empire during the Russo-Japanese war. If the writing were on the wall RE a KMT victory would the Russians not try insisting on sticking to the letter of that agreement?

I agree with other posters that a KMT China would be deeply unstable without a unifying enemy like Japan.

 

[Gillan1220]

Wouldn't they integrate it as an SSR and part of the Soviet Union rather than have it as a puppet? 'Chairman Mao, you have failed me for the last time...'

At that time I doubt they saw China as a threat that they needed buffer states with the way they saw West Germany.

The international agreement during WW2 was that Russia would get Manchuria as it was Russian territitory which had been taken in a war of aggression by The Japanese Empire during the Russo-Japanese war. If the writing were on the wall RE a KMT victory would the Russians not try insisting on sticking to the letter of that agreement?

I agree with other posters that a KMT China would be deeply unstable without a unifying enemy like Japan.

China was tired of foreigners. Even as Mao was a communist, no way he would have tolerated Manchuria as a Soviet puppet.

 

[Wesley_Lewt]

China was tired of foreigners. Even as Mao was a communist, no way he would have tolerated Manchuria as a Soviet puppet.

Mao would have been replaced if he lost the civil war and no way can defeated Chinese Communists retreating to Manchuria stand up to The Soviet Army.

 

[seraphim74]

1. IMO PRC in Manchuria would NOT be incorporated into USSR, for the same reasons no Central-East European country was IOTL after 1945 (except Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia, but they were "swallowed" earlier). More votes in UN (although PRC would probably recognized for quite some time), less work for Soviet military and security apparatus and keeping local population more docile (we still have a country of our own, we were not conquered by the foreign devils, even if they are our comrades). Not to mention pretty much every potentially communist country would be worried about incorporation. And of course the Chinese communists would not be happy about it either.
2. I think that the Soviets would be able to defend PRC from KMT China; IOTL KMT lost the war, so even if Chang wins, it should be a close thing. Therefore he would not be able IMO to face the Soviet Army. But the border between both Chinas would be one of the most fortified in the world (on both sides).
3. With PRC being reduced more or less to a Soviet satelite, I think Mao would be either compliant to the Soviets (to some point) or quietly eliminated. He actually could be removed from power even earlier - after all, ITTL he LOOSES the civil war, so his authority and popularity would be significantly diminished. If the Soviets prefere someone else as the leader of the PRC, they should be able to change it by supporting (or creating) an anti-Mao faction. If the Chinese do not do it themselves.
4. With Red China reduced so much I'm not sure if the Korean War happens at all, and if so, it can be very different. Would Kim start the war? IOTL both US forces in South Korea were weak and disorganized and North Korea could hope for a quick victory, but ITTL South Korea can almost certainly count on KMT China to help them fight the communists. I think it would be too risky both for Kim and Stalin. Mao'sopinion (if he ist still the leader of PRC) will not so relevant. Red China troops will be too busy protecting their own land to help North Koreans.
5. I think PRC in Manchuria might be surprisingly a little more liberal than North Korea; the Soviets will prefer them to be so, and their support will be vital. I predict something more like East Germany, with cult of the leader seriously diminished. Hey, even North Korea might be somewhat different, since they could not make Red China and USSR compete against each for influence.
6. About reunification: 40 years is a long time. Who knows what KMT China looks like in 1990s? Corrupt military/authoritarian regime? Perhaps even if PRC renounces communism (doubtful, more likely is Deng's way) they would prefer to remain the country of their own and try that strange thing called democracy. It would be funy if in early 2000s we have authoritarian dictatorship in KMT China and young democracy in former Red China.

 

[skarosianlifeform]

I don't think there would be reunification. Not only because there would have been 40 years of ideological, economical and political difference, but also because the "PRC" would likely have promoted a Manchu identity.

 

[Deleted member 2186]

It's basically a reverse Korea situation then.

And a Communist Manchuria will work closely with North Korea as it helps them survive.

 

[RousseauX]

I don't think there would be reunification. Not only because there would have been 40 years of ideological, economical and political difference,

This is far from certain to me, the post cold-war scenario resulted in unification in some places (East Germany) but also non-unification in others (DPRK/Taiwan)

The other thing to think about is irredentist ideology from "mainland" Republic of China. The nationalists are going to want to "reunifying" all Chinese territory in line with what imperial dynasties had done in the past (this is also what the CCP promoted otl sincde 1949). If the Soviets collapse as per otl then there isn't really that much preventing the RoC from trying to crush the rump Communist state.

but also because the "PRC" would likely have promoted a Manchu identity.

That would have being interesting, but also undercut their pretensions to control all of China during the cold war.

 

[RousseauX]

Would the Soviets hold more influence over the CCP ttl, and what that might mean when kreshev and mao start getting snippy?

Ceaușescu's Romania wit large is probably what would happen.

It's also possible that the PRC start pursuing its own version of reapproachment with the RoC along the "ostpolitik" period of East-West German relations in response

 

[Nephi]

yeah that was basically my thinking. the question was if it was plausible and could maybe last

given the KMT's corruption to this point and until Ceng Kai Shek's death. I'm not entirely certain on that.

It depends on who comes to lead them, one thing I can say about China is never underestimate them.

They always have the potential and will to rule the world, and eventually they often figure out how to do just that.

 

[jlckansas]

Stalin supported Chiang with operation Zet with the point to eliminate the Mao led communists in China under the KMT. If Mao was to be independent from Soviet control earlier, I could see him letting the KMT beat the Chinese Communists. Chiang in a mess of China is better than a Mao led PRC that goes their own way.

 

[Alanith]

1. IMO PRC in Manchuria would NOT be incorporated into USSR, for the same reasons no Central-East European country was IOTL after 1945 (except Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia, but they were "swallowed" earlier). More votes in UN (although PRC would probably recognized for quite some time), less work for Soviet military and security apparatus and keeping local population more docile (we still have a country of our own, we were not conquered by the foreign devils, even if they are our comrades). Not to mention pretty much every potentially communist country would be worried about incorporation. And of course the Chinese communists would not be happy about it either.
2. I think that the Soviets would be able to defend PRC from KMT China; IOTL KMT lost the war, so even if Chang wins, it should be a close thing. Therefore he would not be able IMO to face the Soviet Army. But the border between both Chinas would be one of the most fortified in the world (on both sides).
3. With PRC being reduced more or less to a Soviet satelite, I think Mao would be either compliant to the Soviets (to some point) or quietly eliminated. He actually could be removed from power even earlier - after all, ITTL he LOOSES the civil war, so his authority and popularity would be significantly diminished. If the Soviets prefere someone else as the leader of the PRC, they should be able to change it by supporting (or creating) an anti-Mao faction. If the Chinese do not do it themselves.
4. With Red China reduced so much I'm not sure if the Korean War happens at all, and if so, it can be very different. Would Kim start the war? IOTL both US forces in South Korea were weak and disorganized and North Korea could hope for a quick victory, but ITTL South Korea can almost certainly count on KMT China to help them fight the communists. I think it would be too risky both for Kim and Stalin. Mao'sopinion (if he ist still the leader of PRC) will not so relevant. Red China troops will be too busy protecting their own land to help North Koreans.
5. I think PRC in Manchuria might be surprisingly a little more liberal than North Korea; the Soviets will prefer them to be so, and their support will be vital. I predict something more like East Germany, with cult of the leader seriously diminished. Hey, even North Korea might be somewhat different, since they could not make Red China and USSR compete against each for influence.
6. About reunification: 40 years is a long time. Who knows what KMT China looks like in 1990s? Corrupt military/authoritarian regime? Perhaps even if PRC renounces communism (doubtful, more likely is Deng's way) they would prefer to remain the country of their own and try that strange thing called democracy. It would be funy if in early 2000s we have authoritarian dictatorship in KMT China and young democracy in former Red China.

The PRC would never be recognized by the UN. A permanent member of the security council is claiming it as a legitimate province under foreign occupation.

 

[RousseauX]

Stalin supported Chiang with operation Zet with the point to eliminate the Mao led communists in China under the KMT. If Mao was to be independent from Soviet control earlier, I could see him letting the KMT beat the Chinese Communists. Chiang in a mess of China is better than a Mao led PRC that goes their own way.

It's a possibility one of the PODs put more Soviet aligned CCP members in power instead of Mao.

If rump PRC is particularly dependent on Soviet aid maybe Stalin could have removed Mao in the early 50s. But the CCP even when it was on the ropes was pretty resistant of Moscow attempts to dominate it. And Tito/cescau/Hoxha etc showed Soviets could not just remove any Communist leader he wanted.

 

[Yuhaoyang]

Interesting，I have been pondering about the "Communist Manchuria versus Republic of China" scenario quite a lot recently. Here are my thoughts：

Soviet Union definitely wouldn't annex Manchuria because it alone had almost the same population as all Non-Russian SSRs and could destroy the inner balance of Soviet politics.

Of course this PRC and CCP would be much more dependent on CCCP support，with Mao probably removed even before he started any ideological shenanigans.

Couldn't be highly popular to the people of Manchuria at the start，but overtime it would stabilize and prosper，having much better living standards than ROC and thus built up legitimacy. Because Manchuria is the perfect territory to build Soviet-style industrialization and socialism.

But if Soviet Union collapses as per OTL，it's chance to remain independent of ROC is slim because said CCP government would still sell it self as "The Rightful China" rather than "Independent Manchuria Reborn". Reunification with ROC would be much more painful than East-West Germany though，leaving unerasble scars on Manchuria and they would begin to have strong PRC nostalgia.

 

[Derff]

Soviets would definitely hold on Manchuria, maybe Mengjiang and Xinjiang too.

 

[skarosianlifeform]

Soviets would definitely hold on Manchuria, maybe Mengjiang and Xinjiang too.

Oh, if Manchuria remains a communist island separate from China, then Menjiang (now part of Mongolia) and Xinjiang likely follow.

 

[Terço]

If Manchuria becomes a communist country like East Germany, Poland, Hungary, and the other countries in the Warsaw pact, it would probably be the second strongest state after Soviet Union because it as all the conditions to be a industrial power and if many Chinese communists move to Manchuria it would be the second in population, only surpassed by Soviet Union.
It's somewhat hard to me to say that a strong Han state industrialized would tolerate being a Russian satellite, it probably wouldn't and would develop its own industrial military complex and would make North Korea its own satellite due to the mineral resources of Korea.
After 1989, Manchuria would probably go its own way and modernize taking advantage of the Korean reunification.
Maybe not a western style democracy, but muscled Asian democracy, that evolves into a society close to the Korean or Singaporean.
Xinjiang, or Eastern Turkestan, as it would be called, could be annexed to the Soviet Union as one of the Central Asian Republics and maybe the Han communists that don't move east to Manchuria move west to the Eastern Turkestan and the other central Asian Soviet Republics, establishing a strong Han minority in the Soviet Union.