Keynes' Cruisers Volume 2

[Draconis]

If the 20th Air Force Urban Redevelopment units are flying out of the Marianas, they need it because of the reason IOTL. You have it almost at the right spot for emergencies and for escorts to fly from.

In TTL Tinian and Saipan have been captured by the Americans in December 1943. However as fester posted recently the B-29s aren't ready. If fact earlier in this storyline fester had posted that the B-29 program would follow an ATL schedule similar to OTL. This is due to the PODs in Keynes Cruisers not greatly influencing the development of the B-29. So you would not expect the B-29s to begin operations until about May 1944. @fester If I've misremembered this detail about the B-29 in your TL please correct me.

So from Tinian to Tokyo (a useful reference point) it's about 1500 miles. And Iwo Jima lies very close to the flight path and also close to the halfway point for missions flown from the Marianas. Iwo Jima would be an important objective in those circumstances.

But despite the Northern Marianas being in American hands 7 months earlier then OTL they aren't useful for the bombing campaign yet. Six months further along in May 1944 in TTL the B-29s maybe beginning operations. They could operate from Saipan and Tinian. But what other things might have changed by then? I would think by that point Clark Field would be available for B-29 operations. It's not any closer then the Marianas for missions targeting Japan though. From Clark AFB to Tokyo is about 1800 miles.

But Okinawa is ideally situated for B-29 operations. From Naha to Tokyo is about 950 miles. This is close enough to permit fighter escorts for the length of the entire mission.
All of Japan can be reached from Okinawa by B-29. Also Korea and most of China. It's a large island with plenty of room for the construction of large airfields in the coastal areas close to the ports and harbours.

It would take a full scale amphibious operation to take Okinawa. But in TTL with the growing strength of the USN and the heavily depleted IJN, much more depleted then OTL at this point, I would think the capture of Okinawa is a reasonable and practicable objective in TTL for an ideal base from which to conduct the strategic bombing of Japan. Could it be taken in the first half of 1944?

 

[fester]

In TTL Tinian and Saipan have been captured by the Americans in December 1943. However as fester posted recently the B-29s aren't ready. If fact earlier in this storyline fester had posted that the B-29 program would follow an ATL schedule similar to OTL. This is due to the PODs in Keynes Cruisers not greatly influencing the development of the B-29. So you would not expect the B-29s to begin operations until about May 1944. @fester

But despite the Northern Marianas being in American hands 7 months earlier then OTL they aren't useful for the bombing campaign yet. Six months further along in May 1944 in TTL the B-29s maybe beginning operations. They could operate from Saipan and Tinian. But what other things might have changed by then? I would think by that point Clark Field would be available for B-29 operations. It's not any closer then the Marianas for missions targeting Japan though. From Clark AFB to Tokyo is about 1800 miles.

B-29 development and deployment is, in TTL vs OTL, plus or minus a few weeks. The big change in B-29 theory of operations is that there is no intention of running them out of China even as TTL logistics to support such an operation are only bad instead of insane. The Burma Road is open so fuel and bombs can be trucked into central China instead of flown in but there will be no need to conceptualize something like Operation Matterhorn.

At this time, the USN wants to make sure that there is a clear sea lane to Manilla Bay so that supplies can be shipped from California-Hawaii-Central Pacific-Manilla instead of California, Hawaii, Samoa, through the Sunda Straits to Singapore and then up the South China Sea and then to Manilla. That basically would cut the shipping miles in half and reduce the entire trip by 30% to 40% depending on how efficient the port of Manilla is in unloading cargo.

There is significant debates going on in Hawaii, Washington and London about the most effective way to do this. Some people want to grab Palau, others are thinking about the western Carolines. A few people are advocating bypassing those islands and fighting convoys through anything staged out of Formosa etc. Once this objective is achieved, the USN is having a very significant debate about whether they need to attack Formosa and the China coast before jumping up to the Ryukyu Island chain. There is a further argument about whether or not an invasion of Japan is necessary or if the USN and RN with some USAAC support blockade the Japanese Empire to impotent starvation.

 

[fester]

Corpus Christi, Texas December 22, 1943

Josh rolled over. His wife was tucked in close to him. The baby in the bassinet was a few feet away from them both. He had finally started to sleep consistently through the night. His fingers twitched and Margaret's body responded to the accidental stimulation by throwing an elbow into his ribs. He smiled an early morning relaxed smile as he had just been cleared for flight a few weeks ago and he had been able to get orders to go back to Corpus Christi to help train up another batch of new Marine Corps and Navy pilots. Most of the instruction was still on the ground, but at least three or four days a week, he was able to enter the sky in a Corsair and smoke a few shit-hot rookies who were making rookie mistakes. And when he was on the ground, his very curious daughter monopolized all of his time asking questions and beseeching to be swung high into the air. Last night, she tried to argue that she was not tired in between yawns and that another story was the only thing that she needed.

This lull would only last for so long as the frontline squadrons needed replacements and reinforcements and there were only so many highly experienced men working their way through the combat force generation pipeline. He would not be surprised if he received orders to head to San Francisco or Seattle to join a squadron aboard one of the brand new fleet carriers but until then, he would enjoy these few minutes to himself.

 

[NHBL]

That scene shows the fundamental difference between the USA and Japan: We rotated the good pilots out to teach the next generation, they didn't. Hence Germany and Japan had a few pilots with unholy kill figures, but a lot of undertrained ones. (Lack of fuel is no help, either.)

 

[fester]

Subic Bay, Luzon, December 23, 1943

Patrick Donohue fingered his cap with the new rank insignia on it. He was now an officer and the platoon was his. A replacement 1st Lieutenant had taken over the company when the division was resting but he had done well enough to be given a platoon permanently. He took one last smoke, and then finished his coffee. He was done censoring his men's mail. A big stack was ready to go to be shipped back to the states. Four letters to his wife would soon join the literary outpourings of factory workers, electricians, mechanics, shoe-shine boys, paper carriers and high school athletes who had become temporary soldiers.

Twenty minutes later, the platoon was marching down to the docks. Every man was heavily overloaded as they marched up the gangways of the small assault ships. The Navy would escort them out and then up the west coast of Luzon before they would land behind the Japanese lines and seize a critical point in their fragile supply chains.

 

[Colin Haggett]

Subic Bay, Luzon, December 23, 1943

Patrick Donohue fingered his cap with the new rank insignia on it. He was now an officer and the platoon was his. A replacement 1st Lieutenant had taken over the company when the division was resting but he had done well enough to be given a platoon permanently. He took one last smoke, and then finished his coffee. He was done censoring his men's mail. A big stack was ready to go to be shipped back to the states. Four letters to his wife would soon join the literary outpourings of factory workers, electricians, mechanics, shoe-shine boys, paper carriers and high school athletes who had become temporary soldiers.

Twenty minutes later, the platoon was marching down to the docks. Every man was heavily overloaded as they marched up the gangways of the small assault ships. The Navy would escort them out and then up the west coast of Luzon before they would land behind the Japanese lines and seize a critical point in their fragile supply chains.

Not bad for someone who was rejected as unfit by the regular army.

 

[Sam R.]

You know the Soviet Union isn’t going to invade Manchuria in time. There’s going to be a horrific crime against humanity in the home islands. A standard second year question will be about capacity for culpability between the US-UK commanders versus the Japanese elite. This will probably bring the “responsibility to protect” conception of the white mans burden forward and lead to multipolar peacemaking missions in post imperial states.

And even more messed up vets from the occupation.

 

[fester]

On the boundary of 8th and 5th Armies, Northern Italy December 24, 1943
"Got some chocolate?"

"Sure, you have some jelly?"

The haggle then started between Corporal Jaroshek and a trio of riflemen from an Irish regiment. The four men soon roped in several other friends to create a long chain of mutual needs that could be met. Over the course of an hour, the Americans got sweets and booze while the Irishmen received chocolate, a fresh steak and several cartons of brand name cigarettes. Even as the logistics management and intelligence sharing session moved from a street corner to a bar where the Irishmen looked at shocked amazement at the concept of cold beer as a desirable good, good will prevailed. Critical intelligence was passed between the representatives of the two armies as to what houses of negotiable affection had been approved by medical staff and which had the best combination of price and flexible girls.

The war was far away from the men that night, even as Long Tom battalions in the corps rear fired harassment and interdiction missions. The war was far away that night even as a slightly drunk corporal had to pull a private back as he attempted to cross the street as an ambulance carrying three broken men went through the town. The war was far away that night even as the ghosts of men who they had known for a year or more haunted them in between rounds. The war was far away for at least another day.

 

[Driftless]

......to a bar where the Irishmen looked at shocked amazement at the concept of cold beer as a desirable good, good will prevailed.

Waaay back in the days of my youth in the previous millennium, like most North Americans of my generation(Australian's too?), I would have described beer that was anything other than ice-cold as being "piss warm". I've since expanded my beer temperature tolerance range to international standards.

 

[baldipaul]

Critical intelligence was passed between the representatives of the two armies as to what houses of negotiable affection had been approved by medical staff and which had the best combination of price and flexible girls.

Shades of Terry Pratchett

 

[Draconis]

You know the Soviet Union isn’t going to invade Manchuria in time. There’s going to be a horrific crime against humanity in the home islands. snip

It does look like the blockade of Japan may be in place close to a year earlier then OTL. Which would lead to mass starvation starting with the civilian population. But only if the war continues well into 1945. Who says it has to? Things have proceeded far differently for Imperial Japan here. No conquering of the Southern Resource area. No humiliation of the British Empire with the mass surrender at Singapore. No great naval victories for the IJN. The IJA bogged down in China with no victory in sight.

I would think these ATL events would weaken the political strength of the militarists. And toward the end of ATL 1944 as the hopelessness of the situation is driven home by the U.S. and Allied naval blockade and the largely uncontested bombing of Japanese cities the ATL discredited militarists grip on power is further weakened enough that their insistence on fighting "to the last" can be disregarded and ignored. Perhaps it wouldn't even require an armed coup to replace the government but that would still be a possible option.

One wonders how the diplomacy would play out in that situation.

 

[fester]

Chongquing, China, December 24, 1943

The 3rd Fighter Group had officially stood back up this morning. They had handed in four dozen older Curtiss fighters and a dozen old Republic odd-balls that no one else in the world had wanted for anything besides high altitude photo-runs. In turn, six dozen new Republic monsters had been Lend-Leased to the Chinese government. The pilots, and far more importantly the ground crews had been flown first to Calcutta and then to Karachi for eight weeks of familiarization. The pilots had then flown the big beasts in stages to the home airfield. It had changed in the time that they had departed; three new batteries of Browning 37 millimeter anti-aircraft guns were emplaced around the airfield, displacing two dozen machine guns that had previously been the primary air defense of the large complex. Two miles away, half a dozen three inch guns had occupied a small hill where they could cover both the airfield and one of the key arsenals. Both the light and heavy anti-aircraft guns were tied into an American manned radar network with both air search and gun control radars liberally deployed. Fuel drums had been stockpiled in large trenches, and the fighters entered the landing pattern just as another two hundred and thirty truck convoy from Burma arrived.

 

[Driftless]

Are the "old" Republic odd-balls, the P-43's the AVG fiddled with for a time? Are the "new" Republic monsters P-47's?

 

[Draconis]

Are the "old" Republic odd-balls, the P-43's the AVG fiddled with for a time? Are the "new" Republic monsters P-47's?

I think so. Razorbacks I would imagine.

"In turn, six dozen new Republic monsters had been Lend-Leased to the Chinese government. "

 

[Butchpfd]

You know the Soviet Union isn’t going to invade Manchuria in time. There’s going to be a horrific crime against humanity in the home islands. A standard second year question will be about capacity for culpability between the US-UK commanders versus the Japanese elite. This will probably bring the “responsibility to protect” conception of the white mans burden forward and lead to multipolar peacemaking missions in post imperial states.

And even more messed up vets from the occupation.

Using a Nuclear weapon to end the war with Japan, will save 10s of thousands of allied dead, 100s of thousands of allied casualties , and millions, if not the near depopulation, of Japan through combat casualties and starvation. These are researchable facts..

 

[Donald Reaver]

How soon can that bomb show up, no reason it will arrive sooner. Japan is far worst off in losses and lack of gains so far. If not an invasion, at least a blockade before the bomb is ready.

 

[Sam R.]

Using a Nuclear weapon to end the war with Japan, will save 10s of thousands of allied dead, 100s of thousands of allied casualties , and millions, if not the near depopulation, of Japan through combat casualties and starvation. These are researchable facts..

No they’re not facts. You’re presenting one highly tendentious but credible interpretation. Also, even if the Soviet panic and Manchurian collapse are of no weight, by the time Keynes bomb turns up—conditional on the Great Yamato fascist cult holding power—quite a large number of people will have been eaten.

 

[fester]

North Atlantic, December 25, 1943

In some ways the sailors aboard HMS Pansy were glad that their Christmas meal would be delayed until the slow convoy arrived in Liverpool. A big bird with all the fixings and plenty of pudding would taste far better hot, dry and stable than whatever a 22 year old cook could produce in a too small galley aboard a ship that wanted to roll over in a mill pond on a summer day. Instead, that cook kept the tea hot and donuts available as work gangs came back into the few covered areas aboard the ship every half hour or so. They were keeping ahead of the accumulating ice from the sea spray even as the ASDIC operators listened for German submarines. The rest of the convoy struggled onwards at a steady eight knots. The convoy commander had decided that the bad weather would allow for them to cease zig-zagging as no U-boat wanted to be near the surface in these waves.

 

[mudhead]

...tea hot and donuts available...

Kye, as well as tea. Not sure that donuts [sic] were much available.

Tea and stickies is a mid-afternoon tradition: any kind of stodge will do, as long as its sweet.

Ancient joke:
Q: What's brown and sticky?
A: A stick.

 

[fester]

Haarlam, Netherlands, December 25, 1943

No one should be corpulent. At least no native citizen of the Netherlands. A few fat Germans should be expected but rations had been tight since the conquest of their country three and a half years ago. Christmas dinner was mostly turnips. A few slices of meat from a trapped cat had been a treat to the two sisters.

The young woman, her bright red hair hidden under a brown wool cap, leaned against into the wind. A rough gray skirt kept her legs warm against the ever advancing damp cold. She ducked her head as a robust Dutchman walked heavily past her. As he passed, he slapped her ass, taking his pleasure by his right. She could do nothing at the moment. She could only grunt and take a step forward. At least no one else was walking with that walrus.

A moment later, she walked down the alley at a rapid pace. She saw her sister and nodded. The target was confirmed. Her younger sister was the bait. Her coat was open and her slightly more pronounced cleavage visible even in the cold. She shivered as she waited for the mark. They knew that he liked his women young and this play had been successful more than once. A few hours later, the body would be disposed of in a canal, heavily weighed down with rocks and all identifying items taken off of him. The girls had claimed the five hundred calories of sweets, the pack of Turkish cigarettes and the half liter of schnapps as their due.

No one had ever suspected a few pretty, slight, girls of being killers. That would not change today.