So there's been quite a few Operation Downfall timelines and discussion, the invasion of Japan had they not surrendered.
But I haven't seen many discuss the impact on East and Southeast Asia as a result of a longer war. And thus I'd like to hear people's thoughts on it.
My knowledge is limited but:
CHINA
I haven't read well into any of these situations but firstly with China it seemed like with the Kwantung army in Manchuria being obliterated by the Soviets, Japanese last ditch attacks to make headway towards Chongqing failing against better equipped KMT forces, and some Chinese counter attacks across the front towards the end of the war which liberated South China.
I'm not sure about the rest of the military situation but I think it's safe to say the Chinese would defeat the Japanese by the end of 1945 or early 1946, probably with some holdouts here and there.
As for the political ramifications, would a longer war favor the KMT over the Communists? Correct me if I'm wrong but I assumed the 'sudden' surrender of Japan IOTL led to a power vacuum which the Communists took advantage of in the north with expanding their territory, taking Japanese prisoners (and 'volunteers') and equipment. I also think OTL's sudden surrender kinda 'stole' the KMT's thunder by taking away a decisive liberation campaign that freed the Chinese population from the Japanese.
So I guess China might have had a stronger KMT then? Worst case scenario for them I guess in TTL would be the Civil War continuing and the war lasting past 1950. Beyond that, I can't say but it does seem to make a Communist takeover less likely and at best just a long bloody insurgency. At best for the communists, I see them retreat northwards and establish a long standing presence in Manchuria which might be aided or protected by the Soviets who would want to keep their access to North Korea.
KOREA
While it was agreed upon that the country would be split into two, the Soviets stopped their advances on the Yalu river in Korea, meaning the remainder of the Japanese forces were still in South Korea. Would the Soviets continue their advance even though they agreed with the Americans that they would stop halfway? I don't know as a longer war might compel the Americans to let the Soviets go ahead and clear out S. Korea, but then again would Stalin want to if he knew he had to hand it over to the Americans after not gaining anything out of it? I could see the Americans just ignoring South Korea until after Japan surrendered and the Soviets would just hold onto their side, letting the remaining Japanese forces in S. Korea to remain trapped until the war ended.
Aftermath of this? Maybe a stronger communist presence perhaps? That and a weaker Chinese communist force in Mainland China could find sanctuary in N. Korea. The Soviets might even tighten its grip over North Korea if the KMT seem to be in firm control of China. That actually might mean the Soviets would not give Kim Il Sung the go ahead to attack South Korea as a tighter Soviet influence means they're more responsible for the war and the West would have more reason to antagonize the Soviets for not controlling their puppet better.
So yeah, possibly no Korean War? Or maybe a longer insurgency with more Soviet and Chinese aid? Other than that, no clue on what Korea would look like today.
THAILAND
There doesn't seem to be much talks or mentions of any planned invasion of Thailand in 1945 or later. I know that Thailand, which still allied itself with Japan, evacuated out of Burma after the Japanese invasion of India failed and were pushed back into Thailand. I don't know the exact size of composition of the Japanese-Thai army and what their defenses looked like if the Allies did invade. But it seems as if the Allies weren't interested in invading it probably due to not wanting to get sucked into a war against a country, even if it was a minor one. Besides, why expend men and resources in Thailand when they can focus on taking back Malaysia and Singapore?
I doubt Thailand wanted to send troops down south to meet the British forces invading Malaysia. I dont even think Japanese Command wants to too much allocate forces in Thailand there. I think the Japanese would have decided to entrench themselves in and around the capital.
Politically, this is much harder to say but I feel like nothing much might have changed because Thailand was being ignored in favor of liberating Malaysia so unless the Thai government switched sides and turned on the Japanese, I think the outcome would be similar to OTL: Thailand surrenders along Japan, faces fines and reparations, Thai Military Dictator is removed from power, and we might get something close to present day with a Constitutional Monarchy backed up by a strong military government that is adverse to democracy.
MALAYSIA
The British planned on invading Malaysia and Singapore from the sea called Operation Mailfist for political and economic reasons much to the annoyance of the Americans who thought resources could be better spent planning for Downfall. It was planned to commence in December 1945 and presumed to end in March 1946. I can't say how well defended Singapore would have been since it's hard to get numbers on the size of the garrison. I wonder if it would have turned into a similar Battle of Manila which saw heavy urban fighting and the destruction of the city.
Politically, I think it could go either way. Either the operation goes as planned and isn't too costly to the Malaysian populace and they might appreciate British liberation a bit more. If casualties are too high, I can see the communists becoming a stronger force. Maybe not enough to takeover (due to it being isolated from China, which did help Vietnam IOTL) but possibly a slightly longer insurgency. Singapore might be damaged from the fighting but I think it would be able to recover. Possibly taking a bit longer to reach its current OTL status.
Though regarding the multi ethnic situation that lasts IOTL to this day as well, I have no clue what a Second Battle of Malaysia would have done to the varying groups from Muslims to Buddhists to Hindus to Chinese groups.
INDOCHINA
Like Thailand, I don't see any planned invasions to liberate it from Japanese rule. Again, probably seen as not worth the resources and men, despite France possibly being upset by the reality. IOTL De Gaulle was mad that the US and British didn't consider liberating Indochina.
I know the Viet Minh were given weapons and equipment by the American OSS and they probably would have continued to receive support in a longer war. But according to OTL, their attacks were rather ineffective and they lacked the numbers to fully take on the Japanese. So while guerilla attacks would have continued, I think nothing much would change against the Japanese. At best, they might win over more support from the locals like in the South for trying to liberate the country from the imperialists and thus having more foothold in S. Vietnam.
That could undermine French support more and I think tip the scale in the Communists' favor, resulting in a shorter Indochina War. Regarding a possible Vietnam War with the US, it's hard to say as Operation Downfall could have titanic ramifications on US foreign policy, either becoming more pacifist to avoid the horrendous casualties from the invasion or becoming more hawkish to never let a threat to America rise again.
Regardless, I see Vietnam reuniting under the communists eventually, possibly sooner. As for Cambodia and Laos, I don't know much about both but I'll assume they also fall to communist governments.
INDONESIA
Probably the least knowledge I have on. I only heard tidbits about the Indonesian Nationalist movements that helped spark the Revolution to free themselves from the Dutch, which resulted in several tens of thousands dead before the country became independent. Apparently it 'helped' that the Indonesian military and factions received some training by the Japanese and had several Japanese 'volunteers' helping them fight the Allies during the Revolution.
A longer war might strengthen Indonesia's nationalist forces more so for the Revolution, which might lead to a faster independence and end to the war.
MYANMAR
Another one I don't know much on and it seems rather complicated with so many ethnic groups and so on. Could a longer war mean a firmer British control of Burma to establish order to help its independence? Or would the British face more resistance being there longer?
Who knows if it would have prevented the long and still ongoing ethnic clashes and civil war in the country to this day.
JAPAN
Oooph, the world would look incredibly different if Japan was obliterated in Operation Downfall. I don't even know where to start. I mean, I dont even know how it would end. All I know is that the world would probably be worse off without OTL Japan. A much longer and costly recovery that might never get to OTL's point, dealing with a heavily indoctrinated population and a harsh costly military occupation, the Soviets might take their northern Island and Japanese communists might have a stronger presence post-war. Over a hundred thousand casualties or more for the Allies which will drastically affect their foreign policy I feel.
Yeah, there's no silver lining in this other than the possibility of Japan being more... 'open' to the outside world in the long run? With a smaller and devastated Japanese population, we might see Japan/the Allied Occupation force receiving migrants from around the world to help rebuild the destroyed nation as Germany asked migrants to after WWII. We might see traditionalism in general in Japan become weaker than OTL through thorough American/Soviet reeducation campaigns, though at the same time I could see a strong post-war fascist terrorist movement who will never forgive the Allies for the devastation and destroying traditions.
OVERALL
It seems to me that overall, communism would be much weaker in China and Southeast Asia, Indochina and Indonesia might have mildly stronger nationalist forces to combat the Allies, Thailand and Burma might not change much compared to OTL, communism might be stronger in Manchuria, Korea, and Japan thanks to the Chinese communists being pushed northwards and consolidating near the Soviet sphere and the Soviet invasion of Japan might help them, and finally Japan + the world could be worse off if Downfall went ahead, with the only silver lining being a total restart in Japanese culture and society to become less traditionalist and monoethnically Japanese.
So what do you guys think?
EDIT:
Dang, I forgot about India, derp. A bit too tired to write in detail about it but I can see India possibly having a role in Downfall and that would impact its post-war state. Or maybe the Indian divisions aren't used? Who knows.
But I haven't seen many discuss the impact on East and Southeast Asia as a result of a longer war. And thus I'd like to hear people's thoughts on it.
My knowledge is limited but:
CHINA
I haven't read well into any of these situations but firstly with China it seemed like with the Kwantung army in Manchuria being obliterated by the Soviets, Japanese last ditch attacks to make headway towards Chongqing failing against better equipped KMT forces, and some Chinese counter attacks across the front towards the end of the war which liberated South China.
I'm not sure about the rest of the military situation but I think it's safe to say the Chinese would defeat the Japanese by the end of 1945 or early 1946, probably with some holdouts here and there.
As for the political ramifications, would a longer war favor the KMT over the Communists? Correct me if I'm wrong but I assumed the 'sudden' surrender of Japan IOTL led to a power vacuum which the Communists took advantage of in the north with expanding their territory, taking Japanese prisoners (and 'volunteers') and equipment. I also think OTL's sudden surrender kinda 'stole' the KMT's thunder by taking away a decisive liberation campaign that freed the Chinese population from the Japanese.
So I guess China might have had a stronger KMT then? Worst case scenario for them I guess in TTL would be the Civil War continuing and the war lasting past 1950. Beyond that, I can't say but it does seem to make a Communist takeover less likely and at best just a long bloody insurgency. At best for the communists, I see them retreat northwards and establish a long standing presence in Manchuria which might be aided or protected by the Soviets who would want to keep their access to North Korea.
KOREA
While it was agreed upon that the country would be split into two, the Soviets stopped their advances on the Yalu river in Korea, meaning the remainder of the Japanese forces were still in South Korea. Would the Soviets continue their advance even though they agreed with the Americans that they would stop halfway? I don't know as a longer war might compel the Americans to let the Soviets go ahead and clear out S. Korea, but then again would Stalin want to if he knew he had to hand it over to the Americans after not gaining anything out of it? I could see the Americans just ignoring South Korea until after Japan surrendered and the Soviets would just hold onto their side, letting the remaining Japanese forces in S. Korea to remain trapped until the war ended.
Aftermath of this? Maybe a stronger communist presence perhaps? That and a weaker Chinese communist force in Mainland China could find sanctuary in N. Korea. The Soviets might even tighten its grip over North Korea if the KMT seem to be in firm control of China. That actually might mean the Soviets would not give Kim Il Sung the go ahead to attack South Korea as a tighter Soviet influence means they're more responsible for the war and the West would have more reason to antagonize the Soviets for not controlling their puppet better.
So yeah, possibly no Korean War? Or maybe a longer insurgency with more Soviet and Chinese aid? Other than that, no clue on what Korea would look like today.
THAILAND
There doesn't seem to be much talks or mentions of any planned invasion of Thailand in 1945 or later. I know that Thailand, which still allied itself with Japan, evacuated out of Burma after the Japanese invasion of India failed and were pushed back into Thailand. I don't know the exact size of composition of the Japanese-Thai army and what their defenses looked like if the Allies did invade. But it seems as if the Allies weren't interested in invading it probably due to not wanting to get sucked into a war against a country, even if it was a minor one. Besides, why expend men and resources in Thailand when they can focus on taking back Malaysia and Singapore?
I doubt Thailand wanted to send troops down south to meet the British forces invading Malaysia. I dont even think Japanese Command wants to too much allocate forces in Thailand there. I think the Japanese would have decided to entrench themselves in and around the capital.
Politically, this is much harder to say but I feel like nothing much might have changed because Thailand was being ignored in favor of liberating Malaysia so unless the Thai government switched sides and turned on the Japanese, I think the outcome would be similar to OTL: Thailand surrenders along Japan, faces fines and reparations, Thai Military Dictator is removed from power, and we might get something close to present day with a Constitutional Monarchy backed up by a strong military government that is adverse to democracy.
MALAYSIA
The British planned on invading Malaysia and Singapore from the sea called Operation Mailfist for political and economic reasons much to the annoyance of the Americans who thought resources could be better spent planning for Downfall. It was planned to commence in December 1945 and presumed to end in March 1946. I can't say how well defended Singapore would have been since it's hard to get numbers on the size of the garrison. I wonder if it would have turned into a similar Battle of Manila which saw heavy urban fighting and the destruction of the city.
Politically, I think it could go either way. Either the operation goes as planned and isn't too costly to the Malaysian populace and they might appreciate British liberation a bit more. If casualties are too high, I can see the communists becoming a stronger force. Maybe not enough to takeover (due to it being isolated from China, which did help Vietnam IOTL) but possibly a slightly longer insurgency. Singapore might be damaged from the fighting but I think it would be able to recover. Possibly taking a bit longer to reach its current OTL status.
Though regarding the multi ethnic situation that lasts IOTL to this day as well, I have no clue what a Second Battle of Malaysia would have done to the varying groups from Muslims to Buddhists to Hindus to Chinese groups.
INDOCHINA
Like Thailand, I don't see any planned invasions to liberate it from Japanese rule. Again, probably seen as not worth the resources and men, despite France possibly being upset by the reality. IOTL De Gaulle was mad that the US and British didn't consider liberating Indochina.
I know the Viet Minh were given weapons and equipment by the American OSS and they probably would have continued to receive support in a longer war. But according to OTL, their attacks were rather ineffective and they lacked the numbers to fully take on the Japanese. So while guerilla attacks would have continued, I think nothing much would change against the Japanese. At best, they might win over more support from the locals like in the South for trying to liberate the country from the imperialists and thus having more foothold in S. Vietnam.
That could undermine French support more and I think tip the scale in the Communists' favor, resulting in a shorter Indochina War. Regarding a possible Vietnam War with the US, it's hard to say as Operation Downfall could have titanic ramifications on US foreign policy, either becoming more pacifist to avoid the horrendous casualties from the invasion or becoming more hawkish to never let a threat to America rise again.
Regardless, I see Vietnam reuniting under the communists eventually, possibly sooner. As for Cambodia and Laos, I don't know much about both but I'll assume they also fall to communist governments.
INDONESIA
Probably the least knowledge I have on. I only heard tidbits about the Indonesian Nationalist movements that helped spark the Revolution to free themselves from the Dutch, which resulted in several tens of thousands dead before the country became independent. Apparently it 'helped' that the Indonesian military and factions received some training by the Japanese and had several Japanese 'volunteers' helping them fight the Allies during the Revolution.
A longer war might strengthen Indonesia's nationalist forces more so for the Revolution, which might lead to a faster independence and end to the war.
MYANMAR
Another one I don't know much on and it seems rather complicated with so many ethnic groups and so on. Could a longer war mean a firmer British control of Burma to establish order to help its independence? Or would the British face more resistance being there longer?
Who knows if it would have prevented the long and still ongoing ethnic clashes and civil war in the country to this day.
JAPAN
Oooph, the world would look incredibly different if Japan was obliterated in Operation Downfall. I don't even know where to start. I mean, I dont even know how it would end. All I know is that the world would probably be worse off without OTL Japan. A much longer and costly recovery that might never get to OTL's point, dealing with a heavily indoctrinated population and a harsh costly military occupation, the Soviets might take their northern Island and Japanese communists might have a stronger presence post-war. Over a hundred thousand casualties or more for the Allies which will drastically affect their foreign policy I feel.
Yeah, there's no silver lining in this other than the possibility of Japan being more... 'open' to the outside world in the long run? With a smaller and devastated Japanese population, we might see Japan/the Allied Occupation force receiving migrants from around the world to help rebuild the destroyed nation as Germany asked migrants to after WWII. We might see traditionalism in general in Japan become weaker than OTL through thorough American/Soviet reeducation campaigns, though at the same time I could see a strong post-war fascist terrorist movement who will never forgive the Allies for the devastation and destroying traditions.
OVERALL
It seems to me that overall, communism would be much weaker in China and Southeast Asia, Indochina and Indonesia might have mildly stronger nationalist forces to combat the Allies, Thailand and Burma might not change much compared to OTL, communism might be stronger in Manchuria, Korea, and Japan thanks to the Chinese communists being pushed northwards and consolidating near the Soviet sphere and the Soviet invasion of Japan might help them, and finally Japan + the world could be worse off if Downfall went ahead, with the only silver lining being a total restart in Japanese culture and society to become less traditionalist and monoethnically Japanese.
So what do you guys think?
EDIT:
Dang, I forgot about India, derp. A bit too tired to write in detail about it but I can see India possibly having a role in Downfall and that would impact its post-war state. Or maybe the Indian divisions aren't used? Who knows.
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