Keynes' Cruisers Volume 2
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Formosa also doesn't have many ideal spots to actually land on.
I would think its simply a matter of getting a defensible port conected with mainland Nationalist Chinese, once they have that US LL (lots of mostly surplus for Europe older kit) will simply start to make the Chinese war very expensive for the IJA who would start to collapse and at that point even Japan might really try to give up as its all lost anyway?
Japan didn't give up OTL til the country was a smoldering, starving wreck (and even then some nuts wanted to fight on). They're not giving up ITTL for a while longer I'm afraid to say.
@Curtain Jerker : They will need to be seriously beaten down, but blockade/mining/bombing to starve them and reduce military potential while Germany is finished off does much and sheds as little Allied blood as possible
You are correct, Area Firebombing every urban area in Japan was exactly what the Americans did in OTL
but don't try to shift the blame onto Harris
This was the LEMAY method ...
chosen because the B-29 proved unable to reliably hit Japanese targets from height during the day
or to conduct any form of precision attack by night until properly equipped and trained with electronic aids
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formion
Banned
From the british point of view, an advance to China would be an anathema. Also, I don't think the british policy makers would care much about the FIC. If the army groups can secure a few bridgeheads in south FIC, like Saigon etc, so that Singapore is outside of land bomber range, it's more than enough. The Commonwealth armies won't bleed to secure the whole french holdings. An advance in Sarawak and Brunei is more likely, since they will recover valuable british assets.
These strategic objectives won't need the 15-17 divisions they currently have in theater. The Indian Army is expanding smoothly without the disasters in Singapore and Burma. The deployment of Indian troops is easier also with a diminished Bengal famine. The Australians likewise have not lost almost the entirety of the 8th Division. Thus, the development of Commonwealth armies is vastly more advanced ITTL. I think some African troops have been sent already and so the 2 African Divisions may be either formed or forming.
I would guess that British divisions and perhaps a couple Indian would be sent in the Mediterranean. A Greek campaign has been mentioned in the previous posts. ITTL UK has literally all the advantages that didn't possess in OTL to land in Greece: a) Crete with 4 airbases, b) the Dodecanese, c) More manpower in general and in particular in the form of the surviving Greek Corps, d) More shipping (we have seen since 1941 bigger convoys than OTL).
Especially if the Italians collapse completely, a huge gap will be formed in Greece and the Commonwealth troops will be a few hours steaming away from almost undefended ports.
These strategic objectives won't need the 15-17 divisions they currently have in theater. The Indian Army is expanding smoothly without the disasters in Singapore and Burma. The deployment of Indian troops is easier also with a diminished Bengal famine. The Australians likewise have not lost almost the entirety of the 8th Division. Thus, the development of Commonwealth armies is vastly more advanced ITTL. I think some African troops have been sent already and so the 2 African Divisions may be either formed or forming.
I would guess that British divisions and perhaps a couple Indian would be sent in the Mediterranean. A Greek campaign has been mentioned in the previous posts. ITTL UK has literally all the advantages that didn't possess in OTL to land in Greece: a) Crete with 4 airbases, b) the Dodecanese, c) More manpower in general and in particular in the form of the surviving Greek Corps, d) More shipping (we have seen since 1941 bigger convoys than OTL).
Especially if the Italians collapse completely, a huge gap will be formed in Greece and the Commonwealth troops will be a few hours steaming away from almost undefended ports.
With a decreased oil supply much earlier, the ability to train pilots even for a takeoff and a one way flight is much reduced over OTL. In addition, an earlier bombing campaign means that a greater percentage of the fuel supply will be earmarked for fighters for air defense (as crappy as it was). OTL Kamikazes were only effective when you had a large concentration of ships in a relatively limited patch off ocean. This started with attacks in the PI and was most effective off Okinawa where you had a relatively short distance to go and a large collection of ships in a restricted area. Kamikaze attacks were always large waves, and I don't believe that the surface groups that shelled shore targets on the Home Islands were ever subject to significant Kamikaze attacks. The system was not set up to launch kamikaze attacks to "targets of opportunity" and the pilots were not skilled enough to find ships in small groups moving freely. A regular attack, if it failed to find the target, could return to fight another day - the pilots of the Tokko units would be extremely lucky to find their way back and be able to land, assuming they hand enough fuel for a round trip which was not usually the case - why waste the gas?
Like OTL the Japanese were going to save their designated aircraft for when they had the sorts of targets where they could be used effectively, not waste them chasing after single ships or even relatively small groups who are not tied to a particular patch of water.
Once the ring closes around Japan, and until the atomic bomb shows up or OLYMPIC is possible (which could be a bit earlier than OTL say mid-late summer 1945), the Allies in the Pacific are absolutely not going to waste blood and treasure just to say some spot or other is now "liberated". Frreing territory where Japanese presence is a threat to Allied operations, going after areas with valuable resources to take back and deny to Japan, liberating territories with strategic or emotional value for the owners (think Guam, PI for the USA, maybe HK for the Brits) is fine. There is also, sadly, a bit of racism here - "why are American (white) boys dying to "liberate" yellow Chinese or brown/black natives on some Pacific atoll?
FWIW seizing a Chinese coastal port does little to help the Chinese. If there is Japanese held territory between HK and the main Nationalist forces, all the supplies in the world do no good.
Like OTL the Japanese were going to save their designated aircraft for when they had the sorts of targets where they could be used effectively, not waste them chasing after single ships or even relatively small groups who are not tied to a particular patch of water.
Once the ring closes around Japan, and until the atomic bomb shows up or OLYMPIC is possible (which could be a bit earlier than OTL say mid-late summer 1945), the Allies in the Pacific are absolutely not going to waste blood and treasure just to say some spot or other is now "liberated". Frreing territory where Japanese presence is a threat to Allied operations, going after areas with valuable resources to take back and deny to Japan, liberating territories with strategic or emotional value for the owners (think Guam, PI for the USA, maybe HK for the Brits) is fine. There is also, sadly, a bit of racism here - "why are American (white) boys dying to "liberate" yellow Chinese or brown/black natives on some Pacific atoll?
FWIW seizing a Chinese coastal port does little to help the Chinese. If there is Japanese held territory between HK and the main Nationalist forces, all the supplies in the world do no good.
From the Greek point of view a Greek campaign would be most convenient of course. In the grander scheme of things I suspect it would be secondary to the campaign in Italy. Depending on how fast the allies move the Germans could try holding either on the Olympus or roughly along the lines of the Macedonian front of WW1. Of course they would need to keep Bulgaria in line but this between incentives (like leting Bulgaria annex Thessaloniki) and pressure is probably doable for a time. Still liberating most of Greece from 1943 hardly hurts and opens possibilities for post war Yugoslavia...
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HK and the other strategically unimportant allied locations can be recovered after Japan surrenders.
I would not even have defended HK beyond a tripwire force - which could have been the HK Volunteers etc
What about a much larger Operation Shingle, and make it a largely British affair?
So withdraw the British Divisions from the Far East leaving the Australian, Indian and African Divisions to continue the fight in that region
Leave the AFVs for the 1st Australian Armoured Division and have the 2nd AIF as the core of the Imperial forces in region
Requip the 2 British armoured divisions in the Med?
No way. If the UK don't have boots on the ground in the region and use only troops from the Empire, it will will colapse.
In the political game to maintain the Empire and UK's power, you can't gives the impression you're only willing to spend empires blood.
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I am talking about the 2 armoured divisions - about 1/3 of a average Indian Division is British (3 of its 9 battalions or 1 per brigade were usually British - although later Divisions might be fully Indian) - the majority of the Artillery in theatre is likely to be British, RAF...mostly British - this may change as both the Indian army and Australian army grow their more specialised arms ie Artillery and Engineers
As it was OTL the majority of ground forces in the Far East were Indian anyway so not sure why this would trigger a sudden collapse of the Empire?
formion
Banned
I wholeheartedly agree with this assessment. The most probable line is the Olympus one. If the Germans encounter more problems with the single rail line they will have to use to send troops from Belgrade to the Aegean, then the old WW1 front becomes a possibility also.
On the logistics issue, I forgot to mention a certain butterfly from the open Burma Road: The Hump. Hundreds of Dakotas become available for use in other fronts along with all the accompanied infrastructure that had to be built from scratch in India. Just imagine 100-120 additional Dakotas for the Med landings in spring 1943. Supporting any landings becomes just a bit easier. Considering also that USS Wasp is pretty much afloat and has gained experience in the Norwegian Sea and with (2?) more RN carriers avaiable TTL, the Allied offensive arm is even more stronger.
The second butterfly from Burma Road is the lack of deployment of Chinese armies in Burma. Corruption won't change but tens of thousands of relatively well-equipped and trained men become available to blunt any ATL Ichi Go. Considering they were perhaps the best Chinese troops available, perhaps they could even spearhead an offensive in south China.
It's certainly not something that's often noticed, but being Chinese myself (I'm from Hong Kong originally), I did do some digging out of interest. According to Chinese sources, American and Chinese troops got on immensely well, and many became friends. There was surprisingly very little incidents of racism between both parties. It's very touching, really.
Most of the interactions were in the Burma theater, I believe, and in Yunnan. One interview from a Chinese soldier mentioned that he was still friends with fellow American CBI veterans, and some had liked China so much they'd moved to Chinatown to live near their pals.
It's a nice subversion that contrary to all the bickering and fighting going on at the high command level, at the ground level the interactions were very positive.
If any of you are interested, check out the book Under the Same Army Flag, which is an anthology of recollections from Chinese troops in Burma, particularly the US-equipped New 1st Army, by far the best Nationalist divisions in China. It's in English, and a valuable source.
Apologies if this is getting the thread terribly off-track, this aspect of the war is something that I deeply enjoy studying.
Most of the interactions were in the Burma theater, I believe, and in Yunnan. One interview from a Chinese soldier mentioned that he was still friends with fellow American CBI veterans, and some had liked China so much they'd moved to Chinatown to live near their pals.
It's a nice subversion that contrary to all the bickering and fighting going on at the high command level, at the ground level the interactions were very positive.
If any of you are interested, check out the book Under the Same Army Flag, which is an anthology of recollections from Chinese troops in Burma, particularly the US-equipped New 1st Army, by far the best Nationalist divisions in China. It's in English, and a valuable source.
Apologies if this is getting the thread terribly off-track, this aspect of the war is something that I deeply enjoy studying.
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I don't think there is any "getting the thread terribly off track" when the topic that the author, Fester, is covering is all of World War Two...and doing a hell of a job of covering every aspect of it. If he doesn't cover it someone following his story may well bring it up. I thought I was pretty well versed in the "real war"...not even close, and to think I needed to go to an alternate history site to really learn the intricacies of the war...and to get to discuss it with fellow geeks, nerds or afficianadoes (choose the word that best fits).
Oh, it's just because IRL and on the internet, I have a bit of a tendency to go on tangents. I'm glad people are interested, though.
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