Indonesia ATL: The Presidency of Try Sutrisno (1997-)

So, Vietnam threw its full weight backing up Indonesia.

Unless theres another meaning for "non-interference on what other ASEAN members consider to be their internal affairs".

The relocation of Shwe Mann and his men its gonna be a tough task, not only because logistical challenges but for whoever wants to get political gains from this.
 
So, Vietnam threw its full weight backing up Indonesia.

Unless theres another meaning for "non-interference on what other ASEAN members consider to be their internal affairs".

The relocation of Shwe Mann and his men its gonna be a tough task, not only because logistical challenges but for whoever wants to get political gains from this.
Politically quite tough cuz essentially we are letting a man with his not-government in exile to be in our country. Not only a man but also like what the previous chapter mention a large number of military personnel that is equivalent to a Kostrad Division in number and their families. Tbh that’s hella tough but I will bet that there is a way to admit them in. Like in previous chapter we can say that they are “refugees” but still I really like to see what the author would put for this situation. Again this little cold war has become a soft confrontation to be honest cuz we mostly do word play and anything that is not military action.
 
Politically quite tough cuz essentially we are letting a man with his not-government in exile to be in our country.
Internally, will the opposition support this relocation or denounce a Try intromision in Myanmar, while supporting the coup d'etat forces?
Example: I hardly see Tutut agreeing with Try with taking Mann forces, but taking every chance to denounce him.

Now, the relocation will be a logistical nightmare - almost 30K between military and civilians. Im getting some Dunkirk/Xenophon vibes.
 
Internally, will the opposition support this relocation or denounce a Try intromision in Myanmar, while supporting the coup d'etat forces?
Example: I hardly see Tutut agreeing with Try with taking Mann forces, but taking every chance to denounce him.

Now, the relocation will be a logistical nightmare - almost 30K between military and civilians. Im getting some Dunkirk/Xenophon vibes.
What's the Myanmarese gonna do, fire on a PELNI ship in Indian waters ? The distances are vast, but we're not at war and the Myanmar Air Force isn't the Luftwaffe.
 
What's the Myanmarese gonna do, fire on a PELNI ship in Indian waters ? The distances are vast, but we're not at war and the Myanmar Air Force isn't the Luftwaffe.
and if they do it is an act of Piracy and a Declaration of War, because it's a civilian ship evacuating refugees for humanitarian reasons.
 
Not to mention getting bitchslapped by the destroyer we would send along.
More like Frigates since it’s the Ahmad Yani class that going to escort them if we ever want to sent one. And also is there any possibility that the Indians going to set up an escort group maybe like 2 ships ish? since they obviously would travel from there.
 
More like Frigates since it’s the Ahmad Yani class that going to escort them if we ever want to sent one. And also is there any possibility that the Indians going to set up an escort group maybe like 2 ships ish? since they obviously would travel from there.
I can believe that, the Indian wouldn't want a News report of a Humanitarian evacuation ship sunk off their coast.
 
Hy GSD310, I hope I'm not disturbing you, but I just came up with an interesting idea: Is it plausible that with Rutelli in Italy and overall stricter IMF rules ITTL we could see a significantly lower Italian and Greek Debt to GDP ratio before 2008?
  • With Rutelli at the helm, Italy could have implemented a debt repayment scheme similar to OTL Belgium (2-3% debt payments per year) and end up with a Debt to GDP ratio of around 85% at the end of his mandate that could be lowered even farther if he wins the 2006 elections. If the government reacts quicker than in OTL we could end up with a post-2008 Financial Crisis Debt to GDP Ratio of just "100%". Not economically related but with the left in power the Ius Solis would have been more than likely passed as early as 2002-2003 (instead of what Fini did in OTL).
  • Greece could also avoid default if the government is forced to follow stricter IMF Rules and could very well avoid a major part of the OTL financial troubles if in 2004 PASOK wins the general elections and Kostas Karamanlis is not elected Prime Minister.
 
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@GSD310 While I do like the concept of Indonesia taking in Shwe Mann through India but I think this is extremely difficult for the Vajpayee government in India to pull through. His coalition government was throughout its term one bad decision away from breaking. It was extremely fragile with domestic events but if this sort of an act becomes known then the geopolitical situation means that he will collapse. India has plenty of trouble with China and Pakistan and Khaleda Zia's Bangladesh and Sri Lanka of the time are no friend either and adding the last major country to the list is something which would tear the coalition apart.
Similarly George Fernandes negotiating that is not likely as this is to big a geopolitical decision for India. It would take direct interaction with Vajpayee himself and most likely in consultation with key coalition members.
Not to mention getting bitchslapped by the destroyer we would send along.
Sending warships to pick up people from a secret operation would be a complete no go for India. And with the pitiful Air Force and Navy that Myanmar had at the time they could hardly do something. If it is determined that naval escort is needed then the a detachment of the Indian Eastern fleet is enough for the job and to keep it secret a naval e exercise can be conducted where India uses its aircraft carrier.
 
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Sending warships to pick up people from a secret operation would be a complete no go for India. And with the pitiful Air Force and Navy that Myanmar had at the time they could hardly do something. If it is determined that naval escort is needed then the a detachment of the Indian Eastern fleet is enough for the job and to keep it secret a naval e exercise can be conducted where India uses its aircraft carrier.
Tbh that’s why I thought at max probably they would only deploy 1 or 2 ships as a token escort (probably Frigates) if they are needed. I’m expecting Indonesia would send more when they are getting closer to Indonesian seas if they need any escort.
 
Great to see you all getting into the spirit to the TL. and there are some great ideas about in here about to get Shwe Mann and Co. to Indonesia. I'll just address some issues in general here:

-Yes, it's not without political risk for Try for wanting to take Shwe Mann and Co. in both internally and externally. As you have already seen, Ginandjar's pretty uncomfortable with the idea (with the added political motive that if Try fails, he can disassociate himself from the government). What I'm trying to convey is that he is taking this risk because it's a way to show that he walks the talk when it comes to countering China's influence. Vietnam sticking its neck out by drawing attention to itself is not only to show that it's all in if the aim is to counter China, it's also something of a subtle way of saying "Shwe Mann and Co. better be with one of you" and "I wonder if you can back up what you say".

-@Rajveer: well-noted regarding Vajpayee's internal political situation. I had Fernandes in Malaysia to meet with Try knowing that India is having ITTL's version of the Indian-Pakistan stand-off so I probably won't change him being there in an edit. I suppose India would be more pushy with Try?

-Have some questions about Europe, South America, and South Asia, going to write it up into a list and send it to Marco, Pio, and Rajveer.
 
Also, other thing to consider is Myanmar Intelligence. Im sure its in good terms with China and its resources, searching all over SEA for Mann. So i wouldnt be surprised if many counter intelligence measures are taken to mislead the relocation.
 
Also, other thing to consider is Myanmar Intelligence. Im sure its in good terms with China and its resources, searching all over SEA for Mann. So i wouldnt be surprised if many counter intelligence measures are taken to mislead the relocation.
I'd be surprised if Counter Intelligence managed to make it seem that Mann is in Australia in an attempt of revenge for the possible back stab.
 
Also, other thing to consider is Myanmar Intelligence. Im sure its in good terms with China and its resources, searching all over SEA for Mann. So i wouldnt be surprised if many counter intelligence measures are taken to mislead the relocation.
I can see that both Bais (TNI Intel) and Bakin would do anything to hide his location even if it’s in Indonesia (I thought Bais would be in this too since this is a mix military op)
 
Imagine the movies and series ITTL about this relocation: the greatest counter intelligence operation since WW2 (Operation Bodyguard)
 
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24th April 2002 (Day 8 of the Election Campaign):
Chairman of the DPR Harmoko, on the campaign trail in Southeast Sulawesi, ridiculed the claims made by the PKPB that President Try Sutrisno’s attendance at the Yang di-Pertuan Agong’s coronation meant that he was out of touch with the Indonesian people. Harmoko said that the President represents the national interest where he was and pointed out that the President had secured non-interference in Indonesian internal affairs even by close neighbors.

In an interview on RCTI, PKPB DPR Candidate Nur Mahmudi Ismail asks that what does not make sense about the current government is that it governs the world’s largest Islamic population but it is uncomfortable about being Islamic. Nur Mahmudi said that the government is even “allergic” to the term “Sharia”.

25th April 2002 (Day 9 of the Election Campaign):
Minister of Religion Quraish Shihab arriving for work on this day said that clearly the PKPB’s DPR candidate has never heard that the current government passed the Hajj Law, the Zakat Law, and the Waqf Law. Quraish said that it’s never been easier of Muslims to practice their faith. Elsewhere, the PPP also chimed in to defend the government. Secretary of the PPP Bachtiar Chamsyah campaigning in North Sumatra said that the presence of the PPP in the PKPI-PPP Coalition is a stamp of approval that the government stands for Indonesian Muslims.

The President met with Vice President JB Sumarlin today and discussed various matters. For the first time, the President updated Sumarlin on what was going to happen to Shwe Mann. Sumarlin said that he would rather ex-Tatmadaw personnel being integrated into ABRI rather than Indonesians because he preferred Indonesians starting new businesses or working at factories. Sumarlin advised that those personnel with defense industry experience be deployed to work on Indonesia’s defense industry.

When asked on his opinion on AFTA, Sumarlin said that as far as lowering trade barriers were concerned it was not only AFTA but also APEC where tariffs need to be lowered. The government must keep in mind and that these were commitments that it must eventually fulfill. Regarding concerns of being flooded by imports, Sumarlin said it was not without reason but said that lowering trade barriers must be coupled with industrial development.

“I can just sign on a piece of paper and we have lowered trade barriers but industrial development, that’s something that will take time”, said the President.

26th April 2002 (Day 10 of the Election Campaign):
Speaking to CNN on the campaign trail in Lampung, Chairwoman of the PNI Megawati Soekarnoputri said that she believed there were more dangers that the government should be taking care of than extremism. She cited unresolved incidents from the previous government which needed to be solved such as the 1984 Tanjung Priok Incident and the 27th July 1996 Incident.

In Jakarta and accompanied by Minister of Information, Post, and Telecommunications Oka Mahendra, the President inaugurated the studios and offices of Mahaka TV. Afterwards, accompanied by CEO of Mahaka TV Erick Thohir, the President toured the facilities. It was as he was looking at the various broadcasting equipment that he was tapped on the shoulder by State Secretary Edi Sudrajat. Edi said that the Prime Minister of India wishes to speak with him.

Back at the Presidential Palace, the President took the call from Prime Minister of India Atal Bihari Vajpayee. After Vajpayee had said his greetings, the President began to thank him profusely for his understanding of Indonesia’s situation but Vajpayee was strangely quiet, he allowed the President to finish before speaking.

“Mr. President, I would like to tell you that the Indian Government’s stance remains unchanged, your nation being strong is of a vital concern to us”, said Vajpayee “Unfortunately in keeping the presence of Lt. Gen. Shwe Mann, his men and their families’ presence here in India under wraps, I am taking a huge political risk, as it is I am struggling to keep my coalition partners to accept what I’m doing.”

“I understand, Mr. Prime…”, began the President but he was cut off.

“I’m not finished, you must listen to me”, interrupted Vajpayee “As you know, in the negotiations to keep our standoff with Pakistan from spilling over into open wa…open conflict, there are mediating nations involved, the United States, Russia, and China. As of this noon, China has said it would like to suspend its participation in the negotiations saying that Chinese Minister of Foreign Affairs Tang Jiaxuan needs to go to Myanmar and have an urgent meeting with Gen. Khin Nyunt.”

“Does China know?” asked the President.

“We don’t know”, replied Vajpayee "We only know that if China doesn’t want to participate, we can forget about the Pakistanis as well considering it’s Gen. Aziz Khan who requested Chinese participation…”

There was silence.

“What you agreed with Minister George Fernandes no longer applies, Mr. President”, said Vajpayee “I realized there is an election campaign over there but we will be needing you take them out of India as soon as possible.”

27th April 2002 (Day 11 of the Election Campaign):
In Palembang, South Sumatra, a crowd at the PKPI campaign event sighed in disappointment when they were informed that the President would not be making an appearance today because there were “pressing matters” keeping him in Jakarta. Far away in North Sulawesi, Chairman of the PKPB National Campaign Prabowo Subianto chuckled at this development.

“Thank God for presidential matters keeping the PKPI’s best weapon from appearing on the campaign trail”, he said.

At the Presidential Palace in Jakarta, the Palace listed the President’s activity as chairing a meeting attended by Vice President JB Sumarlin, Minister of Home Affairs Harsudiono Hartas, Minister of Foreign Affairs Ginandjar Kartasasmita, Minister of Defense and Security Wismoyo Arismunandar, Minister of Legal Affairs Marzuki Darusman, Minister of Economics and National Development Planning Dorodjatun Kuntjoro-Jakti, Minister of Finance Mar’ie Muhammad, Minister of Transportation Soerjadi Soedirja, Minister of Transmigration Indra Bambang Utoyo, State Minister of National Security Soerjadi, State Minister of State-Owned Enterprises Cacuk Sudarijanto, Junior Minister of Housing Bobby Suhardiman, State Secretary Edi Sudrajat, Cabinet Secretary Hayono Isman, Commander of ABRI Wiranto, Chief of BAKIN Ari Sudewo, Army Chief of Staff TB Hasanuddin, Navy Chief of Staff Djoko Sumaryono, Air Force Chief of Staff Ali Munsiri Rappe, Chief of Police Ansyaad Mbai, and Chief of ABRI Intelligence Ian Santoso Perdanakusuma.

The meeting lasted for some time though outside, the Palace Press Corps were kept entertained by Chairman of the PKPI Basofi Sudirman busting out “Not All Men” on the campaign trail for the first time during the campaign.

At the end of the day, it fell to Edi Sudrajat and Hayono Isman to explain the results of the meeting. Edi said that the meeting discussed the economic and national security situation was the nation approached the halfway mark on the campaign. Hayono said that the campaign is a busy period so the only time that could be found was on a weekend but on the weekend, there are a lot of ministers missing because they are campaigning.
Inside his office, the President scrawled something on a piece of paper:
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28th April 2002 (Day 12 of the Election Campaign):
A solemn day for the PKPB campaign as Chairwoman of the PKPB Tutut Soeharto pay her respects at the tombs of former President Soeharto and former First Lady Hartinah Soeharto in Astana Giribangun Mausoleum, Karanganyar, Central Java. This day being the 6th anniversary of Hartinah Soeharto’s passing. She was accompanied by PKPB’s DPR candidates.

Soerjadi Soedirja and Cacuk Sudarijanto held a joint press conference today. Soerjadi Soedirja announced that they have suspended PT. Pelni’s KM Bukit Siguntang and KM Kerinci’s services due to urgent maintenance which are required on both ships. Cacuk apologized on behalf of PT. Pelni, being the state-owned shipping and liner company, and promised that all refunds will be paid to those who have bought tickets. Soerjadi Soedirja said that he has to put safety first, KM Bukit Siguntang having a passenger capacity of 2003 passengers and KM Kerinci of 2000 passengers.

Army Chief of Staff TB Hasanuddin looked surprised when he arrived at Halim Perdanakusuma Airport to find some members of the press corps waiting for him. It was an awkward scene as the reporters protested that the Army Headquarters only released information about TB Hasanuddin’s departure 30 minutes before they came to the airport while TB looked annoyed that his departure has been found out.

“Based on the information given to us, you are going to Vietnam?” asked one of the reporters.

“Goddamnit, who released the information that I am making a trip? You might as well compromise everything while you’re at it…” TB Hasanuddin was heard to say as he stormed into the terminal.

At the Myanmar Embassy to Indonesia, they were already making calls to Rangoon when the information was leaked.

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29th April 2002 (Day 13 of the Election Campaign):
The President and his entourage arrived at Medan, North Sumatra today. After arriving and being greeted by Governor of North Sumatra Syamsir Siregar, the President made his trip east over new stretches of toll roads which he would inaugurate remotely.

The Presidential entourage arrived at Kuala Tanjung and PT. Inalum’s aluminium smelter, PT. Inalum being the state-owned enterprise which produces aluminium. At this facility, accompanied Minister of Industry Siswono Yudohusodo, Minister of Public Works Rachmat Witoelar, Minister of Education Fakry Gaffar, and State Minister of State-Owned Enterprises Cacuk Sudarijanto, the President inaugurated the following:

*Expansion of the Inalum Aluminum Smelter
*The Medan-Kuala Namu Toll Road
*The Kuala Namu-Tebing Tinggi Toll Road
*The Telkom Medan Vocational School
*Batang Angkola Vocational School

In his speech, the President said that the projects he inaugurated in North Sumatra represents the full complement of what the government is trying to do. The government is investing in infrastructure to stimulate productive activity and this is seen in the toll roads, the government is itself contributing to increased production by expanding the Inalum aluminum smelter capacity from its present 265,000 tonnes to 325,000 tonnes, and finally with the proceeds of economic growth the government is investing for the future by constructing new vocational schools. Speaking specifically about North Sumatra, the President said that the province must become an industrial center.

The President toured the facilities and shook hands with the workers, telling them that they are playing an important role in the Indonesian economy by decreasing aluminum imports. He then went back to Medan where he inspected the Telkom Medan Vocational School. He was very satisfied at the courses offered there which included software engineering and network access engineering.

Meanwhile in South Sulawesi, Chairwoman of the PNI Megawati Soekarnoputri after a fiery speech in the afternoon that got the crowd going, she was all too disappointed when she arrived at her hotel that night and found that the coverage was all on the President in North Sumatra.

“He’s the incumbent, dear”, said Taufiq Kiemas “They attract the most attention and can show the tangible things he’s done in power.”

The President spent the night in Medan but he woke up in the middle of the night to visit Polonia Air Base. There, he and Ali Munsiri Rappe inspected the 3 Hercules Aircrafts parked in the air base. Ali said that all 7 of the C-130HS with the long bodies are ready for deployment, the other 4 are at Banda Aceh’s Iskandar Muda Air Base. There will be 2 or 3 more available after they are done delivering ballot boxes to Irian Jaya for the election.

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30th April 2002 (Day 14 of the Election Campaign):
It was morning when the Presidential Airplane touched down in Kupang, East Nusa Tenggara where Governor of East Nusa Tenggara Herman Musakabe welcomed him. From Kupang, the Presidential entourage travelled outside of Kupang to the recently completed Tilong Dam. With Rachmat Witoelar, Siswono Yudohusodo, Fakry Gaffar, and Cacuk Sudarijanto, the President inaugurated the following:

*The Tilong Dam
*The 3rd Semen Kupang Factory
*The Establishment of Timor University
*Rehabillitation of Benaian Bridge in Belu
*Irrigation Projects in five regencies throughout East Nusa Tenggara
*New Junior High School Buildings in the Province which will come into use in the new school year

In his speech, the President said that no province or region should ever worry about being left behind and that all provinces and the people in it will all be given the opportunity to maximize its potential. The President envisions East Nusa Tenggara as following in West Nusa Tenggara’s footsteps in becoming another Bali and possibly doing even better.

Back in Jakarta, Chairman of the PPP Matori Abdul Djalil and Chairman of the PPP National Campaign Hamzah Haz had a meeting to discuss the PPP’s situation. Hamzah reported that a shift is happening and that the way the PKPB was playing the “religion card” is causing the PPP to lose votes to it. Becoming upset, Matori said that the campaign needs to try harder that by being in a coalition with the PKPI, the PPP will have its best chance to influence and be a part of the government. Hamzah countered that if the PPP’s strategy is to emphasize to its voters that they will be a part of the government, Matori should press to the President to make firm commitments about what the PPP “Was going to get” in the next term. Matori does not give a firm reply.

It was evening when the President arrived back from East Nusa Tenggara. At the Presidential Palace, Military Secretary Sudrajat reported that Maj. Gen. Thein Sein, Shwe Mann’s second in command, had arrived accompanied by 60 aides and bodyguards on a New Delhi-Jakarta charter flight flying under the auspices of Gemala Group, belonging to Sofyan Wanandi, the government's most prominent backer in the business community. They were picked up by ABRI personnel and taken to ABRI Headquarters and will liaise and coordinate with ABRI Headquarters regarding the evacuation.

The President nodded and updated what he scribbled on the piece paper two days ago:
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Made India more pushy about Indonesia evacuating Shwe Mann and Co.

We have an Election Campaign going on and in the background...
 
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Why Anthony Salim wasnt in the general meeting (Day 11 of National Campaign)?
Clue 1: No need for him to attend because it’s not actually about the general situation that the meeting’s talking about.

Clue 2: Try begins keeping count of something numbering around 30,000 after the meeting.
 
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