Keynes' Cruisers Volume 2

[Draconis]

RE: Japanese Air Assets in the PI.... I have to imagine that the PI are swiftly becoming the absolute bottom of the supply and reinforcement queue for the Japanese Empire. First off, there's the war in China, then the fronts vs the British and American's to the south and east. Then probably home defense... I'm curious as to where the Japanese are getting these massive air assets everyone keeps going on and on about, for what is, by all accounts, an intensely quiet, unimportant, backwater front. And especially one where they've simply chosen to let the Americans wither as long as they don't make too much noise. Some air units? Yes. But I suspect they'll be busier bombing the holdouts on Bataan instead of maintaining a 24 hour, 360 degree surface search.

There will be Japanese ASW patrols flown from the P.I., Borneo and Indochina out over the South China Sea. Any Allied ships more that a few hundred miles N.E. of Malaya out from under the Allied air umbrella would likely be spotted during the day and their location and direction reported. But they would likely not trigger an air attack that far from anywhere. But when they are spotted closer in to the Philippines then I would think an attack would be mustered up. Even if it's just a dozen Val dive bombers that would be a big threat.

That's why speed and using the night to the best advantage are critical to avoid heavy losses even to a diminished air defence. To make it difficult for any Japanese air attack to locate their target.

 

[fester]

Darwin, December 9, 1942

No ship could safely move without a pilot. The harbor was crowded. Eight former warships were still loading at the piers. Task and load masters went through lists. Crates were shuffled. Some were merely moved from one hold to another or put back on the dock so that something could underneath it. Other crates were taken from one ship and moved to another. Each ship was expected to carry a complete mixture of supplies. If one sank, that would just be a percentage of cargo lost and not any critical item. Every category of item was on at least three of the ships; the more important items were at the top of the holds and would be the easiest to unload in the dark or from a damaged ship.

Admiral Spruance and his cruiser force were taking on fuel and making the dozen minor repairs any ship needed much less a warship that expected to be entering danger. The admiral was ashore meeting with Admiral Hart who had been appointed the Allied Commander of the Southwest Pacific Region with command responsibilities running from Bali to Makassar to the central line of the Sulu Sea all the way to the southern tip of Formosa and then back to the east until immediately north of Palau. From that island, the dividing line between his command and Nimitz’s command was a southeasterly line running to boundary between the Dutch and Australian controlled portions of New Guinea. He had an American corps and a Dutch corps under his command as well as an ad-hoc Australian division recovering from the fighting on Timor. 800 aircraft were in the region and Admiral Spruance was his fighting admiral afloat. The other admiral present in the day long meeting at city hall was the Royal Navy’s Admiral Somerville. He and Spruance had gotten along splendidly. The planning sessions for the next set of operations were going well as hard but honest questions were already finding problems with the draft plans.

 

[fester]

Northwest Pacific, December 10, 1942

Five aircraft carriers, three battleships and ten cruisers guarded by twenty two destroyers plowed through the seas. Fighter patrols had already splashed two snoopers the day before. A light cruiser and a destroyer each could claim a kill against the picket line of patrol boats. The sun was due to rise in half an hour.

Three carriers were preparing their Sunday punches of a dozen Wildcats, three dozen Dauntlesses and a dozen Avengers. One third of the Avengers carried torpedoes, the rest had bombs to lug. Lexington was the scout and patrol carrier while Saratoga would hold back her strikers in case an anti-shipping strike needed to be assembled. As the sun attempted to poke through the low lying clouds hugging the horizon, almost two hundred aircraft were being thrown into the air. Most circled the carriers of the Pacific Fleet and waited for their comrades before they headed southeast to hit the Japanese held Marcus Island. This was not the first time the island had been raided. Privateers and B-24s from Wake had been raiding the island in section and squadron strength raids for month. The big bombers were usually able to come in high and attack before ground alert interceptors were able to scramble. There were few standing fighter patrols anymore as intercepts had indicated an increasing tendency to conserve aviation fuel.

Three hours later, almost all of the attackers had come back. Three freighters were now on the bottom and the pier had been demolished. Most of the airfield was either on fire or in ruins while an 8,000 foot pillar of smoke marked a fuel dump. As the American carriers turned back out of the window, radio silence was deliberately broken to give the Combined Fleet a quick fix and Pearl Harbor a full report of the success of the raid. The carriers turned and began moving back to Wake Island’s protective patrol cover.

 

[fester]

East bank of the Don, December 10, 1942

A Panzer fired. The heavy shell streaked towards a sloppily driven Churchill tank. It missed as the driver skidded to the right a few milliseconds before the shell would have slammed into the forward drive wheels. Instead, the German shell hit the ground a few dozen meters behind the tank and the fuse failed as the foreign laborers and slaves had successfully managed to sabotage a munition that their conquerors, oppressors and overseers needed. Four six pounders fired back at the rapidly retreating German tank. Three missed. One was defeated by the armor although the loud reverberating gong deafened the driver. The German tank continued to retreat as the Soviets pursued. The bridgehead that the 6th Army had been holding open was only a few miles away and already heavy artillery had started to exact a toll on the crossing point.

As the Lend Lease tanks turned slightly to get a better angle on the German Panzer, a battery of 88 millimeter guns fired at almost point blank range. Two tanks were destroyed in the first salvo, another was destroyed in the second while the last surviving tank went into reverse initially before hiding behind the flaming hulls of their dying comrades. Machine guns blasted in the general direction of the shielded guns that were already moving to another position. Three German Panzer IVs now started to advance as a local counter-attack was pressed to the utmost.

When midnight came, the last remnants of the Romanian army that had failed to hold the flanks had managed to cross the Don River. Two German divisions were tasked to hold the Eastern bridgehead for another day as the rest of the 6th Army which had been besieging Stalingrad only a week ago continued to cross in relatively good order despite losing a third of their artillery and half of their motor transport during the retreat. The cordon could hold here as supplies were beginning to arrive again and the Luftwaffe had started an air bridge to deliver critical ammunition and spare parts to the rear guards.

 

[Driftless]

Northwest Pacific, December 10, 1942
As the American carriers turned back out of the window, radio silence was deliberately broken to give the Combined Fleet a quick fix and Pearl Harbor a full report of the success of the raid. The carriers turned and began moving back to Wake Island’s protective patrol cover.

Not only whack 'em hard in their backyard, but also flip them the bird on the way out. A nifty way of getting the Japanese to look at the shiny object in the Central Pacific, while they're getting whacked in Burma and Malaya, and getting squeezed out of the southern DEI. Which direction should they look? And where is the fuel to respond to any of those threats?

 

[Byzer Bob]

(Snip) Which direction should they look? And where is the fuel to respond to any of those threats?

Surely one more offensive to take the oil fields which when used to fuel the fleet will surely lead to the all important decisive battle........... old board roll-eyes for correct interpretation of this comment

 

[Draconis]

Not only whack 'em hard in their backyard, but also flip them the bird on the way out. A nifty way of getting the Japanese to look at the shiny object in the Central Pacific, while they're getting whacked in Burma and Malaya, and getting squeezed out of the southern DEI. Which direction should they look? And where is the fuel to respond to any of those threats?

Yeah. Trying to lure out the IJN. If the attacks are damaging enough than the Japanese Admirals must order a response.

 

[Draconis]

Darwin, December 9, 1942

No ship could safely move without a pilot. The harbor was crowded. Eight former warships were still loading at the piers. Task and load masters went through lists. Crates were shuffled. Some were merely moved from one hold to another or put back on the dock so that something could underneath it. Other crates were taken from one ship and moved to another. Each ship was expected to carry a complete mixture of supplies. If one sank, that would just be a percentage of cargo lost and not any critical item. Every category of item was on at least three of the ships; the more important items were at the top of the holds and would be the easiest to unload in the dark or from a damaged ship.

Admiral Spruance was his fighting admiral afloat. The other admiral present in the day long meeting at city hall was the Royal Navy’s Admiral Somerville. He and Spruance had gotten along splendidly. The planning sessions for the next set of operations were going well as hard but honest questions were already finding problems with the draft plans.

I wonder where they will be going with those ships? High speed heavily armed transports and a cruiser force.

 

[Draconis]

East bank of the Don, December 10, 1942

When midnight came, the last remnants of the Romanian army that had failed to hold the flanks had managed to cross the Don River. Two German divisions were tasked to hold the Eastern bridgehead for another day as the rest of the 6th Army which had been besieging Stalingrad only a week ago continued to cross in relatively good order despite losing a third of their artillery and half of their motor transport during the retreat. The cordon could hold here as supplies were beginning to arrive again and the Luftwaffe had started an air bridge to deliver critical ammunition and spare parts to the rear guards.

This isn't going to be the collapse that OTL Stalingrad was for the German 6th Army. Withdrawing in good order to better defensive positions to hold for the winter and rebuild. It's going to continue to be a harsher war for the unfortunate Russians.

 

[diestormlie]

Fighter patrols had already splashed two snoopers the day before.

Now I think of it, the IJN Doctrine of running it's scout/Recce aircraft from it's cruisers means that they're especially vulnerable to losses in those aircraft, because

A) They're different types of Aircraft (and Floatplanes besides, so it's not like Jury-Rigging can be sufficient for conversions.)
B) Institutional inflexibility (Carrier Aircraft at for STRIKES!) means that even when they're out of Floatplanes, they won't want to use their precious Carrier Aircraft for scouting.

 

[Driftless]

Surely one more offensive to take the oil fields which when used to fuel the fleet will surely lead to the all important decisive battle........... old board roll-eyes for correct interpretation of this comment

Exceedingly difficult under the current circumstance, but those oil fields were their longtime strategic goal. They're screwed without that oil, so......

They'll need to steal Army manpower from somewhere (China?, Luzon?). That also puts the Japanese naval force between two powerful carrier armadas and the further south they go, increasingly powerful allied land-based air forces too. I suppose their tactical theory might be that splitting the Allied fleets allows for the Japanese to defeat one fleet in detail, then move against the other. That could be problematic if both Allied fleets converge on the Japanese at the same time. If the Japanese try to face the one in strength, the back door remains wide open to the other. If they try to cover both fleets simultaneously, they're going to be crushed. Ooof.... Of course, the Allies could oblige the Japanese and not act in concert, but ITTL we have top Allied commanders who work well together.

 

[fester]

Exceedingly difficult under the current circumstance, but those oil fields were their longtime strategic goal. They're screwed without that oil, so......

They'll need to steal Army manpower from somewhere (China?, Luzon?). That also puts the Japanese naval force between two powerful carrier armadas and the further south they go, increasingly powerful allied land-based air forces too. I suppose their tactical theory might be that splitting the Allied fleets allows for the Japanese to defeat one fleet in detail, then move against the other. That could be problematic if both Allied fleets converge on the Japanese at the same time. If the Japanese try to face the one in strength, the back door remains wide open to the other. If they try to cover both fleets simultaneously, they're going to be crushed. Ooof.... Of course, the Allies could oblige the Japanese and not act in concert, but ITTL we have top Allied commanders who work well together.

The USN and RN are not operating under firm centralized control but they are in active synergistic interactions where they are taking advantage of the fact that they get to choose when and where to jab and when and where to withdraw. The USN/RN can temporarily concede the critical battle space at any point whenever they need/want to while the IJN has to be able to dominate the battle space whenever they sortie. The IJN has to win every time while the USN/RN only need to poke. As the Allied armies, navies and air forces of the Malay Barrier build their strength, maintaining current positions/operations including 4 engine strategic bombing raids, is an acceptable outcome for the Allies. It might not be an optimal outcome, but it is acceptable. It is a horrendous outcome for the Japanese. They have to change the status quo. And their challenge is that the status quo trend is forever becoming more unfavorable to the Japanese as more Allied formations arrive in the region with better equipment, more training and increasing stiffening by an ever increasingly cadre of combat hardened veterans distributed at all points of the training and operations pipeline.

 

[Driftless]

And their challenge is that the status quo trend is forever becoming more unfavorable to the Japanese as more Allied formations arrive in the region with better equipment, more training and increasing stiffening by an ever increasingly cadre of combat hardened veterans distributed at all points of the training and operations pipeline.

And by late 1942, hadn't the Japanese hoped to have a better element of control on their perimeter AND to have the Allies knocked around enough where they'd be willing to make concessions? Neither condition is looking good, and as you note, the scales are increasingly tipping against them. So, I'm gathering that the Japanese are likely to go for the bold stroke as soon as carriers and capital ships are out of the body and fender shops and there are enough planes and aircrews to make the risk acceptible.

Somerville, Hart, Nimitz, etal can all read maps and intelligence estimates and interpret the big picture. The code breakers on the Allied side likely play a critical role in how the details of this pending big fight shapes up.

 

[Butchpfd]

Darwin, December 9, 1942

No ship could safely move without a pilot. The harbor was crowded. Eight former warships were still loading at the piers. Task and load masters went through lists. Crates were shuffled. Some were merely moved from one hold to another or put back on the dock so that something could underneath it. Other crates were taken from one ship and moved to another. Each ship was expected to carry a complete mixture of supplies. If one sank, that would just be a percentage of cargo lost and not any critical item. Every category of item was on at least three of the ships; the more important items were at the top of the holds and would be the easiest to unload in the dark or from a damaged ship.

Admiral Spruance and his cruiser force were taking on fuel and making the dozen minor repairs any ship needed much less a warship that expected to be entering danger. The admiral was ashore meeting with Admiral Hart who had been appointed the Allied Commander of the Southwest Pacific Region with command responsibilities running from Bali to Makassar to the central line of the Sulu Sea all the way to the southern tip of Formosa and then back to the east until immediately north of Palau. From that island, the dividing line between his command and Nimitz’s command was a southeasterly line running to boundary between the Dutch and Australian controlled portions of New Guinea. He had an American corps and a Dutch corps under his command as well as an ad-hoc Australian division recovering from the fighting on Timor. 800 aircraft were in the region and Admiral Spruance was his fighting admiral afloat. The other admiral present in the day long meeting at city hall was the Royal Navy’s Admiral Somerville. He and Spruance had gotten along splendidly. The planning sessions for the next set of operations were going well as hard but honest questions were already finding problems with the draft plans.

Ki

Good to se Thomas Hart get some deserved service and recognition. In our time line Hart was shuffled off stateside because of politics,

 

[mudhead]

...the Luftwaffe had started an air bridge to deliver critical ammunition and spare parts to the rear guards.

ITTL the Luftwaffe is less committed in the Med - the transport wings took some brutal losses IOTL supplying 5 Panzer Army in Tunisia, at the same time as failing to keep 6th Army going. So they should better here.

 

[fester]

ITTL the Luftwaffe is less committed in the Med - the transport wings took some brutal losses IOTL supplying 5 Panzer Army in Tunisia, at the same time as failing to keep 6th Army going. So they should better here.

The Luftwaffe transport groups also missed the meat grinder of the Crete assault

 

[fester]

Tyndall Air Field, Florida, December 11, 1942


Another batch of somewhat promising trainees came through the gate. The squadrons based here had become experts at transforming men who had passed basic and primary flight training into effective shooters. This batch would be no different as the maw of combat chewed up combat trained pilots like an osprey’s mother went through food for her chicks. The only difference this time was cluster of forty Frenchmen who were now in the pipeline to man a new fighter squadron equipped with American planes but under Free French controlled. At least half of those men needed to pass even if they needed extra effort.

 

[Dathi THorfinnsson]

Imagining the Free French being sent Canada instead, and learning all their aviation vocab with a Québecois accent. And swearing in Québecois....

 

[Alanith]

Exceedingly difficult under the current circumstance, but those oil fields were their longtime strategic goal. They're screwed without that oil, so......

They'll need to steal Army manpower from somewhere (China?, Luzon?). That also puts the Japanese naval force between two powerful carrier armadas and the further south they go, increasingly powerful allied land-based air forces too. I suppose their tactical theory might be that splitting the Allied fleets allows for the Japanese to defeat one fleet in detail, then move against the other. That could be problematic if both Allied fleets converge on the Japanese at the same time. If the Japanese try to face the one in strength, the back door remains wide open to the other. If they try to cover both fleets simultaneously, they're going to be crushed. Ooof.... Of course, the Allies could oblige the Japanese and not act in concert, but ITTL we have top Allied commanders who work well together.

China? Steal manpower from the REAL War? You'd end up assassinated for suggesting such.

 

[Unknown]

Glad you mentioned Tyndall Air Force Base; Hurricane Michael decimated that airfield, similar to what Andrew did to Homestead AFB in 1992...