Keynes' Cruisers Volume 2

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Driftless

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Fester's universe has tipped the entire movie industry on its ear. OTL movies that won't be made, and ITTL movies that will be made. The British will have some "Monty of Malaya" film(s), the Americans will have some version(s) about the "Boys of Bataan" with Gary Cooper playing Gen'l Wainwright. "Casablanca", "Wake Island", "They Were Expendable", "Desert Rats", "Sink the Bismark", etc, etc either don't get made or are significantly different. There's a laundry list of OTL films on that kind of bubble and an equally long list of alternative titles.
 
Fester's universe has tipped the entire movie industry on its ear. OTL movies that won't be made, and ITTL movies that will be made. The British will have some "Monty of Malaya" film(s), the Americans will have some version(s) about the "Boys of Bataan" with Gary Cooper playing Gen'l Wainwright. "Casablanca", "Wake Island", "They Were Expendable", "Desert Rats", "Sink the Bismark", etc, etc either don't get made or are significantly different. There's a laundry list of OTL films on that kind of bubble and an equally long list of alternative titles.

We could start a whole thread for movies from www.alternatehistory.com TLs.
 
Story 1729
December 25, 1942 North Atlantic

HMS Biter turned back into the wind. A Swordfish circled the carrier waiting for the deck to clear. Another Swordfish with depth charges hanging from shackles took off in the seas that would have kept any front line aircraft on the deck. A gust of wind aided the last few moments of the transition from rolling to flying. The deck was clear and the Swordfish came down. Minutes later, the exhausted pilot and the exuberant flight crew were handed fresh, hot tea and pats on the back. Another U-boat sunk. This time, the kill was achieved without cost as the roving Swordfish had spotted the surfaced boat twenty two miles in front of the convoy during a break in the low lying clouds. The depth charges broke through the pressure hull and the crew had jumped into life rafts. One of the older destroyers had gone to full speed to pick up the prisoners.

Biter’s support group was claiming a trio of U-boats in the past thirty six hours. One had been sunk by the cooridnated attacks of both Swordfish and destroyers, another was solely attributrable to a Hedgehog launch from an escorting destroyer while this last kill was solely an aeriel kill. The close escort of the slow convoy had been successful with four more U-boat kills. It was not cost free; a corvette had been torpedoed and sent to the bottom with almost all hands while seven merchant ships had been hit as well. Two were still straggling towards Canada while the rest had either been scuttled or abandoned.

Huff-Duff operators listened closely to the radio silence. A few hours later, a new instruction from the Admiralty routed the convoy slightly further north to avoid the last wolf pack. The escorts and the support group succeeded in fighting another convoy through.
 
Story 1730
Tunis, Tunisia December 25, 1942

This was not home. The food was not home. There were no presents under the few trees that had not been knocked down for fuel or fortifications. There were no cousins running under foot. There was only a badly tuned piano instead of an organ and a choir. A private with long fingers and tone deafness belted out a tune as Hotel Company had their Christmas dinner.

William Jaroschek looked at the ham and mashed potatoes and cranberries on his plate as he tried to find a seat. His platoon had carved out a corner of the mess tent and he headed that way. The National Guard division had spent the last few days processing the surrender of the Italians in front of them. They had only been on the line for thirteen days of combat before the surrender and now the infantry companies were slowly being pulled back from policing duties and into training camps.

Today they could rest.

Today they could celebrate.

Today they could pray for their squad mates who had died and visit their friends in the evacuation hospitals.

Today they could pretend they were not at war.

It was an illusion but for a few minutes, it was an illusion that the young private would indulge in.
 
If I counted right it appears that the Kriegsmarine lost 7 U-Boats in total in their attack on the large slow convoy. The Allies have developed an effective response to the wolfpack tactics. The Battle of the Atlantic has reached its turning point about 6 months earlier in TTL.

Also occurring about 6 months earlier than OTL is victory in North Africa. The defeat and surrender at Cap Bon of the last of the German and Italian forces in North Africa. These are two mighty big butterflies indeed.

What still needs to be done to open the Mediterranean for cargo ships to use the Suez canal? So as they won't require a large naval escort force and heavy air cover? The capture of Sicily? And Sardinia? The invasion of Southern Italy?
 
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formion

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Convoys with surface and air cover can use the Sicilian Narrows after the fall of Cap Bon. When Sicily is captured then these convoys will be safer. But to use the Med with minimal air and surface cover, then I think we would need a total collapse of the italian war effort, similar to the OTL armistice or with Allied armies in the peninsula. If the Italians are in position to scout and send a squadron of SM-79 torpedo bombers then a convoy with no air cover will be in serious truble.
 
If I counted right it appears that the Kriegsmarine lost 7 U-Boats in total in their attack on the large slow convoy. The Allies have developed an effective response to the wolfpack tactics. The Battle of the Atlantic has reached its turning point about 6 months earlier in TTL.

Also occurring about 6 months earlier than OTL is victory in North Africa. The defeat and surrender at Cap Bon of the last of the German and Italian forces in North Africa. These are two mighty big butterflies indeed.

What still needs to be done to open the Mediterranean for cargo ships to use the Suez canal? So as they won't require a large naval escort force and heavy air cover? The capture of Sicily? And Sardinia? The invasion of Southern Italy?

Probably the capture of Sicily. Even if it doesn't outright knock Italy out of the war, if the Allies can take and station forces in Sicily, the Italians and Germans would loose a number of key airfields and port and harbor facilities needed to operate in the Med. With Allied controlled airfields on Sicily, it would put German and Italian airfields and ports in range of tactical aircraft, not just long range bombers and recon plains.

I don't know ITTL if landing on the Italian mainland would be worth it, but depending on whether or not Italy surrenders, Corsica, Sardinia, and a few other smaller islands could possibly be taken with little or no serious resistance.
 
After securing North Africa this early, I don’t know if the allies have sufficient landing craft to go for Sicily yet.
They might grab Sardinia/Corsica first until they build up the amphibious capability.
 

Driftless

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I don't know ITTL if landing on the Italian mainland would be worth it, but depending on whether or not Italy surrenders,
  • Under the prevailing conditions, does a successful invasion of Sicily cause Mussolini to be ousted?
  • Or, does it take a successful landing and some ground gains on the mainland to provide sufficient leverage to kick him to the side?
  • IF Mussolini gets ousted on the basis of losing Sicily alone, what happens? (No Allied forces on the mainland - at least initially)
    • Does a significant German force roll down the penninsula in place of the Italian Armies? (I'm assuming there's some level of Italian force that stays in the fight - willing or otherwise)
    • Which is better from the Allied perspective: let the Germans occuypy Italy and tie up a large number of troops and planes occupying yet another country, or fighting their way up country as was done OTL?
 
With the army and navy both worse off than OTL, I put good odds on Italy suing for peace after Sicily and Sardinia are lost.

Absolute best case, Italy keeps negotiations secret and a couple divisions are unloading in Rome before Berlin knows what is happening.
 
Sardinia was considered as a alternative to Sicily and I think the French and US might want to go for it as a stepping stone for France. Also should an invasion of mainland Italy be needed it gives them more options on where.
 
With the army and navy both worse off than OTL, I put good odds on Italy suing for peace after Sicily and Sardinia are lost.

Absolute best case, Italy keeps negotiations secret and a couple divisions are unloading in Rome before Berlin knows what is happening.

Now that would be quite a coup. But too good to be true even in alt-history I'm afraid. The Hermann Goering division is already deployed in Italy.
 
There are no real alternatives to taking Sicily, because doing so opens the Med up to shipping, which is even more important ITTL because the British have a larger commitment going in the Far East than OTL. What impact it has on Italy is almost irrelevant.
 
Sardinia was considered as a alternative to Sicily and I think the French and US might want to go for it as a stepping stone for France. Also should an invasion of mainland Italy be needed it gives them more options on where.

But I think Sicily must still be taken to open up the Med for minimally escorted(ASW) merchant ships.
 
The main question is do the have the shipping, manpower, and time given that more resources are probably needed in Asia and if they did knock out Italy by an invasion north of where they did in OTL that probably means a fairly small force would be needed for Sicily.
 
The main question is do the have the shipping, manpower, and time given that more resources are probably needed in Asia and if they did knock out Italy by an invasion north of where they did in OTL that probably means a fairly small force would be needed for Sicily.
OTL Sicily was always seen as a stepping stone to Italy so not as important if you only want to open the Med, but that objective, does need the airbases on Sicily neutralized. Once North Africa falls Sicily and Malta swap places tactically, its Sicily that now threatens supply lines whilst Malta is a means to strangle Sicily.
The allies can bring the big guns into play and bombard Sicily by air and sea counting on Malta and African bases. It then depends on if the Axis pull back to defend the mainland and effectively write Sicily off or if they try and keep rebuilding units. In the first Sicily can be taken with fewer forces than OTL , in the latter then it can be used as a running sore to bleed Axis forces. Both approaches mean Italy may try and leave the war as morale will be rock bottom given the quicker defeat in Africa ( Eastern front losses will not be helping either ).
 
As I said given the deeper involvement in Asia do they have the troops to do so? OTL they invaded with a force of 2 armies which was nearly as big as the force landed on d-day.
 
As I said given the deeper involvement in Asia do they have the troops to do so? OTL they invaded with a force of 2 armies which was nearly as big as the force landed on d-day.
I need to go do a good nose count again but most of the Commonwealth forces in 11th or 14th Armies are either forces lost in Q1 1942 or divisions already getting pulled out of North Africa to head East in 1942. One of the Regular Army divisions is a pure diversion. 7th Armoured is IIRC a partial diversion but the rest are forces that never were available in H2 1942 north Africa. They are in better shape than OTL with far less wastage in Greece, no major surrenders and minimal French Levant and Iraq reconquest campaigns.
 
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