Germany doesn't blink (an escalation of the Venuezala Crisis 1902/1903)

marathag

Banned
If the French are willing to sell Artillery I could see the French QF 75mm field gun becoming the US army standard.
Th 3" M1902 was the first Domestic QF take.on the French 75mm, firing a 15 pound shell at 1700fps, so just a bit stronger and slower rate of fire, but 2500 pounds to the mle 1897 of 3400 pounds and up to 30rpm from its more advanced recoil system.
The M1902 was to replace the older 3.2" gun of the 1880s-90s, that had no recoil system and used black or brown powder at first, and converted to smokeless on 1897-- but there was only around 350 around at the turn of the Century.
 
Yeah, I have a hard time seeing how the Germans get out of any "victory" in a US-German war in good shape.

So let's fast forward to 1907. The RN has three Bellorphans under construction. The USN just launched USS South Carolina and USS Michigan. Four slightly improved ships have been ordered and another three ships are in the build plans for 1909 even as a significant number of drydocks and building slips are being expanded.

By 1911 the USN has sent at least one dreadnought squadron with accompanying light cruisers and destroyers to Portsmouth and Rosyth for a month of joint training for the past couple of years. A few US Army regiments have trained against British Army regiments in the Caribbean and the fortifications in Panama would require most of the British Atlantic and Meditarrean Fleets to beat into submission even as the canal is almost ready.

August 1, 1914 --- The USN has 18 dreadnoughts fully worked up and almost two dozen pre-dreadnoughts in reserve. On active duty are 40 cruisers and appropriate lighter ships. Notes are passed to all associated powers that the USN will enforce strict neutrality in the Western Hemisphere of any power that does not have a current territory in the Caribbrean (France and UK get the loop hole). Any foreign warship of powers that have no Caribbean responsibilities will be denied access to the Panama Canal if there is to be war. Don't like, let's compare battle fleets. The US Pacific Squadron sends half a dozen armored cruisers to wartime stations off California and three pre-dreadnoughts to Manila even as the squadron of Pacific Coast dreadnoughts (the oldest four dreadnoughts) take on coal to head to Panama.

August 15, 1914 --- Almost all German merchant ships are interned in US ports. US ships have begun to "observe" German merchant ships in S. American ports


November 1, 1914 -- US Army 1st Corps arrives at Bordeaux.
 
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Think you had a slight error with the qoute function.

I wonder how the US would react militarily after such a stalemate of a German/American War. With the US suffering some (mostly in the form of enemy commerce raiding) and with some slight territory in the Western hemisphere (Nantucket a handful of other small islands at least temporarily) and the US coast experiencing some slight raiding (shelling of isolated coastal towns and the like) I think it might be enough to break the US out of it's prolonged "General Pacific And General Atlantic will protect us no matter what" stupor. I wonder what reforms would be enacted post war in the US Army/Marine Corps and the USN.

At the very least probably much more extensive coastal fortification and light forces to protect coastal waters.
 

Driftless

Donor
Would it have been worthwhile for the British or French to let Germany and the US to bang away at each other for a while, draining their resources, before seeking to mediate a diplomatic solution? The economies of both Germany and the US were growing significantly and be a source of competition. Or, would the general and potentially massive disruption of international commerce likely to be seen as not worth the gain?
 
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I would imagine HMS Powerful & Terrible.

Big, fast ships with a decent but not overwhelming main battery of 2x1 9.2 inch guns.
Exactly those two. With a top speed of 22 knots and a range of 7000 nautical miles at 14 knots they're faster and longer-ranged than any American cruiser, while also having the firepower (12/16 QF 6" guns on top of the 9.2" guns) to tackle any German cruiser not named Furst Bismarck. And the Brits don't want them, they're too big and expensive to run.
 
Think you had a slight error with the qoute function.

I wonder how the US would react militarily after such a stalemate of a German/American War. With the US suffering some (mostly in the form of enemy commerce raiding) and with some slight territory in the Western hemisphere (Nantucket a handful of other small islands at least temporarily) and the US coast experiencing some slight raiding (shelling of isolated coastal towns and the like) I think it might be enough to break the US out of it's prolonged "General Pacific And General Atlantic will protect us no matter what" stupor. I wonder what reforms would be enacted post war in the US Army/Marine Corps and the USN.

At the very least probably much more extensive coastal fortification and light forces to protect coastal waters.
I'm still stuck on logistics. The High Seas Fleet in 1908-1910 had roughly a 4,000 miles at efficient speed/course cruising distance for the heavy ships. Bremerhaven-Boston is ~3,300 miles. So a German battle fleet arriving at Boston is either empty bunkers and can not maneuver at speed or they are dragging a long supply chain that is extremely vulnerable to interdiction. I am still perplexed at how how a German fleet (not a squadron, but an actual fleet) operates off the US East Coast for more than a day or two. And from there, I am scratching my head at how the Germans hold any territory.
 

marathag

Banned
With a top speed of 22 knots and a range of 7000 nautical miles at 14 knots they're faster and longer-ranged than any American cruiser,
The Armored Cruiser USS Brooklyn, only had 900 tons of coal in the bunkers vs 3000 on those two, and to move all that coal, had a crew of 894

Brooklyn had 561, while the new Battleship Illinois, had 536, and less than half the horsepower.
 
I'm still stuck on logistics. The High Seas Fleet in 1908-1910 had roughly a 4,000 miles at efficient speed/course cruising distance for the heavy ships. Bremerhaven-Boston is ~3,300 miles. So a German battle fleet arriving at Boston is either empty bunkers and can not maneuver at speed or they are dragging a long supply chain that is extremely vulnerable to interdiction. I am still perplexed at how how a German fleet (not a squadron, but an actual fleet) operates off the US East Coast for more than a day or two. And from there, I am scratching my head at how the Germans hold any territory.
Like I said really unrealistic. Nantucket is the only American location I can think of that's "relatively" within range, has a decent natural port, is completely unfortified, and would have at least minimal facilities that might keep the German force barely in the game. Nantucket is far enough away from the US mainland that the army would need the navy to lead the way. And if the Germans were simultaneously spoofing the Americans into thinking their coming somewhere else (though letting loose cruisers and AMCs on American shipping) they might just barely (albeit not very realistically) take the island and put up at least some fortifications.

It'll be a siege from day one and an even more herculean task to build up the facilities needed and ship in the coal, spare parts, food, and munitions the German fleet would need. It'll be bare bones in the extreme. I figure they'll be more or less stuck their (except for the cruisers and AMC's for a while at least). Their best bet would be to protect the heavy units and present a fleet in being while letting cruisers and AMC's loose on American shipping. Maybe just maybe they could slightly supplement whatever they manage to send to Nantucket with captured American merchantmen stores. Though that'll be a trickle after a while.

All in all pretty unrealistic and even at absolute best we're looking at a bloody stalemate where the Germans gain little in the resulting peace except for a very very pissed off and much more militaristic US that's pro Entente (or a member of the Entente) and wants a pound of German flesh.
 
Coal bags everywhere, like with the doomed Russian relief effort to Port Arthur

Pretty much. This is the most realistic option. The German flotilla might barely make it to American waters but when factoring in the coastal nature of German heavies, the complete lack of nearby basing, the complete lack of the sort of long range logistical service needed to supply the fleet in the long run, the American's various pluses and the lack of any German friendly neutral willing to illicitly help out (maybe Denmark maybe?) we're looking at what happened to the Second Russian Pacific fleet.
 
Coal bags everywhere, like with the doomed Russian relief effort to Port Arthur
Okay, so that gets the pre-dreadnought HSF steaming off of Boston for 3 days before having to turn around and re-coal somewhere. Closest protected German port is 3300 miles away. Maybe seizing Block Island or Nantucket and having a few dozen colliers being escorted by most of the battle fleet to where the warships are either needed to escort the empties back to Bremerhaven or US cruisers have a field day on attrition warfare and some smart US Navy Ensign learns all about DIY mine warfare.
 

Coulsdon Eagle

Monthly Donor
Interesting... just read the latest Osprey - US Navy Battleships 1895-1908 which covers the "Great White Fleet." In the summer of 1908, when the GWF was on the other side of the world crossing the Pacific and then buzzing around between Australia, the Philippines, Japan & China, the Germans "unexpectedly cruised 16 battleships in the Atlantic." If they ever wanted to seize a base in the Caribbean then that was possibly the only time it was possible after 1898.

Coal - lots & lots of colliers. Of course, escorting these convoys across the Atlantic would be a nightmare, especially the troop transports, which I assume would comprise the great liners of the Hamburg-Amerika Line. The German cruisers would have a hell of a time keeping the few US cruisers away.

Question - what was the most insane plan dreamt up in Berlin? Plan XIII or Seelowe?
 
Looking at policies from the Russo Japanese war you can see that neutrality meant different things to different countries.

Spain and Denmark both acted in accordance with domestic law on neutrality in allowing the Russian fleet to coal on their way to the far east. A Spanish ambassador upon hearing Japanese protested invited the Japanese fleet to coal in Spain on their way to invade the Baltic. They would not allow the same ships to repeatedly coal.

British neutrality laws were based on a bilateral agreement between themselves and USA. The Treaty of Washington (1871). It forbids either party from allowing a belligerent to use their ports while at war with the other.

If they were planning to go for a base in the Caribbean I guess it would be Germany to Canaries to Danish Virgin Islands to wherever they planned to seize. I have massive doubts on the viability of this.

I guess raiders could coal once in Greenland crossing the Atlantic and rely on seizing coal from US merchant men. Of course the more successful they are the less coal they could seize as us merchantment would retreat to port forcing them back to coal.

If the USA are trying to act offensively the restrictions would apply. I guess that this is very much a war where neither can do much practically against the other.

Would the most likely option be to abandon plans and keep the battle fleets at home commerce war for a few months before making peace? Probably basing a chunk of the German cruiser fleet in the German Pacific colonies.
 
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Yeah, I have a hard time seeing how the Germans get out of any "victory" in a US-German war in good shape.

So let's fast forward to 1907. The RN has three Bellorphans under construction. The USN just launched USS South Carolina and USS Michigan. Four slightly improved ships have been ordered and another three ships are in the build plans for 1909 even as a significant number of drydocks and building slips are being expanded.

By 1911 the USN has sent at least one dreadnought squadron with accompanying light cruisers and destroyers to Portsmouth and Rosyth for a month of joint training for the past couple of years. A few US Army regiments have trained against British Army regiments in the Caribbean and the fortifications in Panama would require most of the British Atlantic and Meditarrean Fleets to beat into submission even as the canal is almost ready.

August 1, 1914 --- The USN has 18 dreadnoughts fully worked up and almost two dozen pre-dreadnoughts in reserve. On active duty are 40 cruisers and appropriate lighter ships. Notes are passed to all associated powers that the USN will enforce strict neutrality in the Western Hemisphere of any power that does not have a current territory in the Caribbrean (France and UK get the loop hole). Any foreign warship of powers that have no Caribbean responsibilities will be denied access to the Panama Canal if there is to be war. Don't like, let's compare battle fleets. The US Pacific Squadron sends half a dozen armored cruisers to wartime stations off California and three pre-dreadnoughts to Manila even as the squadron of Pacific Coast dreadnoughts (the oldest four dreadnoughts) take on coal to head to Panama.

August 15, 1914 --- Almost all German merchant ships are interned in US ports. US ships have begun to "observe" German merchant ships in S. American ports


November 1, 1914 -- US Army 1st Corps arrives at Bordeaux.
No offense, but your post probably should be reported as Butterfly Genocide.
 

Garrison

Donor
Would it have been worthwhile for the British or French to let Germany and the US to bang away at each other for a while, draining their resources, before seeking to mediate a diplomatic solution? The economies of both Germany and the US were growing significantly and be a source of competition. Or, would the general and potentially massive disruption of international commerce likely to be seen as not worth the gain?
The British are coming to terms with the USA's rising power in this period and the Atlantic is still seen as a wonderful buffer. Germany on the other hand is seen as belligerent and a threat to the balance of power in Europe that Britain wants to maintain. The British will maintain the kind of neutrality that see German ships shadowed across the North Sea and news about such movements being quietly passed to the US Embassy in London.
 
Puerto Rico isn't a good place to blockade New England or the mid-Atlantic ports from. Those should be the busiest eastern ports at the time.
If somehow they manage to do it everything can just go through Halifax. The Canadians wouldn't mind in the British would not mind selling arms to the Americans
 
Th 3" M1902 was the first Domestic QF take.on the French 75mm, firing a 15 pound shell at 1700fps, so just a bit stronger and slower rate of fire, but 2500 pounds to the mle 1897 of 3400 pounds and up to 30rpm from its more advanced recoil system.
The M1902 was to replace the older 3.2" gun of the 1880s-90s, that had no recoil system and used black or brown powder at first, and converted to smokeless on 1897-- but there was only around 350 around at the turn of the Century.

At the time of this OP the US had a whole system of domestics QF guns under-development.

  • M1902/1905 3 inch gun, range 8500 yards
  • M1908/M1915 3.8 inch howitzer, range 6338 yards
  • M1908 4.7 inch howitzer, range 7000 yards
  • M1908 6 inch howitzer, range 9000 yards
  • M1908 4.7 inch gun, range 9,000 yards, with tail dug in 12,000 yards.
  • M1903/1905 5 inch gun, range 16,000 yards, weight 12 tons.
If its a long war the US can built a modern artillery arm without friendly European involvement.
 
Looking at policies from the Russo Japanese war you can see that neutrality meant different things to different countries.

Spain and Denmark both acted in accordance with domestic law on neutrality in allowing the Russian fleet to coal on their way to the far east. A Spanish ambassador upon hearing Japanese protested invited the Japanese fleet to coal in Spain on their way to invade the Baltic. They would not allow the same ships to repeatedly coal.

British neutrality laws were based on a bilateral agreement between themselves and USA. The Treaty of Washington (1871). It forbids either party from allowing a belligerent to use their ports while at war with the other.

If they were planning to go for a base in the Caribbean I guess it would be Germany to Canaries to Danish Virgin Islands to wherever they planned to seize. I have massive doubts on the viability of this.

I guess raiders could coal once in Greenland crossing the Atlantic and rely on seizing coal from US merchant men. Of course the more successful they are the less coal they could seize as us merchantment would retreat to port forcing them back to coal.

If the USA are trying to act offensively the restrictions would apply. I guess that this is very much a war where neither can do much practically against the other.

Would the most likely option be to abandon plans and keep the battle fleets at home commerce war for a few months before making peace? Probably basing a chunk of the German cruiser fleet in the German Pacific colonies.

I would agree that German "Success" (success being the ultimately pointless stalemate with Germany taking Nantucket and then doing little more then raiding trade) more or less requires them having full use of Danish colonial bases. They could use the minimal facilities in Iceland and Greenland (and theoretically the Danish Virgin Islands) but I'm pretty sure news that the Danes are letting the Germans have full use of the coaling facilities in Iceland and Greenland will probably be enough to get the US to seize the Danish Virgin Islands. I don't think there's much the Danes can do about their Caribbean colonies. Their small, poorly unpopulated, and I believe almost totally undefended with no modern fortifications and probably less then a infantry company in the entire colony. The seizure would probably be something like the US occupation of Guam. Namely a single warship shows up then fires off a few rounds followed by a small armed landing party. The Danish governor surrenders the chain after that.

Still doesn't help the Germans win ultimately. They probably end up in the same "Take Nantucket and raid US shipping but accomplish little else with more or less Status Qou Antebellum" best case scenario.

Only in this version the US assuredly annexes the Danish Virgin Islands and probably forces the purchase of Greenland and perhaps Iceland. Greenland and the Virgin Islands end up US territories while Iceland might be lucky enough to get a protectorateship where they at least control internal affairs.

So really the Danes get forced to help the Germans with their facilities (which are extremely minimal at the time) and lose what's left of their empire as a result in the peace.
 
I would agree that German "Success" (success being the ultimately pointless stalemate with Germany taking Nantucket

The Germans have virtually zero chance of even taking Nantucket. Give the piss-poor track record of even British amphibious operations in this era (while operating at short range with maritime supremacy), the maritime-novice Germans are going to be laughably bad at trying to land troops four thousand miles from friendly shores, in the middle of the most populated & protected stretch of the American coast, while lacking in close-in escorts.
 
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