Caution: Many of you might find this proposed background sceniario to be borderline impossible. I understand and agree, but please, let's try focusing on the actual question and not the background.

Background:

During the German occupation of Austria, Hungary sends its army to occupy Burgenland and demands the referendum to have in the area the option to vote for joining Hungary. The demand is accepted by the Germans, and Burgenland miraculously votes to rejoin Hungary.

The Münich Conference and the First Vienna Award happen just like OTL did, but during the German occupation of Czechia, Hungary not only invades Carpatho-Ruthenia, but also Slovakia.

Oddly, the Hungarian boldness impressess Hitler, despite the Hungarian leaderships' visible efforts to disassociate their actions from the Germans'.

Later, WW2 begins, Hungary declares armed neutrality. The war proceeds as OTL, including the Second Vienna Award until the invasion of Yugoslavia. Hungary doesn't sign a treaty of friendship with Yugoslavia TTL, and PM Pál Teleki doesn't commit suicide and remains in position. Hungary attacks Yugoslavia together with Germany, albeit without cooperation between the two, as German troops are not allowed on Hungarian soil. Hungary occupies what it did OTL and also West Banat. Just like OTL, despite the active military action taken by Hungary, the Allies merely freeze the official diplomatic channels with the country.

Under PM Pál Teleki, Hungary doesn't join the invasion of the Soviet Union and continues to build up its military forces. By 1943, the German demands to Hungarian involvement in the war against the Soviets become louder and louder, but Horthy manages to personally convince Hitler, that the Hungarian military still needs a little time before being ready to joining the war and also Hungary being safe from allied bombings is useful to Germany to manufacture war products there safely. This temporarily calms Hitler.

Things change in early 1944 though, when the Soviets approach the Romanian borders and threaten to cut off the direct German connection to the Romanian. But since the Hungarians are still unwilling to join the war. Hitler decides to invade Hungary.

In late March the Germans invade Hungary, but unexpectedly heavy resistance greets them. The complete failure of the German intel on Hungarian military strength and preparedness becomes apparent.

In early April, the Soviets reach the Hungarian border at Bukovina. The German forces in Romania are in an uncertain position.

Earlier than OTL Michael I of Romania launches his coup in late April and ejects his country from the war. As a result, the German Southern Front collapses. During the chaos, the Hungarians occupy the entirety of Transylvania, where they remained defensive until this point. The Germans quickly begin the evacuation of all their forces from Romania and the entire Balkans towards Croatia. After the German withdrawal the Yugoslav partisans quickly take over in most of the former Yugoslavia, but Osijek, Vukovar, most of Srem, and also Belgrade comes under Hungarian occupation. Skirmishes between the Hungarians and Yugoslavs become frequent.

Meanwhile, the Allied landing in Normandy further divides the German forces, taking pressure off Hungary, who's forces successfully resisted the German forces first at the Leitha and Morava rivers, then at the Raab-Danube-Little Carpathians line.

Ultimately, the war in Europe ends in late April, 1945. The Hungarians forces in the last months occupy Vienna, Graz and most of Moravia.


The question is:

Now what?

Note: Conferences, diplomatic communications and such even from during the war can be discussed.

I'm very eager to hear your opinions!
 
The Hungarian army was worse than the Italian army, and being that bad took a dedicated effort and hard training (or lack thereof). You'd need to actually have reasons for the Hungarian military actually being competent beyond 'because'.

There's not the money, the industry to support a 'competent' army, and if they tried anything by 1944 you'd be matching them as largely inexperienced troops and untested kit against the hordes of T-34's, T-34-85s and IS-1's the Soviets have who now are lavishly equipped with trucks and the like from the West to do deep battle. If the Hungarians tried to stop that, they'd get their teeth kicked in.
 

Deleted member 1487

You're also forgetting that the Hungarian economy was entirely dependent on Germany, so if they want something they could simply embargo Hungary until they agree. No way in hell would Germany ever tolerate Hungarian occupation of Slovakia either. There is zero chance this TL is possible without ASB.
 
Caution: Many of you might find this proposed background sceniario to be borderline impossible. I understand and agree, but please, let's try focusing on the actual question and not the background.

The main problem is that when the premise is based on handvavium and tons of pure wank, it becomes very hard to predict future courses. People react to events and change their ways all the time, these kinds of premises make that into a slippery dance where everything can be correct (or not).

Now what?

Note: Conferences, diplomatic communications and such even from during the war can be discussed.

I'm very eager to hear your opinions!

Hungary gets almost everything she wanted since 1918 and then some, becoming a strong regional power, because if they got that far, who would want to eject them from the occupations? If the handvavium spell breaks, then a Soviet-led coalition will come down, and annihilate Hungary; if it doesn't, the USSR will grudgingly respect the Stronk Hungary and their gains. At most, they'd be forced to give up the Austrian lands and any Serbian lands beyond the ethnically Hungarian ones.
 
The Hungarian army was worse than the Italian army, and being that bad took a dedicated effort and hard training (or lack thereof). You'd need to actually have reasons for the Hungarian military actually being competent beyond 'because'.
Maybe an earlier Bled Agreement? Or just Hungary disregard the military restrictions when the German remilitarize the Rheinland? Tank and plane development could begin earlier that way. The base could be Swedish licenses like OTL. After the invasion of Czechoslovakia, the Czechoslovak technology could also become available.
There's not the money, the industry to support a 'competent' army, and if they tried anything by 1944 you'd be matching them as largely inexperienced troops and untested kit against the hordes of T-34's, T-34-85s and IS-1's the Soviets have who now are lavishly equipped with trucks and the like from the West to do deep battle. If the Hungarians tried to stop that, they'd get their teeth kicked in.
The troop inexperience could be a problem, but imo the industry and the money was there, especially in this sceniario, when a lot of territory was reclaimed. The war with Slovakia (and with Yugoslavia to some extent) could give some experience mayb.
You're also forgetting that the Hungarian economy was entirely dependent on Germany, so if they want something they could simply embargo Hungary until they agree.
But a neutral Hungary could be useful for German war production imo. No need to worry about Allied bombings. Also the Hungarians could steal the German technology, which could be useful.
No way in hell would Germany ever tolerate Hungarian occupation of Slovakia either.
You think so? Why?
slippery dance where everything can be correct (or not).
That's not that big of a problem imo. People can get creative.
Hungary gets almost everything she wanted since 1918 and then some, becoming a strong regional power, because if they got that far, who would want to eject them from the occupations?
So Hungary could get an occupation zone in this case? I mean in Austria, not Germany ofcourse. Could the Soviets tolerate not getting an occupation zone in Austria? Could they be compensated?
If the handvavium spell breaks, then a Soviet-led coalition will come down, and annihilate Hungary;
Why would Hungary be invaded? Yeah, they collaborated with the Germans, but so did the Soviets. Imo invading them would be a blow to the Soviet claims of their new possessions. Not that they could be persuaded to relinquish them, but still.
if it doesn't, the USSR will grudgingly respect the Stronk Hungary and their gains. At most, they'd be forced to give up the Austrian lands and any Serbian lands beyond the ethnically Hungarian ones.
I'm thinking about the Hungarian-Yugoslav conflict being one of the first sparks of the Cold War. A proxy war between the Soviets and the West or something.


Also, Churchill had the vague idea of a restored Austria-Hungary to be a strong bulwark against the growing Soviet power. Meanwhile, Otto von Habsburg was a close associate of Roosevelt. The two might not be in power at the end of the war, but could maybe something be realised from the idea?
 

Deleted member 1487

But a neutral Hungary could be useful for German war production imo. No need to worry about Allied bombings. Also the Hungarians could steal the German technology, which could be useful.
How would it be any more so than one involved in the war? Allied bombings didn't touch Hungary until 1944 and then nothing was safe. Why would Germany want Hungary in a position to steal any of their tech?

You think so? Why?
Because it was a German resource farm and easily controlled and Hitler did not like the small states acting against orders.
 
How would it be any more so than one involved in the war? Allied bombings didn't touch Hungary until 1944 and then nothing was safe. Why would Germany want Hungary in a position to steal any of their tech?
Well, okay, those are sound arguments. I'm not a huge expert in the field, so please help me come up with something atleast narrowly feasible.
Because it was a German resource farm and easily controlled and Hitler did not like the small states acting against orders.
If it's invaded, then it doesn't become a German resource farm in the first place. Also, we're speakin about pre-war here, the Germans would be less concerned about such war.

Could maybe a some kind of respect develop in Hitler towards Horthy or the boldness of the Hungarian actions? That could maybe allow Hungary to get off the hook more often, than reasonable.
 
My threads are really not popular ^^"
Why? We respond. ;) I have seen posts which didn’t get single one.

Thing is Slovaks in March war put down resistance in what we call Little War. How would be Hungary able to grab whole Slovakia? Even with the state new Slovak army was it would be very difficult.

Option would be if Hungarians somehow convinced Slovaks to join with them. But how? Slovaks had much more cultural as well as local political autonomy in pre war Czechoslovakia then they ever had in Hungary. One of PMs was Slovak.

So what Hungary needs to promise so Tiso jump in bad with Budapest in March 14th 1939? Autonomy? Slovaks had it before and now already have it on the paper. They are pushing towards independence. Federation? Personal Union? How? Hungary is kingdom and Slovakia (or its territory) was last time Principality some 1000 years ago and parts of it territory were Duchy maybe in 1200 latest.

I do have scenerio for you.

1918 Hungary change its policy towards Slovaks as long term policy to regain Slovakia
- some 200-500K Slovaks still living in Hungary post WWI (numbers vary 500K number is from census as “able to speak Slovak I believe) gain huge cultural autonomy which is maintained
- policy towards Czechoslovakia is not directly friendly but friendly towards Slovaks and Hungarians there
- Munich come, Czechoslovakia is fighting but loosing due to not suppor commin from France
- as Czechoslovak troops retreat to Slovak Moravian border Budapest starts to negotiate incorporation of Slovakia and “protection” from Germany. Autonomy or Federal status is promised as well as few Slovaks in Hungarian government (Ministey of Health, Agriculture and similar)
- Czechs are either offered internation, release to any country they can find their way etc.
- Hungary gains factories as well as material of Czechoslovak army on territory of Slovakia, some 300-400 k men with war experience (Slovaks, Ruthenians as well as Hungarians plus factories in Vah volley manufacturing artillery and small arms. It is even possible with war actually happening more factories will be evacuated . Avia, CKD. Some were evacuated partially OTL but returned after Munich.
- Hungary (or Slovakia) as part of the deal gains part of Czechoslovak gold which was evacuated to Slovakia. Let say some 40 tons?
-Germany greatly weakened by “war which came early” is not able to do much about it.
- Poland and Hungary now have common border. Poland doesn’t press issue on some minor adjustments with Slovakia which greatly offended Slovaks OTL
- Hungarian kingdom and Poland form alliance due to historical ties. Poland and Romania are already allied against USSR and Slovak Romanian relationship was good OTL. Poland will try to negotiate improvement in Romanian-Hungarian relation in order to form greater alliance. But what would Romania and Hungary needs to do to actually achieve that?
 
You think so? Why?
Long common border between Hungary and Poland.
Also Germany was interested in Skoda and Zbrojovka factories in Slovakia.

Also having Slovakia as its client state was allowing to put some pressure on Hungary. Slovakia was still hoping Hungarians will somehow piss off Germans and Slovaks would be able to regain lost territories. ;)
Heck, they were hoping in spring 1944 Slovakia would be able to regain them. You know, operation Margarethe?
 
Any Hungary trying to hold onto Yugoslavian territory will have the Red Army and really motivated Partizans to contend with.
 

Gremlin

Banned
The problem with the OP is that Hungary invading/occupying other countries at the same exact moment as Nazi Germany can't be washed away with claims of non-cooperation, protecting inhabitants rights and not at all being the Jackal of the Balkans.

The Soviets could get away with this in Poland because they are a 'first-class' nation, flank power or danger to other interests. Hungary can't and when the Soviets arrive on the borders they are going to 'ask' for transit rights which puts the Red Army in the country and the allied conferences are going to decide that Hungary will be compelled to return to her pre-war borders.

The big winner will be the Soviets as they will be seen by the Slovaks, Romanian and Yugoslav populations as returning and guaranteeing their historic lands.
 
That's not that big of a problem imo. People can get creative.

We are talking alternate history, not creative writing. Else we get pearls such as:

So Hungary could get an occupation zone in this case? I mean in Austria, not Germany ofcourse. Could the Soviets tolerate not getting an occupation zone in Austria? Could they be compensated?

Why would Hungary be invaded? Yeah, they collaborated with the Germans, but so did the Soviets. Imo invading them would be a blow to the Soviet claims of their new possessions. Not that they could be persuaded to relinquish them, but still.

You really don't understand how pissing off everybody for even a regional Power is untenable, and wonder why would they all gang up on said nation as soon as possible? Even believing that the Soviets helping those new possessions recover what is, to them, stolen territory would harm them?
 

Gremlin

Banned
A possible chance for a 'greater' Hungary......

Have them pretty much do all of the above but when the tides have turned on the Eastern Front............communist revolution in Hungary.

They need to go full on pro-soviet and help speed the path of the Red Army into Germany. Despite being essentially a puppet they might be able to hold onto the land taken from the Austrians and Romanians (if they switch before the Romanians do) and maybe from Yugoslavia if Tito is as in OTL not particularly willing to bend to Stalin.

Hungary would then be somewhat dependent on the Red Army for security from its aggrieved neighbours and might be able to exist in its larger form as a counterweight and threat to Yugoslavia.
 

Zen9

Banned
A counterweight to both Yugoslavia and Romania, being Stalin's proxy to Tito and Ceaucescu's egos could secure their gains during WWII. Especially those that cover ethnically Hungarian majority lands.
Plus Stalin might march ethnic Germans off to Siberia.
 
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