Indonesia ATL: The Presidency of Try Sutrisno (1997-)

To be honest tho I wonder how it would effect with the upcoming election. In the TL Try could be seen as the one who started Indonesian foreign policy adventures more active then his predecessors while of course still juggling around with many domestic stuff , in particular the infrastructure programs I bet or the economy.
How Indonesians would react will depend on what party they support in the election and there will be some comments on foreign policy from the other parties. I think his foreign policy is more active than Soeharto's but still far away from Soekarno's aggressive foreign policy.

@Dude... and @wahyubison, you both point out something very crucial here. Militarily, economically, and in everything else Indonesia is not as far behind China as in OTL. It can't go one-on-one with China but it doesn't mean it can't give China problems. ITTL, China's reaction is always "We have bigger things to worry about than Indonesia but hang on, it's actually getting in our way, we have to do something."

As @Dude... points out, in its own way ITTL Indonesia will try to counter China and key to that is setting up a bloc with Southeast Asia. Of course there's ASEAN, but in ITTL as in OTL, China has some influence there so Indonesia has to group together with countries that has the same view as it does.
 
How Indonesians would react will depend on what party they support in the election and there will be some comments on foreign policy from the other parties. I think his foreign policy is more active than Soeharto's but still far away from Soekarno's aggressive foreign policy.

@Dude... and @wahyubison, you both point out something very crucial here. Militarily, economically, and in everything else Indonesia is not as far behind China as in OTL. It can't go one-on-one with China but it doesn't mean it can't give China problems. ITTL, China's reaction is always "We have bigger things to worry about than Indonesia but hang on, it's actually getting in our way, we have to do something."

As @Dude... points out, in its own way ITTL Indonesia will try to counter China and key to that is setting up a bloc with Southeast Asia. Of course there's ASEAN, but in ITTL as in OTL, China has some influence there so Indonesia has to group together with countries that has the same view as it does.
The key for Asian Counter Strategy are Japan, South Korea, and India. I believe Japan chains of power would be lifted sooner or later maybe Try can speed up the process. This can be opportunity for Indonesia to build up economy and military when China focus on East China Sea, Taiwan, and Hongkong.
 
The key for Asian Counter Strategy are Japan, South Korea, and India. I believe Japan chains of power would be lifted sooner or later maybe Try can speed up the process. This can be opportunity for Indonesia to build up economy and military when China focus on East China Sea, Taiwan, and Hongkong.
Yes, yet it’s better to get friends closer to home and build up the relationship more closer (Thailand, Philippines, Laos, and Vietnam) since it would in a way make our voice more legitimate in the region since other countries in the region support us. And then we getting befriended other countries especially in East and South Asia for the help countering China. And also at least more focusing to ensure it’s for the greater good for the region rather than greater good for Indonesia to at least show the region and the world that our position here is inline with the regions interest and prosperity to help more uniting SEA.
 
Yes, yet it’s better to get friends closer to home and build up the relationship more closer (Thailand, Philippines, Laos, and Vietnam) since it would in a way make our voice more legitimate in the region since other countries in the region support us. And then we getting befriended other countries especially in East and South Asia for the help countering China. And also at least more focusing to ensure it’s for the greater good for the region rather than greater good for Indonesia to at least show the region and the world that our position here is inline with the regions interest and prosperity to help more uniting SEA.
Buddy i speak for future Indonesian geopolitics. Try present strategy can be count succeed to unite SEA. We can rule out Myanmar, Malaysia, and Cambodia. I don't know why British still silent with Malaysia closer with China.
 
Hy @GSD310 I have just finished reading the updates that you have written so far and I have to say that I have enjoyed it very much. I really liked how the situation in Indonesia is evolving in TTL but I have to say that as a European I'm so knowledgeable of Indonesia internal dynamics. I however wanted to give my consideration about some of the countries that were affected by butterflies in TTL:

Russia
  1. From the get-go, I have to assume two things: the second Chechen war happened like in OTL (even with Primakov at the helm the terrorists from Chechenia would have invaded Dagestan and bombed several apartment blocks all over Russia) but the Kursk sinking never happened (since there is no mention of it happening I have to assume that since the economy was better than in OTL the torpedo that sunk Kursk in OTL was maintained better in TTL). Regarding Vietnam, I can see a compromise being reached in TTL: no military presence but the facilities remain open for Russian supplies and usage (like in OTL).
  2. I personally think that events in Georgia (read Rose Revolution) will unfold just like OTL but Ukraine will be prevented from drifting toward the west. In TTL Primakov will most likely give a lot more help to Kuchma/Yanuchovyck and back the declaration of martial law in response to the Orange revolution (there are rumours that in OTL Kuchma considered declaring martial law but when Putin said that Russia would not back it he relented and allowed new elections to take place). Things would more than likely have unfolded as they did in OTL Azerbaijan in 2005 and Armenia in 2008 and the protests would have been quickly put down.
  3. I think that the 2007 Russo-Georgian war would have unfolded like in OTL but I can also see Primakov choosing to launch a full-scale invasion of the country (something like Tom Clancy's Ghost Recons) and create a puppet state.
  4. Primakov would also more than likely speed up OTL Russian plans to create bases abroad. Apart from retaining Tartus, Syria, I can see Russia opening bases in Benghazi, Libya (in OTL discussions started in 2010 but were soon shelved due to the Arab Spring), Port Sudan, Sudan (like in OTL; maybe in exchange for help against rebels in southern Sudan) and maybe even in Venezuela (after the attempted coup in 2002). If things unfold differently in the Balkans and Montenegro remains part of the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia the Russians could also open a base in Kotor (like they tried to do in 2013 in OTL).
  5. Regarding China I can see Russia agreeing to sell the Tupolev Tu-22M long-range bombers in TTL (in OTL the Chinese tried many times to acquire these bombers but the Russians always refused to avoid provoking the West). The Russians and Chinese could also decide to start conducting joint naval and sea patrols much earlier than in OTL.
  6. Russian relations with India will most likely remain like in OTL for the moment with the development of the BRAMOS missile and PAK-FA/SU-57 programs going like in OTL. Same thing with the purchasing of the Su-30MKIs and of the Kiev-class carrier "Admiral Gorshkov/ INS Vikramaditya. In TTL India could also decide to proceed with the acquisition of four Tu-22Ms for maritime reconnaissance and strike purposes (in OTL India signed a contract with Russia but decided to withdraw as China did not have modern bombers at the time).
  7. Apart from a focus on bringing back to active service the Kirov-class battlecruiser "Admiral Nakhimov" (doable as soon as 2006 if funds were allocated correctly) and acquiring and than completing the forth Slava-class cruiser "Ukrayinia" (like it was planned in OTL before th Euromaidan) the development of the Russian armed forces would more than likely proced like in OTL (maybe a bit faster thanks to more funds being diverted towards the military). No Mistral-class warships deal with France due to worse relations with the West.
Italy
After the victory of the left, the Rutelli I government would most likely focus on launching important social reforms by modernizing welfare and relaunching the Italian economy, passing the PACS, the short divorce and several other secular measures and a reform of the electoral law by introducing a majority bonus in the Chamber of Deputies. There would also have been massive investments in the Environment, Education and Infrastructure. The MOSE dams to protect Venice and the Strait of Messina Bridge would have been built and Alitalia would have been sold to Air France-KLM (in OTL was Berlusconi that prevented it from taking place). Regarding the Taranto steelworks thing can go in two directions:
  1. the owners of the factory decide to follow the directives of the government and of the EU and invest in the modernization of the plant.
  2. the steelwork is confiscated earlier than in OTL and it's sold to a foreign steel producer; maybe in TTL, it is an Indonesian and not Indian corporation that buys the plant.
In the right-wing coalition, Berlusconi would have more than likely been dumped and replaced by Fini or Casini. Both of them would move towards the establishment of a single right-wing party in order to better contest the election (it is very likely that it will still be called "il Popolo della libertà" as in OTL).

Iran
It is very likely that if the USA invades Iraq and start putting pressure on Iran as they did in OTL the government in Teheran would drift towards Russia and maybe even join the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO).

Uzbekistan
For the moment the country has drifted towards the West but it is very plausible that just like Pakistan, Uzbekistan would close down US bases in the 2010s and then join first the SCO (Shanghai Cooperation Organization) and drift slowly back towards China and Russia; especially when the US will withdraw from Afghanistan in the 2020s.

Afghanistan:
Events will unfold more or less like in OTL since the deployments of Indonesians troops in the country would not change things that much.

P.S. Sorry for the post being so long!
 
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@Marco Rivignani, not long at all. In fact it gives me great insight into how Europe would be like ITTL. The post on Russia is great because I can imagine what China is doing but drawing a blank on what Russia is doing.

The only correction is ITTL Indonesia doesn’t deploy to Afghanistan. The US originally wanted Indonesia to deploy there but Indonesia managed to get out it by the Philippines lobbying for Indonesia to help with the Philippines’ Islamists insurgency. The plot twist is that more recently, Indonesia found out that it was Australia that was really pushing the US to pressure Indonesia into deploying troops to Afghanistan.

I have two three questions:
-Would the EU try to become a “pole” in a multipolar world rather than unquestioningly sticking with the US on the basis of NATO in this “New Cold War” situation? I mean, Russia is not getting on with the United States but it’s not as though its “capitalists vs communists” all over again.

-Would Indonesia standing up more strongly to terrorism decrease anti-Islam or anti-immigrant sentiment in Europe?

-Can Milosevic remain in power in Yugoslavia backed by Russia and China indefinitely or is there something that would provoke the US and/or NATO to eventually move against him?
 
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@Marco Rivignani
Would it possible Indonesia to buy Tu-22M3, KEPD Taurus, Storm Shadow??
As long as the government in Jakarta doesn't go actively against the Russians, the Indonesian Air Force should have no problem acquiring the Tu-22M3 bombers from Russia. However, considering that China planned to buy/produce 36 aircraft and India just four I don't see Indonesia operating more than a dozen aircraft. The bombers would also come with the Russian-built Raduga Kh-22 long-range anti-ship missile if it is intended to use them as a maritime strike platform.

Regarding the KEPD Taurus and the Storm Shadow, I see no problem in acquiring them as long as the budget allows it and for the fact they can only be mounted on Tornado, Eurofighter Typhoon, Gripen, F/A-18 and F-15K jets or the Tornado, Saab Gripen, Dassault Mirage 2000 and Dassault Rafale aircraft respectively.
It makes no sense to buy both missile systems so it depends on what aircraft are brought first.
 
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The only correction is ITTL Indonesia doesn’t deploy to Afghanistan. The US originally wanted Indonesia to deploy there but Indonesia managed to get out it by the Philippines lobbying for Indonesia to help with the Philippines’ Islamists insurgency. The plot twist is that more recently, Indonesia found out that it was Australia that was really pushing the US to pressure Indonesia into deploying troops to Afghanistan.
Sorry for my misunderstanding.
-Would the EU try to become a “pole” in a multipolar world rather than unquestioningly sticking with the US on the basis of NATO in this “New Cold War” situation? I mean, Russia is not getting on with the United States but it’s not as though its “capitalists vs communists” all over again.
If tensions rise quicker than in OTL the European Union could realistically decide that it's better to play both sides rather than stick to only one of them. You also need to consider that Europe depends on Russia, Belarus and Ukraine to get oil and gas (Russia being the producer state and the other being transit states just like in OTL. Europe could also decide to move earlier and more decisively towards creating a joint military in order to be able to be more autonomous when it comes to military matters. Relations between the EU and the USA could be strained by the USA invasion of Iraq (if it happens in OTL) since France, Germany, Spain, Portugal and also Italy in TTL would be against the invasion.

One more note is that the A-400 Atlas would proceed a little bit faster than in OTL since Italy would not have withdrawn from the project (since Berlusconi supported the deployment of troops to Iraq it was deemed more suitable for Italy to acquire the American C-130Js as transport aircraft)
-Would Indonesia standing up more strongly to terrorism decrease anti-Islam or anti-immigrant sentiment in Europe?
I personally don't see any impact that different actions from Indonesia could have on the view that Europeans have on immigration and Islam. I don't want to offend anyone but the common European politician or person doesn't care very much about what happens in Indonesia.
-Can Milosevic remain in power in Yugoslavia backed by Russia and China indefinitely or is there something that would provoke the US and/or NATO to eventually move against him?
The answer is yes. If Russia and China give more overt support to Yugoslavia and help Milosevic just like they did with Belarus in OTL he could very well become a Yugoslav "Lukashenko". Without the fall of Milosevich, Duganovich would have been ousted in the 2002 Montenegrin parliamentary elections by the pro-Serbia Bulatovich cementing Montenegro as a part of Yugoslavia. Another very plausible thing is that, apart from hosting a Russian military base at Kotor, Yugoslavia would have joined the CSTO in order to protect itself from NATO forces in Kosovo. Yugoslavia would also more than likely buy Mig-35s, two or four Gepard-class frigates and maybe even two improved Kilo-class submarines from Russia. All of this could very well lead to an expedited entry of Croatia, Albania and North Macedonia into NATO.

I would also like to add something more about Ukraine: after the suppression of the Orange Revolution and the rise to power, we would more than likely see the establishment of the South-East Ukrainian Autonomous Republic (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/South-East_Ukrainian_Autonomous_Republic) and the accession to the CSTO of Ukraine as a full member. We would have seen continued development and eventual production of the Russo-Ukrainian An-70 transport and a restart of production lines for the construction of new and modernized An-124 in the mid-2010s (like planned in OTL) and Zubr-class LCAC for the Russian Navy (also planned in OTL but delayed due to the Euromaidan). There would have been no 2005-2006 Russia–Ukraine gas disputes but the bridge between Crimea and Russia would have been delayed somewhat or maybe not. I have to assume however that even in TTL Zelensky or someone like him would have still been elected in around 2018 as an antiestablishment candidate just like it happened in OTL in Armenia with Nikol Vovayi Pashinyan. The country would just as Armenia did in OTL remain very close to Russia while trying to improve relations with the West. All of this could however lead to a drift towards Europe in Moldova.

Hope this post was useful. Feel free to ask any questions you might have.
 
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Regarding the KEPD Taurus and the Storm Shadow, I see no problem in acquiring them as long as the budget allows it and for the fact they can only be mounted on Tornado, Eurofighter Typhoon, Gripen, F/A-18 and F-15K jets
How about Indonesia adquiring USA Hornets and Eagles? Like a way of saying "thank you" for the Freeport divestment ITTL.
You also need to consider that Europe depends on Russia, Belarus and Ukraine to get oil and gas
Could Indonesia help to fullfill some of the european demand? Implying more investment on oil industry, like Aramco ITTL.
 
How about Indonesia adquiring USA Hornets and Eagles? Like a way of saying "thank you" for the Freeport divestment ITTL.
I personally think that buying around 40 F-15K would be the best option for Indonesia but in the end, it is up to @GSD310 to decide. If the Indonesian government is really willing to invest in its armed forces it could buy Mistral-class helicopter carriers from France; FREEMs from Italy (just like in OTL) and maybe even improved Kilo-class submarines from Russia or Type 214 submarines from Germany.
Could Indonesia help to fullfill some of the european demand? Implying more investment on oil industry, like Aramco ITTL.
Could be possible but even with more investments Russian oil and gas would steel be more competitive since its transportation costs would be a lot less when compared with the Indonesian one.
 
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I personally think that buying around 40 F-15K would be the best option for Indonesia but in the end, it is up to @GSD310 to decide. If the Indonesian government is really willing to invest in its armed forces it could buy Mistral-class helicopter carriers from France; FREEMs from Italy (just like in OTL) and maybe even improved Kilo-class submarines from Russia or Type 214 submarines from Germany.

Could be possible but even with more investments Russian oil and gas would steel be more competitive since its transportation costs would be a lot less when compared with the Indonesian one.
piuhhh at least TNI can acquired LHD, destroyer, bomber, and SRBM. Aussie have JASSM so they can target Indonesia any time and any place. 240 F-16, 80 Rafale / Su-35, 40 Su-32 , 4 E-3, 4 A-50 enough for TNI-AU.
 
If the Russian provided the weapons systems Gaddafi wanted in return for a naval and air base near Tripoli or Benghazi to extend Russian influence into the western Mediterranean, Gaddafi could decide to continue its nuclear program and maybe even be able with North Korean and covert Russian help (construction of reactors for "civilian" use) to obtain a bomb before the Arab Spring (assuming that it still takes place like in OTL).
 
167: Dark Clouds
1st April 2002:
President Try Sutrisno chaired a meeting to discuss national security attended by Vice President JB Sumarlin, Minister of Home Affairs Harsudiono Hartas, Minister of Foreign Affairs Ginandjar Kartasasmita, Minister of Defense and Security Wismoyo Arismunandar, Minister of Legal Affairs Marzuki Darusman, Minister of Information, Post, and Telecommunications Oka Mahendra, Minister of Maritime Affairs and Fisheries Tanto Kuswanto, State Minister of National Security Soerjadi, Commander of ABRI Wiranto, Chief of BAKIN Ari Sudewo, State Secretary Edi Sudrajat, Cabinet Secretary Hayono Isman, Chairman of BP-7 Agus Widjojo, Attorney General Soedjono C. Atmonegoro, Governor of Lemhanas Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono, Army Chief of Staff TB Hasanuddin, Navy Chief of Staff Djoko Sumaryono, Air Force Chief of Staff Ali Munsiri Rappe, and Chief of Police Ansyaad Mbai.

The meeting was as follows:

Minutes of Cabinet National Security Meeting

Prepared by the Cabinet Secretariat


Opening Remarks:
The President welcomed those present to the cabinet meeting and congratulates the Navy Chief of Staff and the Chief of Police for their appointments. The President said that the purpose of meeting is to discuss his recent trip as well as matters which occurred and arose during said trip which concerns Indonesia’s national security.

Without further ado, the President invites the State Secretary to report to the cabinet about the President’s recent trip.

The President’s Recent Trip to Iran, the Philippines, and Fiji:
The State Secretary made a quick summary of the President’s recent trip to Iran, the Philippines, and Fiji and some of the notable things agreed upon. A full summary has been distributed to cabinet members prior to the meeting.

The President approved of the report and called on the Minister of Foreign Affairs to speak about the next item.

Myanmar:
The Minister of Foreign Affairs reported that he had begun taking the temperature of the ASEAN Nations about the possibility of meeting to discuss Myanmar. Prime Minister of Malaysia Najib Razak had suggested an informal meeting on the sidelines of the new Yang Dipertuan Agung’s installation next month. The Minister of Foreign Affairs advised that the government show some goodwill towards Malaysia even if Malaysia has sided with China in backing Myanmar.

The Minister of Foreign Affairs next reported that from Myanmar, itself Chairman of SPDC Khin Nyunt has expressed his disappointment that Indonesia had not recognized his government but that he is keen to explain his position to the other ASEAN Nations at the first possible opportunity.

The Vice President asked why are Malaysia and Myanmar “playing nice”. The State Minister of National Security explained that this was because Malaysia and Myanmar, as well as Cambodia, and by extension China, know that things still hang in the balance in ASEAN. China may have strengthened its position in ASEAN by adding another ally but it knows that by taking sides in internal Southeast Asian affairs, it knows that it has strengthened Indonesia’s case that Southeast Asia nations should unite to counter China’s influence.

The President said that since he is scheduled to attend the Yang Dipertuang Agung’s installation, he will take up Malaysia’s offer for an informal meeting attended by all ASEAN members.

When the meeting was about to move on the next item, the Minister of Defense and Security as well as the Commander of ABRI asked for the opportunity to speak. They reported that Lt. Gen. Shwe Mann, the ousted Joint Chief of Staff of the Army, Navy, and Air Force had eluded capture by Khin Nyunt and gone into hiding. Shwe Mann had contacted the Minister of Defense and Security and the Commander of ABRI prior to the latter two’s departure from Myanmar. Shwe Mann said that he wished to consolidate forces within the Tatmadaw which were loyal to him and then bring these troops to Indonesia. The Commander of ABRI explained that they could not convey this to the President while they were in Myanmar out of fear that their phones were tapped.

The President instructed the Minister of Defense and Security and the Commander of ABRI to keep their contact with Shwe Mann.

Oceania:
The President reported to the meeting about what he’d heard from the Indonesian citizens gathered from all over Oceania at Fiji about OPM’s activities. He expressed his concern that this was the case and invited the Chief of BAKIN for his thoughts.

The Chief of BAKIN began by saying that in the years since the President assumed office but most especially since Irian Jaya gained more autonomy and made a special region, the OPM has become insignificant because the current government has made more effort to gain the support of the general populace than the previous government and created favorable conditions.

Since around 2000, BAKIN has recorded decreasing amounts of OPM fighters and that this was odd because ABRI had not been conducting any operations against them. At the same time, reports from agents in Papua New Guinea, including the military attache at the Embassy indicates there hasn’t been any significant activity by the OPM over there, no one crossing over from Irian Jaya and trying to plan something from there. There are similar reports from Australia and New Zealand, saying that there are no increased OPM presence there.

BAKIN has had a working analysis that the missing OPM fighters are in other Oceania countries outside of Australia, New Zealand, and Papua New Guinea but that these reports the President brought to the meeting confirms that the OPM are present in other Oceania countries trying to raise funds.

The Minister of Foreign Affairs enquired why the OPM had chosen other Oceania countries instead of Australia, New Zealand, and Papua New Guinea to raise funds. He also asked what was the OPM’s purpose for raising these funds.

The Chief of BAKIN said that the most likely answer to the first question is secrecy as there are less BAKIN resources anywhere outside of Australia, New Zealand, and Papua New Guinea. As for the second question, he prefers to gather more information first.

The President approved of the Chief of BAKIN’s report. He instructs the Minister of Foreign Affairs, the Commander of ABRI, and the Chief of BAKIN to coordinate with each other about how to staff the new Embassy in Fiji and to use that embassy as a base for intelligence gathering in Oceania.

The President said that developments about the OPM being active in Oceania presents a dilemma about where to focus Indonesia’s energy. If the current state of affairs with the OPM continues, uniting Southeast Asia behind Indonesia to counter China’s influence means turning our backs on a region where the OPM has taken refuge to prepare for something that most certainly will not be positive for Indonesia’s interest.

The Army Chief of Staff argued that turning one’s back on China to focus on Oceania is even more dangerous than the other way around because China is the bigger threat.

The Air Force Chief of Staff said that Indonesia could afford to turn its back on China “for a little bit” because geographically speaking, Vietnam and Thailand can keep China busy.

The Minister of Maritime Affairs and Fisheries said that while it is not safe to turn Indonesia’s back on China but said that it was dangerous to have enemies hiding in small nations in the vast Pacific Ocean.

The Navy Chief of Staff echoed this saying that since Bainimarama’s assumption of power in Fiji, the Navy had grown close with the government there on the basis of Bainimarama being a Naval officer and had concluded that Fiji was the only nation in Oceania that is “unambiguously reliable” as far as Indonesia and the OPM were concerned. The others seemed to have sympathies for the OPM whether overt or otherwise.

---
Minister of Home Affairs Harsudiono Hartas observed the exchange of opinions between his fellow officials then saw Minister of Legal Affairs Marzuki Darusman putting his hand up to ask for a chance to speak.

“I believe that Indonesia can achieve its goals of ensuring its security from threats coming from Oceania’s direction and China at the same time provided that it is cautious” said Marzuki “By cautious, I mean we do not begin to focus on Oceania until we have a real grievance.”

“Define ‘real’”, asked Minister of Foreign Affairs Ginandjar Kartasasmita.

“Real in this case means actual evidence of the OPM’s presence in those Oceania countries”, explained Marzuki calmly “If we go to them based on unsubstantiated reports, we’ll look like 17,000 islands trying to bully little islands spread throughout the Pacific…if we go to them with something based on verified reports and solid evidence and we can say they are aiding and abetting separatist groups if they do not help us.”

There were murmurs of approval from around the room but Harsudiono was most intrigued at Ginandjar looking annoyed that Marzuki was venturing into his turf.
---
The President approved of the Minister of Legal Affairs’ advice.

The President orders all present to utilize their departments and/or agencies’ resources and prepare ways to counter the OPM’s presence in Oceania. Under no circumstance must the departments and/or agencies betray the fact that Indonesia has sensed the OPM’s presence in Oceania.

The President closed the meeting​

---
Harsudiono Hartas walked to State Secretary Edi Sudrajat. Harsudiono smiled as he spoke to Edi about Ginandjar’s reaction.

“He’s not the only one who’s unhappy”, said Edi nodding in the direction of Governor of Lemhanas Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono who was walking past them “Why’d you keep quiet, all this strategic stuff is right up your alley.”

Yudhoyono shook hands with Edi and Harsudiono with an enigmatic smile.

“I suppose being passed twice for the Army Chief of Staff’s position will do that to you”, said Edi again.

Harsudiono nodded then looked serious.

“You think it’s wise for him to go to Malaysia?” asked Harsudiono “The Election Campaign would have started by then.”

“Tutut will be attending the Yang Dipertuan Agung’s installation”, explained Edi “It’s important that she doesn’t get the international stage all to herself.”

“I see”, said Harsudiono looking unconvinced “I still think he needs to stay in the country for the entirety of the campaign.”

“Just for a few days”, said Edi “Then he’ll be in the country until the official count of the votes are out.”

2nd April 2002:
Chairwoman of the PNI Megawati Soekarnoputri opened the PNI National Leadership Meeting today. She reminds all PNI candidates and PNI members that only the PNI stands for real change. Megawati said that it was still possible for newspapers and magazines to be closed down, for books to be banned, and for mass arrests to be conducted. The change that the current government stands for is change around the edges not real change.

Head of BKPM Mari Pangestu attended a lunch with Jakarta’s Foreign Correspondents. She made a speech highlighting the fact that domestic investments in the first quarter of the 2002 is still strong despite the fact that they are nearing the election period. She said that this was because domestic investors are taking advantage of the strong currency to make new investments and expand existing investments. Mari ran into trouble when she was asked whether the strong investment figures close to the election was because domestic investors wanted to get their businesses set up in case the PKPI loses the election, President Try is not re-elected, and the investment climate becomes less conducive. She could only answer weakly that investors have their considerations.

Later in the day, Minister of Industry Siswono Yudohusodo said that the best thing domestic investors could do if they are afraid of “going back to the old days” of more red tape and bribes is if they vote for the correct party at the next election.

3rd April 2002:
The President landed in Ujung Pandang, South Sulawesi in the morning. After being welcomed by Governor of South Sulawesi Zainal Basri Palaguna, the Presidential entourage first went to Janetaesa Village, Maros near Ujung Pandang where the President, accompanied by Minister of Agriculture Sarwono Kusumaatmadja and State Minister of Rural Development Feisal Tamin, harvested rice in a paddy field and lifted the paddy up above his head for the cameras to see and snap.

Sitting down with the locals and after taking various questions, the President urged villagers to get their land certified so that they have legal certainty about their property and can become more productive, he also told them to participate and monitor the PNPM program which has been launched. One villager asked the President to ensure that electricity will be available in the village for 24 hours but said that he was thankful that electricity was available there.

“That’s good, because the election campaign’s coming soon and people will claim that the government have not done anything for villages”, said the President to laughter.

From Janetaesa, the President and his entourage departed for Ponre-Ponre Village where accompanied by Sarwono Kusumaatmadja, Siswono Yudohusodo, Minister of Public Works Rachmat Witoelar, Minister of Transportation Soerjadi Soedirja, and State Minister of State-Owned Enterprises Cacuk Sudarijanto, the President inaugurated the following:

*The Ponre-Ponre Dam
*The Sekka-Sekka Dam
*The 5th Unit of the Tonasa Cement Factory
*3rd and 4th Stretches of the Ujung Pandang Toll Road
*The Sultan Hasanuddin International Airport New Terminal Building

In his speech, the President spoke of giving South Sulawesi the tools to make its contribution to the Indonesian economy.

While the President toured the new dam, he found that Soerjadi Soedirja was walking next to him. When he praised the latter for his work, Soerjadi reported that in the last 6 months, progress at the Kuala Namu Airport at Medan has been minimal. The President asked who’s the contractor and frowned when Soerjadi gave the information.

By late afternoon, the Presidential entourage had returned to Ujung Pandang. He met with Palaguna and other high-ranking provincial officials. During the meeting, he approved of South Sulawesi’s intention to build a railway from Ujung Pandang to Pare-Pare saying that South Sulawesi has done its homework of collecting regional taxes. From there, the President and his entourage took the late flight home to Jakarta.

4th April 2002:
The President, accompanied by Minister of Health Azrul Azwar, inaugurated the Ciptomangunkusumo Inpatient Building, a building for second- and third-class hospital wards containing 900 beds. As the President toured the facilities and shook hands with its staff, Cabinet Secretary Hayono Isman fended off questions about where Edi Sudrajat was saying that today was about health.

The reason for Edi’s absence was having lunch with Chairman of the PKPI National Campaign Hendropriyono. The latter disagreed that the President should go to Malaysia and said that his focus should be domestic during the Election campaign. Edi said that while he personally agrees, he must do what the President has directed him to do and that is to prepare for a trip to Malaysia in a few weeks’ time.

“The PNI’s best weapon is their activism, the PKPB’s are their money and organization, the PPP’s is them wanting to continue being part of the governing coalition”, argued Hendropriyono “Ours is the President, if we can’t deploy him fully…

“It is only for a few days” countered Edi.

“Yet a few days can mean…” argued Hendropriyono before Edi cut him off.

“He has to govern, he doesn’t have the luxury of being on campaign mode all the time”, said Edi.

“It’s okay, we’ll make do”, said Hendropriyono not wishing to argue further.

Edi nodded and then he handed a folder to Hendropriyono.

“This is tomorrow’s announcement”, said Edi “It should give you more material for campaign advertisement.”

5th April 2002:
Mar’ie Muhammad came out of a meeting with the President and Vice President JB Sumarlin. Though he kept a poker face, Mar’ie made the announcement that the Government had just paid back all of the loans it received from the IMF during the Asian Financial Crisis in 1997. Mar’ie said that this had happened quicker than expected but that it has been made possible by the Indonesian economy’s strong performance and the 10-year moratorium on the payment of debt obtained in late 2001.

At Cendana Street, Chairwoman of the PKPB Tutut Soeharto watched this announcement on the television.

“Don’t worry, Mbakyu”, said Chairman of the PKPB National Campaign Prabowo Subianto.

“It’s yet another achievement they can claim during the campaign”, said Tutut.

“Nothing changes, they’re on the defensive”, countered Prabowo “They’re on the defensive, other than Harmoko and Hendropriyono, none of the higher-ups want to admit that the votes they should be going after are in the rural areas. If the President realizes it, he has a day job that keeps him from focusing fully on campaign issues.”

Tutut nodded in agreement.

“Four years ago, you and I promised to put our differences aside and since that time we’ve been on a long journey together”, said Prabowo “Now we must focus because our destination is fast approaching. Stick to our game plan. We can win this.”
---
The two major events are the national security meeting at the beginning and the government successfully paying off the loans it incurred from the IMF during the Asian Financial Crisis (In OTL, it took until 2006 for the loans to be paid off).

How deep are we into the TL? Deep enough that things that happened ITTL is history. Prabowo and Tutut putting their differences aside is from Update 17 https://www.alternatehistory.com/fo...try-sutrisno-1997.425151/page-3#post-16079778
 
Really curious on how the government would plan to bring those Myanmar loyalist soldiers into the country and as a railfan it's really good that Indonesia rail network is expanding beyond Java and Sumatra.
 
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Really curious on how the government would plan to bring those Myanmar loyalist soldiers into the country and as a railfan it's really good Indonesia rail network is expanding beyond Java and Sumatra.
I find it even more interesting if the Gov accepts them to even enter the country. Even though we play the typical non interference as usual, it seems this is seen as an exception since we see PRC support the Coup Gov. Essentially it felt like it’s a start of a little cold war between Indonesia and its gang with PRC. But tbh I kinda at loss a bit abt Myanmar since technically it felt were interfering in other country affairs yet it seems legitimate since Its Shwe Mann and probably his loyalists that requests help to the Gov.
 
Pfftt Malaysia become PRC satelite almost imposible with London tight grip on them. I am truly curious why London did not make any movement.
 
Really curious on how the government would plan to bring those Myanmar loyalist soldiers into the country and as a railfan it's really good that Indonesia rail network is expanding beyond Java and Sumatra.
I find it even more interesting if the Gov accepts them to even enter the country. Even though we play the typical non interference as usual, it seems this is seen as an exception since we see PRC support the Coup Gov. Essentially it felt like it’s a start of a little cold war between Indonesia and its gang with PRC. But tbh I kinda at loss a bit abt Myanmar since technically it felt were interfering in other country affairs yet it seems legitimate since Its Shwe Mann and probably his loyalists that requests help to the Gov.

Keep tuning in to see what happens regarding Myanmar.

Pfftt Malaysia become PRC satelite almost imposible with London tight grip on them. I am truly curious why London did not make any movement.
Ooh, I wouldn’t call ITTL Malaysia a satellite. Cambodia and Myanmar will certainly be more subservient. The way China was the first to declare its support for Khin Nyunt parallels how OTL China was the first to declare its support for Hun Sen when he took over Cambodia OTL.

OTL Najib Razak favored closer relations with China (https://www.google.co.id/amp/s/www.policyforum.net/najibs-china-legacy/amp/) so that’s the OTL basis for the China-Malaysian relationship. I would say that China’s relationship with Malaysia ITTL is probably more similar to ITTL India and Indonesia’s relationship. India is in favor of Indonesia being no. 1 in SE Asia to counter China. The same way China is friendly towards Malaysia so that it can counter Indonesia.

Probably another factor that’s no less important is that ITTL Malaysia basically takes on some of the characteristics of OTL Indonesia though nowhere near as bad. It suffers some political turbulence (3 PMs since 1997), it struggles a little bit to get out of the crisis, and it becomes sensitive when seeing how the saudara serumpun is doing.

As to why the UK is not doing anything. Preoccupation with Afghanistan as well as Australia and NZ whispering in its ears. Remember ITTL NZ is home to East Timor Govt in exile and Australia has some ambivalence towards a strong Indonesia.
 
Will the projected nuclear power plant in Mount Muria (cancelled due to the Asian financial crisis) be built in this timeline?
Maybe if they could do it before 2011 because of well Fukushima for the possibility of making the people fear of nuclear energy. And maybe took some learning about earthquake proof building after the 2004 Tsunami. And also maybe learn more how to make it to be as clean as possible (like how to properly handle the nuclear waste, ensuring that the area is not affected by radiation, or if the government willing enough maybe try to research a cleaner nuclear fuel like what I heard currently it Thorium based fuel) but umm take my word with benefit of a doubt tho I’m not a nuclear engineer.
 
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