Germany doesn't blink (an escalation of the Venuezala Crisis 1902/1903)

[naraic]

So if there was a German American war in 1902/1903 as an escalation of the Venuezala Crisis how does the war look.

The German fleet was superior but I don't feel it could overcome the Atlantic ocean.

German planning at the time was somewhat unrealistic and called for sailing towards the Caribbean, establishing a base in Puerto Rico or Cuba.

Fight and win a decisive engagement with the weaker American fleet (which had to maintain a Pacific presence dividing their forces) and exert German naval superiority against the American East Coast and landing troops near Boston to scare Germany into negotiating.

It's interesting to note that Germany and USA probably had the second and fourth biggest battlefleet in the world at the time. Second and third if you don't count the Russian ships trapped in the Black Fleet. In terms of cruisers their fleets were probably fifth and sixth in the world. In a fight between Germany and USA they would want to use their cruiser fleet heavily.

Generally German battleships were built with poor crew quarters and would be uncomfortable for crew in a long journey (they had nornal range despite this though).

Do we think that if Germany and USA stumbled into war in late 1902 or early 1903 Germany would follow their war plans or would they begin again and do something completely different?

 

[Finbarr the Fair]

Interesting potential POD.

I doubt Germany would have been so insane as to push things to war. The British Empire was wary of provoking the US and it was a stronger naval power. Given the potential for France to create trouble in Europe with Russian backing.

Still maybe an Anglo-German alliance could manage to challenge the US in its own backyard.

 

[naraic]

Interesting potential POD.

I doubt Germany would have been so insane as to push things to war. The British Empire was wary of provoking the US and it was a stronger naval power. Given the potential for France to create trouble in Europe with Russian backing.

Still maybe an Anglo-German alliance could manage to challenge the US in its own backyard.

Historically Britain was much more willing to accept international arbitration than Germany was. To be honest I used the words stumble into war purposefully because I feel it wouldn't be a purposeful decision from the German government but more an incident on the ground pushing them into war.

An Anglo German alliance operating against USA is somewhat more predictable (Britain and Germany blockade USA. The American fleet hides in port somewhere. German and British forces land in Canada to defend it and invade USA through Canada).

Im sure France and Russia would be delighted to see this war break out (Britain too) as it could carve the German and American fleets down.

The German and US navies were in this period comparable in size (German navy larger, USA building more) and I'd be really interested in an exploration fo what would happen.

 

[Tjakari]

Still maybe an Anglo-German alliance could manage to challenge the US in its own backyard.

If it can be done, it can be done. Between the two of them, that's more than enough to give the US a very bloody nose.

 

[kmmontandon]

An Anglo German alliance operating against USA is somewhat more predictable (Britain and Germany blockade USA. The American fleet hides in port somewhere. German and British forces land in Canada to defend it and invade USA through Canada).

The British have precisely zero reason to insanely form an alliance with Germany against the U.S., and quite a few reasons not to. Starting with not wanting to help Germany become more powerful, continuing through not wanting to lose their massive amount of trade with the U.S., and ending at not wanting to potentially lose quite a few valuable warships and thousands or tens of thousands of soldiers to gain ... what, exactly? A few more islands in the Caribbean? The enmity of the second largest economy in the world? A drained treasury combined with an ascendant Germany? Risking losses to France while the British were tied down fighting the U.S.? Driving Russia into a more formal alliance with France and the U.S.?

 

[RMcD94]

I believe the British had given up on the idea of a German alliance (if not hostility) after 1901.

In 1884, 1894 and 1896, Germany sided in conflicts with Britain's opponents, thus apparently bearing out the popular view that it was too often ready to take advantage of Britain's misfortunes. Yet a more widespread fear of a German threat did not develop at senior political levels until 1902. At bottom was the issue of whether British and German strategic interests were compatible. As the American naval theorist A.T. Mahan argued in 1902, to preserve its existence as a world power Britain must command the approaches to Germany. Germany's population was considerably greater than that of Britain and in 1900 its regular army was over twice the size. It was also a strong economic competitor. Yet, although a proposed commercial alliance with Germany effectively fizzled out in the spring and summer of 1901, German imperial ambitions were still relatively limited. The second German Navy Law of 1900 alerted Britain to potential naval rivalry with Germany, but in 1901 a complete breakdown in relations was not inevitable.

So if the POD is 1902 unless the USA does something crazy (possible) I don't see why the British would get involved.

How about the Philippines (and Cuba too, or the many recently occupied Banana republics)? Would Germany try to reignite the independence movement? There weren't that many Americans there to keep suppressing the locals.

Is it possible Colombia joins in?

 

[Pesterfield]

Would the U.S. have any interest in trying to take German Pacific colonies?

 

[naraic]

So if the POD is 1902 unless the USA does something crazy (possible) I don't see why the British would get involved.

How about the Philippines? Would Germany try to reignite the war? There weren't that many Americans there to keep suppressing the locals.

I started discussion on the basis of a German American war rather than a German/Anglo alliance vs America war for a reason. Any suggestion of an Anglo German cooperation would be a suggestion that the Anglo/German blockade of Venuezala would cause an incident. I prefer to keep focus on a German USA war.

Historically America sent a fleet to the region on exercise and suggested international arbitration (in the court of arbitration in the Hague). Germany said no Britain said yes. Tensions rose then Germany said fine arbitration.

Im sure Germany would love Philippine locals to rise up against the American distraction the small American army.

Would the U.S. have any interest in trying to take German Pacific colonies?

Well its one of the most neutral places for a confrontation. A confrontation on the American coast has a major home field advantage for the Americans. A confrontation in the North Sea has an obvious advantage for the Germans.

I suppose American forces on their west coast would be superior to the German forces in the Pacific. If America can't combine their fleets for whatever reason sailing at German Pacific colonies make sense.

If America can combine their fleets I presume they would want that force on the east coast in order to have a better chance in any decisive battle.

 

[marathag]

A confrontation in the North Sea has an obvious advantage for the Germans.

Other than their ships having terrible habitability compared to RN, let alone USN vessels?
Then we get into the that the Battleships the USN have, far outclass the Wittelsbach and Kaiser Frederich III

Oregon

K.F. III

More armor, and 9.4" vs 13" Only advantage Germans have is they are a few knots faster and more built

 

[CV12Hornet]

The Germans, of course, generally outnumber the Americans, 15 battleships to 12, 5 armored cruisers to 2, and about 17 2nd and 3rd-class protected cruisers to roughly 10 American.

Qualitatively, using the Jane's Fighting Ships 1905-1906 ratings gives an interesting result: American battleships tend to rate better than their German counterparts, likely because of the greater preponderance of heavy guns, but German cruisers generally rate equal or better than American, likely due to newness.

So the Germans cannot be comfortable with engaging the US Navy in their own back yard, while the Americans would be very nervous about cruiser war.

 

[naraic]

So in general the German battleships are weaker than American ones. Reviewing the ships I do agree.

So I feel the best German chance for a victorious decisive battle is if they can force one before the Americans can concentrate. They had an Atlantic fleet with most of their principle units but a significant portion was deployed on the west coast (I believe 3 battleships between Manilla and San Francisco). Remember this is before Panama.

So could Germany deploy in force and force a decisive before the American fleet can concentrate. 3 American Battleships sound like a small amount but its a significant portion of the fleet.

Or would Germany be likely to stay back and fight a cruiser war?

 

[James Ricker]

American Trade cannot be cut off because all trade will go through Canada , if the Germans try to interdict that they have just picked a fight with a Royal Navy.
The British Empire would then drive the Germans out of the Atlantic. Any German troops in the Americas would be in trouble

 

[Garrison]

Well I expect the Germans get a drubbing while the French discretely pop some Champagne corks. The British are likely to simply sit on their hands, lamenting the disruption to trade. One way or another Germany's colonies are gone and I suspect there will be a shift in the balance of power in Germany firmly in favour the Reichstag.

As far as the USA goes if any of the action takes place in their waters or on land somehow that's likely to destroy the sense that they are insulated from the rest of the world by the two oceans.

 

[Drizzt]

In the long run, loosing a colonial pissing contest, that they never stood a chance to win against the upstart Yanks might be just the lesson from the School of Hard Knocks, about the importance of savy diplomacy, picking your fights, etc that Germany needs.

 

[Spencersj345.346]

Welp with the Germans likely losing most if not all of their Pacific Colonies the USN's life when facing Japan just got a whole lot easier.

 

[Mad Missouri]

If there is war, where does Germany base its blockade out of? It doesn't have any bases close to North America.

 

[Coulsdon Eagle]

If there is war, where does Germany base its blockade out of? It doesn't have any bases close to North America.

IIRC Plan XIII first objective was to seize a base in the Caribbean. Given the Kaiser probably doesn't want to bring Britain or France into the war on the US side, that pretty much left Puerto Rico.

 

[fester]

IIRC Plan XIII first objective was to seize a base in the Caribbean. Given the Kaiser probably doesn't want to bring Britain or France into the war on the US side, that pretty much left Puerto Rico.

Okay, last I checked, Puerto Rico has no coal mines.... This entire scenario is asking to give a quartermaster a heart attack

 

[Mad Missouri]

IIRC Plan XIII first objective was to seize a base in the Caribbean. Given the Kaiser probably doesn't want to bring Britain or France into the war on the US side, that pretty much left Puerto Rico.

Puerto Rico isn't a good place to blockade New England or the mid-Atlantic ports from. Those should be the busiest eastern ports at the time.

 

[Mad Missouri]

Okay, last I checked, Puerto Rico has no coal mines.... This entire scenario is asking to give a quartermaster a heart attack

You don't really need mines. You just need land to store coal on, and an anchorage to load it from. Although, taking the island isn't the same and holding it. Especially since the Navy like Gitmo and a base at the time.