How should LBJ have approached Vietnam?

I wonder what would've happened if Truman answered Ho Chi Minh's phone calls and recognized an independent Vietnam.
The general allohistorical agreement is communist france. Soviet aligned, stalinist, communist france. Due to the French. Not really due to the Soviet party.

You want to unleash the French "hards" who stockpiled whatever they could get 1943-1947 for political purposes? You want to unleash the people who wanted to overthrow French "democracy?" The people who use Stalin, as working class women and men, as a by word for actual communist revolution? People whose PCF has not even gone through the Togliatti transformation of the PCd'I / PCI over "hard" lines? And remember the PCI spawned Autonomia and Italian Maoism and BR.

At the most beneficial for the United States, imagine Brigado Rossi in France. At its most beneficial. Imagine De Gaul being kidnapped by French communist paramilitary and having his extremities cut off one at a time. With deBeauvoir writing positive commentary. And Lacan authorising it. On live radio.

The United States had greater interests than Vietnam, namely turning France into a colony economically.
 
Now the US elite may be dumb as a load of fucking bricks, but before the 1990s they actually promoted rather intelligent functionaries to positions of decision making power. And enough of those functionaries know that legitimising what appears to be communism legitimises communism.

Yeah, but China. Mao is a helluva scarier than Tito, and while Nixon didn't normalize the PRC to the extent that Yugoslavia got, they were still willing to semi-legitimize China, and at the expense of U.S. ally Taiwan, too.

The general allohistorical agreement is communist france. Soviet aligned, stalinist, communist france. Due to the French. Not really due to the Soviet party.

You want to unleash the French "hards" who stockpiled whatever they could get 1943-1947 for political purposes? You want to unleash the people who wanted to overthrow French "democracy?" The people who use Stalin, as working class women and men, as a by word for actual communist revolution? People whose PCF has not even gone through the Togliatti transformation of the PCd'I / PCI over "hard" lines? And remember the PCI spawned Autonomia and Italian Maoism and BR.

At the most beneficial for the United States, imagine Brigado Rossi in France. At its most beneficial. Imagine De Gaul being kidnapped by French communist paramilitary and having his extremities cut off one at a time. With deBeauvoir writing positive commentary. And Lacan authorising it. On live radio.

Aw, c'mon man, this is Red Flood-style gonzo Discord political extremism dystopia porn.
 
Australia, with attached Kiwis, was given a friendly wicket by the PLAF, didn't bat against PAVN bowling except at Long Tan, and basically had no effect on the NFL/PRG's political programme.

Err, what about Firebases CORAL and BALMORAL? What about Binh Bah? There were numerous examples of where the NLF and the PAVN did not make no effort against the ANZAC forces in South Vietnam. Xa Long Tan was the first bloody nose. There were others.
 
Compare the Australian experience to the general quality of the US experience. Compare the rate of incidence of the Australians to the rate of incidence of "Every other bastard other than the Koreans." Yes there were regular tests. They were almost "scientific" in their military engagement of the opposing force capcity. Now I'm not going to suggest that Korean or Thai or Australian forces were incompetent like the US or ARVN. What I am going to suggest is that they were not competent beyond a normal rate of retest for a force with strategic competence and capacity.
 
Compare the Australian experience to the general quality of the US experience. Compare the rate of incidence of the Australians to the rate of incidence of "Every other bastard other than the Koreans." Yes there were regular tests. They were almost "scientific" in their military engagement of the opposing force capcity. Now I'm not going to suggest that Korean or Thai or Australian forces were incompetent like the US or ARVN. What I am going to suggest is that they were not competent beyond a normal rate of retest for a force with strategic competence and capacity.

The Korean and/or Thai and/or US forces came with a cost to the war effort. Their tactics invariably harmed the war effort. It made it increasingly more difficult to win hearts and minds. The ANZACs paid particular attention to the concept of fighting the NLF in the political arena. They forced the NLF to basically go back underground over the length of the war. The other forces failed to do that. Essentially, for every test of those forces, the people came more and more to support the NLF. I wonder why?
 
The Australians adopted turned VC directly into their units. No waiting 4 to six months at a chieu hoi center. In indonesia the turn around was 24 hrs. They even financed a honeymoon for one of Giap's cousin's who rallied to the Rvn.
 
We were lucky. There was calls for the a bomb to be dropped in Dien Bien Phu.

The korean war was fought with ww2's tech. Perfected ww2 but still ww2. No guided munitions, no surgical strike. This was operation Downfall in effect.

Everything was different in late 60s and early 70s. Laser guided munitions were a thing, made surgical strikes possible. No need to bring in vulnerable bombers that could be shot down with the lost of a 5 men crew. Single seat fighter bombers was better.

That's why there's no fire bombing of Hanoi, the US human cost was too high. 25 B52s lost in a 10 days operation utilising 300 B52. That was not sustainable.

We were very, very lucky indeed.

Laser guided munitions' first started coming into use at the very end of the 1960s in Vietnam. It wasn't until the Gulf Wars with the advent of the microchip that guided bombs started becoming a central component in American bombing missions and having a major influence on the strategy.

The United States didn't go for an air campaign similar to the one it did against North Korea on North Vietnam mainly due to Johnson's personal conviction that one poorly placed bomb or anti-ship mine against North Vietnam would trigger China to lend a million troops the North and potentially even trigger Moscow to invade West Germany and launch its ICBMs at the US.

The United States did poorly use and one can argue overuse bombing raids mainly in the South where American commanders were given a free hand to call in air strikes. The military didn't have a free hand in raids in the North. The overuse of poorly discriminatory firepower against an insurgency actually helps it as long as the rebels are acting like an insurgency.
 
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He was THE US choice. There were others but they were not under US control, the most prominent was Vu Hong Khanh, leader of Vietnam Nationalists Party, but he was influenced by the RoC and that party got crushed both by the Communist and Diem. They were one of the first agitaters for revolutions too. Assassinated Bazin for example. Sad story for that lot.
Problem with the VNQDD was that its support base had been in the north. It had very little popularity or organizational strength in the south. Thus why Diem was able to so effectively marginalize them.

Yeah, Diem got the job pretty much because he's an mandarins from an old family, catholics and was well knewn in america catholics circle abroad (he met the Pope and JFK for example). He was always backed by the US and when the French asked the US for help after 1954, he was their man. He knew he was unpopular, so he relied on his family even more and turned a blind eye to their corruption.
On the subject of his popularity it might be worth noting that Dương Văn Minh admitted to having killed Diem for fear that he had enough support to make a come back.

The Buddhist was not thrilled with his actions in squashing the sects. They knew they'd be next. That tension cumulated in the self immolation of Thich Quang Duc in 1963 which was captured on camera and turned the US public against him and the JFK administration. He got killed because of that.
And yet it took 8 years for them to take any action against Diem? No, the idea that the Buddhist clergy had any solidarity with the sects is a post-facto retcon promoted by those of the Engaged Buddhism movement and coup leaders who were aware that evidence for Diem's persecution of non-Catholics was flimsy at best. So the destruction of France's proxy militias was conveniently reinterpreted as a violent crack down on non-Catholics.

There was no miscommunication. He actively oppressed the Buddhist.
There's really no evidence for this prior to the Buddhist Crisis.

He actively demanded the conversion to Catholics as advancement perquisites for officers and civil servants, actively sidelined those who did not convert.
Really now? How can this be when most of his cabinet (including his Prime Minister!) and most of his top generals were Buddhists? There was definitely a bias in favour of Catholics (and Confucians) but it was no hard roadblock the same way personal loyalty to Diem was.

His troops openly used chemicals to quell protests by monks led to a lot of deaths.
Only once the Engaged Buddhism movement made itself a threat to his regime. The actions of the despot desperately clinging to power, yes. Evidence of long standing religious persecution, not really.

The miscommunication is a myth by his Catholics supporters after he was killed.
No, his miscommunication surrounding the dispute over religious flags was definitely real.
 
Laser guided munitions' first started coming into use at the very end of the 1960s in Vietnam. It wasn't until the Gulf Wars with the advent of the microchip that guided bombs started becoming a central component in American bombing missions and having a major influence on the strategy.

The United States didn't go for an air campaign similar to the one it did against North Korea on North Vietnam mainly due to Johnson's personal conviction that one poorly placed bomb or anti-ship mine against North Vietnam would trigger China to lend a million troops the North and potentially even trigger Moscow to invade West Germany and launch its ICBMs at the US.

The United States did poorly use and one can argue overuse bombing raids mainly in the South where American commanders were given a free hand to call in air strikes. The military didn't have a free hand in raids in the North. The overuse of poorly discriminatory firepower against an insurgency actually helps it as long as the rebels are acting like an insurgency.

There are 2 phases of bombing in north Vietnam, operation Rolling Thunder under LBJ that was very restricted like you said and Operation Linebacker I and II under Nixon that was only stopped because the casualty to the B52 fleet was unacceptable.
 
@SealTheRealDeal,

About the VNQDD, they did have support by the native in the south, a lot of them was in the ARVN before being purged by Diem. The thing was VNQDD was not backed by the French or the US so that was why they were the first to go.

Of Diem's 18 men cabinet, only 8 was Buddhist in a country 90% was Buddhist. And in the army, while the top brass was mostly established before Diem and only 3 were catholics, the same could not be said for the field officers or colonels. Future RoV president Thieu was forced to convert to rise in the ranks. Diem was paraphrased by his officers to put Catholics in position of power as "only them can be trusted".

Diem and his family were devout Catholics, his brother rose to be the Archbishop of Hue. They abused their position and profiteered at the detriment of the lower classes, especially the rural poor, most of whom were Buddhist. The Catholic church in Diem's presidency became the largest private land owner in RoV, and many priest field their own personal army. Ngo Dinh Thuc, Diem's brother personally gave the order to shoot the protesters in the Phat Dan shooting, began the Buddhist crisis.

There was no miscommunication, his family was deep in that from the get go and he either complicit or incompetent and I don't think he was incompetent.
 
Were there any candidates that is competent enough to even govern South Vietnam besides Diệm ? One who won’t alienate the Buddhist majority? Can Trần Trọng Kim be a viable choice?
 
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marathag

Banned
that was only stopped because the casualty to the B52 fleet was unacceptable.
A changing in targeting halfway thru the bombings changed that, with SAM & Radar sites being allowed to be targeted, despite the risk that Soviet and W.Pact 'technicians'
could be killed

The other point was, that by Christmas, most of the target the US wanted hit, had been hit, and SAC had stopped micromanaging the B-52 flight paths and mission profiles
By the 29th, had run out of Northern targets, and the U-Tapao based B-52sw were back to doing ArcLights in the South.
TheNorth was nearly out of SA-2 missiles, and many of the Radars for them had been destroyed.

From the wiki
During Operation Linebacker II, a total of 741 B-52 sorties were dispatched to bomb North Vietnam; 729 completed their missions.[89] B-52s dropped a total of 15,237 tons of ordnance on 18 industrial and 14 military targets (including eight SAM sites) while fighter-bombers added another 5,000 tons of bombs to the tally.[89] Another 212 B-52 missions were flown within South Vietnam in support of ground operations during the campaign.[90] Ten B-52s were shot down over the North and five others were damaged and crashed in Laos or Thailand. Thirty-three B-52 crew members were killed or missing in action, another 33 became prisoners of war, and 26 more were rescued.[91]

Over 11 days, North Vietnamese air defenses fired 266 SA-2 missiles[92] downing—according to North Vietnam—34 B-52s and four F-111s.[6] While warding off the massive strike by U.S strategic, tactical and carrier aviation, the North Vietnamese missile air defense forces conducted over 180 engagements, two-thirds of which were against B-52s, fired 266 SA-2 missiles. However, to date, North Vietnamese claims of aircraft destroyed or shot down differ greatly from US official records. In Marshall Michel's 2002 book, The 11 Days of Christmas: America's Last Vietnam Battle, the author uses mission records to confirm that "15 B-52s were shot down...10 crashed 'on the spot' in North Vietnam and 5 were able to move out of the Hanoi area and into Laos or Thailand before they crashed".[93] North Vietnam claimed 36 aircraft destroyed (31 B-52s and 5 tactical aircraft) with the expenditure of 244 missiles against the B-52s and 22 missiles against tactical aircraft, or 7.9 missiles for every B-52 aircraft shot down, or 4.4 missiles for every tactical aircraft shot down. During the offensive, they initially overcame various types of interference and obstacles employed by the U.S aircraft to interrupt missile engagement.[94] But in the latter stages of the bombing campaign, due to a change in tactics, B-52 losses decreased significantly. By the last night of the campaign, no losses were reported. Overall, during the 11 days of Operation Linebacker, the B-52s flew 795 sorties with a loss rate of only 1.89 percent.[93]

The Air Force flew 769 additional sorties and 505 were flown by the Navy and Marine Corps in support of the bombers.[89] Twelve of these aircraft were lost on the missions (two F-111s, three F-4s, two A-7s, two A-6s, an EB-66, an HH-53 rescue helicopter and an RA-5C reconnaissance aircraft).[59] During these operations, ten American aviators were killed, eight captured, and 11 rescued.[95] Overall US Air Force losses included fifteen B-52s, two F-4s, two F-111s, one EB-66 and one HH-53 search-and-rescue helicopter. Navy losses included two A-7s, two A-6s, one RA-5, and one F-4. Seventeen of these losses were attributed to SA-2 missiles, three to daytime MiG attacks, three to antiaircraft artillery, and four to unknown causes.

1.89 percent B-52 loss rate
Schweinfurt–Regensburg was almost 16%
 
About the VNQDD, they did have support by the native in the south, a lot of them was in the ARVN before being purged by Diem. The thing was VNQDD was not backed by the French or the US so that was why they were the first to go.
Their support in the ARVN was mostly in the form of Northerners who made the journey south. What they had on the ground wasn't quite comparable to the Ngo's established network in the Central Highlands and urban areas of the South.

Of Diem's 18 men cabinet, only 8 was Buddhist in a country 90% was Buddhist.
Still quite a lot for an explicitly Catholic dictatorship.

And in the army, while the top brass was mostly established before Diem and only 3 were catholics, the same could not be said for the field officers or colonels. Future RoV president Thieu was forced to convert to rise in the ranks.
He already was a Lieutenant Colonel, and been sent to the US for additional training, prior to his conversion in 1958. Converting sped up his advancement by quite a lot, but he wasn't in a dead end prior to his conversion.

Diem was paraphrased by his officers to put Catholics in position of power as "only them can be trusted".
If I may ask, which officers were those?

Diem and his family were devout Catholics, his brother rose to be the Archbishop of Hue. They abused their position and profiteered at the detriment of the lower classes, especially the rural poor, most of whom were Buddhist. The Catholic church in Diem's presidency became the largest private land owner in RoV, and many priest field their own personal army. Ngo Dinh Thuc, Diem's brother personally gave the order to shoot the protesters in the Phat Dan shooting, began the Buddhist crisis.
You're conflating his brother's actions with those of Diem. Diem and his brother Can were both pissed at Thuc for that.

There was no miscommunication, his family was deep in that from the get go and he either complicit or incompetent and I don't think he was incompetent.
When it came to reigning in his family he was definitely flat out incompetent. Most obviously, his failure to put a muzzle on his sister-in-law, but also in that he was seemingly oblivious to the power struggle between Can and Thuc in the Central Highlands.
 
Far more ruthless.

In South Vietnam move the entire civilian population to Saigon and make the city a mega city. Draft the entire population into civil institutions of control like state daycares, schools, labor corps, military etc.

Make everything outside Saigon a free fire zone with kill on site. Keep 100K American troops in country, all volunteers, along with other nations like SK and perpeutually kill any NVA forces in the South (and keep Mega-City Saigon under control). No need for messy guerilla warfare since it's bog standard conventional killing.

Bomb North Vietnam into rubble to start. Bomb the dikes. Mine the harbors. And firebomb Hanoi like WW2 firebombing is back in vague on day one.

At some point North Vietnam will run out of troops to send south.
What the fuck
 
How should LBJ have approached Vietnam?

Any way that wasn't half-arsed: The US should either have got out, or invaded the North and cut the head off the beast. Unless it was early doors, say immediately after JFK was in the ground, anything else was probably not going to work.
 
Aw, c'mon man, this is Red Flood-style gonzo Discord political extremism dystopia porn.
  • Whereas the Moro slaying was praxic?
  • Whereas Baader-Meinhoff, or the more competent armed anarchist urbanites who never got caught, were embedded working class militia such as PLAF manoeuvre forces as of 1964?
  • Whereas the Symbianese Liberation Army doesn't sound like an unfortunate integration of a tiktok celebrity fantasy with a 4chanesque carnivale of fucked-upped-ness?

Did I need to mention bodies without organs more? Or the French military tradition of enjoying an orgy together after committing to engage in a coup d'etat? Or what the French did in Algeria, considered as part of metropolitan France?

The kind of outrage of the US shopping France's colonies off for them will get you a very unusual terrain amongst children of the bourgeoisie with red armbands on.

yours,
Sam R.
 
if the U.S. had decided to support the Vietminh during and after the WWII
Goodbye France as an ally...
The simple alternative with hindsight is to simply have US buy the colony off France for US$ in 1945+, they thus support European reconstruction a bit earlier than OTL and get to free Vietnam at the same time?

The French cant complain if they agree to a deal with a huge payout and the Vietnamese cant complain about being granted independence, you just need to cover US domestic support from the money involved but you sell that as redeveloping Europe against communism?
 
Far more ruthless.

In South Vietnam move the entire civilian population to Saigon and make the city a mega city. Draft the entire population into civil institutions of control like state daycares, schools, labor corps, military etc.

Make everything outside Saigon a free fire zone with kill on site. Keep 100K American troops in country, all volunteers, along with other nations like SK and perpeutually kill any NVA forces in the South (and keep Mega-City Saigon under control). No need for messy guerilla warfare since it's bog standard conventional killing.

Bomb North Vietnam into rubble to start. Bomb the dikes. Mine the harbors. And firebomb Hanoi like WW2 firebombing is back in vague on day one.

At some point North Vietnam will run out of troops to send south.


There's no way you can do all this to the population of South Vietnam with 100k troops, and if you try you will just drive the south into the arms of the north.

The Saigon you just crammed approx 15m people into a city that started the 50's with a population of 1.3m. and then wall it all up? What are they going to eat and drink?
 
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Deleted member 1487

Interesting thread I came across on reddit that would make an interesting POD. The basic summary is that ARVN was badly outgunned by the NVA/VC for much of the war as they were mostly issued surplus WW2 firearms, which given the average size of the ARVN soldier were too hard recoiling and heavy, and less than the average US WW2 equivalent sized unit had to boot. Meanwhile the NVA had increasingly modern and more weapons.

The POD would be that ARVN is instead issued AR-15s from 1963 on, as it was already in production and the first combat testing had been done by ARVN troops.
They wanted the weapon to be their standard issue rifle due to how much their troops liked it and it allowed them to outgun (at the time) the VC and NVA troops they came across (it wasn't until about '68 that the NVA was mass issued AK-47s).

Check out the link for the sources, which are quite interesting:

A particularly choice quote:
As Worthington grimly remembered: "An ARVN rifle company had even less firepower than one of our infantry companies during World War II." As a result, ARVN infantry often struggled when facing off against VC or NVA forces that could marshal more firepower.

Keith Nightingale, another advisor, recalled joining the 52nd ARVN Ranger Company as an advisor in 1967 and having a similar experience Although they were ARVN's elite, the Rangers were still relying on obsolescent small arms, which put them at disadvantage against the VC.

The 52nd was organized along standard U.S. Army lines with four rifle companies and a Headquarters Company. Each rifle company had approximately 80-90 personnel. The total battalion strength on the LZ the day of this action was approximately 450. The primary armaments were the antiquated M1 carbine, BAR, .30 Cal M1919 Light MG and M79 grenade launcher...
The VC force encountered was a “Main Force” element at full strength primarily populated with new soldiers and new equipment. Post operation sweeps showed that most corpses were teenagers with new uniforms, fresh haircuts, equipment and weapons. Most VC were armed with AK 47’s with new canvas magazine carriers and stick grenade belts. Additional weapons were .51 cal Heavy Machine Guns, RPG’s, RPK squad automatic weapons and 82mm mortars. These forces thoroughly outgunned their ARVN adversaries.
The arrival of two new M60 machine guns and a handful of M16s made a major difference in the 52nd's combat performance, says Nightingale:

I shall never forget the image over my right shoulder of one of those gunners at Suoi Long calmly working off 3 round bursts with the pipe in his mouth as if he were at a Ft Benning gunnery range. The gunner keyed on the sound of the VC commanders blowing whistles and on more than one occasion I heard the whistle abruptly ingested as the M60 rounds impacted. These two guns plus the very few M16’s in the battalion were to have a decisive early effect at Suoi Long. (Hiep and Tot’s bodyguards and myself as well as some other soldiers had M16’s. Months after the battle, we were told that at the initial contact, the VC commander believed we were a new regiment as he hadn’t heard Vietnamese with M16’s before-reportedly this caused him to be more cautious with us than he otherwise might have been).
Being outgunned in firefight after firefight wore down ARVN morale for understandable reasons.

When the Americans finally began issuing M16s in larger numbers in 1968, the effect on ARVN effectiveness and self-confidence was electric. Lociano explains:

In mid-1968, MACV commissioned a study to examine the M-16’s impact on RVN armed forces. The results were telling. Though at the time of the study only 72,441 M-16 rifles had been issued, the RVNAF units who received them improved substantially on the battlefield. The MACV Doctrine and Analysis Division determined that ARVN operational capability increased by roughly 69 percent, morale and esprit increased by nearly 61 percent and “overall maintenance and reliability of the M-16 show a 51 percent improvement over the previous mix of weapons.”
US advisors and South Vietnamese officers alike confirmed that the rifle had an immediate and substantial impact. Lieutenant Colonel Phạm Văn Sơn concluded that “with this new standard weapon, South Vietnamese troops not only attained much better individual firepower but seemed also to acquire a new fighting spirit that had been lacking with the obsolete M-1.”

And another relevant one:
 
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