World Mapping
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Let's say the CSA won its independence in 1862 or whenever. What's the fate of Hawaii? Does it still get annexed to the USA, or does it go British or Confederate?
Hawaii in a Confederate Victory Scenario
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My guess would be USA or Britain, really depends on how well the North takes a loss in the Civil War.
Confederates most likely wouldn't have any ports on the west coast to make it easy to get to Hawaii.
It depends on how the CSA wins but I think that if the British were seen as belligerent against the US than it might actually accelerate an American takeover of Hawaii since they would probably want a base in the Pacific instead stopping on British held islands like in OTL.
This. Even if the Confederates, for some reason, decided they wanted Hawaii, which they won't since it doesn't offer anything; and they have the capacity to launch overseas expeditions, which...eh; they still don't have any Pacific ports to take it, and have no hope of getting any.
One possibility, Hawaii could fall under British influence. Maybe not directly annexed, but definitely a closer relationship…
But there is still those American descendants in Hawaii, like the Big Five that controls the Sugar plantations. There still could be a possibility of a the Hawaiian monarchy being overthrown, but a Hawaiian Republic remaining independent.
Another option is Japan, which could eye the islands as well.
Also, definitely the Confederates will never gain influence or annex them without Pacific access. Only way if they filibuster their way into Central America and making a Canal, but that’s a whole stretch
But there is still those American descendants in Hawaii, like the Big Five that controls the Sugar plantations. There still could be a possibility of a the Hawaiian monarchy being overthrown, but a Hawaiian Republic remaining independent.
Another option is Japan, which could eye the islands as well.
Also, definitely the Confederates will never gain influence or annex them without Pacific access. Only way if they filibuster their way into Central America and making a Canal, but that’s a whole stretch
In my Cinco de Mayo TL I posit a Hawaii that enters into protectorate status with Britain, as very nearly could have happened OTL; barring a US takeover this is the next-likeliest course. British practice would have been to keep the royals with a Resident Commissioner to guide policy and then some kind of “Royal Hawaiian Company” running the economy, and the RN gets a choice base at “Pearl Harbour”
Hawaii was an independent republic in 1894. It would have more likely become an indpendent republic earlier. It forms its own navy and becomes independent joining with Samoa, Tuvalu, New Guinea, New Zealand, and Australia to form a Pacific Alliance against Japan and Indonesia. Shortly after the war, California secedes with the Washington State and Oregon who forming the Alliance of Northern States and aligns with the Pacific Alliance. Baja California splits off from Mexico and joins California.
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All of those Pacific areas are parts of Empires. They can't form an alliance between themselves, the mother country won't allow it. "Indonesia" doesn't even exist. Its part of the Dutch Empire. California's population is barely 300,000 after the war. They can't declare independence, and have no reason to. The secession movement there was put down by a grand total of 300 cavalry.
Ends up as part of the British system of dependent states, is maybe annexed, maybe not.
Crazy Boris
Banned
I’d guess a close alliance with Britain just short of protectorate status along the same lines as Tonga.
From 1843 to 1893 Hawaii was a monarchy. It became a republic in 1894 because of a capitalist revolution There is no reason for it to volunteer to be taken over by another country. Countries don't volunteer to be protectorates. Great Britain and France guaranteed Hawaii's independence in 1843. The United States also guaranteed its independence. Depending on diplomacy, it could expand to other islands forming a kind of Pacific Protectorate. It could become part of an expanded French Polynesia. I could imagine an expansion of the agreement between France and Britain for independence of certain islands.
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I typically answer these questions with the assumption that the UK is involved with the outcome of the civil war, not only because that's 9/10 of the realistic ways the south could have prevailed, but because it's more interesting as a timeline.
It depends on whether you subscribe to the view that the UK and US are simply going to patch up relations and carry on, or not. If they don't, and relations between those two powers are frosty for decades, then Hawaii becomes an objective for both sides and the result depends on who is able to manipulate events there to their advantage or show up with gunboats first and establish some kind of control directly.
It depends on whether you subscribe to the view that the UK and US are simply going to patch up relations and carry on, or not. If they don't, and relations between those two powers are frosty for decades, then Hawaii becomes an objective for both sides and the result depends on who is able to manipulate events there to their advantage or show up with gunboats first and establish some kind of control directly.
Too weak early. Too far away mid term. After 1940 or so Hawaii has either figured out how to be independent or has the US and the UK and Japan countering each other.
By 1862 the USA already was the dominate power in Hawaii. The USN was using Pearl Harbor for its Pacific squadron. The British had no interest in running the Islands and were only interested in protecting their investments there. The Confederates would never have a Pacific port, and the USA would keep them out. By the time Japan became a Pacific player the fate of Hawaii was already set.
Crazy Boris
Banned
IIRC, the flag was designed to be like that just because Kamehameha was given a union jack as a gift and just liked how it looked