“If it sounds too good to be true, it probably is.”
- Speaker of the House and Democratic nominee Mo Udall on Vice Presidential nominee Tom Eagleton
At the beginning of 1980, it seemed like things were shaping up to be a Democratic year. The Iranian Revolution and OAPEC’s oil embargo shifted the Middle East further out of the United States’ geopolitical sphere under the Republicans’ watch, and the ensuing Oil Crisis spiked domestic fuel prices and incited a market instability that finally killed the Bretton Woods System. In another large field, Democrats jockeyed to be the nominee to oppose President Jim Rhodes, with Speaker of the House Mo Udall leading the pack, and eventually winning the nomination. Unfortunately for the Democrats, however, the political scene had changed dramatically from the start of the year to the conclusions of both parties’ primaries by mid-August. Rhodes’ heavy energy subsidies and deregulation of the fossil fuel industry had been seemingly vindicated. The surplus petroleum purchased by the US government in the 1979 domestic oil glut had mitigated the worst of the Oil Crisis, and a Strategic Petroleum Reserve was formalized shortly thereafter [1]. Likewise, Rhodes had been able to handle the end of the Bretton Woods System by switching the US from a partial gold standard to a floating currency exchange, and had bandaged both crises by ramming through additional pork barrel legislation paid for by federal bonds.
Coming out of the Democratic Convention, the election would be difficult but not impossible for the Udall ticket.
Matters were made worse by the Eagleton dilemma.
Chosen as a seemingly ideal compromise candidate between the disparate Neoconservative, Liberal-New Left, and Evangelical Left factions of the Democratic Party, Senator Thomas Eagleton of Missouri had quickly and enthusiastically passed through the vetting and nominating process. What came as a revelation was that Eagleton had been diagnosed with depression and bipolar disorder in the past, and had previously used electroshock therapy to improve his mental well-being. A media circus quickly developed around the subject, with Udall having to fend off questions of his judgement selecting a running mate who could hypothetically be a mentally unstable President. Udall decided that the best course of action was to stand fast and show commitment; under the consideration that a clear majority of voters polled stated that Eagleton’s past treatments wouldn’t affect their vote, Udall concluded it would be more damaging to replace him than not to [2]. Udall was also able to benefit from media coverage focused on Paul Laxalt, the new Republican Vice Presidential nominee. Laxalt was a historic first in that he had actively run for Vice President through what existed of the Vice Presidential primary system. He was also the first new Republican Vice Presidential nominee in an incumbent election year since 1872 (most recently on the Democratic side, McCarthy had replaced John Connally with Edmund Muskie in 1972).
Vice Presidential nominee Tom Eagleton, seen here campaigning with former Senator George McGovern, was kept on Mo Udall's Democratic ticket, despite revelations that he had been treated for clinical depression in the past.
As for the campaign itself, it quickly developed into a referendum on guaranteed employment. Rhodes campaigned almost entirely on Jobs For America and his guaranteed employment proposals, and promised to stimulate the economy through continued public works projects and investments into the energy sector. As usual, Rhodes avoided specifics, but promised that he would be able to create a budget surplus in his second term by replacing the majority of social security spending and replacing it with the ostensibly much cheaper Jobs For America. Rhodes also called for small business grants to be issued in tandem with Jobs For America, to encourage the newly-employed to eventually start their own enterprises, and move from ‘public employment’ to ‘private employment.’ Taking his foreign policy cues word-for-word from Secretary of State Nixon’s memos and suggestions, Rhodes promised that the situation in the Middle East would soon be back in control through economic sanctions on the Islamic Socialist Republic of Iran, and through greater cooperation with regional US allies, such as Iraq’s Saddam Hussein. At Nixon’s suggestion, Rhodes also touted the opening of relations between the United States and the People’s Republic of China, and the new policy of triangular diplomacy.
Meanwhile Udall positioned himself as the protector of the working class and preserver of the post-Second World War economic consensus. Udall denounced Jobs For America as a half-baked scheme that would gut protections to America’s most vulnerable citizens without clearly laying out what the guaranteed jobs would entail, if their pay would be sufficient to support a family, and if the wages of Jobs For America would be able to keep up with the new phenomenon of stagflation. Accusing Rhodes of economic mismanagement and being the cause of stagflation, Udall promised to end stagflation by returning to the type of pre-Rhodes fiscal policy of the likes of that of McCarthy, Johnson, and Kennedy. Along with pointed attacks on Jobs For America, Udall also prominently displayed the detailed Democratic platform, and contrasted it with the Rhodesesquely vague platform of the Republicans, most noticeably campaigning on the implementation of single-payer healthcare. Ironically playing off of a fear of change while challenging an incumbent, Udall was making serious gains in the polls, and was further helped by what would come to be called the “Ohio Rant.”
While campaigning in his home state of Ohio in late September, Rhodes went off script in a speech that began as praise for Ohio, going into long detail on why Ohio’s tourist attractions were the best, and insulting Kentuckians with the implication that they were undesirables taking up room in south Ohio ski lodges. Rhodes also threw shade at the Teton mountain range of Wyoming and Idaho, and Yellowstone National Park in his address [3]. The Ohio Rant tanked Rhodes in the polls in Kentucky and caused a noticeable drop in the interior Western states, as well as a milder dip nationwide. The Rhodes campaign scrambled to recover from the gaffe, and did their best at damage control, with Rhodes delivering a formal apology that most considered insincere.
In an unscripted, off-the-cuff tangent in Toledo, Ohio, Jim Rhodes embarrassed himself with the infamous Ohio Rant. While well-received in Ohio, it hurt Rhodes nationwide, especially in Kentucky and Wyoming.
Moving in to October, Rhodes attempted to move past the Ohio Rant and undermine the traditionally Democratic union vote. Rhodes declared himself the best President the unions have ever had, with his brand of liberal corporatism and federal cooperation with industry leaders leading to an all-time low in labour disputes. Udall countered that correlation did not mean causation, and that the reason labour disputes had dropped was because most unions were unwilling to contest contracts with the federal government openly backing the employers. Despite Udall’s critiques, Rhodes saw success in the polls when it came to winning over union members. The union leadership, with the exception of Walter Reuther, had never forgiven Udall for his anti-union voting in the past. Many union members, who had largely shifted into the Neoconservative camp of the Democratic Party, were drawn to Rhodes’ style of maverick, work-based politics.
October also saw a Vice Presidential debate between Paul Laxalt and Tom Eagleton. Rhodes continued to refuse to debate, but was willing to put Laxalt forward to take advantage of his new face. The debate was generally considered a mud-throwing contest, with Laxalt trying to tie Eagleton to the disastrous second term of the McCarthy Administration (Eagleton was first elected to the Senate as a McCarthy supporter in 1968), while Eagleton tried to tie Laxalt to the extreme radical conservatism of Barry Goldwater and Ronald Reagan. On the issues, both candidates towed their party lines: Laxalt supported Jobs For America and stood by Rhodes (de facto Nixon’s) foreign policy, while Eagleton stood by the existing welfare state and denounced Rhodes’ foreign policy as inept and inattentive. On social issues, both candidates were in agreement on conservative positions; Laxalt and Eagleton were both skeptics of busing desegregation, and they were both pro-life, despite the fact that both of the Presidential candidates were quietly in favour of busing and were pro-choice.
Despite the busy October, the Ohio Rant continued to haunt Rhodes, with Udall bringing it up as much as possible on the campaign trail in the West and the Midwest. Nixon, offering advice to Rhodes, insisted that he couldn’t follow his usual strategy of ignoring the other candidate and campaigning on a rose garden strategy. With less than a month to the election, Rhodes gave Nixon his blessing to use his team of White House Gardeners - so-called because they were digging up dirt for the rose garden - to smear Udall [4]. Lead by Nixon’s State Department opposition researcher, Pat Buchanan, the Gardeners leaked to the press that Udall had been diagnosed with Parkinson’s Disease. Overnight, Udall’s slowly declining health became the centre of media attention, which compounded with the by-then nearly forgotten scandal of Eagleton’s depression.
Despite not having any public accidents on the campaign trail and being well in control of his faculties, Mo Udall's diagnosis with Parkinson's Disease became the main issue in the final days of the campaign, in an unwelcome October Surprise for the Democrats.
Forced on to the defensive for the last week of October, Udall vainly tried to tie his Parkinson’s to his support for single-payer healthcare, but voters, perhaps irrationally or perhaps not, became scared of the possibility of a physically disabled President being incapacitated in a crisis, only to be replaced by one with clinical depression.
With the October Surprise of Parkinson’s slumping Udall in the polls, it seemed the Rhodes had finally seized the initiative by election night, in one of the most unique elections in American history.
“I was the only governor in the history of the state of Ohio that has visited every museum, every cultural center, every state fair and everything we have, attractions in the state of Ohio, including the Giant and the Monster. I’m the only governor that has visited every ski lodge and every ski, and snowmobiles. I visit every place in the state of Ohio where there’s action. What we have in the way of parks and recreation and lodges: when you go to any other state, or the surrounding states or the Tetons, or any of the national lodges or anything like that - they’re all tool sheds! We’re the only place that they have an indoor swimming pool outdoors. We have more activity in some of our lodges than they have in Yellowstone National Park. We have the finest lodges in America. We have more recreation per square mile than any other state. So what we get is an abundance of people. Our trouble is, in the southern part of the state, people from Kentucky coming into our lodges, they like to see how a good one look likes.”
- President Jim Rhodes’ infamous Ohio Rant
[1] IOTL, the United States Strategic Petroleum Reserve was formed in 1975, after the first oil shock of 1973-1974, brought about by an OAPEC embargo against countries supporting Israel in the Yom Kippur War of 1973. ITTL, there was no Yom Kippur War, so the 1979 oil shock was the first of its kind, but stacked with the Iranian Revolution. Although the petroleum reserve was founded four years later, it wasn’t necessary sooner, and Rhodes’ policies have also worked to mitigate the crisis.
[2] IOTL, Tom Eagleton was the nominated running mate of George McGovern in the 1972 Presidential Election. Eagleton was asked by McGovern to step down, and was replaced on the ticket by Sargent Shriver.
[3] This is something that actually happened while Rhodes was Governor of Ohio in the 1980s. Naturally, there’s much more fallout to it on a national level. The whole quote at the end of the chapter is taken word for word, with the exception of putting his governorship in the past tense.
[4] This is play on Nixon’s infamous White House Plumbers, who got the name because their job was to stop information leaks.