Germany doesn't blink (an escalation of the Venuezala Crisis 1902/1903)

[naraic]

The Germans have virtually zero chance of even taking Nantucket. Give the piss-poor track record of even British amphibious operations in this era (while operating at short range with maritime supremacy), the maritime-novice Germans are going to be laughably bad at trying to land troops four thousand miles from friendly shores, in the middle of the most populated & protected stretch of the American coast, while lacking in close-in escorts.

Given that historically the Germans had identified Culebra as a staging point to be seized and not Nantucket in their planning I guess the Germans identified the same problems you did.

Namely that it's too close to American land. Even if you could use it as a base I'm certain you would face night raids by torpedo boats (or improvised vessels carrying explosives) operating from Boston somewhere.

Im not sure the Germans could carry off Culebra but its a more sensible option than Nantucket imo.

 

[Father Maryland]

Given that historically the Germans had identified Culebra as a staging point to be seized and not Nantucket in their planning I guess the Germans identified the same problems you did.

Namely that it's too close to American land. Even if you could use it as a base I'm certain you would face night raids by torpedo boats (or improvised vessels carrying explosives) operating from Boston somewhere.

Im not sure the Germans could carry off Culebra but its a more sensible option than Nantucket imo.

You're right that the Nantucket route is inherently dangerous and has a lot of risks and dangers. But utilizing Danish facilities in Iceland and Greenland and then striking at (and hoping to seize before the Americans can fortify it) Nantucket seems logistically a lot easier then seizing the proposed Puerto Rican base. As far as I can see the closest possible coaling facility the Germans could use to Puerto Rico would be the Spanish facilities in the Canaries or the Portuguese facilities in the Azores. The French and British facilities in the Carribbean (and the British position at Bermuda and elsewhere in the Atlantic) are almost definitely closed to the Germans. Theoretically the Germans could use facilities in a friendly Latin American port (though they still have to transit all the way from the Azores to Latin America without a single coaling facility in between) but I find that doubtful. The various Latin American Republics might not like the US (and many of their leadership would hate the US) but arguably their more likely to be more afraid of the US then they are of Germany. The US is a lot closer. Sort of like how the Germans might be able to intimidate the Danes into using their colonial facilities because Germany is much much closer to Denmark then the US is to Denmark.

The Germany>Iceland>Greenland> Nantucket route logistically seems a lot easier. Though still pretty hard because the Danish facilities in both of their North Atlantic possessions are extremely limited. And Germany's battle line is almost totally designed for more coastal warfare. I don't think they'll fair well in North Atlantic winter storms. And obviously Germany has very little actual long range logistical capability at the time. Nantucket at the time was also totally undefended to my knowledge. I'm not sure they even had so much as a National Guard armory (and the NG was reforming greatly at the time but still wasn't great). Other then police forces I'm not sure their would be any armed American groups in Nantucket at the time. If the Germans are really lucky they can capture it before the US fortifies it. The US army was at the time pretty limited so I'm not sure if they would detail any large force for Nantucket at the time. I believe the total strength of the Regular Army of the time was about 76K men and the vast majority would be fighting in the Philippines or still scattered in various small Western forts. Nantucket also offers a decent harbor (though nowhere near as important as it was a few decades before) and has some minimal facilities and coal stockpiles.

That's about the best the Germans can do. If their smart they'll fortify the island thoroughly (and keep that dribble of supplies coming in) and keep whatever battleships they have as a fleet in being near or in the Islands harbor with the harbor thoroughly covered by mines and coastal artillery. Then they use their cruisers (and AMCs that they raise) to raid US shipping as hard as possible even potentially raiding very isolated small coastal towns in the Northeast (send a few shells into downtown maybe dynamite some vaguely war related targets). Those cruisers and AMC's will be making the most effective contribution the Germans can make.

Of course the US will be similarly raiding German shipping. And the Germans are still in a very vulnerable position.

I would say the Danish Virgin Islands get seized early.

 

[CV12Hornet]

The Germany>Iceland>Greenland> Nantucket route logistically seems a lot easier. Though still pretty hard because the Danish facilities in both of their North Atlantic possessions are extremely limited. And Germany's battle line is almost totally designed for more coastal warfare. I don't think they'll fair well in North Atlantic winter storms. And obviously Germany has very little actual long range logistical capability at the time. Nantucket at the time was also totally undefended to my knowledge. I'm not sure they even had so much as a National Guard armory (and the NG was reforming greatly at the time but still wasn't great). Other then police forces I'm not sure their would be any armed American groups in Nantucket at the time. If the Germans are really lucky they can capture it before the US fortifies it. The US army was at the time pretty limited so I'm not sure if they would detail any large force for Nantucket at the time. I believe the total strength of the Regular Army of the time was about 76K men and the vast majority would be fighting in the Philippines or still scattered in various small Western forts. Nantucket also offers a decent harbor (though nowhere near as important as it was a few decades before) and has some minimal facilities and coal stockpiles.

You'd be surprised. The North Sea isn't exactly calm and the Germans regarded their predreadnoughts as good sea boats, if wet on the bows. And I can't disagree, all three of the battleship classes the Germans are running in this era have good freeboard and make an effort to mount their 15cm guns high up.

 

[Cymry-Korean]

The Germans have virtually zero chance of even taking Nantucket. Give the piss-poor track record of even British amphibious operations in this era (while operating at short range with maritime supremacy), the maritime-novice Germans are going to be laughably bad at trying to land troops four thousand miles from friendly shores, in the middle of the most populated & protected stretch of the American coast, while lacking in close-in escorts.

Would this have been apparent to the German admiralty? I suppose what I'm saying is would they vigorously oppose a war on these grounds?

 

[marathag]

You'd be surprised. The North Sea isn't exactly calm and the Germans regarded their predreadnoughts as good sea boats, if wet on the bows.

North Atlantic is no picnic either.
But the German ships didn't stay at sea for long periods.
The US did, with the 'Great White Fleet'

 

[ranoncles]

Wars are seldom fought to occupy the opponent. It is to secure whatever was worth fighting for. In this case, it seems as if Germany wanted certain trade debts to be paid without international arbitration by Venezuela. Not to colonise the entire country or puppet it.

Venezuelan debt is not something the American citizens are going to enthusiastically go to war over and also not something the Germans are willing to fight the USA over, as was the historical situation. Germany (like sainted Britain) just wanted its trade debts paid off. So if Germany does make it a sticking point, why is that immediately escalated to full out war between the USA and Germany?

Just because Germany made plans in case of war didn’t mean they were planning a war or fight it according to the plan. It just means they had thought about it in case it ever became necessary and would have basic plans ready to go. It is something each country with a general staff worth its name did.

The practical point is that Germany can’t operate a fleet close to the USA and the USA can’t operate a fleet near Germany. Both lack the right ships and both lack bases without other countries violating neutrality.

So what can they do? Commerce warfare? Raid each other’s merchant fleets? Or perhaps harm each other’s trade…?

The latter seems the most likely. For starters, both nations can halt the import/export with each other. I don’t have the figures but it would be interesting to know how much each nation was mutually importing/exporting. If that (or the threat of that) didn’t get the USA to back down over this, the USA can consider a blockade of those parts of South America it can enforce while Germany might do a similar blockade of US goods to European countries. This is all within the international law at the time and something Britain would have to support as they were enthusiastic supporters of blockades in general.

This would be a low casualty-high financial cost stand-off which I think would cost the US more than it would cost Germany. Considering the US’s reluctance to get involved in international issues, I just don’t see the USA having the political will to build a huge fleet to fight Germany over Venezuela’s debts nor Venezuela getting a lot of international goodwill for not paying its creditors.

 

[naraic]

That's a very good point. When writing the op I was assuming stumbling into war and an "incident" over the blockade of Venuezala sparking a war.

Maybe a game of chicken between elements of the US fleet and the German blockading ships and suddenly an American captain opens fire on a German ship or vice versa and we have war.

If we have the limited war you suggest the French definition of neutrality as set out in 1870 would be very interesting if still in force. As explained by the French ambassador to Japan. Neutrality is something precious that must be enforced and defended with the threat of war.

 

[marathag]

This is all within the international law at the time and something Britain would have to support as they were enthusiastic supporters of blockades in general.

The USA (in)famously did not sign the Declaration of Paris that outlawed Privateers. This will hurt the German Merchant Marine.
For the legalese of an actual Blockade, must be able to demonstrate that all traffic can be interdicted, or it's not legally a blockade. This was done to prevent 'paper' blockades.

 

[Father Maryland]

The USA (in)famously did not sign the Declaration of Paris that outlawed Privateers. This will hurt the German Merchant Marine.
For the legalese of an actual Blockade, must be able to demonstrate that all traffic can be interdicted, or it's not legally a blockade. This was done to prevent 'paper' blockades.

Ehh odds are that the US declares it's commerce raiders AMCs and nominally gives the captain and crew Naval Reservist commissions for protection.

Both nations probably use a bunch of AMCs to fuck with each other trade.

 

[Butchpfd]

What do you know? There is a Wiki Page on this topic:

Imperial German plans for the invasion of the United States - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

.

I would particularly note the following two paragraphs:
"Büchsel carefully noted that a condition for success in the German invasion of America was the absence of a major conflict in Europe. Another condition was a poor state of American preparedness. Both of these conditions were eroding at the time of Büchsel's authorship of the third plan. The US had been aroused, filled with a new martial spirit after its victory over Spain in 1898.[10] America had immediately begun building battleships, and the balance of sea power was shifting away from the German advantage reported by von Diederichs. The British Royal Navy, the strongest navy in the world, was expanding further, and other countries were planning very heavy dreadnought-type battleships. This put extra pressure on the German Navy which never reached a position of parity in the Anglo-German naval arms race nor did it expand enough to satisfy the warship and troopship numbers specified by von Mantey and then by Büchsel in the various US invasion plans.

The Venezuela Crisis of 1902–1903 showed the world that the US was willing to use its naval strength to force an American viewpoint in world politics; the crisis established President Theodore Roosevelt's Roosevelt Corollary to the Monroe Doctrine, setting a precedent for US intervention in South American–European affairs. In April 1904, the balance of power was seriously shifted in Europe with the signing of the Entente Cordiale by Britain and France. This improved diplomatic relationship between the two countries allowed French and British military forces to be shifted elsewhere, usually to the detriment of Wilhelm II's hope for a Kolonialreich—an empire of German influence much like the British Empire and the French colonial empire. Tsar Nicholas II of Russia refused to form a military alliance with Germany so the Kaiser determined that he should focus on strengthening Germany for a possible European conflict rather than an overseas invasion. The US invasion plans were shelved in 1906.[3]"

The USN had 15 Pre Dreadnaught Battleships available by May 1906 and another 5 by Spring 1907 all of which could have been pushed to completion faster. Thi sis the build up to the Great White Fleet. Also the design drawings for the USN's 1st Dreadnaught USS South Carolina were done and long lead orders begun for the USS South Carolina, lai ddown in 1906, the USN's first class of Dreadnaught.

 

[Sarthak]

The USA (in)famously did not sign the Declaration of Paris that outlawed Privateers. This will hurt the German Merchant Marine.
For the legalese of an actual Blockade, must be able to demonstrate that all traffic can be interdicted, or it's not legally a blockade. This was done to prevent 'paper' blockades.

You know using privateers in the 20th century is your first picture perfect way of making every single naval power in the world hostile to you. No sane American decision maker would take that move in the 20th century.

 

[Butchpfd]

Like I said really unrealistic. Nantucket is the only American location I can think of that's "relatively" within range, has a decent natural port, is completely unfortified, and would have at least minimal facilities that might keep the German force barely in the game. Nantucket is far enough away from the US mainland that the army would need the navy to lead the way. And if the Germans were simultaneously spoofing the Americans into thinking their coming somewhere else (though letting loose cruisers and AMCs on American shipping) they might just barely (albeit not very realistically) take the island and put up at least some fortifications.

It'll be a siege from day one and an even more herculean task to build up the facilities needed and ship in the coal, spare parts, food, and munitions the German fleet would need. It'll be bare bones in the extreme. I figure they'll be more or less stuck their (except for the cruisers and AMC's for a while at least). Their best bet would be to protect the heavy units and present a fleet in being while letting cruisers and AMC's loose on American shipping. Maybe just maybe they could slightly supplement whatever they manage to send to Nantucket with captured American merchantmen stores. Though that'll be a trickle after a while.

All in all pretty unrealistic and even at absolute best we're looking at a bloody stalemate where the Germans gain little in the resulting peace except for a very very pissed off and much more militaristic US that's pro Entente (or a member of the Entente) and wants a pound of German flesh.

USN torpedo boats, and fast minelayers to keep the waters around Nantuckett unsafe. Still how much of the German Merchant fleet would have to be committed to to supply their Navy trans-Atlantic. All coal must come from Germany, and be convoyed. there goes the German difference in cruisers, and AMC cannot carry full loads of cargo or personnel

 

[marathag]

You know using privateers in the 20th century is your first picture perfect way of making every single naval power in the world hostile to you. No sane American decision maker would take that move in the 20th century.

When they are taking German flagged ships as prizes, instead of, oh, I don't know, just sinking them? why are other powers hostile?
They weren't in the 1860s when the Confederates did it to Union shipping, and the French and British had no problems with it.
Britain on had some regrets for selling the Confederates 80% ready warships later.
But not during the conflict.

 

[Father Maryland]

You know using privateers in the 20th century is your first picture perfect way of making every single naval power in the world hostile to you. No sane American decision maker would take that move in the 20th century.

Hence calling them AMC's and giving the crew and officers commissions as USN Reservists.

All perfectly legal at the time.

 

[Tibi088]

The problem is even if there is an incident I think it will be cleared up - look at OTL doggerbank incident which still didnt lead to war. This is not a war worth fighting for either side really. The british also dont want a war I think so they will help sorting out the mess.

 

[Spencersj345.346]

The problem is even if there is an incident I think it will be cleared up - look at OTL doggerbank incident which still didnt lead to war. This is not a war worth fighting for either side really. The british also dont want a war I think so they will help sorting out the mess.

Dogger Bank was a minor incident all things considered, an actual shooting engagement between warships isn't.

 

[Gannt the chartist]

A couple of things.

This is actually a push as the German position is dependent on the British position which is about getting paid and its about Venezuela not the US,

If Germany is serious about opposing the US in the colonial sphere then post 1898 its Navy is built differently its not a risk fleet for European waters its a blue water navy out to smash the USN anywhere any time.

But lets say this becomes a last minute issue. As you have not prepared for a war of aggression against the US dictating peace in the White House ( and neither is the US in any position to march into Potsdam) no point in fighting that war.

Instead go all Napoleon the Little on Venezuela and ship a large force say 5,000 men and take La Guaria with a follow on force to a reinforced division plus extra artillery and shore defences ( torpedo boats, mines, guns). Install Caudillo of your choice, sign unequal treaty giving possession of desired naval base and total economic domination of the country in exchange for efficient rule, schools, hospitals and no yanqui. Conscript local troops to bolster defences.

AMC with reserve officers are not privateers btw they are regular warships just not very fit for purpose. A privateer would be privately commissioned with officers appointed by the owners, a reserve commission is meaningless as they are unpaid except by the loot they gain from seizing merchants which incentivizes them to seize merchants, though the London Papers would probably not stand for hanging them often.

It would make more sense for patriotic people to buy a warship by popular subscription.

Practically though of very little use. At best everyone else will treat them as warships, with neutrality rules and coaling issues on station and if they ever had the misfortune to run into a real German warship dead. In fact running into a German AMC , or armed merchantman is likely to wreck both. Gazelle class could wreak havoc with US trade to Europe though.

So let us suppose that Germany does not conveniently launch an unwinnable war against the main force of the USA but rather grabs land for the Kolonialreich. In a sudden move ( lets call it Weser Exercise) that results in a the establishment of an enclave - concession - in Venezuela protected by a reinforced Brigade with 17th Heavy Coast Mortar Bn. and Schutzdivisions Bolivar and Ehinger also busy working up to a nice little army for the Bolivarian and Hanseatic Commonwealth of Venezuela.

Now Teddy boy we have a naval base coaling station and fortification on the American Continent what you gonna do about it?

 

[Spencersj345.346]

Well for one thing in a such a scenario Congress will open up the purse strings, AKA kiss the USN only procuring 2 capital ships and not much else per year and the Army being tiny goodbye which ultimately is a bad thing for the Germans geopolitically.

 

[Gannt the chartist]

Well for one thing in a such a scenario Congress will open up the purse strings, AKA kiss the USN only procuring 2 capital ships and not much else per year and the Army being tiny goodbye which ultimately is a bad thing for the Germans geopolitically.

Teddy would certainly ask them to. It changes politics in the US, and not to Germany's advantage. Dreadnought is coming in 1904 so both the US and Germans fleets are reset I cant see the Germans winning a naval race with the UK and US or even trying. But it does not get them out of Venezuela and it tests the Monroe Doctrine to breaking point, not this time but next.

 

[Spencersj345.346]

Teddy would certainly ask them to. It changes politics in the US, and not to Germany's advantage. Dreadnought is coming in 1904 so both the US and Germans fleets are reset I cant see the Germans winning a naval race with the UK and US or even trying. But it does not get them out of Venezuela and it tests the Monroe Doctrine to breaking point, not this time but next.

Of course the biggest problem for Germany if WWI breaks out at roughly the same time as otl is that the US is highly likely to join a year or two earlier than otl which bodes poorly indeed for the odds of a German victory