"Io Mihailŭ, Împĕratul Românilor" - A Michael the Brave Romania Wank

[Zagan]

I don't think there ever was a tax on what religion you practice in Romania.

In OTL:
- until 1862 the Romanian Principalities and 1862 - 1877 Romania did not have any Muslims, Catholics or Protestants, only some Jews - no tax;
- 1878 - 1913 - a few Muslims added (Northern Dobrudja) - no tax;
- 1913 - 1919 - a lot of Muslims added (Southern Dobrudja) - no tax;
- 1919 - 1940 - Catholics and Protestants added (Transylvania) - no tax;
- 1941 - 1944 - Some laws against the Jews, including higher taxes, so basically, yes it was (well, the official distinction was racial, not religious, but anyway).
- 1945 - 1989 - Communist Romania, religions persecuted but no supplimentary taxes.
- 1990 - Present - Democracy.

 

[Zagan]

Because of an (interesting) prior discussion about (relative) military strength and later about its correlation (or lack thereof) with population, I decided to make a more comprehensive table in Excel and upload it here.

Relative Military Strengths of the World's Countries

Notes:
1. Most of the population data outside Europe are estimations and some of them may be way off. If you have better population data, please tell me.
2. The military strength values are invented by me and correspond to the presentation in the TL.
3. The military strength values are presented in arbitrary units, obtained by setting the strongest European Army (Germany) to 100 and the strongest European Navy (Britain) to 100.
4. The Air Power column is unnecessary now, because besides a few Romanian Balloons there is obviously no real Air Force. I arbitrarily set Romania to 1 and all the others to 0.
5. Only Independent Countries (ex. China), Protectorates with sufficient leeway (ex. Levant) and Independent Peoples with no unified State (ex. Mongols) or no State structures at all (Australians) are included. Dependent territories (ex. Croatia) or Colonies (British North America) are included with the Power they depend / belong to.
6. Country Name = Unified Country; People Name = Lots of Countries or no State structures.

If anything is still unclear, please ask.

(1 KPosts so far in thread )

EDIT: As @Sian had correctly pointed out, the Scandinavian Navy should have been a little stronger.

 

[Sir Omega]

I don't think there ever was a tax on what religion you practice in Romania.

Actually, if I remember right (and consider the 3 Principalities as Romania) in Transylvania taxes were increased on Romanian orthodox noblemen by the Hungarian heavy Transylvanian Diet, but I don't know if the distinction was made on ethnic, religious, or purely political criteria.
For the life of me, I can't remember where I have read it, so it may not be completely accurate.

 

[fluttersky]

1. It had already been decided in the Great Powers Council (a sort of proto-UN for the powerful European countries) that all of Europe is the spiritual and cultural descendent of the Roman Empire and no country (Germany, Russia, Italy, Greece or Romania) may claim exclusive Roman continuity.

2. Plus, more importantly, Iuila had been acclaimed as Imperatrice (Empress) in public in Rome and Iulia had hinted that all of the Eastern Roman Empire should be Romanian (and this includes parts of Italy and North Africa).

3. And, the "Byzantine Empire" was the uninterrupted continuation of the Roman Empire.

4. But the real issue here was the increasing power of Romania. If all of the smaller states around Romania (Greece + Cilicia, Dalmatia + Croatia, Hungary, Slovakia, Armenia + Cappadocia, Georgia) and the Islamic Middle East (Turkey, Levant, mayble later even Arabia, Egypt, etc) got actually completely unified in a new "Roman Empire", that state would probably became the most powerful in Europe. And nobody wanted this. One of the core principles of the Great Powers Council was the Balance of Power.

5.

The Greek capital might be moved from Athens to Smyrna: the latter city is probably bigger and more important?

Correct. When any possible threat from Turkey disappears in the collective psyche of the Greeks, not only in reality.

6.

While complete expulsion/conversion of Muslims is not realistic, discriminatory policies against Muslims in the Middle East will be implemented. Higher tax rates and restrictions on mosque building, for example.

Correct for the European-held Middle East. In Europe however, there will be no Muslims quite soon.

7. Strangely, we don't have a word for Jizya. Romania has never been Muslim territory, but only under Ottoman suzerainty, so no Jizya, only Tribute, annually paid by the state to the Ottoman Suzerain Power.

8. Because of an (interesting) prior discussion about (relative) military strength and later about its correlation (or lack thereof) with population, I decided to make a more comprehensive table in Excel and upload it here.

1. Oh, yeah, claiming *exclusive* Roman continuity would be a problem. And 2. is also a big problem. Had Iulia kept the Roman Emperor title, but completely dropped any claims to

3. Yep, definitely. There's uninterrupted governmental continuity, but territorial and cultural change. Similar to the Republic of China in a way. "Byzantine Empire" is just a handy way of referring to the Roman Empire during its period of Greek cultural dominance. Obviously Romanian nationalists ITTL would disagree with me here!

4. Indeed. But I don't think that Romanian dominance can really be prevented by this point, actually. Rapid population and literacy growth will probably make Romania the strongest nation in Europe within the next 50 or 100 years.

5. Right. This cultural mindset will probably change pretty quickly (within the next 50 years, maybe less), due to the continued humiliation of the Turks and emergence of a strong Greek Mikrasia.

6. Making Europe devoid of Muslims will be more difficult than it sounds. See what happened after the Reconquista: the Muslims just went underground, nominally practising Christianity but secretly practising Islam. Only over a hundred years later, in 1609, were the crypto-Muslims expelled (in the Expulsion of the Moriscos), and that was only possible because the crypto-Muslims were of a different ethnicity. There's no way to discover the ethnic Albanians who have nominally converted to Christianity but clandestinely still practise Islam, for example.

On the subject of the Expulsion of the Moriscos, did it occur in TTL? It's after the POD. The circumstances which lead to the expulsion might be very different in TTL.

7. Romanian Wikipedia calls it "cizie". https://ro.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jizia
Incidentally, it's interesting that someone who only speaks English like me can understand the general gist of a Romanian wikipedia article. Makes sense, though, given that about 60% of English vocabulary comes from Latin (directly or indirectly). English essentially has its grammar and simple vocabulary from Germanic, but with the majority of the vobaculary from Latin, so this does make sense.

8. It's amazing to see how big China is, whilst being weaker than several European countries. Will be interesting to see what happens there in the future.
Also interesting that France has over twice the population of Romania, despite being much smaller. Romania definitely has a lot of room for population growth!

 

[Zagan]

Actually, if I remember right (and consider the 3 Principalities as Romania) in Transylvania taxes were increased on Romanian orthodox noblemen by the Hungarian heavy Transylvanian Diet, but I don't know if the distinction was made on ethnic, religious, or purely political criteria.
For the life of me, I can't remember where I have read it, so it may not be completely accurate.

Yes. How could I forget it?
The persecutions against Romanian Nobles (although probably ethnic in nature) were, at least officialy, framed as anti-Orthodox measures.
In less than a century, the Romanian Orthodox nobility was almost completely annihilated, part of it becoming Catholic (and then gradually Hungarian) and part of it losing wealth and status and gradually turning into (upper class) peasants with no political power.
The only political power in Transylvania was held by the Unio Trium Nationem (Hungarians, Germans, Szeklers).
That criminal system was disolved in OTL only in 1919 with the liberation of Transylvania by the Romanian Army (and in TTL in 1601-1602 by ATL Mihai Viteazul).

 

[Zagan]

1. Oh, yeah, claiming *exclusive* Roman continuity would be a problem. And 2. is also a big problem. Had Iulia kept the Roman Emperor title, but completely dropped any claims to

3. Yep, definitely. There's uninterrupted governmental continuity, but territorial and cultural change. Similar to the Republic of China in a way. "Byzantine Empire" is just a handy way of referring to the Roman Empire during its period of Greek cultural dominance. Obviously Romanian nationalists ITTL would disagree with me here!

4. Indeed. But I don't think that Romanian dominance can really be prevented by this point, actually. Rapid population and literacy growth will probably make Romania the strongest nation in Europe within the next 50 or 100 years.

5. Right. This cultural mindset will probably change pretty quickly (within the next 50 years, maybe less), due to the continued humiliation of the Turks and emergence of a strong Greek Mikrasia.

6. Making Europe devoid of Muslims will be more difficult than it sounds. See what happened after the Reconquista: the Muslims just went underground, nominally practising Christianity but secretly practising Islam. Only over a hundred years later, in 1609, were the crypto-Muslims expelled (in the Expulsion of the Moriscos), and that was only possible because the crypto-Muslims were of a different ethnicity. There's no way to discover the ethnic Albanians who have nominally converted to Christianity but clandestinely still practise Islam, for example.

On the subject of the Expulsion of the Moriscos, did it occur in TTL? It's after the POD. The circumstances which lead to the expulsion might be very different in TTL.

7. Romanian Wikipedia calls it "cizie". https://ro.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jizia
Incidentally, it's interesting that someone who only speaks English like me can understand the general gist of a Romanian wikipedia article. Makes sense, though, given that about 60% of English vocabulary comes from Latin (directly or indirectly). English essentially has its grammar and simple vocabulary from Germanic, but with the majority of the vobaculary from Latin, so this does make sense.

8. It's amazing to see how big China is, whilst being weaker than several European countries. Will be interesting to see what happens there in the future.
Also interesting that France has over twice the population of Romania, despite being much smaller. Romania definitely has a lot of room for population growth!

1. 2. Correct. No further comment here.

3. Correct. See the Chapter Romanian Historiography for a general idea about TTL Romanian nationalistic mythos.

4. Probably. The same would have eventually happened with the Byzantine Empire, had it not been destroyed by the Muslims.

5. Correct. The timeframe is also about right.

6. Yes. The Albanian and Bosniak converts will be a small problem in the next time frame, but it will slowly vanish during the centuries.
An important consideration is that in OTL (and TTL) only small numbers of Albanians and Bosniaks were Muslims in 1623 (when in TTL they were overrun by Christian Romania and the Islamization obviously stopped). In OTL they had three more centuries to get the current proportions of Muslims (70% of Albanians and 40% of Bosniaks). In OTL and TTL 1623, the proportions were probably around 10% of Albanians and 20% of Bosniaks (see the 1625 Religion Table).

Yes, the Moriscos were expulsed in TTL as well. The POD of TTL spread rather slowly outside Eastern Europe and the Western Countries remained virtually unchanged until the start of the First German War (1614).
Sadly for the expulsed Moriscos and somehow paradoxically, they became Spanish subjects once more after 1624 with the gradual Spanish conquest of North Africa.

7. Yes, used mainly in Ottoman Dobrudja and in the Aromanian Lands (the same word).
Not every speaker of English finds the Romanian Language to be somehow friendly, but only the more cultivated English speakers. Knowledge of other Romance languages obviously helps. Of course, Finnish for example would be much harder to comprehend.

8. China is and was always and in almost all normal TLs very big. It had more than half of the World's population sometimes!
China is weaker compared with its population because its neighbours are also weaker. If it were neighbouring Germany, it would have increased its military accordingly. And another reason for its relative weakness is the late Ming weak and troubled period which in TTL just continued after 1644.

France was the most populated (and most densely populated) European country until the 19th century in OTL. In TTL it might lose its place to Germany and even Romania, which as you had remarked has lots of room for a healthy population growth. My simulations got me to about 170,000,000 inhabitants at the beginning of the modern day population stagnation, but that figure may change.

 

[Falkanner]

1. Most of the population data outside Europe are estimations and some of them may be way off. If you have better population data, please tell me.

I'm not sure what sources you have been using, but Populstat has a lot of data that would be priceless in this kind of historical demography.

 

[Zagan]

I'm not sure what sources you have been using, but Populstat has a lot of data that would be priceless in this kind of historical demography.

It's quite good, but mostly for later years. There isn't much data for the 17th century there. And it's understandable, as there weren't any censuses in most of the World at that time.

 

[Sian]

I feel that your estimation of Scandinavian Naval power is a tad on the low side, specially when you consider that in the inner sea it was covered by the merchant fleet getting drafted. They would still be below France on the forth place, but I'd guesstimate that they'd land somewhere around 34% of Britain's fleet, specially given that they have much more of a reason to have an navy sailing across to North America, and experimenting with arctic-capable ships that can poke around on the Siberian coast.

The main issue that the Scandinavia fleet would have, which would make it appear artificially smaller than it is, would be that it's demands is so incompatible with each other. A deep-keel fleet for plying the North Atlantic, and a flat-keel Galley-esque fleet from Skagerak and inwards, and lastly experimenting with reinforced keels in the far north.

 

[Zagan]

Just half a century after their 1601 branching,
our two parallel Universes were already vastly diferrent.
Werner Heisenberg, Academy of Romania, Michaelia, 1949 [1]​

Half a Century after Mihai's Dream​

[1] If this motto seems ASB is because it actually is ASB. Since we are not in the ASB Forum, please be kind and ignore it and focus on the (non-ASB) Chapter Body below.
This motto is a teaser for a future ASB spin-off from TTL called "The Thirteenth Cycle" which will be available in the ASB Forum in the near future.


"Fifty Exceptional Years", essay by an unknown author, published in an obscure historical almanac in 1751 in Nurenberg, Germany, rediscovered and published in Romania in 1911.


History is unpredictable and moody. Sometimes it languishes for ages like on old and grumpy man, with little or no visible progress century after century, as it had been the case during most of the Dark Ages and some other times it is quick and alert like a naughty young boy, with revolutionary changes and momentuos leaps forward in a relatively short time frame, as in that extraordinary first half of the 17th century.


In 1601, Europe looked and felt completely different from 1651, almost as if being another continent altogeher.

There was no Great Powers Council and almost no international law, cooperation and syncronization but only mutual distrust, scheeming, internal fragmentation and international alienation.

There was no National State in Spain but only a loose and fragile union of the three Crowns of Castille, Portugal and Aragon.

There was no Britannian Kingdom but a loose union of the English and Scottish Crowns with a partially subdued Ireland.

There was no Powerful United Germany but a so called Holy Roman Empire, a monstruos disfunctional conglomerate of hundreds if not thousands of semi-independent microstates frequently at war with one another and obviously prone to increasing foreign intervention and domination.

There was no prosperous and peaceful Scandinavia but two mortal enemies -- Sweden and Denmark-Norway -- fighting with each other instead of working together like brothers for a common purpose.

There was no Unified Sarmatia straddling Europe from the Baltic to the Black Sea but only an almost land-locked Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth surrounded by frightening enemies and mostly disloyal loose dependencies.

There was no Independent and Unified Italia but a warring playground for Spain and France with dozens of small states changing allegiances like worn clothes.

Islam was not only not completely extirpated from the Christian Continent but was steadily advancing and menacing Europe's very core.

And, most shockingly of them all, there was no Romania whatsoever and seemingly no hope and no future for the massive Romanian Nation lying dormant under the heavy oppression of the ruthless foreign Ottoman conqueror.

Instead of a harmonious concert of nine strong Great Powers with stable borders and significant internal cohesion, Europe was divided in a seemingly endless mess of unstable and everchanging statelets, most of them totally lacking any raison d'être.

In 1601, Europe seemed destined to continue its senseless fragmentation, predation by the forces of Islam and endless petty internal wars.
In 1651, Europe was consolidated into nine powerful, cohesive, Unitary National States, had already pushed Islam towards its birth place rendering it uttlerly toothless and, after two catastrophic European Wars, had ushered in a seemingly endless era of unparalleled peace, prosperity and scientific, technological and cultural progress.


All of these are undisputed, verifyable facts. One intriguing question remains though: Why? What event was powerful enough to unleash such revolutionary changes sweeping Europe like a tempest and changing it forever?

Was it the German Unification Wars? While responsible for bringing the new ideas to Western Europe, the explosive German National Revival was preceded by smaller, sublter changes in the East of the Continent, starting with the Unification of Little Romania and continuing with the coalescence of the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth into the Unitary National State of Sarmatia.

Analyzing all the European phenomena from that crucial times, one element keeps sticking out of every one of them: the immense power of Nationalism, transceding class boundaries and arbitrary state borders, embraced not only by the rulling elites but by the hitherto neglected masses of the ordinary people.

It was those ordinary people which, under the enlightend guidance of their learned ones and with the invaluable aid offered by the printing press, turned their peoples into full-fledged Nations, veritable backbones of the European Nation States of the Modern Era.

Unlike the older States with inherently weak foundations based upon a King or a Prince ruling over an arbitrary and often frequently changing territory, a Modern Nation State is based upon a living Nation providing it with a rocky foundation, strong, stable and dependable even in times of poor leadership.

So Nationalism was the spark that ignited the European-wide revolution from the first half of the 17th century. But how did Nationalism itself start? After millenia of gestation, what was the trigger that had finally induced its birth?

It may be counterintuitive, but everything had started in a previously God forsaken part of Europe, inhabited by a small and hitherto completetly unexceptional and poorly known people suffering for centuries under the yoke of the Muslims -- the Romanian people, previously known as Wallachians.

It seems counterintuitive only if we fail to grasp the geopolitical reality of those times a little deeper. If we do, everything gets clearer.
Where could Nationalism have started after all? In a strong, united and cohesive large state like France where its people faced no existential threat and the King feared any possible change or where it would have been most needed lest the people itself risked total annihilation like in the continuously battered Romanian Principalities?


Yes, Nationalism as we know it today was birthed in Transylvania from the mind of a still controversial figure, a Romanian Voivode called Michael, the future Emperor Mihai of the Romanians.

Was Mihai a true revolutionary which despised and hated the former regime and wanted change for the sake of it? Probably not. He simply did not have any other chance to free his people and unite them all in an powerful Empire streching all over the Balkan Peninsula.

What is rather strange is that the future Emperor realized that he had no other chance but to empower his own people and kickstart their National Consciousness, that he actually managed to do it and, finally and most extraordinarily, that his plan worked and the an Empire got into being, seemingly out of thin air!


To understand what really happened, let us do a short recapitulation of Mihai's feats.

In August 1601, Mihai was about to regain control of Transylvania and Wallachia, two of the semi-autonomous Romanian Principalities under Ottoman suzerainty, the first step of his grand plan of reuniting all the three Principalities under his rule.
The problem was that the task looked to be all but impossible, with the Ottomans, the Habsburgs, the Poles and the Tatars all against him.

Despite this, in less than a year, Mihai had humiliated Austria, had unified Transylvania, Moldavia and Wallachia, had conquered additional territory, had gotten it internationally recognized and had rendered the Ottoman suzerainty largely symbolic, thus already placing all the foundation stones of his future Empire.
In the following 50 years, the Ottoman Empire had been repeatedly vanquished out of existance with the Romanian Empire gradually taking its place as the undisputed hegemon of the Orient!

Did Mihai foresee all of these? Was his mind really that powerful? Was it all about luck? Or did he indeed receive a revellation from God Almighty as he claimed?

We may never know. But, either a fantastic genius, a lucky gambler or a veritable modern Prophet, nobody can deny today that the first Emperor of Romania and father of the Romanian Nation was one of the most extraordinary men that have ever walked the face of the Earth!


In conclusion, from the German State that nourishes and shelters us to the whole modern World as we know it, we now know whom we have to thank: an extraordinary man born a century and a half ago in a faraway little country who had a short prophetic dream and acted upon it -- Saint Emperor Mihai I the Brave of the Romanians!


Whoever the author of the essay was, it looks like he had chosen well not to sign it, judging be the copious amount of abuse received by the article, of which we shall provide only a short example:

Only a lunatic or a traitor could not see that the creation of the German Empire was driven by a powerful internal necessity and not by some external factors.
I wish I could bet that even if the Romanian Voivode were to get killed that night the German Empire would have been born on time! Sadly, history does not allow us definite answers to "what if" questions.

Well, we know that the detractor would have lost his bet. In his World, however, they may never get the chance.

Only one statement from the unknown author's Essay was cleary unquestionable -- that in 1651, Europe was about to enter a long age of peace of prosperity.
Even if God did not send Mihai's Dream, it seemed that He really favoured the Continent of Europe!



This was the last Chapter from Part One of "Io Mihailŭ, Împĕratul Românilor" - A Michael the Brave Romania Wank.

A series of small posts summarizing important facts about various countries and a short fantasy Epilogue will close Part One. I promise that I will not end the story and Part Two is underway.

 

[Zagan]

I feel that your estimation of Scandinavian Naval power is a tad on the low side, specially when you consider that in the inner sea it was covered by the merchant fleet getting drafted. They would still be below France on the third place, but I'd guesstimate that they'd land somewhere around 34% of Britain's fleet, specially given that they have much more of a reason to have an navy sailing across to North America, and experimenting with arctic-capable ships that can poke around on the Siberian coast.

The main issue that the Scandinavia fleet would have, which would make it appear artificially smaller than it is, would be that it's demands is so incompatible with each other. A deep-keel fleet for plying the North Atlantic, and a flat-keel Galley-esque fleet from Skagerak and inwards, and lastly experimenting with reinforced keels in the far north.

You are probably correct.

However, I was only considering what we shall call a Navy, not a Fleet.
I mean, I have only taken into consideration the Scandinavian Navy (that is, the war potential of the otherwise increasingly strong Scandinavian Fleet) which was obviously decreasing because of:
1. No more wars and rivalry between Sweden and Denmark-Norway;
2. No way to surpass Britain anyway, plus friendly relations;
3. Friendly relations with Germany and no need to anger it;
4. Friendly relations with Sarmatia and a defensive alliance against Russia;
5. No Russian Navy in the Baltic or Arctic and no Russian Baltic Coast at all.

If there will be more reasons to edit the table (a graphic file) I will probably do it. Otherwise, I will only post an errata, which I will do in this case.
Thank you.

 

[Zagan]

Has anyone noticed the Chapter Table of Contents and Image Table of Contents hidden inside SPOILER tags in the first post of this thread?
I had to place them in SPOILER tags or a new reader would have some ideas from the names of the Chapters / Maps / Tables.

After the definite end of Part One, I will repost them in a separate post.


So, next:
- Short posts about each important country / entity (wikipedia style summaries, but not actual wikipedia infoboxes, because I am not good at it), around 30 in total;
- The Epilogue (plus a disclaimer);
- Answers to questions, requests (if not possible right now, delayed for Part Two), possibly a few more maps, tables, other graphics;
- Some discussion plus a few more advice requests about the upcoming Part Two;
- Start of Part Two.

No ETAs (Estimated Time of Arrival), because it seems that I cannot keep them and I am always late. :-(


In the mean time, I will probably start a discussion about the First (ASB) Spin-Off of TTL (called The Thirteenth Cycle) in the ASB Forum. I will post a link here, for anyone interested in ASB stories to get there and follow it as well.

 

[Sian]

5. No Russian Navy in the Baltic or Arctic and no Russian Baltic Coast at all.

It was first quite late in OTL that the Russian baltic fleet was more competent than any other half-way competent navy that plied the waters, and it was first created in 1703 in any case. For an example, in the Finnish war where Russia otherwise demolished Sweden, their navy was neatly bottled up in the Gulf of Finland and had no realistic chance of getting out in the Baltic sea or into the Bothnian Bay to support the occupation of the western forts of Finland

While I'd concede your other points, I'd say it would be more than outweighted by added merchant shipping with Scandinavian ships probably doing the majority of the transnational shipping from Sarmatian ports, and a significant part of the more eastern German Baltic ports (with Germany's fleet being primarily based between Hamburg and Rotterdam). Additionally the cash gained from not throwing it at each other in war after war after war (Denmark and Sweden got to the claim of being the two nations with most wars between them honestly), is likely going to be funneled into 3 major things.

1. Mining activities in the mountains in the scandinavian peninsula (Falun would probably be expanded, and the organizational knowledge would be actively spread to other operations)
2. Argicultural infrastructure in Southern Sweden (south of the swedish lakes), deforesting large parts of småland and Vester/Östergötland and using the new farmlands to aggressively expand their population
3. expanding the fleet (using the aforementioned deforestation for lumber) plying the North Atlantic sea to efficiently use potential gains from Iceland and expand colonial efforts to Greenland (which was only de-jure claimed at this point), both as a trading post for Narwhal Ivory and as a refueling station for ships going to North America, where the biggest gains would be from fur and even more timber... Additionally it would be used to extend the effective merchant shipping they have into the North sea, trying to recapture some of the ivory markets (now that its easier to trade with Greenland the costs should be more able to compete with African elephant ivory that might have been disturbed by the Spanish conquest of North Africa and the less active caravans crossing Sahara), and becoming the primary supplier of good ship-building timber as most continental (and specially British) forests have been severely overused for the last 150ish years, while Scandinavia still have a lot of good shipbuilding timber in the sparsely populated north (and with Finns migrating to the areas at around this point to be used as easy labor

 

[Zagan]

It was first quite late in OTL that the Russian baltic fleet was more competent than any other half-way competent navy that plied the waters, and it was first created in 1703 in any case. For an example, in the Finnish war where Russia otherwise demolished Sweden, their navy was neatly bottled up in the Gulf of Finland and had no realistic chance of getting out in the Baltic sea or into the Bothnian Bay to support the occupation of the western forts of Finland

While I'd concede your other points, I'd say it would be more than outweighted by added merchant shipping with Scandinavian ships probably doing the majority of the transnational shipping from Sarmatian ports, and a significant part of the more eastern German Baltic ports (with Germany's fleet being primarily based between Hamburg and Rotterdam). Additionally the cash gained from not throwing it at each other in war after war after war (Denmark and Sweden got to the claim of being the two nations with most wars between them honestly), is likely going to be funneled into 3 major things.

1. Mining activities in the mountains in the scandinavian peninsula (Falun would probably be expanded, and the organizational knowledge would be actively spread to other operations)
2. Argicultural infrastructure in Southern Sweden (south of the swedish lakes), deforesting large parts of småland and Vester/Östergötland and using the new farmlands to aggressively expand their population
3. expanding the fleet (using the aforementioned deforestation for lumber) plying the North Atlantic sea to efficiently use potential gains from Iceland and expand colonial efforts to Greenland (which was only de-jure claimed at this point), both as a trading post for Narwhal Ivory and as a refueling station for ships going to North America, where the biggest gains would be from fur and even more timber... Additionally it would be used to extend the effective merchant shipping they have into the North sea, trying to recapture some of the ivory markets (now that its easier to trade with Greenland the costs should be more able to compete with African elephant ivory that might have been disturbed by the Spanish conquest of North Africa and the less active caravans crossing Sahara), and becoming the primary supplier of good ship-building timber as most continental (and specially British) forests have been severely overused for the last 150ish years, while Scandinavia still have a lot of good shipbuilding timber in the sparsely populated north (and with Finns migrating to the areas at around this point to be used as easy labor

Correct about the Russians. Absolutely no problem.

Correct about shipping in the Baltic. Scandinavia has an almost monopoly in the Baltic. Germany has a three fleets, in the order of their strength: North Sea > Adriatic Sea >> Baltic Sea.

Correct about the current wealth of Scandinavia. Strong economy, lots of cash and a small population!

All of your 1. 2. and 3. points have already happened in TTL. I will mention these and other stuff about Scandinavia in its Part Two dedicated Chapters (I am not completely sure about the organization of Part Two, but the currently preferred approach is in 50 years chunks for each important country plus the wars, so Scandinavia will get around 8 dedicated small chapters).

As of 1651, Scandinavia has an almost monopoly on: furs (*Canada and Siberia), seals, walruses, plus minerals, lots of timber and other goodies. Until the British, French and Russians will get angry and an accomodation will be reached (no more spoilers).

Thanks.

 

[Zagan]

And, before the country summaries, a little bonus...

Flag Map of Europe
(1652)

Note: For individual flags, check the three consecutive posts starting with this one.

 

[Sir Omega]

Will Peter the Great of Russia be butterflied away? For a Navy-Enthusiast Tsar, the geographical situation of Russia would be quite annoying. Or would he try (if he even made Tsar, he had a few obstacles) a diplomatic solution?

 

[Zagan]

Will Peter the Great of Russia be butterflied away? For a Navy-Enthusiast Tsar, the geographical situation of Russia would be quite annoying. Or would he try (if he even made Tsar, he had a few obstacles) a diplomatic solution?

I doubt that even any one of his grandparents was ever born in TTL.

 

[Summoner]

Great map. One question about Germany here. Do we see in this TL the eastward migration of German colonists? In OTL, these colonists were invited by their host nations as a source of skilled labor and to repopulate war torn areas. Hence we have groups such as Volga, Caucasus, Baltic, Balkan and Transylvanian etc... Germans. Any difference here or have Germans stayed more or less in Germany?

 

[Zagan]

Great map. One question about Germany here. Do we see in this TL the eastward migration of German colonists? In OTL, these colonists were invited by their host nations as a source of skilled labor and to repopulate war torn areas. Hence we have groups such as Volga, Caucasus, Baltic, Balkan and Transylvanian etc... Germans. Any difference here or have Germans stayed more or less in Germany?

Baltic and Transylvanian German predate the POD so they were already there.

Baltic Germans (mostly nobility) were included in the German-Sarmatian population exchanges alongside the Prussian Germans. It was a great economical loss for Sarmatia.

Transylvanian Germans got some of their ancient privileges confirmed by Mihai (Protected Nation Status) and most of them remained in Romania as an ethnic minority.
Some other Germans were subsequently invited for their naval expertise and settled in Bessarabia and the Yedisan.
In 1651, the Germans account for cca 4% of the Romanian Population. They are the model minority and create no trouble at all.

No Germans were invited in Russia, so no German comunities on the Volga yet.
There is no point for the Germans to immigrate to Armenia or Georgia.

 

[Zagan]

... and another bonus:


Animated Map of Romania (1600 - 1652)


Note: This is an animated GIF. Middle-click to open in another Browser Tab.

Legend:
Sea Blue: Sea (who would have thought that?)
Grey: Other Countries
Red: Romania
Pink: Romanian territory under foreign occupation / Foreign territory under Romanian Occupation / De facto but not de jure Romanian territory / other not clear-cut situation
Light Orange: Romanian Sphere of Influence (Protectorates, etc)
Other Colors: Romanian Principalities before the 1601 Unification
.